当地时间13日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发言人表示，IMF已察觉到美国经济出现疲软迹象。受到政 府"停摆"的部分影响，预计美国第四季度GDP增速将低于此前IMF预测的1.9%。但由于"停摆"导致数据 匮乏，IMF评估美国经济表现的能力受到影响。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the July prediction, while maintaining the 2026 growth forecast at 3.1% [1] - The report highlights that emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.2% this year, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecast, while developed economies' growth is also adjusted upward to 1.6% [1] - The Asia-Pacific region is projected to contribute approximately 60% to global growth over the next two years, with opportunities arising from a shift towards domestic demand-driven growth [1] Economic Challenges - Global economic growth remains sluggish, with trade policy uncertainty suppressing consumption and investment, alongside rising public debt and increased defense spending [2] - The IMF warns that global public debt is expected to exceed 100% of global GDP by 2029, urging economies to ensure debt sustainability and eliminate trade policy uncertainties [2] - Structural reforms are recommended to boost economic growth prospects, including promoting labor mobility and enhancing investments in the digital economy [2]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes the need for countries to focus on "value for money" in public spending amidst rising global public debt and increasing fiscal pressures [1][2] - The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor Report indicates that global economic growth remains sluggish, with public debt continuing to rise, compounded by increased defense spending, aging populations, and rising interest rates [1] - IMF officials warn that the persistent gap between spending and revenue will exacerbate debt levels, threatening fiscal sustainability [1] Group 1: Global Fiscal Challenges - Countries are urged to optimize spending structures and prioritize expenditures that promote economic growth, such as investments in infrastructure, human capital, and technology research and development [1] - Improving spending efficiency can significantly enhance returns and alleviate fiscal policy dilemmas [1] Group 2: U.S. Fiscal Policy - The IMF highlights that the U.S. fiscal deficit is currently high, with public debt as a percentage of GDP projected to rise from 122% in 2024 to 143% by 2030, significantly above the average for developed economies [2] - Early adjustments to U.S. fiscal policy are recommended to control deficits and debt, ensuring stable economic performance and contributing to global financial stability [2] Group 3: China's Fiscal and Green Energy Policies - The IMF welcomes recent fiscal measures from China, viewing them as beneficial for expanding domestic demand and strengthening the social safety net [2] - China's advancements in wind and solar energy technologies are recognized for significantly reducing global green energy costs, highlighting the country's positive contributions to global sustainability efforts [2]

Core Insights - Ghana has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the fifth review of the Extended Credit Facility, pending approval from the IMF management and board [1] - Upon approval, Ghana is set to receive $385 million in funding [1] Economic Performance - Macroeconomic stability is reportedly taking root, with growth in the first half of 2025 expected to exceed forecasts, driven by strong service sector activity and agricultural output [1] - External trade has significantly improved due to robust exports, particularly in gold and cocoa [1] - International reserves have continued to accumulate beyond the targets set under the Extended Credit Facility [1] Currency and Energy Sector - The local currency, the cedi, has appreciated significantly in the first half of the year [1] - Ghana has made notable progress in addressing long-standing challenges in the energy sector, including renegotiating legacy debts and power purchase agreements with most independent power producers [1] - Electricity prices are now adjusted quarterly to better reflect costs, and payments through the cash waterfall mechanism have increased substantially [1] Fiscal Performance - The primary fiscal surplus for the first eight months of 2025 accounted for 1.1% of GDP, with expectations to achieve a target of 1.5% by year-end [1]

Group 1 - The IMF reported that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to its lowest level in 30 years during Q2, primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations rather than active selling by central banks [1][3] - As of the end of June, the total global foreign exchange reserves amounted to $12.03 trillion, with the dollar's share of allocated reserves at 56.3%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking the lowest level since 1995 [3] - The dollar depreciated significantly in Q2, with declines of 9% against the euro, 11% against the Swiss franc, and 6% against the British pound, influenced by various U.S. economic policies [3] Group 2 - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining support from BRICS nations, which are increasingly moving away from using Western currencies for trade settlements, particularly in energy and commodity transactions [4] - The reduction in reliance on the dollar by major BRICS economies is driven by the weaponization of the dollar for sanctions, prompting businesses to seek alternative payment methods to avoid transaction restrictions and asset freezes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that tariffs are not a solution to global economic imbalances, highlighting the risks associated with excessive trade deficits and surpluses [1][2]. Group 1: Global Economic Assessment - The IMF's 2025 External Sector Report evaluates the trade status of 30 major economies, which account for approximately 90% of global GDP [1]. - In 2024, the global current account balance as a percentage of world GDP is expected to increase significantly by 0.6 percentage points, reversing a trend of narrowing since the 2008-2009 financial crisis [1]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to widen by $228 billion in 2024, reaching $1.13 trillion, indicating macroeconomic imbalances within the U.S. [1]. - The IMF warns that the effectiveness of tariff barriers in improving trade imbalances is minimal, and escalating trade wars could have significant negative impacts on the global macroeconomy [1]. Group 3: Currency and Financial Stability Risks - The rise of protectionism is casting a shadow over global bilateral trade, direct investment, and securities investment flows, potentially leading to a fragmented international monetary system and increased financial volatility [2]. - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by 8% since January, marking the largest semi-annual decline since 1973, raising concerns about currency risk [2]. - The IMF acknowledges that while the dollar will maintain its dominant position, recent trade tensions and rising U.S. debt levels may prompt global investors to reassess their exposure to dollar risks [2]. - The emergence of stablecoins, particularly dollar-backed stablecoins, could reinforce the dollar's dominance but also pose financial stability risks [2].

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a total funding support of $200 million (approximately 833 million kina) for Papua New Guinea (PNG) under its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) [1] - Approximately $172 million (716 million kina) will be disbursed following the completion of the fourth review of the ECF/EFF [1] - The IMF also completed the first review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), approving about $28 million (approximately 116.6 million kina) to support PNG in addressing long-term structural vulnerabilities related to climate change [1] Group 2 - The total financing provided by the IMF to PNG has reached $655 million (approximately 2.7 billion kina) [1] - The ECF/EFF arrangement approved on March 22, 2023, totals 684 million Special Drawing Rights (approximately 4.03 billion kina) aimed at alleviating foreign exchange shortages and supporting structural reforms [1] - The RSF arrangement approved on December 11, 2024, totals 197 million Special Drawing Rights (approximately 1.16 billion kina), specifically addressing long-term international balance of payments risks due to climate change [1] Group 3 - The IMF maintains an optimistic economic outlook for PNG, projecting a growth rate of 4.7% in 2025, driven by strong performance in the resource sector and resilient development in the non-resource sector supported by exchange rate improvements [2] - Inflation is expected to rise from a low in 2024 to 4.8%, with core inflation slightly increasing to 4% [2] - In the medium term, economic growth is expected to stabilize above 3%, with inflation around 4.5% [2] Group 4 - The IMF warns of significant downside risks to PNG's economy, which is vulnerable to domestic and external shocks, governance bottlenecks, and social-political fragility [2] - Global risks such as commodity price fluctuations, geopolitical conflicts, and trade barriers may exacerbate inflationary pressures [2] - However, the initiation of large resource projects could significantly enhance exports and fiscal revenues in the medium term [2]