Workflow
房地产业等
icon
Search documents
美股策略下半年资产配置策略:风险事件持续出现
Guosen International· 2025-07-03 07:07
Group 1 - The report indicates that the US stock market has rebounded significantly due to signs of easing in the US-China trade war, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 5% year-to-date and the Nasdaq 100 increasing nearly 7% [12][13] - Despite the rebound, the report highlights that the small-cap Russell 2000 index remains down about 1%, indicating a divergence in market performance [12] - The report notes that the global stock indices, excluding the US, have outperformed the US market, with the world index rising 17% year-to-date, driven by a weaker dollar and capital outflows due to de-dollarization [12][13] Group 2 - The report discusses the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, which have shown signs of temporary easing, but structural differences remain significant, leading to uncertainty in future negotiations [13] - It highlights that the US economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP growth at -0.5%, primarily due to a surge in imports and a slowdown in consumer spending [17][18] - The report emphasizes that retail sales data for May fell short of expectations, with a 0.9% month-over-month decline, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment [22][23] Group 3 - The report outlines that the US job market is showing mixed signals, with job vacancies at 7.769 million but a decline in private sector job creation, reflecting a cautious outlook among employers [32][37] - It notes that the US housing market is under pressure, with new home sales dropping significantly, attributed to high prices and mortgage rates, leading to weakened demand [48][49] - The report also mentions that inflationary pressures are emerging, with core consumer price index data indicating a potential rise in inflation, which could complicate monetary policy decisions [58][59] Group 4 - The report suggests that global capital is shifting away from US dollar assets towards non-dollar markets, benefiting Hong Kong stocks and indicating a trend of de-dollarization [79][84] - It highlights that European and Japanese economies are showing signs of recovery, with improving macroeconomic indicators and investor sentiment, although uncertainties remain due to US trade policies [89][90] - The report recommends investors to consider increasing allocations to Hong Kong, European, and Japanese markets, as valuations are relatively lower compared to the US market [90]
【头条评论】支持中小企业发展要确保政策持续发力精准落地
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-06-16 17:38
各地坚持靶向施策,认真落实支持小微企业融资协调工作机制,切实解决小微企业融资难题。金融监管 总局最新数据显示,银行对支持小微企业融资协调工作机制推荐清单内经营主体新增授信已超18万亿 元。 但也要看到,外部环境不确定性仍然存在,中小企业在发展过程中仍面临诸多困难。从企业资金供给来 看,尽管资金指数有所上升,但由于中小企业规模小、管理不规范、信息透明度低、效益不高、抗风险 能力较弱,加之缺乏有效抵押物等原因,金融机构在对其贷款申请上持谨慎态度,融资难融资贵使得中 小企业在资金周转和扩展业务时面临较大压力。在市场竞争方面,中小企业多为民营企业,且处于产业 链两端,常常被拖欠货款或受到歧视。在技术创新上,中小企业因缺少资金、缺少人才等支撑,技术研 发投入少、创新能力不足、工艺差,很难适应市场变化,难以具备较强的竞争力。此外,政策落地难、 打造品牌难、创新发展难等问题也制约着中小企业的发展。 值得一提的是,支持中小企业发展,在加强政策之间的协调配合,形成政策合力的同时,更需要政策的 精准落地。财税优惠政策应根据区域行业和企业不同,降准落实到企业,以切实减轻企业负担。货币政 策要引导金融机构加大对中小企业的信贷投放,降 ...