Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Downward [3] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Oscillation and bottom - building [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [7][8] - Offset paper: Oscillation [8] - Soybean oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Palm oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Soybean meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8][9] - Rapeseed meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - No. 2 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - No. 1 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - Live pigs: Strong - biased oscillation [9] - Rubber: Oscillation [10][11] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [11] - PTA: Oscillation [11] - MEG: Weak oscillation [11] - PR: Wait - and - see [11] - PF: Wait - and - see [11] Core Views - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, with limited upward momentum for prices in the high - level range. The coal - coke market has a weak demand but short - term support at low levels. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the glass market's future depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors. In the financial market, the short - term adjustment is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic. The precious metals market is supported by long - term factors, with short - term disturbances from interest rate policies and risk - aversion sentiment. The light industry products like logs and pulp have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. The oilseeds and oils market is expected to continue range - bound operation, and the agricultural products market, such as live pigs, has specific supply - demand and price trends. The soft commodities and polyester products also have their own price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors [2][3][4][7][8][9][10][11] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 3.3232 billion tons, while the arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 155.5 million tons to 2.784 billion tons. Daily hot - metal production dropped by 23,800 tons to 2.323 million tons. The demand core lies in real estate, with new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Port iron ore inventory slightly increased to an 8 - month high. The oversupply pattern is hard to reverse, and although the probability of short - term negative feedback is low, the price oscillates in the high - level range with limited upward momentum [2] - **Coal and coke**: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations for further cuts. After continuous declines, the valuation of coking coal and coke has become reasonable and stopped falling this week. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season has reduced the expectation of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry. Some domestic coal mines are affected by safety inspections, with a slight decline in the weekly operating rate. The profit of some coking enterprises has improved, but the demand is weakening, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises has intensified. There is still a need for inventory replenishment in the short term, providing support at low levels [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and winter - storage replenishment has not started yet. The core lies in steel demand, with real - estate new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Steel prices may stop falling if the output is reduced by more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and anti - involution policies are effectively implemented. Currently, the price is expected to remain at the bottom, with no significant change in supply and demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the impact of December's macro - policy expectations on winter storage [2] - **Glass**: There are supply - side disturbances. It is expected that three production lines in Hubei will undergo cold - repair in December, but there are rumors of a delay. The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and the futures price is running weakly. The total inventory of float - glass sample enterprises has decreased, reaching the lowest level since October. The real - estate completion decline has dragged down demand, and whether the price can stop falling depends on the cold - repair progress and macro factors [2][3] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw the CSI 300 Index up 0.34%, the SSE 50 Index up 0.38%, the CSI 500 Index up 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 Index up 0.01%. There was capital inflow in the engineering machinery and semiconductor sectors and capital outflow in the catering, tourism, and retail sectors. There are various exchanges and communications between Chinese and American enterprises and organizations, and relevant policies and statements are also involved. The market is in short - term adjustment, but the medium - term trend is optimistic, with the high - tech industry continuing to grow [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 2bps, FR007 rose by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 180.