Core Insights - The land auction market in first and second-tier cities has shown significant warming in the first half of 2025, with both transaction area and land transfer fees increasing year-on-year [1][5] - Despite a decrease in the total area of residential land transactions, the land transfer fees have increased by over 27% year-on-year, indicating a concentration of investment in core cities [1][2] Summary by Sections Land Transfer Fees - In the first half of 2025, the total land transfer fees for various types of land in 300 cities reached 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [2] - Residential land transfer fees amounted to 860 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.5% [2] Transaction Area and Premium Rates - The average premium rate for residential land in 300 cities was 10.2%, an increase of 6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The average premium rate for operational land rose to 9.2%, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Dynamics - The top 20 cities accounted for approximately 68% of the total residential land transfer fees, with cities like Hangzhou and Beijing exceeding 100 billion yuan in fees [4][5] - In the first half of 2025, first-tier cities saw a 20.9% increase in residential land transaction area and a 49.5% increase in land transfer fees, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.3% increase in area and a 43.5% increase in fees [5] Regional Variations - The land auction market has become increasingly polarized, with first and second-tier cities showing recovery in transaction area and fees, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced declines [5][6] - Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu exhibited high auction activity, with average premium rates exceeding 20%, and Hangzhou reaching 35.5% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The land transfer fees rebounded in the first half of 2025 after four years of decline, with significant differentiation among cities. The core cities increased the supply of high - quality land, attracting market - oriented real estate enterprises to bid, which is expected to boost the real estate sales volume at the end of the year. The supply of land in core cities may decrease in the second half of the year, and the market - oriented real estate enterprises' land - acquisition scale may decline, while the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies may increase [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First half of the year: Land transfer fees rebounded and cities were highly differentiated - After reaching a peak of 8.2 trillion yuan in 2020, the land transfer fees decreased for four consecutive years. From January to June 2025, they reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The rebound was mainly due to core cities increasing the supply of core land plots and the cancellation of price - limit policies, leading to high - premium competition among developers [5]. - The concentration of land auction amounts in key cities increased. The top 3, top 5, and top 15 cities in terms of transfer fees accounted for about 1/4, 1/3, and 1/2 of the national market share respectively, 6 - 9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][5]. - Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu stood out with high transfer fees and premium rates. After excluding these four cities, the transfer fees from January to June increased by only 0.4% year - on - year. After excluding the top 15 cities, the transfer fees decreased by 6% [1][14]. - Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Sichuan had relatively good land auction performances. Zhejiang, Beijing, and Shanghai had strong market - oriented land - acquisition forces, with transfer fees ranging from 700 billion to 220 billion yuan from January to June, year - on - year growth rates exceeding 20%, and the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies below 20%. Guangdong and Sichuan had transfer fees between 650 billion and 800 billion yuan, year - on - year growth rates exceeding 40%, and the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies between 20 - 40%. Nearly half of the provinces and cities had weak land markets, with 14 provinces and cities experiencing negative year - on - year growth in transfer fees, and 4 provinces (Jiangxi, Jilin, Shaanxi, Shandong) having a decline of over 25% [14]. 3.2 Second half of the year: The land supply in core cities may weaken, focus on Shanghai's July land auction - In July 2025, the starting price of land supply was 214.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 29%, indicating a weakening of overall land supply. The month - on - month decline in supply suggests that the transfer fees in July will likely be negative, but the year - on - year figure may be flat or have a minimum decline of 11% [2][18]. - In terms of high - value land plots (starting price over 2 billion yuan), most were concentrated in Shanghai in July. The starting price of Shanghai's land supply in July increased by 156% year - on - year and 18% month - on - month, involving prime locations such as Nanjing West Road and North Bund. It is expected that the land auction in Shanghai will remain hot in July. There was also one high - value land plot each in Suzhou and Hangzhou, with starting prices of 4.3 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan respectively [2][19]. - This year, the land supply in core cities may follow a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half. Market - oriented real estate enterprises may reduce their land - acquisition scale in the second half, while urban investment companies may enter the land auction market in non - core cities. According to historical data since 2021, the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies usually rises in the fourth quarter, especially from November to December, reaching over 60% on average and over 80% in