棉系周报：需求变化不大 棉价震荡为主 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 137/137 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current cotton market is influenced by both domestic and international factors. Internationally, macro - factors have a positive impact on US cotton, with its growth and sales showing specific trends. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the short - term. The supply and demand situation at home will also affect the price trend, and macro - factors such as tariff extensions may bring uncertainties [8][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Macro - factors have a certain positive impact on US cotton, and its trend is expected to be slightly upward with oscillations. The growth progress of US cotton in planting, budding, and boll - setting is slightly slower year - on - year, but the excellent rate in the main production areas has recovered above the annual average, including in Texas. As of the week ending June 26, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased by 13% week - on - week and 66% compared to the average of the previous four weeks, while 2025/26 annual signing was 2.42 tons. The weekly shipment of 2024/25 US upland cotton increased by 39% week - on - week and 9% compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of June 27, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 252 to 25402, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 annual increased by 599 to 43715, equivalent to 990,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers on ICE decreased to 48293, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 874 compared to last week, equivalent to a decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending June 28, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 5%, a 1 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and 4.5% slower than the same period last year. The slowdown in harvesting is mainly due to the backward progress in the main production areas, which may be related to the slow growth of crops [8]. - **Global Cotton Situation**: According to the latest USDA data in June, the global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Trend**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton showed an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and it is expected to maintain this trend in the short - term [15]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - June, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.1269 million tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a decrease of 111,600 tons (3.73%) compared to last week. As of July 3, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 cotton was 6.301 million tons, 958,400 tons higher than the five - year average [15]. - **Demand Side**: Currently, it is the off - season for market consumption. In mid - June, the yarn inventory days in China were 23.86, at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46, also at a relatively low - medium level in the same period over the years. As of July 3, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 71.1%, a 0.14% decrease compared to last week, with little overall change. There was no obvious change in the downstream orders of spinning mills [15]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 30 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton yesterday was 5.6505. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on July 3 was 0.9489, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.5368, with a decrease in both call and put trading volumes. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: When the boost from new cotton purchases to the market is limited, if the demand side does not show obvious improvement, the price may weaken. If the demand side performs well, it will have a positive impact on the market. Tariff extensions in July and August may bring uncertainties, and if the tariff issue eases, commodity prices may strengthen [24]. - **Specific Strategies**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will be slightly upward with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show an oscillating and slightly upward trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to sell put options [24]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report presents the internal and external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, as well as the price trends of domestic cotton and imported cotton under 1% tariff [26]. - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [30]. - **Basis Situation**: It includes the basis situations of cotton in different months and the basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [32].

棉系周报：宏观情绪有所释放 郑棉走势略偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 GALAXY FUTURES 3 ◼ 美棉市场：考虑到当前美国天气端有一定不确定性可能会对美棉生长带来一定影响，并且考虑到未来越南等一些国家可能会继续增加对美棉的采 购，对美棉形成一定的利多影响，预计美棉走势震荡略偏强。 ◼ 美棉生长情况：截止5月11日，美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花种植率为28%，较去年同期慢4%；近五年同期平均水平在31%，较近五年同期平均水 平慢3个百分点。美棉种植进度同比偏慢，德州种植进度同比持平。天气方面，截止到5月6日，美棉主产区（93.0%）的干旱程度和覆盖率指数 117，环比-10，同比+56；德克萨斯州的干旱程度和覆盖率指数为182，环比-16，同比+92。美国主产区以及德州干旱指数继续下行。 ◼ ...