晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|牛市的规律与洼地》投资策略 1、国内：7 月财政收支均回升，土地成交小幅转冷。7 月财政收入累计 同比回正，当月同比回升转正，税收收入同比回升，非税收入同比继续回 落，财政支出同比回升。7 月全国政府性基金收入、国有土地使用权出让 收入同比回落，全国政府性基金支出同比回落。2、国际：鲍威尔发言加 大市场押注降息概率。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发言"放鸽"，市 场加大押注 9 月降息的力度。截至 2025/8/23，美联储 2025 年 9 月降息 25 基点的概率为 75%，维持现有利率的概率为 25%。3、行业配置建议： 赛点 2.0 第三阶段攻坚不易，波折难免，重视恒生互联网。红利回撤常在 有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的高度取决于 AI 产业趋势的 进展，而 AI 产业趋势的进展又取决于 AI 应用端和消费端的突破。消费板 块投资的核心因子是估值，在当前消费板块低估值、利率下行、政策催化 下复苏周期抬头，以宏观叙事而对消费过分悲观反而是一种风险，重视恒 生互联网。 风险提示：地缘冲突超预期，海外通胀持续性超预期，流动性收紧超预期。 《金工|量化择时周 ...

家用电器 2025 年 08 月 24 日 行 业 研 究 家用电器 大行科工招股书梳理：国内折叠自行车行业龙头 ——25W34 周观点 投资要点： 大行科工招股书梳理：国内折叠自行车行业龙头 行 业 定 期 报 告 大行科工为国内折叠自行车行业龙头。大行品牌由韩德玮博士于 1982 年创立。凭借逾 40 年的发展，大行品牌在技术实力、创新精神、 匠心工艺、对卓越性能和产品质量的追求方面享负盛名。根据招股书 援引的灼识咨询数据，2024 年公司在中国内地折叠自行车行业销量市 占率达 26.3%，销售额市占率为达 36.5%，均位列行业第一，拥有强大 的品牌影响力和行业地位。近年来公司实现快速增长，2024 年公司自 行车销量为 22.95 万辆，2022-2024 年 CAGR 为 24%，2024 年实现营 收 4.51 亿元，同比+50%，2022-2024 年 CAGR 为 33%，2024 年公司 实现净利润 0.52 亿元，同比+50%，2022-2024 年 CAGR 为 30%。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅+1.5%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别-0.3%/+9.1%/+0.8 ...

4、禽板块：白鸡&蛋鸡重视引种缺口；黄鸡重视消费需求边际改善！1）重视白鸡基本面，关注引种边际变化！ ①祖代鸡引种不确定性犹存。考虑到2015 年法国因禽流感封关后，我国已有近10 年未从法国引种，叠加现阶段全 球禽流感及美国关税预期，我们预计今年祖代鸡更新将呈现总量下降及品种结构变化。②本周鸡苗价格稳定、毛鸡 价格小幅震荡。③投资建议：行业磨底已持续 3年，产能收缩意愿增加；当前海外引种持续受扰动，重视引种数量 和结构变化，前瞻布局行情景气反转；建议重视自主育种崛起机会以及掌握引种替代资源的白羽鸡龙头。首推【圣 农发展】，建议关注【益生股份】、【民和股份】、【禾丰股份】、【仙坛股份】等。2）黄鸡：供给或现收缩，核 心变量在需求。①产能处于较低区间，但仍在 2018 年以来的较低区间。②台风过境未阻涨价势头，续养及消费渠 道增量明显，其中快、中、慢速类全国均价分别为5.42元/斤、6.34元/斤、7.62元/斤，环比+0.3/ +0.3/ +0.36 元/ 斤（8 月11 日-8 月17 日）。③投资建议：价格筑底或已完成，需求边际改善有望带动价格触底回升。随着黄鸡消 费下半年高于上半年的特性，我们认为黄羽鸡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pet industry is entering a new development stage, with pets transitioning from "functional companions" to "family members" [1] Industry Trends - The scale of pet ownership is increasing, leading to the growth of related sectors such as pet food, pet supplies, pet healthcare, and pet services, which are evolving towards specialization and refinement [1] - There is a rapid rise in the demand for "specialized and dedicated" products for pets [1] Market Dynamics - The booming pet economy is attracting more industrial capital into the market [1] - During the Asia Pet Expo, an increasing number of e-commerce platforms, including leading shelf e-commerce, interest e-commerce, and lifestyle platforms, have set up booths, indicating the growing appeal of the pet economy in recent years [1] - A participant who has attended the expo for five consecutive years noted that the number of e-commerce platforms and the size of their booths have both increased significantly [1]

