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投资策略报告:2025年消费新趋势与投资机会深度分析-20250618
Jianghai Securities· 2025-06-18 11:09
Group 1 - The report highlights the significant growth of China's consumption market, which reached 48.8 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [10][11] - Service retail sales in China grew by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, indicating a shift towards service consumption [10][18] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed 50% by 2025, driven by policy support and technological innovation, with sales growth projected at nearly 30% [23][71] Group 2 - The traditional consumption sectors are experiencing diverse growth, particularly in the automotive sector, where NEVs are the main growth driver, with sales of 1.29 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [21][22] - The home appliance market saw significant growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 1.95 trillion yuan, a 5.6% increase from the previous year, supported by government policies [28][30] - The liquor industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing stable revenue, while overall production has been declining since 2016 [33][39] Group 3 - The report identifies emerging consumption trends, such as the pet economy, which is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased pet ownership and higher spending per pet [59][60] - The潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 24% from 2022 to 2026, with retail sales projected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026 [62][74] - The beauty economy, encompassing cosmetics, personal care, and medical aesthetics, is also expanding, with the cosmetics retail sales reaching 114.9 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 3.2% year-on-year increase [69][70]
华夏时评:“苏超”和“LABUBU”,寻找新的内需增长点
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-06-06 11:37
从4月初,美国对全球贸易伙伴拿出"关税大棒",到5月份,中美经贸牵头人在日内瓦会谈迈出了解决问 题重要一步,再到之后,美国又拿出"科技大棒",一波三折,世界都在期待两个大国缓和的动向。 积极的财政政策是,中央财政发力,从而拉动地方财政和社会资金,把钱投在人口流入的地方,满足了 流动人口的生产、生活需求,自然也会激发更多更新的消费增长点。 最近火爆出圈的江苏省足球超级联赛,被简称为"苏超",在端午节假期中,成为现象级的体育赛事,成 为各方期待的拉动消费的香饽饽,门票收入、赛事周边、景区旅游、酒店餐饮,更进一步是对体育产业 的带动,对城市运营的推进。 6月5日晚,国家主席习近平应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出,"校正中美关系这艘大船的航 向,需要我们把好舵、定好向,尤其是排除各种干扰甚至破坏,这尤为重要"。特朗普表示,美方乐见 中国经济保持强劲增长,美中合作可以做成很多好事。习近平欢迎特朗普再次访华,特朗普表示诚挚感 谢。两国元首同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识,尽快举行新一轮会谈。 如此进展,令市场鼓舞,但是,做好自己的事情,争取最好的结果,依然是在谈判中赢得主动的基本 盘。如何在国内经济上,也"把好舵、 ...