some third - and fourth - tier cities [2][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the residential land auction in Hangzhou during the first half of the year, indicating a robust real estate market recovery and investor confidence in the region [1] Group 1 - On June 27, Hangzhou held its final land auction for the first half of the year, offering 6 residential plots with a total starting price of 11.59 billion yuan, ultimately raising 15.1 billion yuan [1] - The average premium rate for the auction reached 30.5%, with the highest premium rate hitting 67.6% [1] - According to the China Index Academy, the total revenue from residential land auctions in Hangzhou for the first half of the year amounted to 116 billion yuan, nearing the total revenue for the entire previous year, which was 116.9 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, 20 key cities plan to auction 127 plots of residential land with a total starting price of 107.1 billion yuan, indicating a significant activity in the real estate market [1]. Group 1: Land Auction Plans - Four cities have a starting price exceeding 10 billion yuan this month: Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Tianjin [1]. - Notable single-day auctions exceeding 5 billion yuan are scheduled in Beijing (June 4, 5), Xiamen (June 20), Hangzhou (June 27), Guangzhou (June 30), and Tianjin (June 30) [1]. Group 2: Auction Data Summary - The auction data includes various cities with specific dates and amounts, showcasing the competitive nature of land sales in different regions [2]. - For instance, in Changsha on June 19, the auction raised 4.13 billion yuan, while in Qingdao on June 17, it raised 29.19 billion yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming land auction in Bengbu on June 11, featuring three residential land plots totaling 224 acres, is a significant event that reflects the city's future development trajectory and serves as a barometer for investment opportunities in the region [1] Group 1: Location Advantage - Bengbu's transportation advantage is highlighted as a key factor, being a junction for the Beijing-Shanghai and Beijing-Fuzhou high-speed railways, with plans for additional rail connections enhancing its status as a core hub in East China [2][4] - Specific plots, such as the Zhongchuang District and the original Dayu School site, are strategically located within the high-speed rail influence zone, making them prime residential areas for future development [2] Group 2: Industrial Growth - The industrial landscape in Bengbu is entering a "golden period," focusing on four major trillion-yuan industry clusters: new energy, new displays, smart sensing, and bio-chemicals, with 210 new projects expected in 2024 alone, projected to generate over 70 billion yuan in output [4][5] - The establishment of the China Sensing Valley, which is set to attract thousands of high-tech talents, further emphasizes the region's industrial potential [4] Group 3: Ecological Benefits - The planning for the Huaihe River Ecological Town Belt aims to enhance the city's livability, with over 90% of the ecological shoreline being preserved, and the development of parks and open spaces along the river [8][11] - Specific plots, such as the original Xin Huangshan Glass Factory site, are positioned within this ecological belt, offering low-density residential options with scenic views [8] Group 4: Policy Support - Bengbu is recognized as a central city in Northern Anhui, benefiting from three national-level platforms, including the China (Anhui) Free Trade Pilot Zone, which focuses on new materials and offers favorable tax and land policies [12][15] - The city aims to achieve a GDP growth target of 5.4% and a fixed asset investment growth of 4% by 2035, with the auctioned plots located in key areas that will benefit from comprehensive policy support [15] Group 5: Investment Logic - The combination of transportation hubs and industrial population growth is expected to yield significant returns, particularly in high-speed rail-adjacent areas [16] - Low-density ecological developments are anticipated to become market favorites due to their scarcity and potential for high appreciation [16] - Areas benefiting from policy support, such as the Free Trade Zone and Sensing Valley, are expected to have strong resilience against market risks [17]

Core Insights - The recent land auction results in Shanghai reveal a stark contrast between the performance of two plots: the Hongkou District North Bund plot sold at the base price, while the Yangpu District East Bund plot attracted intense bidding, setting a new record for the area [1][3] - This disparity raises questions about whether the myth of location is being challenged, as the North Bund plot, despite its advantageous location and amenities, faced a lack of interest from developers [1][3] Land Auction Analysis - The North Bund plot's residential component is not the focus; commercial development is key. However, the lack of a substantial commercial sector in Hongkou limits the synergistic effects, dampening developer enthusiasm [1] - In contrast, the East Bund plot, despite its shortcomings, is part of a designated urban core in Shanghai, with plans for significant development in business, culture, and ecological living [3] - The Yangpu District government has introduced housing subsidies for quality content creators in the internet sector, enhancing the area's attractiveness [3] Market Dynamics - The sales atmosphere in the East Bund area is robust, with high absorption rates for new developments, indicating ongoing demand for upgrades in the region [3] - The North Bund area, while facing limited residential land supply, will encounter direct competition from surrounding projects in the future [3] - The outcomes of the land auction illustrate that factors such as regional development plans, policy support, and market demand collectively influence land value, rather than location alone [3]