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on December 4th, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. The spot - bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In the context of high interest rates and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the dollar's credit, highlighting gold's de - fiat - currency attribute. In a high - interest - rate environment, gold's substitution effect for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to US Treasury real interest rates has decreased. Geopolitical risks and China's physical - gold demand support the price. The logic behind the current gold - price increase remains unchanged, with short - term disturbances from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, and factors such as non - farm data and inflation data also affect the market [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it shows a strong - biased oscillation trend, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, risk - aversion sentiment, and economic data [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume at ports last week was 613,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume was stable above 600,000 cubic meters but decreased last week. The volume of New Zealand's logs shipped to China in October increased by 2% compared to the previous month, while China's coniferous - log imports decreased by 4.67% from the previous month and 7.14% year - on - year. The expected arrival volume last week decreased by 48%. The port inventory decreased by 600,000 cubic meters. The spot - market price is running weakly, and the price of 4/6 - meter medium - grade A logs has decreased. The supply pressure has improved, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs and weak cost support. The price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [4][7][8] - **Pulp**: The spot - market price continued to show a strong trend in the previous trading day, with the price of some softwood - pulp spot markets rising by 20 - 150 yuan/ton and that of hardwood - pulp by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp remained at $680/ton, and that of hardwood pulp increased by $10 to $550/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure, with low acceptance of high - priced pulp. The demand is weak, and although traders have raised their quotes, downstream procurement is rational. The price is expected to return to oscillation [7][8] - **Double - offset paper**: The spot - market price stabilized in the previous trading day. The production of double - offset paper is expected to be stable, with little change in the supply side. The publication tenders are basically over, and orders are expected to increase, which is beneficial for paper - enterprise sales. Large - scale paper enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, and the price may be raised at the beginning of the month. The price is expected to maintain oscillation in the short term [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil were higher than expected, and the export in November decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. However, palm oil is supported by the expected production reduction due to floods in Southeast Asia and the postponement of EU policies. A large amount of soybeans are arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and although the oil inventory has decreased, the supply is abundant. The demand may gradually pick up, and with cost support, the oil market is expected to continue range - bound operation, with attention paid to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the production - sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [8] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending inventory have all been adjusted downward, with a structurally tight supply, but the global soybean supply is still relatively abundant. The Sino - US trade agreement may promote US soybean exports to China, but US soybeans are more expensive than Brazilian ones, and the US biodiesel policy is uncertain, resulting in uncertain demand prospects. The weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area is generally favorable, while that in the Argentinean area is uneven. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is high, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and although the demand from the breeding industry supports feed consumption, the breeding efficiency is poor, and feed enterprises are cautious in procurement. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the progress of Sino - US trade [8][9] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs nationwide is 124.62 kg, and it is showing a downward trend in most provinces this week. Due to the lag in the monthly slaughter progress, breeding enterprises are accelerating sales, increasing the supply of live pigs. Retail farmers are mainly slaughtering large - weight pigs, which do not fully match market demand. Slaughtering enterprises are more inclined to purchase from large - scale farms, leading to a slight decrease in the trading weight, which may continue to decline slightly in the next week. The average settlement price of live pigs at key slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 12.