在2025年深秋，中美高层通话不到24小时，美国财政部长贝森特就对媒体透露出一项重大消息：中美已 经在农业领域达成了一项共识。根据这项协议，中国将在未来三年半内购买高达8750万吨的美国大豆。 三年前，美国对中国脱钩的呼声震天响，特朗普更是通过推特和演讲威胁要让全球跟随美国断供中国。 然而到了2025年，特朗普的任期仅剩三年多时，局势却发生了转变，美国反而率先在这一问题上做出了 让步。 特朗普此次访华看似是为了促进中美友好，实际上却是在急于通过达成协议来给自己在国内选民面前交 差，尤其是农业州的选票。特朗普在农业问题上的立场经历了多次变化，早期他曾表示要让中国为美国 农业买单，后来又承诺不会让农民受到伤害。然而事实却是，美国的大豆出口中断了三年，农民们损失 惨重，补贴也无法弥补这些损失。如今，他试图通过这份大豆协议来证明自己为美国农民争取了利益。 但中国方面显然对此保持谨慎，明确表示合作是可以的，但必须是实质性的合作，而不是空口号。 这次特朗普的双访安排其实是一种审查式会晤。中国的态度十分清楚：如果特朗普是来真诚合作的，欢 迎谈判；如果只是为了选举目的找借口，单纯的政治秀，中国则不会给面子。换句话说，中方已经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges in regaining its market share in China, as recent trade tensions have led to a substantial decline in soybean exports to China, with U.S. farmers expressing concerns about their market security and the need for a stable political environment to restore trust [1][3][19]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - In 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China dropped to 200 million bushels in the first eight months, a decrease of 80% compared to nearly 1 billion bushels in the same period of 2024 [3]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that as of September, there were 316 million bushels of soybeans in U.S. storage, indicating a surplus that many farmers are struggling to sell [3]. - Brazil has significantly increased its soybean exports to China, reaching over 100 million tons in 2025, marking a historical high, while Argentina is also making efforts to capture the market by eliminating export tariffs [8][10]. Group 2: U.S. Soybean Farmers' Perspectives - U.S. farmers are aware that they are not irreplaceable in the market, as China can easily shift its orders to Brazil, Argentina, or even Russia if U.S.-China relations deteriorate [6]. - Farmers like Darin Johnson from Minnesota highlight the logistical challenges of soybean production, emphasizing that even if China were to place orders now, they would not be able to fulfill them in time for the current harvest [5]. - The recent participation of the U.S. Soybean Export Council in the China International Import Expo indicates a proactive approach to re-establishing trade relations, with efforts to secure contracts and partnerships [11]. Group 3: Political and Strategic Considerations - The fluctuating nature of U.S.-China trade relations has made agricultural products, particularly soybeans, vulnerable to political changes, leading to a lack of trust from Chinese buyers [15][19]. - U.S. soybean industry leaders express anxiety about the sustainability of recent agreements, recognizing that long-term market access depends on stable political policies and reliable trade practices [15][20]. - The sentiment among U.S. soybean exporters is that regaining priority in China's market is not solely about pricing or production levels, but rather about establishing a trustworthy and consistent partnership [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of U.S.-China agricultural cooperation, particularly in soybean trade, highlighting the challenges faced by U.S. farmers due to tariffs and market dynamics [2][5][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Agricultural Cooperation - The U.S. Soybean Export Council CEO emphasizes the natural synergy between the U.S. and China in agricultural trade, particularly in soybeans, due to China's large market and rapid development [2][5]. - Historical cooperation in agriculture between the U.S. and China dates back 43 years, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing agricultural modernization and technology transfer [5][6]. - The establishment of the U.S.-China Soybean Product Application Value Chain Innovation Center in Zhengzhou is seen as a platform for deepening cooperation [5]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Economic Impact - In 2024, soybean exports from the U.S. are projected to reach $24.58 billion, accounting for 14% of total agricultural exports, with China purchasing over $12.64 billion worth of soybeans [5]. - The U.S. soybean market has faced significant challenges, with a 58% drop in imports from the U.S. to China in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [5]. - The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing increased bankruptcy rates, with a 57% rise in farm bankruptcies in the first half of the year, attributed to the impacts of tariff policies [5][6]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Future Outlook - U.S. farmers are facing rising production costs, with soybean planting costs increasing nearly 50% since 2019, and current selling prices leading to significant losses [10]. - The article notes that U.S. farmers are concerned about climate change, which is affecting crop yields and weather patterns, further complicating their situation [10]. - The future market share of U.S. soybeans in China is expected to stabilize between 30% to 40%, down from over 50% during peak periods, indicating a cautious outlook for recovery [10][11].