Industry Overview - The pet economy is rapidly growing, driven by social changes such as urbanization, smaller family structures, and an increase in single and elderly populations, leading to pets being viewed as family members and emotional companions [4][5] - The Chinese pet industry is entering a new development stage, with pets transitioning from "functional companions" to "family members," resulting in a rise in demand for specialized pet products and services [5][6] Market Size and Growth - According to the "2025 China Pet Industry White Paper," the number of pet dogs in China is projected to reach 52.58 million in 2024, a 1.6% increase from 2023, while the number of pet cats is expected to reach 71.53 million, a 2.5% increase [7] - The urban pet market in China is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024 and is projected to surpass 400 billion yuan by 2027, indicating significant growth potential compared to the U.S. pet market, which is expected to exceed 140 billion USD in 2024 [8][9] Consumer Spending Trends - Pet food constitutes a major portion of pet owners' expenses, with average monthly costs for pet care varying based on pet type and owner preferences; for example, one owner spends approximately 2,000 yuan monthly on their dog [7][8] - The rise of "self-indulgence economy" and "emotional consumption" is reshaping the pet consumption market in China, with a growing focus on high-quality pet food and services [8][9] Product and Service Innovations - Pet food brands are increasingly focusing on product quality, nutritional value, and specialized needs, with domestic brands gaining market share through insights into local consumer preferences [9][10] - The demand for diverse, intelligent, and one-stop pet services is growing, with over 30,000 businesses providing pet services on platforms like Meituan, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase [11] Competitive Landscape - The pet industry is attracting significant investment from various sectors, with companies like Daqian Ecology and Three Squirrels entering the market to create comprehensive pet service brands [13] - The competition is intensifying, prompting companies to innovate and differentiate their offerings, such as unique pet cages and specialized pet food products [15][16]

宠物经济的崛起，首先源于深刻的社会结构变革。随着城市化进程加快，家庭结构小型化、单身人口增 加、人口老龄化趋势明显，宠物在许多家庭中扮演着越来越重要的角色——它们不仅是宠物，更是情感 寄托和家庭成员。 "它是一只小太阳一般的小狗，不护食、不记仇，学东西很快，每天都很快乐，可以把这种情绪传递给 我。看到可爱的它就会觉得很治愈。"宠物狗"糖糖"的主人周女士说。这种情感连接催生了"拟人化"消 费趋势，主人愿意为宠物购买更优质的食品、更舒适的窝垫、更时尚的服饰，甚至专门为宠物举办生日 派对。 记者在采访中了解到，中国宠物行业已进入新的发展阶段。宠物正逐步从"功能性伴侣"向"家庭成员"的 角色转变。伴随养宠规模的上升，宠物食品、宠物用品、宠物医疗、宠物服务等相关行业正朝着精细 化、专业化等方向发展，"专宠专用"需求正快速崛起。 宠物市场越来越大 近日，在上海举办的第27届亚洲宠物展(简称"亚宠展")的High Fashion秀场，"糖糖"在主人的牵引下在T 台上迈着小碎步走秀。它留着白色微卷毛，身着蓝白条纹服饰，胸前饰有一朵大大的蝴蝶结宠物领巾， 萌态十足。与它一同亮相的"模特"还有另外16只体型和造型各异的犬，成为一 ...