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous period. The settlement price is continuously falling. The average operating rate of slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 38.92%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from last week. The supply of live pigs is generally abundant, and with the temperature drop, the terminal consumption has slightly recovered, increasing the orders of slaughtering enterprises and supporting the slight increase in the operating rate. However, the operating rate is expected to weaken next week. The profitability of self - breeding and piglet - fattening has decreased, and the decline in breeding costs is less than that in sales revenue. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline in the next week [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: In the Yunnan rubber - producing area, the weather is average, and the raw - material price is stable, with the factory price increase driving up the raw - material price. In Hainan, the weather is good this week, but the output has decreased due to temperature. Affected by continuous rain and typhoon weather, the overall glue output is lower than the same period in previous years. The production and purchase costs of local processing plants have slightly increased, providing support for the price. In Thailand, there is a lot of rain, and the average weekly price has reached 57 Thai baht/kg, with both the glue and cup - lump prices rising. In Vietnam, the raw - material supply in the southern area is gradually recovering, while other areas are still affected by rainfall. The total inventory is at a low level. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 62%. The capacity utilization rate decreased this week due to short - term maintenance plans in some enterprises, but it will gradually recover. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.35 million and 3.32 million vehicles respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase and a record - high year - on - year increase. The natural - rubber inventory is increasing significantly, with the total social inventory reaching 1.08 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous period. Both bonded and general - trade warehouses are accumulating inventory, and it is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation period. The weakening of raw - material procurement prices and the inventory - accumulation trend suppress price increases, and with weak demand - side support, the natural - rubber price is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [10][11] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical instability has led to supply risks, and with the Fed likely to cut interest rates in December, oil prices have rebounded. The current PX supply is high, but the downstream polyester load has rebounded, which is beneficial for PX demand. The PXN price difference is temporarily stable, and the PX price is oscillating widely [11] - **PTA**: The wide - range oscillation of oil prices has affected the PX end, causing the cost of PTA to loosen. Although the short - term supply - demand situation of PTA has improved, the industry's seasonal weakness is inevitable, and the supply - demand situation will deteriorate in the future. The processing margin is still low, and the spot price is expected to mainly follow the cost - side fluctuations in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [11] - **MEG**: In the long - term, the inventory - accumulation pressure of MEG still exists, but the situation has improved in the near - term due to a reduction in some supplies. Attention should be paid to the continuous changes in the supply side. As the port inventory increases, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased, and the MEG spot basis has weakened. In the short term, the MEG price is expected to oscillate weakly, with continuous upward pressure [11] - **PR**: The terminal performance remains weak, and the order - taking pressure of factories and traders has increased. With weak raw - material support, the polyester - bottle - chip market may oscillate weakly [11] - **PF**: The upward trend of oil prices continues, and the current supply - demand structure of polyester staple fiber is acceptable. However, the market is in a wait - and - see state [11]

在2025年深秋，中美高层通话不到24小时，美国财政部长贝森特就对媒体透露出一项重大消息：中美已 经在农业领域达成了一项共识。根据这项协议，中国将在未来三年半内购买高达8750万吨的美国大豆。 三年前，美国对中国脱钩的呼声震天响，特朗普更是通过推特和演讲威胁要让全球跟随美国断供中国。 然而到了2025年，特朗普的任期仅剩三年多时，局势却发生了转变，美国反而率先在这一问题上做出了 让步。 特朗普此次访华看似是为了促进中美友好，实际上却是在急于通过达成协议来给自己在国内选民面前交 差，尤其是农业州的选票。特朗普在农业问题上的立场经历了多次变化，早期他曾表示要让中国为美国 农业买单，后来又承诺不会让农民受到伤害。然而事实却是，美国的大豆出口中断了三年，农民们损失 惨重，补贴也无法弥补这些损失。如今，他试图通过这份大豆协议来证明自己为美国农民争取了利益。 但中国方面显然对此保持谨慎，明确表示合作是可以的，但必须是实质性的合作，而不是空口号。 这次特朗普的双访安排其实是一种审查式会晤。中国的态度十分清楚：如果特朗普是来真诚合作的，欢 迎谈判；如果只是为了选举目的找借口，单纯的政治秀，中国则不会给面子。换句话说，中方已经 ...

