（来源：锦桥纺织网） 近期，有消息称2026年棉花种植政策可能出现调整，如果整体植棉面积减少，棉花总产量可能减少，将 对供需本来就存在缺口的棉市形成利多支撑。不过由于目前政策尚未明确，且即使政策明确，政策的意 图也是引导理性种植，促使非宜棉区退耕，保护地下水，棉花产量减少幅度可能有限。另外，在国家目 标价格政策保护背景下，新疆种植棉花的收益及稳定性依然优于其他作物，预计新年度植棉意愿依然较 强。 除政策以外，意外天气的影响也可能打开郑棉的上方空间。笔者认为，意外天气带来的盘面驱动可能大 于政策落地的影响。不过天气因素存在很大的不确定性，需在棉花种植及生长期持续关注，且一般影响 为阶段性的。 目前美棉出口签约、装船较平淡。相关数据显示，2025/26年度累计出口签约及累计装船量处历年同期 偏低位置。从销售签约看，东南亚对美棉购买具有持续性，美棉出口签约、装船至中国的累计数量则处 历史同期底部位置。近年来，中国对棉花的采购转向巴西，除订单需求定向采购美棉外，多使用新疆 棉、巴西棉进行替代。 当前为巴西棉出口旺盛的时间窗口。巴西棉存在成本优势，性价比较高。预计巴西棉出口旺盛期将持续 到2026年3月。在巴西棉抢占出 ...

棉系周报：销售情况维持 棉价震荡偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 221/221/221 2 ...

棉系周报：销售进度维 棉价震荡偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 ...

棉系周报：新棉销售较快 棉价震荡偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 辅 ...

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Acquisition Enters Peak, Cotton Prices Fluctuate Slightly Higher [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the US cotton market will likely remain range - bound, while the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to show a slightly bullish trend in the short term due to stable acquisition prices and unchanged demand [42]. Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals have changed little, and the market is expected to move sideways. The cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton as of October 17, 2025, is 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the annual production forecast, 27% slower than the same period last year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are 71% and 77.8% respectively, with the quarterly ratio down 2.8 percentage points month - on - month. As of September 18, 2025, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54%, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase, with 471,000 tons purchased by textile mills and 98,000 tons unsold [8]. - **Brazil**: As of October 17, the soybean sowing progress in Mato Grosso has accelerated to about 44%, about 18 percentage points faster than the same period last year, which is favorable for subsequent cotton sowing [8]. - **India**: The 2024/25 cotton balance sheet remains stable compared to last month. The beginning inventory increased by 170,000 tons, production decreased by 220,000 tons, imports increased by 400,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 20,000 tons, exports decreased by 180,000 tons, and the ending inventory increased by 520,000 tons compared to the previous year. The market expects the 2025/26 production to be between 5.525 million and 5.61 million tons [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons, total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The domestic new cotton harvest is in full swing. As of October 22, 2025, the cumulative public inspection volume was 1,013,898 tons, a 71.19% year - on - year increase. As of October 17, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a 24.06% increase from the previous week [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of October 16, the operating rate of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week. The inventory of cotton in spinning mills was equivalent to 27.10 days of stock, and the yarn inventory of spinning mills was 30 days, a 0.67% increase from the previous week [25]. - **Overall**: The acquisition progress has entered a peak, acquisition prices are stable, and the market is expected to fluctuate slightly higher in the short term [25]. Option Strategy - Volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [39]. Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The US cotton market is expected to move sideways, while the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to show a slightly bullish trend. - **Arbitrage**: Short the November contract and long the January contract [42]. Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - stream Situation**: Data on the operating rate of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton greige fabric mills, and inventory days of yarn and greige fabric are presented [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Information on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory is provided [51]. - **Basis Situation**: Data on the basis of cotton futures contracts and the basis of US upland cotton are shown [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market shows a trend of weakening oscillations. Internationally, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate, while domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker [8][27]. - In September, as new cotton enters the acquisition period, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. With high expected production in Xinjiang and low enthusiasm among ginning mills for acquisition, large - scale panic buying is not expected. There will be selling hedging pressure on the market as new cotton is listed in large quantities. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved in the peak season, the improvement is limited, and the boosting effect on the market is also limited [27][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of September 7, the boll - setting rate was 97%, the flocculation rate was 40%, the harvesting rate was 8%, and the good - quality rate was 54%. The growth was accelerating compared to the previous period, and the progress caught up with the five - year average [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of September 4, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 2.94 tons, a 47% weekly decrease and a 33% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 2.95 tons, a 16% weekly decrease and a 2% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 5, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 1671 to 20121, a reduction of 40,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **Brazil**: According to the September 2024/25 production forecast by CONAB, the total cotton production in Brazil is expected to be 4.061 million tons, an increase of 126,000 tons from the previous month [8]. - **India**: From September 4 - 10, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 66.1mm, 28.3mm higher than the normal level and 17.6mm higher than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 - September 10 was 849mm, 107.5mm higher than the normal level [8]. - **Global Situation**: According to the USDA's August global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from the previous month. The total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Outlook**: As new cotton enters the acquisition period in September, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. The downstream demand improvement is limited, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Supply Side**: The new - season cotton is growing well, maintaining a harvest expectation. As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of September 5, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.4156 million tons, a decrease of 131,400 tons (8.49%) from the previous week [27]. - **Demand Side**: Although it has entered the peak demand season, the downstream demand change is not obvious. As of mid - August, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 924,200 tons, and the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, and the gray fabric inventory was 35.14 days. As of September 11, the mainstream spinning mills' operating load was 66.5%, a 0.76% increase from the previous week [27]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The HV on the previous day was 10.44697, and the volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: The PCR on the previous day was 0.7370, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.7253. