文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、 耿佩璇 事件： 2月11日，国家统计局公布1月通胀数据，CPI同比0.2%、前值0.8%、预期0.4%、环比0.2%；PPI同 比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比0.4%。 核心观点：1月通胀分化，背后源于春节错位、输入性因素拉动提升，需求偏弱共同影响 1月PPI降幅明显收窄，主因铜价对PPI的拉动进一步增加，基期轮换也有一定程度的影响。 1月PPI环比 0.4%，同比上行0.5个百分点至-1.4%。我国价格指数每五年进行一次基期轮换，2026年开始为新一轮基 期轮换调整，但对每月PPI同比的影响仅为0.08个百分点。更重要的是，1月铜价涨幅扩大，相应有色采 选、有色压延业价格环比分别5.7%、5.2%， 拉动PPI环比0.5% ，为最强贡献项。钢价对PPI贡献也为 正， 拉动PPI环比0.1%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游PPI表现偏弱。 国际原油价格下行影响国内石油开采、精炼石 油产品制造价格分别下降3.1%和2.5%， 油价拖累PPI环比-0.08% ，煤价也有走弱， 拖累PPI环比-0.15% 。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨 ...

Group 1: CPI Insights - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year[7] - The core CPI remained high at 1.2% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[10] - Food prices contributed positively to the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.2% month-on-month, while pork prices fell by 2.2%[8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, but the year-on-year decline expanded to 2.2%[15] - Upstream prices were supported by rising global non-ferrous metal prices, while the impact of "anti-involution" policies continued to manifest in certain industries[15] - Coal mining and non-ferrous mining sectors led the PPI increase, with coal prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month[15] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and recent central economic meetings emphasized the importance of service consumption, indicating a potential shift in price recovery drivers towards service CPI in 2026[14] - The effectiveness of fiscal subsidies and anti-involution policies is expected to continue influencing market dynamics, with a focus on core service CPI recovery elasticity[14] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and the potential inadequacy of policy measures[4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year remains high at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[7] - In November, the overall CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, supported by food prices and consumption subsidies[7] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 7.2% due to weather factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[18] - The decline in PPI is influenced by falling international oil prices, while upstream prices for coal and non-ferrous metals have risen[18] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to impact industrial prices, with coal mining prices increasing by 4.1% month-on-month[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recovery of service CPI is expected to be a key variable for price stabilization in 2026, shifting focus from physical consumption[17] - The ongoing emphasis on service consumption in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and central economic work conference highlights the need for policy support[17] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and potential inadequacies in policy measures[24]