Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities emphasizes a micro-operational quality investment strategy for the export chain in 2026, focusing on sectors benefiting from recovery and those that can navigate trade changes [1] Demand and Supply Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue a weak recovery with loose monetary policy and supply chain restructuring. The U.S. shows resilience, Europe is seeking a bottom, and emerging markets are experiencing divergence [2] - The price outlook indicates a temporary halt in the weakening of the U.S. dollar index, with the difference between U.S. CPI and Chinese PPI remaining significant, suggesting strong support for the profitability of Chinese export companies [2] Market Concerns and Projections - Concerns in the market include macro data deficiencies and a renewed recession narrative. The mid-term elections in the U.S. are expected to stimulate the economy, supported by AI and re-industrialization trends [3] - In Europe, energy vulnerabilities and fiscal constraints are likely to hinder recovery, with attention on marginal changes in energy prices [3] - Emerging markets face exchange rate risks and high interest rate pressures, leading to increased divergence among countries [3] Investment Themes - Three main investment themes identified include: 1. Onshore industrial transfer (textile and apparel equipment, metallurgical equipment) 2. Resource advantage countries (engineering machinery, mining machinery, electrical equipment) 3. Cyclical recovery (transportation chain, engineering machinery) [4] Investment Opportunities in U.S. Exports - Selected companies for U.S. export opportunities include: - Star Technology (002444) - Quan Feng Holdings - Creative Technology* - Ousheng Electric (301187) - AIPCB equipment: Dazhu Laser (002008) - Diesel power: Weichai Power (000338) - Aerial work platforms: Zhejiang Dingli (603338) - Consumer discretionary: Taotao Vehicle (301345) [5] Investment Opportunities in Non-U.S. Exports - Companies for stable long-term non-U.S. exports include: - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) - XCMG Machinery (000425) - Shantui Construction Machinery (000680) - Agricultural machinery: Lvtian Machinery (605259), Zongshen Power (001696) - Smelting equipment: Zhongzhong Technology (603135) - Textile and apparel equipment: Honghua Digital Science, Jack Technology (603337) - Transportation: Yutong Bus (600066), King Long Automobile (600686), Longxin General (603766), Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913), Chunfeng Power (603129) [6]

Group 1: Tencent Holdings Analysis - The report anticipates Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue to reach 188.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [3] - The breakdown of revenue includes value-added services at 91.6 billion yuan (YoY +11%), online advertising at 36.7 billion yuan (YoY +22%), and financial technology and enterprise services at 58.9 billion yuan (YoY +11%) [3] - The expected gross margin for Q3 2025 is 56%, with a gross profit of 105.1 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year [3] Group 2: Gaming Sector Insights - Q3 2025 gaming revenue is projected to grow by 14%, with domestic and overseas markets increasing by 8% and 29% respectively [4] - The game "Delta Force" is expected to generate over 8 billion yuan in a single quarter, indicating strong growth potential [4] - Overseas, Supercell's "Clash Royale" is achieving record highs, contributing to the overall growth momentum [4] Group 3: Advertising and Marketing Services - The marketing services segment is expected to see a 22% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, driven primarily by the WeChat ecosystem [4] - The collaboration of content ecosystem and AI capabilities is enhancing advertising efficiency and conversion rates [4] Group 4: Financial Technology and Cloud Services - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 11% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with stable payment services and double-digit growth in wealth management and micro-loan services [4] - The cloud business is expected to accelerate, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 20% [4] Group 5: Mechanical Sector Analysis - The report reviews two rounds of Sino-U.S. trade friction, noting that both rounds led to initial declines followed by significant recoveries in the mechanical sector [6][7][8] - The second round of trade friction saw quicker market reactions, with mechanical stocks recovering faster compared to the first round [8] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the mechanical export sector, highlighting companies like Juxing Technology and Chuangfeng Power as key recommendations [8] Group 6: Consumer Electronics Sector - The report forecasts a 29.95% year-on-year revenue increase for Feirongda in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit expected to rise by over 110% [10] - The company is experiencing growth in AI server cooling solutions, with significant orders and market penetration [11] - The consumer electronics market is rebounding, with global smartphone shipments increasing for eight consecutive quarters [13] Group 7: New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle sector is showing positive development, with increasing capacity utilization and stable project orders [14] - The company is enhancing its product structure and operational efficiency, contributing to steady improvements in overall profitability [14]

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The company specializes in copper cultural products, providing a variety of items such as copper ornaments and sculptures, and is ranked first in the Chinese market for copper cultural craft products with projected sales revenue of 1.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 7.3% from 2019 to 2024, which is 1.8% higher than the overall growth rate [6] - The restaurant industry is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in store numbers and a rise in market heat in first-tier cities during Q1 2025, driven by policy stimuli that are expected to improve demand [10] - In April 2025, retail sales in the gold and silver jewelry category increased by 25.3% year-on-year, supported by a low base and high investment demand for value preservation [15] - April 2025 fiscal data showed improvements in both revenue and expenditure, with notable increases in infrastructure-related spending and a recovery in the land market, supported by the issuance of new special bonds [21] - The AI server power market is projected to reach a scale of 35.1 to 45.5 billion yuan in 2025, driven by the rapid growth of AI and increasing power demand [27] Group 2: Company Insights - The company "Mingming is Busy" has rapidly expanded its business through a franchise model, achieving over 10,000 stores by 2024, with a GMV of 55.5 billion yuan [42] - The coal industry is experiencing a decline in operating revenue and cash flow, but overall debt repayment capacity remains strong, indicating manageable credit risk despite high leverage levels [33] - The mechanical industry has seen a double-digit export growth in excavators, tractors, and mining machinery to North America, despite facing adverse impacts from tariffs [48]