国际货币基金组织（IMF）周三表示，今年第二季度，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比降至三十年来的最低水 平，这一变化主要受汇率波动影响，而非各国央行主动抛售。 2025年上半年，美元兑主要货币下跌超过10%，创下1973年以来最糟糕的开局表现。这一创纪录的下跌与美 元作为传统避险资产的角色形成了鲜明对比，引发市场对美元汇率走势的关注。 2022年，俄罗斯多家金融机构被切断与西方金融体系的联系后，加快了脱离美元和欧元的步伐，开始使用本 国货币与国际伙伴进行贸易往来。 这一趋势得到金砖国家的日益支持，这些国家已逐步不再使用西方货币进行贸易结算，在能源、矿产等大宗 商品交易中积极推进本币结算机制。 报告显示，4月至6月期间，美元占已分配外汇储备的比例为56.3%，较上一季度下降1.5个百分点，创下1995 年以来的最低纪录。截至6月底，全球外汇储备总额为12.03万亿美元。 金砖国家主要经济体减少对美元依赖的重要原因在于，美元被武器化用于制裁，迫使企业不得不寻找替代支 付方式，以规避交易受限和资产冻结等风险，这种基于现实需求的调整进一步推动了去美元化进程的发展。 IMF研究人员格伦·昆德、艾琳·内菲和卡洛斯·桑切斯-穆尼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that tariffs are not a solution to global economic imbalances, highlighting the risks associated with excessive trade deficits and surpluses [1][2]. Group 1: Global Economic Assessment - The IMF's 2025 External Sector Report evaluates the trade status of 30 major economies, which account for approximately 90% of global GDP [1]. - In 2024, the global current account balance as a percentage of world GDP is expected to increase significantly by 0.6 percentage points, reversing a trend of narrowing since the 2008-2009 financial crisis [1]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to widen by $228 billion in 2024, reaching $1.13 trillion, indicating macroeconomic imbalances within the U.S. [1]. - The IMF warns that the effectiveness of tariff barriers in improving trade imbalances is minimal, and escalating trade wars could have significant negative impacts on the global macroeconomy [1]. Group 3: Currency and Financial Stability Risks - The rise of protectionism is casting a shadow over global bilateral trade, direct investment, and securities investment flows, potentially leading to a fragmented international monetary system and increased financial volatility [2]. - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by 8% since January, marking the largest semi-annual decline since 1973, raising concerns about currency risk [2]. - The IMF acknowledges that while the dollar will maintain its dominant position, recent trade tensions and rising U.S. debt levels may prompt global investors to reassess their exposure to dollar risks [2]. - The emergence of stablecoins, particularly dollar-backed stablecoins, could reinforce the dollar's dominance but also pose financial stability risks [2].

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a total funding support of $200 million (approximately 833 million kina) for Papua New Guinea (PNG) under its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) [1] - Approximately $172 million (716 million kina) will be disbursed following the completion of the fourth review of the ECF/EFF [1] - The IMF also completed the first review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), approving about $28 million (approximately 116.6 million kina) to support PNG in addressing long-term structural vulnerabilities related to climate change [1] Group 2 - The total financing provided by the IMF to PNG has reached $655 million (approximately 2.7 billion kina) [1] - The ECF/EFF arrangement approved on March 22, 2023, totals 684 million Special Drawing Rights (approximately 4.03 billion kina) aimed at alleviating foreign exchange shortages and supporting structural reforms [1] - The RSF arrangement approved on December 11, 2024, totals 197 million Special Drawing Rights (approximately 1.16 billion kina), specifically addressing long-term international balance of payments risks due to climate change [1] Group 3 - The IMF maintains an optimistic economic outlook for PNG, projecting a growth rate of 4.7% in 2025, driven by strong performance in the resource sector and resilient development in the non-resource sector supported by exchange rate improvements [2] - Inflation is expected to rise from a low in 2024 to 4.8%, with core inflation slightly increasing to 4% [2] - In the medium term, economic growth is expected to stabilize above 3%, with inflation around 4.5% [2] Group 4 - The IMF warns of significant downside risks to PNG's economy, which is vulnerable to domestic and external shocks, governance bottlenecks, and social-political fragility [2] - Global risks such as commodity price fluctuations, geopolitical conflicts, and trade barriers may exacerbate inflationary pressures [2] - However, the initiation of large resource projects could significantly enhance exports and fiscal revenues in the medium term [2]