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton market will mostly oscillate in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. It is recommended to short at high prices [45]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [45]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton gray fabric load, yarn inventory days, and gray fabric inventory days are provided, showing the mid - end situation of the cotton industry [52]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Historical data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are provided [54]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of cotton and cotton yarn, including the basis of different contract months and the basis of US cotton, is provided [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the demand for cotton has not changed significantly, and cotton prices are expected to be mainly volatile. In the international market, US cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner, while in the domestic market, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend [1][8][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: There are no obvious changes in the macro - aspect. Fundamentally, the current good - to - excellent rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, so the US cotton trend is expected to be mainly volatile [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 17, the budding rate of US cotton was 97%, the boll - setting rate was 73%, the boll - opening rate was 13%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 55%. The growth progress was relatively slow, but the good - to - excellent rate was higher than the historical average [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week ending August 14, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 24,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56%; the weekly shipment volume was 28,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14% [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of August 15, the number of unsold contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract increased by 525 to 21,948, and the total number of unsold contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 876 to 44,381, equivalent to 1.01 million tons [8]. - **Brazil**: According to CONAB's August report, the total cotton output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.935 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous month [8]. - **India**: From August 14 to 20, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas in India was 108.2 mm, higher than the normal level and the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall during the rainy season was about 11% higher [8]. - **Global Situation**: According to the latest USDA August forecast, the global cotton output in August was 25.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons; the total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 1.8202 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. The sales volume has increased, and the weekly inventory shows a downward trend [25]. - **Demand Side**: It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of mid - August, the industrial inventory of cotton in cotton textile enterprises was 924,200 tons, and the yarn and fabric inventories were 27.23 days and 35.14 days respectively. The weekly data shows that the operating rate of spinning mills has increased slightly [25]. - **Comprehensive Outlook**: In the short term, the impact of the macro - level is expected to weaken. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still relatively tight, and the demand is expected to improve in August. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend [25]. 3.3 Option Trading Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 120 - day HV was 10.2496 yesterday, and the volatility increased slightly compared with the previous day [39]. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7867, and the trading volume PCR was 0.6430. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The recommendation is to sell put options [39]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The short - term impact of tariffs may weaken. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is tight, and the demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger but with limited upward space [41]. - **Specific Strategies**: Unilateral trading: It is expected that the US cotton will move in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [43]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Information on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, full - cotton fabric load, yarn inventory days, and fabric inventory days is presented through historical data charts [50]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national commercial cotton inventory, industrial inventory of spinning mills, and reserve inventory over the years are provided [52]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US cotton and the basis between cotton yarn C32S spot and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn is presented [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current cotton market is influenced by both domestic and international factors. Internationally, macro - factors have a positive impact on US cotton, with its growth and sales showing specific trends. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the short - term. The supply and demand situation at home will also affect the price trend, and macro - factors such as tariff extensions may bring uncertainties [8][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Macro - factors have a certain positive impact on US cotton, and its trend is expected to be slightly upward with oscillations. The growth progress of US cotton in planting, budding, and boll - setting is slightly slower year - on - year, but the excellent rate in the main production areas has recovered above the annual average, including in Texas. As of the week ending June 26, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased by 13% week - on - week and 66% compared to the average of the previous four weeks, while 2025/26 annual signing was 2.42 tons. The weekly shipment of 2024/25 US upland cotton increased by 39% week - on - week and 9% compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of June 27, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 252 to 25402, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 annual increased by 599 to 43715, equivalent to 990,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers on ICE decreased to 48293, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 874 compared to last week, equivalent to a decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending June 28, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 5%, a 1 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and 4.5% slower than the same period last year. The slowdown in harvesting is mainly due to the backward progress in the main production