核心 CPI 同比维持高位 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.19 2025-12-19 2025 年 11 月物价数据点评 评 告 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 11 月核心 CPI 同比维持高位，PPI 同比降幅扩大。财政补贴、反内卷政策效果持续， 后续价格修复的关键变量或在于核心服务 CPI 修复弹性。 宏 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产走势不确定性仍存；政策力度不及预期。 观 研 究 宏 观 快 报 点 证 券 研 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 10 日，国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月物价数据，CPI 同比回升至 0.7%，PPI 同比回落至-2.2%，价格端总体仍有待提振。 11 月 CPI 主要受到食品、消费补贴政策及金价上涨推动，核心服务 价格仍弱于季节性，仍待政策提振。近期的"十五五规划"及中央经 济工作会议当中也强调了对于服务消费的重视，我们认为，与 2025 年依靠"以旧换新"对实物消费的拉动不同，2026 年物价回暖的关键 变量将切换至服务 CPI 的修复弹性。 11 月 PPI 表现主要由上游价格支撑，背后驱动因素为 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year remains high at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[7] - In November, the overall CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, supported by food prices and consumption subsidies[7] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 7.2% due to weather factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[18] - The decline in PPI is influenced by falling international oil prices, while upstream prices for coal and non-ferrous metals have risen[18] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to impact industrial prices, with coal mining prices increasing by 4.1% month-on-month[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recovery of service CPI is expected to be a key variable for price stabilization in 2026, shifting focus from physical consumption[17] - The ongoing emphasis on service consumption in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and central economic work conference highlights the need for policy support[17] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and potential inadequacies in policy measures[24]

Global Research ab 5 December 2025 We assume USDJPY will reach 152 by end-2026 and 2027, staying within the 2024- 2025 range. Crude oil prices should remain near current levels, implying neither strong upward nor downward pressure on domestic energy prices. However, the government will abolish the provisional gasoline tax and introduce electricity and gas subsidies, leading to substantially lower energy prices. We estimate the former will lower 2026 core CPI by 25bp and the latter by 12bp (63bp in February– ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the outlook for domestic inflation in 2026, focusing on the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends, highlighting the need for effective fiscal policies to stimulate demand and support price recovery [2][3][4]. Group 1: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has recently returned to the 1% range, indicating a positive signal, but this is attributed to specific factors rather than a broad recovery in domestic demand [2]. - The sustainability of "old momentum" is questioned, with expectations for increased fiscal support in 2026, particularly towards the service sector, but concerns about diminishing multiplier effects are raised [2][3]. - The direction of the price base is contingent on effective fiscal spending to create a positive demand cycle, emphasizing the need for structural changes in fiscal policy rather than mere continuation of existing measures [3]. Group 2: 2026 Inflation Projections - It is anticipated that the core CPI will shift focus from physical consumption driven by "trade-in" policies in 2025 to the recovery elasticity of "service CPI" in 2026, dependent on effective domestic demand policies [4]. - The PPI is expected to experience a recovery influenced by the interplay between real estate sector challenges and supply-side reforms, with potential for gradual improvements as policies are implemented [4].