Group 1 - The pet economy in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by social changes such as urbanization, smaller family structures, and an increase in single and elderly populations, leading to pets being viewed as family members and emotional companions [4][5] - The number of pet dogs in China is projected to reach 52.58 million in 2024, a 1.6% increase from 2023, while the number of pet cats is expected to reach 71.53 million, a 2.5% increase [7] - The pet market in urban areas is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024 and is projected to surpass 400 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [8] Group 2 - Pet food is a major expenditure for pet owners, with a focus on safety, nutrition, and specific health needs, driving demand for high-quality products [9] - Domestic brands are gaining market share by understanding local consumer needs and leveraging online sales channels, leading to significant growth in revenue for companies like 中宠股份, which reported a 24.32% increase in revenue [10] - The demand for diverse and high-quality pet services is rising, with over 30,000 businesses offering pet services on platforms like 美团, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth [11] Group 3 - The entry of new players into the pet industry is increasing, with companies like 大千生态 and 三只松鼠 launching new pet brands and products, indicating a growing interest in the pet market [13] - Competition in the pet industry is intensifying, prompting companies to innovate and meet specific consumer needs, such as unique pet products and tailored services [14][15] - The trend of "specialized pet products" is emerging as a new growth point for brands, with opportunities in health care, nutrition, and pet supplies based on pet type and age [16]

Core Viewpoint - Aigo Holding Limited has filed for an IPO with the SEC, aiming to raise between $8 million and $12 million by offering 2 million ADS at a price range of $4 to $6 per share [1]. Company Overview - Aigo Holding operates through its domestic entity, Fuzhou Patriot Star Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd., and has developed a diversified product matrix covering LED lighting, smart home products, small household appliances, and pet supplies [4]. - The core brand, AIGOSTAR, focuses on lighting and smart home solutions, contributing over 30% of the group's sales with more than 6,000 SKUs [4]. - The subsidiary brand, NOBLEZA, specializes in pet supplies and has maintained a compound annual growth rate of over 30% for the past three years, making it the fastest-growing segment [4]. Market Strategy - Aigo Holding has established a strategic network with a focus on Europe, having set up six subsidiaries in countries like Spain and Italy, covering over 20,000 offline stores across more than ten countries [4]. - The company has generated €75 million in sales in 2023 through its "free boutique store upgrade plan" in emerging markets such as Mexico and Ghana, leveraging a model that combines deep offline channel development with online platform expansion [4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal years ending December 31, 2023 and 2024, the company projects revenues of €151.19 million and €177.78 million, respectively, with corresponding net profits of €5.7 million and €3.69 million [7][8]. - The gross profit for the same periods is expected to be €75.44 million and €85.94 million, while total operating expenses are projected at €72.91 million and €78.94 million [8].