11月24日，中美两国高层进行的通话引起了全球的广泛关注。这些年，中美之间不断发生摩擦，这使得许多涉及中美贸易的国家和企业感到 紧张。因为中美两国经济体量庞大，他们的每一个决定和行动都可能对全球经济产生巨大影响。以特朗普上任后的关税政策为例，每当他提 高关税，许多小公司往往会因此失去订单；白宫发布一项禁令，甚至可能导致一个行业的衰落。而如果中国决定控制稀土出口，全球的制造 业大国就会急忙派人前来中国争取出口许可。可以说，世界上大多数国家都无法忽视中美两国之间的博弈。从特朗普第一任期开始，到如 今，跨国企业在中美之间承受了不少压力。不过，目前有了好消息，或许这样的紧张局面正在发生改变。 就在特朗普计划两次访问中国的消息刚传出时，美国却突然宣布中国将购买8700万吨美国大豆，这一消息引发了人们对中美关系在明年可能 发生变化的猜测。 因此，美国可能需要调整其经济政策。虽然特朗普不愿意完全放弃加税这个杀手锏，但现实情况并不允许他随意操作。毕竟，美国政府并没 有什么手段能彻底压制中国，每次对中国的制裁措施，实际上也会影响到美国自身。如果美国能够与中国保持良好关系，把对抗转化为合 作，这对美国来说无疑是件好事，而全球经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - China will suspend or revoke all retaliatory non-tariff measures against the United States starting from March 4, 2025, which may lead to the lifting of bans on U.S. instrument companies previously listed in the "Unreliable Entity List" and could present new business opportunities in China [1][7]. Group 1 - The U.S. White House officially released the text of the China-U.S. economic and trade relationship agreement on November 1, 2025, which includes measures such as tariff reductions, regulatory relaxations, and exemptions to maintain stable trade cooperation between the two countries [3]. - The document outlines that China will suspend or revoke all retaliatory non-tariff measures against the U.S. starting from March 4, 2025, including the listing of certain U.S. companies on the final user list and the Unreliable Entity List [7]. - The potential lifting of the ban on U.S. instrument companies could signify a turnaround in their business operations in China [7]. Group 2 - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced the inclusion of foreign entities, including a U.S. instrument company, in the Unreliable Entity List due to violations of market trading principles and discriminatory practices [10]. - The U.S. company Illumina, Inc. was specifically cited for being placed on the Unreliable Entity List on February 4, 2025, and further prohibited from exporting gene sequencing instruments to China starting March 4, 2025 [15].

Group 1 - The announcement of the negotiation results between China and the U.S. signifies a clear retreat in U.S. tariff policy, with the cancellation of the 10% tariff on Chinese fentanyl and a one-year suspension of the previously imposed 24% tariff [1] - The remaining tariffs between the U.S. and China have been reduced to 10%, contrasting sharply with Trump's earlier proposals for much higher tariffs, indicating a significant shift in U.S. strategy [1] - The U.S. decision to suspend tariffs reflects a recognition that tariffs cannot effectively be used as a weapon against China, leading to a pragmatic approach to reduce tensions through tariff relief [3] Group 2 - The timing of the negotiation results coincides with a two-hour meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S., suggesting a positive development in bilateral relations, which are crucial given the extensive trade ties between the two nations [4] - China has expressed a willingness to purchase U.S. agricultural products and energy resources, emphasizing the mutual benefits of trade and the importance of avoiding a tariff war [4] - The potential for a return to normal trade relations could benefit U.S. consumers with lower prices on Chinese goods and provide broader market access for U.S. agriculture and energy sectors, reinforcing the idea that cooperation yields greater benefits than confrontation [4]

Report Core View - After five rounds of high - level trade consultations this year and the meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state, the two sides have withdrawn from the escalating trade frictions. The consensus reached is beneficial for the US to control inflation and for China's exports to the US to grow [2] Key Points from the Meeting and Consultations 1. Meeting between Chinese and US Heads of State - On the noon of October 30 local time, the Chinese President met with the US President in Busan, South Korea, lasting about 1 hour and 40 minutes. The Chinese side emphasized that the two countries' economic and trade teams exchanged in - depth views on important economic and trade issues and reached a consensus on solving problems. The two teams should refine and finalize follow - up work. The two heads of state agreed to strengthen cooperation in economic, trade, energy and other fields and promote people - to - people exchanges [1] 2. Results of the Consultations Tariff - related - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions). The 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly. Both sides agreed to extend some tariff exclusion measures [1] Export Control - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29 for one year. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study and refine specific plans [1] Industry - related Investigation - The US will suspend the implementation of its Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year. After the US suspends relevant measures, China will also suspend its counter - measures against the US for one year [2] Other Consensus - The two sides reached consensus on fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. They further confirmed the results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations. The US made positive commitments in investment and other fields, and China will properly resolve the TikTok - related issue with the US [2]

