Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic consumption as a strategic foundation for building a strong domestic market and transitioning to a high-quality development model driven by domestic demand [1] Group 1: Consumption Scene Integration - The plan highlights the need to expand service consumption by relaxing access and promoting business model integration, targeting the structural shift from single to multi-layered consumption [2] - The concept of "ticket economy" illustrates the transformation of traditional transactions into comprehensive service experiences, significantly enhancing local consumption [2] - The integration of tourism and local life is evolving, with tourists seeking not only attractions but also local experiences, reflecting the plan's directive to lead new supply with new demand [3] Group 2: Supply Innovation - Continuous improvement in consumption is linked to profound changes on the supply side, with the plan calling for the expansion of quality consumer goods and services [4] - Companies like Chongqing Beer are innovating across product categories and marketing channels to adapt to changing consumer habits and uncover new growth points [4] - The focus on health and personalization in consumer trends drives deeper innovation in technology and value creation, as seen in companies like Minsheng Health and Jiangnan Buyi [4][5] Group 3: Collaborative Ecosystem Development - A healthy and trustworthy consumption ecosystem is essential for enhancing consumer confidence, as outlined in the plan's recommendations for improving consumer rights protection and promoting paid leave [7] - Digital platforms play a crucial role in reducing information search costs and enhancing consumer experience through efficient decision-making tools [7] - Building long-term trust with consumers is vital for companies, with strategies like "omni-channel retail" ensuring consistent service across all consumer touchpoints [7] Group 4: Macro-Level Support - The foundation for consumer confidence lies in macro-level institutional improvements and income expectations, emphasizing the need for a supportive mechanism for consumption growth [8] - The plan's focus on employment, income growth, and optimizing social security systems aligns with the goal of addressing consumer concerns about spending [8] - A collaborative effort among policies, technology platforms, and corporate integrity is essential to create a reassuring consumption environment, which is key to unlocking current consumption potential [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate has taken a crucial step towards ending a record-long government shutdown, with moderate Democrats breaking party leadership's blockade to support a deal [1] - The Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the bill with a vote of 60 to 40, but the final vote timing remains uncertain [1] - The agreement framework includes full-year budgets for the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Congress itself, while funding for other government departments will be maintained until January 30 [1][2] Group 2 - The bill will retroactively pay salaries to furloughed government employees, restore federal funding to state and local governments, and rehire federal employees laid off during the shutdown [1] - The outcome of the government shutdown remains uncertain, as any senator can delay proceedings, and the House of Representatives must also approve the bill [1][2] - House Speaker Mike Johnson indicated that he would notify members two days in advance for a vote, while Trump expressed optimism about the shutdown nearing an end [1] Group 3 - The ongoing shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of about $15 billion per week, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a 1.5 percentage point reduction in annualized GDP growth rate by mid-November [5] - Consumer confidence has dropped to a three-year low due to anxiety over the shutdown, inflation, and rising unemployment [5] - The bill, if passed, would limit the sale of intoxicating cannabis products, potentially benefiting the beer industry, while the cannabis industry claims this regulation could jeopardize 325,000 jobs [5]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown is nearing an end as moderate Democratic senators agree to support a deal to restart the government and fund certain departments for the entire year [2][3] - The agreement includes full-year budgets for the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Congress itself, while funding for other agencies will continue until January 30 [2] - The bill will retroactively pay salaries to furloughed government employees, restore federal funding to state and local governments, and recall employees laid off during the shutdown [2] Legislative Process - The Senate is set to hold a procedural test vote, and if it passes, a full Senate vote will be required to quickly end the shutdown [3] - The House of Representatives must also pass the bill to restart government operations, with Speaker Mike Johnson indicating that he will notify members two days in advance for a vote [4] Political Dynamics - President Trump expressed optimism about the shutdown ending, while Senator Tim Kaine emphasized the bill's prohibition on new federal layoffs before January 30 [5] - The House Democrats, led by Hakeem Jeffries, plan to oppose the Republican bill, indicating a continuation of partisan tensions [6] - The ongoing negotiations reflect a pattern where parties attempt to leverage government shutdowns for policy victories, which historically have not succeeded [6] Budgetary Implications - The Democrats have previously rejected a clean temporary spending bill that would have kept departments running until November 21 [7] - The Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stated opposition to the current agreement, advocating for an extension of the soon-to-expire Obamacare tax credits [7] - The Republican strategy has pressured Senate Democrats into compromise, although they still need bipartisan support to end debate on the spending bill [7] Economic Impact - The shutdown is causing an estimated loss of $15 billion per week to the U.S. economy, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a 1.5 percentage point reduction in annualized GDP growth rate due to the shutdown [9] - The halt in government data releases is complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to address ongoing inflation and rising unemployment [10] Outcomes of the Agreement - The proposed spending bill includes some Democratic wins, such as blocking cuts to international food aid and increasing security budgets for Congress [11] - If passed, the bill will restrict the sale of intoxicating cannabis products, potentially benefiting the beer industry, while the cannabis industry claims this could jeopardize 325,000 jobs [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On August 28, the overall capital market showed a complex trend with the stock market strongly rebounding, the bond market under pressure and weakening, the convertible bond market's main indexes rising collectively but most individual convertible bonds falling, and the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverging while the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally declining [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Development of Cities" was released, aiming to establish a sustainable urban construction and operation investment and financing system by 2030 and basically build a modern people - centered city by 2035 [3]. - In July 2025, the total issuance of local government bonds was 1.2135 trillion yuan, and the balance of local government debt at the end of July was 52.7627 trillion yuan [4]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation promoted the return of market competition to a benign and orderly track [5]. - From January to July 2025, the total social logistics volume exceeded 200 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [6]. - **International News** - The annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3%, mainly driven by business investment [7]. - **Commodities** - On August 28, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices continued to rise [8]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On August 28, the central bank conducted 416.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net capital injection of 163.1 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates** - On August 28, the capital market was generally balanced and loose. DR001 decreased by 0.11bp to 1.313%, and DR007 increased by 2.72bp to 1.540% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - On August 28, the bond market was under pressure and weakened. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose by 2.50bp to 1.7900%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 rose by 3.35bp to 1.8875% [13]. - Information on bond tenders is provided, including the issuance scale, winning bid yield, and other data of multiple bonds [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - One industrial bond's trading price deviated by more than 10%, with "H1 Bidi 03" rising by more than 104% [15]. - Multiple companies, including Qingdao Beer Group, Weihai Thermal Power Group, and HeSteel Group, cancelled bond issuances due to market fluctuations [16]. - Huaxia Bank's operating income in the first half of the year was 45.522 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.86%, and its net profit was 11.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% [16]. - **Convertible Bonds** - On August 28, the three major A - share stock indexes rose collectively, and the main indexes of the convertible bond market also rose. The convertible bond market's trading volume was 122.512 billion yuan, an increase of 3.217 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17]. - Jinchengxin's convertible bond issuance obtained the CSRC's registration approval [18]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - On August 28, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverged, with the 2 - year yield rising by 2bp to 3.62% and the 10 - year yield falling by 2bp to 4.22% [20]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally declined, except for Germany's which rose by 1bp to 2.70% [23]. - Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds is provided, including the price changes of bonds of multiple companies [25].