国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年12月国内CPI同比上涨0.8%，并超过前值的0.7%，CPI环比由 上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%，创近三年来阶段性高位。同期，PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨 幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。CPI与PPI环比同时呈现正增长，显示2025年全年价格低位修复已成积极趋 势，并将为2026年价格带入回暖轨道奠定基础。 CPI环比上涨主要受除能源外的工业消费品价格上涨影响，扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨了0.6%，影 响CPI环比上涨约0.16个百分点。受益于提振消费政策效果持续显现，通信工具、母婴用品、文娱耐用 消费品、家用器具价格均有明显上涨。此外，元旦节前消费需求增加，带动食品价格环比上涨0.3%。 CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是 食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。鲜菜和鲜果价格涨幅分别扩大至18.2%和4.4%，牛肉、羊肉和水产品价格分别 上涨6.9%、4.4%和1.6%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以 上，这是一个积极信号。 影响CPI的主要因素是能源 ...

2025年全年，CPI与上年持平，PPI同比下降2.6%，物价运行总体呈现低位温和回升态势。 国家统计局发布最新数据显示，2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨 0.8%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨 0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 2025年12月份，CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，环 比上涨主要受除能源外的工业消费品价格上涨影响。扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨0.6%。提振消费 政策效果持续显现，叠加元旦临近，居民购物娱乐需求增加，通信工具、母婴用品、文娱耐用消费品、 家用器具价格均有上涨，涨幅在1.4%至3.0%之间。食品价格上涨0.3%。 CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高。董莉娟表示，同比涨 幅扩大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。食品价格上涨1.1%，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月增加约0.17个 百分点。 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。"这充分说明，以CPI为 表征的 ...

东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳认为，核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，这主要是受促消费政策效应显现，家 电、汽车价格同比改善，以及国际金价大幅上涨支撑。整体上看，上年同期基数下沉，异常天气导致菜 价大幅上涨，促消费政策对覆盖范围内商品价格支撑作用较强，以及国际金价加速冲高，带动四季度以 来CPI同比由负转正。 受国际大宗商品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，2025年12月 份，PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨。 一方面，供需结构改善带动部分行业价格上涨。重点行业产能治理与市场竞争秩序综合整治持续显效， 煤炭开采和洗选业、煤炭加工价格均连续5个月上涨；锂离子电池制造、水泥制造价格连续3个月上涨； 新能源车整车制造价格由上月下降0.2%转为上涨0.1%。 另一方面，输入性因素影响国内有色金属和石油相关行业价格走势分化。国际有色金属价格上行，拉动 国内有色金属矿采选业、有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比分别上涨3.7%和2.8%；国际原油价格下 行，影响国内石油开采、精炼石油产品制造价格分别下降2.3%和0.9%。 国家统计局发布最新数据显示，2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CP ...

12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，居民消费价格指数 （CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国际大宗商 品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 二、PPI环比涨幅扩大，同比降幅收窄 PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。本月PPI环比运行的主要特点：一是 供需结构改善带动部分行业价格上涨。重点行业产能治理与市场竞争秩序综合整治持续显效，煤炭开采 和洗选业、煤炭加工价格环比分别上涨1.3%和0.8%，均连续5个月上涨；锂离子电池制造价格上涨 1.0%，水泥制造价格上涨0.5%，均连续3个月上涨；新能源车整车制造价格由上月下降0.2%转为上涨 0.1%。需求季节性增加带动燃气生产和供应业、电力热力生产和供应业价格分别上涨1.2%和1.0%，羽 绒加工、毛纺织染整精加工价格分别上涨1.2%和1.0%。二是输入性因素影响国内有色金属和石油相关 行业价格走势分化。国际有色金属价格上行拉动国内有色金属 ...

国家统计局1月9日发布数据显示，2025年12月份，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨0.8%，环比上涨0.2%。2025年全年，全国居民消费价格与上年持 平。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，2025年12月份，CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩 大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。 CPI环比由降转涨 同比涨幅继续扩大 从环比看，2025年12月，CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%，环比上涨主要受除能源外的工业消费品价格上涨影响。扣除能源的工业消费品价格环比 上涨0.6%，影响CPI环比上涨约0.16个百分点。 图片来源：国家统计局 从同比看，董莉娟表示，2025年12月，CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格涨 幅扩大拉动。 董莉娟表示，PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 图片来源：国家统计局 董莉娟表示，2025年 ...