Core Viewpoint - China has resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans, buying approximately 180,000 tons in three batches, with deliveries scheduled for December and January, following a positive outcome from recent U.S.-China talks [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that China is expected to gradually restore soybean purchases from the U.S. over the coming years, with a formal agreement potentially being finalized during the upcoming U.S.-China summit [3]. - The U.S. government is under pressure to support American soybean farmers, as they have faced difficulties due to trade tensions, with Mnuchin himself being a soybean farmer [3][5]. - The U.S. soybean market has been significantly impacted by China's imposition of high tariffs, leading to a complete halt in U.S. soybean imports by China in September, marking the first such occurrence since November 2018 [5][7]. Group 2: Agricultural Impact - The inability to sell U.S. soybeans has prompted American farmers to seek alternative markets in Southeast Asia, but they have struggled to find replacements for the Chinese market [7]. - The U.S. soybean industry is politically significant, as many farmers are strong supporters of the Republican Party, and their dissatisfaction could impact upcoming elections [7][9]. - The potential resumption of soybean purchases from China could alleviate financial pressures on U.S. farmers and stabilize their operations, which is crucial for maintaining political support for the current administration [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - China is the world's largest soybean importer, requiring over 100 million tons annually, and cannot rely solely on Brazilian soybeans, making U.S. soybeans a critical component of its supply [15]. - The recent trade discussions have led to a temporary balance, with both sides making concessions: the U.S. refraining from imposing additional tariffs and China showing a willingness to purchase U.S. soybeans [15]. - Despite the current agreement, China's long-term strategy includes increasing domestic soybean production and diversifying import sources, which may reduce reliance on U.S. soybeans in the future [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the resumption of jet engine supply from General Electric to COMAC indicates a gradual easing of U.S. technology restrictions on China, suggesting a new cooperative dynamic between the two countries [1] - The recent lifting of restrictions on chip and ethane supplies further supports the notion of improved U.S.-China relations, which is seen as a positive signal for the market and may lead to a turning point for the Chinese economy in the second half of the year [1] - The market has been adjusting due to trade restrictions, and the gradual resolution of these issues is expected to restore market confidence [1] Group 2 - The unexpected news of the U.S. resuming jet engine supplies has sparked bullish sentiment in the A-share market, despite the expectation of a market adjustment [2] - The market's upward movement driven by positive news may not change the underlying market dynamics, leading to a potential return to previous levels after initial gains [2] - The index's performance may not correlate with individual stock movements, indicating that even if the index reaches new highs, many stocks may not follow suit [3] Group 3 - The three major indices experienced slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, although there was significant divergence in market performance [4] - A large number of stocks experienced declines, leading to a greater loss effect compared to previous days, particularly in the small-cap sector [4] - The market's downturn is attributed to the impact of new quantitative regulations, which have adversely affected short-term market dynamics and made it challenging for investors to capitalize on opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. held in Geneva resulted in significant progress, leading to a positive market reaction in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][11] - A-shares saw substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.82% to 3369.24, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.63% to 2064.71, indicating strong market sentiment [3] - The Hong Kong market also experienced a surge, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 2.98% at 23549.46, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.16% to 5447.35, reflecting investor optimism [7] Group 2 - The sectors that performed well in A-shares included military industry, robotics, and the Apple supply chain, with notable stocks like Seven Star Precision and Kunsan Intelligent hitting the daily limit [9] - Conversely, sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and precious metals faced declines, with stocks like Maiwei Biotech and Baiji Shenzhou dropping significantly [10] - In the Hong Kong market, the consumer electronics sector led the gains, with stocks like Highgreat Electronics rising over 18%, while pharmaceutical and gold stocks underperformed [10] Group 3 - The joint statement from the U.S. and China emphasized the establishment of a consultation mechanism for economic and trade issues, aiming for regular communication and further negotiations [11] - The agreement included a significant reduction in tariffs, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating, which is expected to benefit both economies [11] - Analysts view the joint statement as a major positive for global economic stability and anticipate a rebound in the Chinese stock market, particularly for high-quality blue-chip stocks [12]