Summary of Jihong Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jihong Co., Ltd. - **Period**: First half of 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: 3.2 billion RMB, up 32% year-on-year [2][3] - **Net Profit**: 118 million RMB, up 63.27% year-on-year [3] - **Net Profit (excluding non-recurring items)**: 113 million RMB, up 80% year-on-year [3] - **Cross-border E-commerce Revenue**: 2.1 billion RMB, up 52.91% year-on-year [2][3] - **Net Profit from Cross-border E-commerce**: 55 million RMB, up 97.67% year-on-year [2][3] - **Packaging Business Revenue**: 1.1 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year [2][3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Increased by over 300% year-on-year [2][12] Cross-border E-commerce Insights - **Market Growth**: Significant growth in the European market, with revenue more than doubling [5] - **Regional Revenue Breakdown**: - Northeast Asia: ~48% - Southeast Asia: 16% - Europe and America: ~27% [7] - **Growth Rates**: - Northeast Asia: ~50% - Europe and America: over 100% [7] - **Average Order Value**: Approximately 240 RMB, slightly up from 230 RMB [8] - **Product Categories**: Diverse categories including clothing, home goods, and beauty products [10] - **Free Brand Development**: Free brand sales increased by 50% year-on-year, with some brands doubling their sales [11] Packaging Business Insights - **Revenue Composition**: Divided into consumer packaging and food-grade packaging [6] - **Food-grade Packaging Growth**: Over 30% growth, driven by instant retail and higher profit margins [6] - **Profit Margin Improvement**: Expected to increase as food-grade packaging becomes a larger revenue share [21] Operational Efficiency - **AI Technology Utilization**: Enhanced operational efficiency across the supply chain, reducing backend staff while increasing order volume [15][16] - **Employee Structure**: Predominantly front-end business and IT personnel, with around 200 IT staff and 500 front-end staff [17] Currency and Market Dynamics - **Currency Fluctuations**: Managed through financial hedging; stable coin development is being monitored for future payment solutions [18][19] - **Impact of Tariffs**: Minimal impact from tariffs due to strong relationships with ASEAN countries; potential shifts in cross-border seller strategies due to U.S. tariffs [24][25] Challenges and Future Outlook - **Sales Expense Ratio**: Increased due to higher upfront brand marketing costs, while packaging costs remain stable [27] - **Seasonality**: Minimal seasonal impact on cash flow; overall revenue growth is the primary driver of cash flow improvement [13] - **Middle East Expansion**: Ongoing construction of a base in the Middle East, with small-scale production expected to start in Q4 2025 [22] Management and Governance - **Chairman's Share Reduction**: Minor share reduction by the chairman, considered a personal action [30] - **Team Incentives**: Implementation of a partner plan to incentivize team leaders and maintain staff stability [29] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, operational strategies, market dynamics, and future outlook for Jihong Co., Ltd.

Group 1 - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1][6] - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 34,931 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [1][6] - From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 284,238 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.8% [1][6] Group 2 - Urban retail sales in July were 33,620 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while rural retail sales reached 5,160 billion yuan, growing by 3.9% [3] - For the first seven months, urban retail sales totaled 246,669 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.8%, and rural retail sales were 37,569 billion yuan, increasing by 4.7% [3] Group 3 - In July, the retail sales of goods were 34,276 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, while catering revenue was 4,504 billion yuan, growing by 1.1% [3][6] - From January to July, the retail sales of goods reached 252,254 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.9%, and catering revenue was 31,984 billion yuan, increasing by 3.8% [3] Group 4 - For the first seven months, retail sales in convenience stores, supermarkets, department stores, specialty stores, and brand exclusive stores grew by 7.0%, 5.2%, 1.1%, 5.8%, and 1.9% respectively [4] - The national online retail sales reached 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, and the physical goods online retail sales were 70,790 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% [4] Group 5 - The newly opened Apple Store in Shenzhen is the third in the city and the 58th in Greater China, completing the layout along the east-west axis of Shenzhen [11] - The first city duty-free store in Shenzhen is set to open on August 26, featuring a diverse range of products including beauty, watches, and high-end liquor [13] Group 6 - The local fashion brand Lemanism is opening its first store in Nanchang, focusing on a comfortable and sunny shopping experience for the youth [25] - The brand BornTooth is expanding with its fourth store in Shanghai, emphasizing natural pet care products [27] Group 7 - The high-end dining brand PIZZERIA from Pizza Hut has opened its first store in South China, targeting young consumers with a focus on aesthetic dining experiences [30] - JD's first outlet in Nanjing has opened, featuring over 70 brands and a unique shopping experience [31] Group 8 - The sports brand 361 Degrees reported a revenue of 5.705 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [38] - Lilang Group's revenue for the first half of the year was 1.727 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.9% [41] Group 9 - The company Bubu Gao reported a net profit of 201 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a significant turnaround [42] - The company has improved its operational quality by closing underperforming stores and focusing on high-potential locations [43]