PPI同比下降1.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.3个百分点。国内各项宏观政策持续显效，部分行业价格呈现积极 变化。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年12月，工业生产者出厂价格同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。受国际大宗商 品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，2025年12月，PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比 上月扩大0.1个百分点。 其中，供需结构改善带动部分行业价格上涨。重点行业产能治理与市场竞争秩序综合整治持续显效，煤 炭开采和洗选业、煤炭加工价格环比分别上涨1.3%和0.8%，均连续5个月上涨；锂离子电池制造价格上 涨1.0%，水泥制造价格上涨0.5%，均连续3个月上涨；新能源车整车制造价格由上月下降0.2%转为上涨 0.1%。 需求季节性增加带动燃气生产和供应业、电力热力生产和供应业价格分别上涨1.2%和1.0%，羽绒加 工、毛纺织染整精加工价格分别上涨1.2%和1.0%。 输入性因素影响国内有色金属和石油相关行业价格走势分化。国际有色金属价格上行拉动国内有色金属 ...

据国家统计局网站，2025年12月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.8%。 其中，城市上涨0.9%，农村上涨0.6%；食品价格上涨1.1%，非食品价格上涨0.8%；消费品价格上涨 1.0%，服务价格上涨0.6%。 12月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.2%；食品价格上涨 0.3%，非食品价格上涨0.1%；消费品价格上涨0.3%，服务价格持平。 2025年全年，全国居民消费价格与上年持平。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年12月份CPI和PPI数据 12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，居民消费价格指数 （CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国际大宗商 品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 一、CPI环比由降转涨，同比涨幅继续扩大，核心CPI上涨1.2% CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%，环比上涨主要受除能源外的工业消费品价格上涨影响。扣除 能源的工业消费品 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI was 2.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat for two consecutive months on a month-on-month basis, indicating a continuous easing of the downward pressure on industrial product prices. The prices in the midstream manufacturing industry improved, and the prices in industries such as coal and ferrous metals continued to rise; in the industries related to external demand, the prices of electronics and aircraft manufacturing maintained growth. Structurally, there were differentiation characteristics: on the one hand, the prices of new quality productivity industries such as photovoltaic equipment rebounded, and the prices of consumer upgrade products increased significantly; on the other hand, affected by the decline in international oil prices, the prices of domestic oil-related products weakened. Overall, the current recovery of PPI is mainly driven by the low-base effect and policy expectations, but the recovery of downstream demand is still uneven, and the subsequent trend of industrial product prices still needs to focus on the substantial improvement of the demand side [4]. - In September 2025, the year-on-year decline of CPI was 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month-on-month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for 5 consecutive months, and it returned to above 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. Food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the prices of major food items such as fresh vegetables and pork were still in the downward range; non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year, among which the increases of industrial consumer goods such as gold jewelry and household appliances were obvious; service prices maintained stable growth. Overall, the continuous recovery of core CPI shows that domestic consumer demand is steadily recovering with policy support, but the drag of food prices still exists, and the improvement of CPI in the fourth quarter may be limited [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Events - On October 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. Among them, the CPI in urban areas decreased by 0.2%, and that in rural areas decreased by 0.5%; food prices decreased by 4.4%, and non-food prices increased by 0.7%; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.8%, and service prices increased by 0.6%. From January to September, the average national consumer price decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. - In September 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat on a month-on-month basis. The purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, and increasing by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. From January to September, the average producer price index for industrial products decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [3]. 2. 9 - Month Inflation Decline Convergence - PPI - The decline of PPI continued to narrow. In September 2025, PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year (with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month), and remained flat for two consecutive months on a month-on-month basis; the purchase price for industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, and increasing by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. - The price pressure in the midstream manufacturing industry eased. The prices in the midstream processing industry improved. The prices of coal mining and washing increased by 2.5% month-on-month, and the prices of coal processing increased by 3.8% month-on-month, both rising for two consecutive months. The prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing increased by 0.2% month-on-month; the prices of non-metallic mineral products decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. - Some improvements were seen in the external demand industries. Driven by the construction of a modern industrial system, the prices of electronic special material manufacturing increased by 1.2% year-on-year. In the field of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing, the prices of aircraft manufacturing increased by 1.4% year-on-year. - The impact of international input was differentiated. The decline in international oil prices led to a 2.7% month-on-month decrease in domestic oil extraction prices and a 1.5% month-on-month decrease in refined petroleum product manufacturing prices. - The new quality productivity industries maintained growth. The new driving forces for development grew steadily, and the prices of related industries rebounded year-on-year. The prices of photovoltaic equipment and component manufacturing turned from a decline to an increase, with a growth rate of 0.8%; the prices of waste resource comprehensive utilization industries increased by 0.9% year-on-year. - Consumer demand continued to provide support. The demand for upgraded consumption continued to increase. The prices of arts and