areas, which may be related to the slow growth of crops [8]. - **Global Cotton Situation**: According to the latest USDA data in June, the global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Trend**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton showed an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and it is expected to maintain this trend in the short - term [15]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - June, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.1269 million tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a decrease of 111,600 tons (3.73%) compared to last week. As of July 3, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 cotton was 6.301 million tons, 958,400 tons higher than the five - year average [15]. - **Demand Side**: Currently, it is the off - season for market consumption. In mid - June, the yarn inventory days in China were 23.86, at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46, also at a relatively low - medium level in the same period over the years. As of July 3, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 71.1%, a 0.14% decrease compared to last week, with little overall change. There was no obvious change in the downstream orders of spinning mills [15]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 30 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton yesterday was 5.6505. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on July 3 was 0.9489, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.5368, with a decrease in both call and put trading volumes. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: When the boost from new cotton purchases to the market is limited, if the demand side does not show obvious improvement, the price may weaken. If the demand side performs well, it will have a positive impact on the market. Tariff extensions in July and August may bring uncertainties, and if the tariff issue eases, commodity prices may strengthen [24]. - **Specific Strategies**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will be slightly upward with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show an oscillating and slightly upward trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to sell put options [24]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report presents the internal and external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, as well as the price trends of domestic cotton and imported cotton under 1% tariff [26]. - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [30]. - **Basis Situation**: It includes the basis situations of cotton in different months and the basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the cotton market at home and abroad, suggesting that the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger due to macro - factors, and the trend of US cotton is also expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. It also provides corresponding trading strategies for options and futures [7][13][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market Outlook**: Due to weather uncertainties and potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the US cotton market is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [7]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of May 11, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 28%, 4% slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The drought index in the main production areas and Texas continued to decline [7]. - **US Cotton Sales**: In the week ending May 8, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 2.77 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 86% and a 2% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Weekly shipments were 7.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17% and a 5% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [7]. - **CFTC Position**: As of May 9, the number of un - priced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2507 contract increased by 146 to 18,566, and the total number of un - priced seller contracts in the 24/25 season also increased by 146 to 18,566, equivalent to 420,000 tons [7]. - **Global Production and Sales Forecast**: According to the latest USDA data in May, the total cotton output in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a reduction of 710,000 tons compared to 2024/25; total consumption is 25.7 million tons, an increase of 304,000 tons; and the ending inventory is 17.06 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons [7]. - **Other Countries' Situations**: As of the week ending May 11, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 31,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. The cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.532 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7% [7]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Trend**: Zhengzhou cotton's trend was strong this week. Affected by macro factors, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [13]. - **Supply Side**: As of May 14, 2024, the cumulative public inspection of cotton in the 2024/25 season was 6,796,388 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.71%. As of May 9, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.8223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123,900 tons (a decrease of 3.14%) [13]. - **Demand Side**: It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of the week ending May 15, the cotton inventory of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was equivalent to 28.8 days, and the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises in major areas was 29.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [13]. - **Macro Aspect**: During the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks from May 10 - 11, the US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of the reciprocal tariffs, with 24% of them suspended for 90 days. China also made corresponding adjustments to counter - tariffs [13]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 120 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 10.6252, and the implied volatility of options increased slightly compared to the previous day [20]. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 is 11.2%, and that of CF509 - P - 12600 is 13.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200 is 15.1% [20]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: Due to the substantial progress in the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen under macro - level influence [22]. - **Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong due to macro - influence [22]. - **Arbitrage**: Short September and long January [22]. - **Options**: Sell call options [22]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report presents the trends of internal and external cotton price differences and the 9 - 1 price difference [24][25]. - **Mid - end Situation**: It shows the operating loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, as well as the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric [27]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprise industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [28]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It presents the basis data of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton [30].