2023年4月，中美大豆产品应用价值链创新中心在河南省郑州市落地。苏健认为，在基于40多年来中美 大豆产业合作的经验和成功基础之上建立的创新中心，为中美两国大豆产业的深化合作创造了更好的平 台和机会。 大豆对于美国农业及农产品出口至关重要。根据美国农业部的数据，2024年大豆以245.8亿美元的出口 额位居美国农产品出口首位，占农产品出口总额的14%。2024年，中国购买了价值126.4亿美元的大 豆，占美国大豆出口总额一半以上。 苏健说："美国的农民非常沮丧、非常失望、非常不满，一直在鼓励联邦政府和特朗普总统采取措施重 新恢复与中国的大豆贸易。" "其实我们早些时候计划参加进博会时，我还在思索届时能和大家交流些什么。"美国大豆出口协会 （USSEC）首席执行官（CEO）苏健（Jim Sutter）近日对第一财经记者谈及第八届中国国际进口博览 会（下称"进博会"）时表示，他在进博会上的所见所闻，以及与中国合作伙伴的交流让他松了口气。 "我始终觉得中美两国人民之间有一种天然的好感。中国的市场极其庞大，而且发展非常迅速，需要进 口农产品的原材料。在美国，我们产量远大于国内的消耗，所以中美之间存在一种非常自然的协同 ...

求助于中国也于事无补，特朗普只能无奈地目睹，数十亿美元的巨额大单"飞走"，此刻的他怕是懊悔不 已。 特朗普政府这波操作真是搬起石头砸了自己的脚！当初不顾各方反对执意对中国挥舞关税大棒，如今美 国农民望着满仓的大豆欲哭无泪。 【美国大豆错失中国市场】 路透社从三名贸易商那里得知，在全球最大大豆买家中国转向巴西采购后，美国今年可能要眼睁睁看着 价值数十亿美元的中国大豆订单打水漂。这可不是小数目，足够让整个中西部农业州的经济抖三抖。 往年这个时候，美国中西部农场主们早就忙着接中国订单了。知情贸易商向路透社透露，今年中国买家 根本不按常理出牌：9月份800万吨、10月份400万吨的大豆采购清一色都给了南美，而去年同期中国从 美国进口了足足700万吨。 芝加哥期货交易所的大豆价格应声跌到五年最低点，交易大厅里操盘手们的脸色比生锈的收割机还难 看。 但金融分析师们听完直摇头，现在美国大豆运到中国要交23%的关税，比巴西贵出一大截，除非白宫自 己先撤销对华关税，否则中国商人又不傻。 外交部发言人被问及此事时淡定回应：具体问题得问主管部门，但强调中国在贸易问题上的立场从来都 是明确且连贯的。 巧的是当天商务部刚宣布，中美同意 ...

Core Insights - The market share of South American soybeans has surpassed that of the United States in China, which is now the world's largest soybean importer, processor, and consumer [1][3] - The U.S. Soybean Export Council has been actively involved in technology transfer and market development in China since 1982, focusing on enhancing the efficiency of soybean utilization in livestock and aquaculture [1][2] - The U.S. soybean industry emphasizes sustainable development, with approximately 75% of soybean farms in the U.S. having biodiversity protection areas and adhering to the Sustainable Soy Assurance Protocol (SSAP) [2][3] Industry Developments - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo highlighted advancements in manufacturing, showcasing over 110 renowned companies and their latest achievements in high-tech industries [3] - The expo emphasized the importance of green development and international cooperation in green manufacturing, encouraging industry leaders to build green factories and enhance green supply chains [3] U.S. Soybean Industry Strategy - The U.S. soybean industry has a long history of strategic foresight, with initiatives dating back to the establishment of the U.S. Soybean Export Council in 1920 and the launch of international promotion in 1956 [2] - The industry has introduced advanced global technologies into China's livestock and feed processing sectors, fostering local innovation and contributing to domestic soybean research and industry upgrades [2]