crafts and ceremonial supplies manufacturing increased by 14.7%, the prices of sports ball manufacturing increased by 4.0%, and the prices of nutritional food manufacturing increased by 1.8%. - Overall, the year-on-year recovery of PPI in the third quarter was mainly affected by the low-base effect and anti-involution market expectations. By industry, non-ferrous metal prices were relatively strong, while ferrous metal prices were relatively weak due to slow recovery of downstream demand and inventory accumulation; in September, international crude oil prices were weak due to geopolitical factors, and the ex-factory prices of related petrochemical products also declined. As the steady growth plans for various industries are gradually implemented and the effects of anti-involution policies are further manifested, the subsequent industrial product prices will follow the demand trend. Attention should be paid to whether there will be incremental policy promotion in the fourth quarter, and industrial product prices may maintain a weak pattern [9][10]. 3. 9 - Month Inflation Decline Convergence - CPI - CPI turned from flat to an increase on a month-on-month basis, and the year-on-year decline narrowed. In September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year (with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month), and turned from flat to an increase of 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, expanding for the 5th consecutive month, and it returned to above 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. From January to September, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. - The year-on-year decline of food prices slightly expanded. Food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs decreased by 17.0%, 13.7%, and 13.5% respectively year-on-year; the prices of fresh fruits decreased by 4.2% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, food prices increased by 0.7% in September, among which the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits all showed seasonal increases. - The increase of non-food prices expanded. Non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year. Among industrial consumer goods, the prices of gold jewelry and platinum jewelry increased by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively year-on-year; the prices of household appliances and household daily sundries increased by 5.5% and 3.2% respectively year-on-year. - Service consumption maintained stable growth. Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Among them, the prices of medical services and household services increased by 1.9% and 1.6% respectively year-on-year; affected by factors such as the end of the summer vacation and the misaligned Mid-Autumn Festival, the prices of airplane tickets and hotel accommodation decreased by 1.7% and 1.5% respectively year-on-year. - The year-on-year decline of CPI in September narrowed marginally to -0.3%, mainly due to the carry-over effect. The continuous expansion of the core CPI increase and its return to above 1% indicate that domestic consumer demand continues to recover under the support of macro policies. In the short term, food prices continue to decline, and durable goods prices face downward pressure, so the improvement of CPI in the fourth quarter may be weak [26][27]. 4. Appendix: CPI and PPI Data for September 2025 - In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. Among them, the CPI in urban areas decreased by 0.2%, and that in rural areas decreased by 0.5%; food prices decreased by 4.4%, and non-food prices increased by 0.7%; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.8%, and service prices increased by 0.6%. From January to September, the average national consumer price decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. In September, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. Among them, the CPI in urban areas remained flat, and that in rural areas increased by 0.2%; food prices increased by 0.7%, and non-food prices decreased by 0.1%; consumer goods prices increased by 0.3%, and service prices decreased by 0.3%. - In September, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, affecting the CPI (consumer price index) to decrease by about 0.74 percentage points. Among food items, the prices of fresh vegetables decreased by 13.7%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.35 percentage points; the prices of eggs decreased by 11.9%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.08 percentage points; the prices of livestock and meat decreased by 8.4%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.27 percentage points, among which the prices of pork decreased by 17.0%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.26 percentage points; the prices of fresh fruits decreased by 4.2%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.09 percentage points; the prices of grains decreased by 0.7%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.01 percentage points; the prices of aquatic products increased by 0.9%, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.02 percentage points. The prices of the other seven major categories increased in six and decreased in one. Among them, the prices of other supplies and services, household supplies and services, and clothing increased by 9.9%, 2.2%, and 1.7% respectively, and the prices of medical care, education, culture, and entertainment, and housing increased by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 0.1% respectively; the prices of transportation and communication decreased by 2.0%. - In September, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol increased by 0.5% on a month-on-month basis, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.13 percentage points. Among food items, the prices of fresh vegetables increased by 6.1%, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.13 percentage points; the prices of eggs increased by 2.7%, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.02 percentage points; the prices of fresh fruits increased by 1.7%, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.03 percentage points; the prices of aquatic products decreased by 1.8%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.04 percentage points; the prices of pork decreased by 0.7%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.01 percentage points. The prices of the other seven major categories increased in four, remained flat in one, and decreased in two. Among them, the prices of other supplies and services and clothing increased by 1.3% and 0.7% respectively, and the prices of household supplies and services and medical care increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively; the prices of housing remained flat; the prices of transportation and communication and education, culture, and entertainment decreased by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. - In September 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat on a month-on-month basis. The purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, and increasing by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. From January to September, the average producer price index for industrial products decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.2%. - In September, among the producer prices for industrial products, the prices of means of production decreased by 2.4%, affecting the total level of producer prices for industrial products to decrease by about 1.81 percentage points. Among them, the prices of the mining industry decreased by 9.0%, the prices of the raw material industry decreased by 2.9%, and the prices of the processing industry decreased by 1.7%. The prices of means of subsistence decreased by 1.7%, affecting the total level of producer prices for industrial products to decrease by about 0.45 percentage points. Among them, the prices of food decreased by 1.7%, the prices of clothing decreased by 0.3%, the prices of general daily necessities increased by 0.7%, and the prices of durable consumer goods decreased by 3.9%. - Among the purchase prices for industrial producers, the prices of fuel and power decreased by 8.1%, the prices of chemical raw materials decreased by 5.5%, the prices of agricultural and sideline products decreased by 5.4%, the prices of building materials and non-metals decreased by 4.5%, the prices of ferrous metal materials decreased by 2.9%, the prices of textile raw materials decreased by 1.7%; the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 6.6%. - In September, among the producer prices for industrial products, the prices of means of production remained flat. Among them, the prices of the mining industry increased by 1.2%, the prices of the raw material industry remained flat, and the prices of the processing industry decreased by 0.1%. The prices of means of subsistence decreased by 0.2%, affecting the total level of producer prices for industrial products to decrease by about 0.04 percentage points. Among them, the prices of food decreased by 0.1%, the prices of clothing remained flat, the prices of general daily necessities increased by 0.2%, and the prices of durable consumer goods decreased by 0.4%. - Among the purchase prices for industrial producers, the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 1.2%, the prices of fuel and power increased by 0.5%, the prices of ferrous metal materials increased by 0.4%; the prices of building materials and non-metals decreased by 0.6%, the prices of chemical raw materials decreased by 0.4%, the prices of agricultural and sideline products decreased by 0.2%, the prices of textile raw materials decreased by 0.1% [41][43][45]. 5. National Bureau of Statistics Urban Department Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan's Interpretation of CPI and PPI Data for September 2025 - In September, the consumer market generally operated smoothly. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for the 5th consecutive month. The in-depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market and the continuous optimization of the market competition order led to the producer price index (PPI) for industrial products remaining flat on a month-on-month basis; it decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. - CPI turned from flat to an increase on a month-on-month basis, and the core CPI year-on-year increase rebounded to 1%. CPI increased on a month-on-month basis, turning from flat to an increase of 0.1%. Among them, food prices increased by 0.7% on a month-on-month basis, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, affecting CPI to increase by about 0.13 percentage points on a month-on-month basis. Among food items, the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, mutton, and beef all showed seasonal increases, with the increase ranging from 0.9% to 6.1%; the supply of pork and aquatic products was sufficient, and the prices decreased by 0.7% and 1.8% respectively. The prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy increased by 0.5%, affecting CPI to increase by about 0.12 percentage points on a month-on-month basis. Among them, affected by the increase in international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry prices increased by 6.5%; with the new autumn clothing season, clothing prices increased by 0.8%; the prices of cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods, household appliances, and household daily sundries increased by 0

Inflation Analysis - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, improving by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.5% in March from -0.1% in February, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[10] - Food CPI year-on-year was -1.4%, but the decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[9] PPI Trends - March PPI year-on-year fell by 2.5%, with production materials down by 2.8%, marking an increase in the decline by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors experienced the largest declines, with coal mining PPI down by 14.9% year-on-year[18] - Manufacturing and construction sectors showed seasonal demand expansion, but overall industrial demand remains weak, impacting PPI negatively[23] Future Outlook - April CPI is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, primarily driven by food and service sectors, but seasonal factors may lead to a decline in food prices[22] - PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic demand, with potential policy adjustments to stimulate growth[23]