今日早参 2026 年 3 月 03 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：开年出行活跃、地产成交环比改善 春节假期居民消费、出行需求旺盛，个性化、体验性需求快速释放；节后复 工复产情况好于去年同期，上海发布楼市新政"沪七条"、率先拉开节后地 产政策调整序幕，地产成交（尤其是二手房）初现边际企稳迹象；外需方 面，1-2 月港口高频指标显示出口同比或较 12 月继续上行。出行及消费方 面，春运前 27 天（2 月 2-28 日）全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 5.9%， 其中铁路/公路/水路/民航发送人员同比增长 7.4%/5.7%/19.7%/6.3%；春节 假期国内居民旅游人次/收入同比增长 19%/18.7%，商务部数据显示智能眼 镜、具身智能机器人销售额同比分别增长 47.3%、32.7%，入境游产品订单 同比增长 18.4%。出口方面，高频指标显示偏高基数下 1-2 月出口同比增速 或较 12 月回升至 12%。节后复工复产进度好于同期：农历春节对齐后，百 年建筑网全国工地复工率/劳务上工率分别高于去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of capturing "expectation differences" as a tactical asset allocation strategy, which can provide opportunities for short to medium-term investments, despite skepticism from some professional investors regarding this framework [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Capturing "Expectation Differences" - The macroeconomic fundamentals determine strategic asset allocation, while tactical asset allocation focuses on short-term opportunities, making the "expectation difference" framework reasonable [2]. - Short-term price fluctuations are more random and difficult to predict, but tactical allocations can enhance portfolio stability and improve investor experience [2]. - Even if capturing "expectation differences" is challenging, as long as the long-term win rate exceeds 50%, it can significantly contribute to reducing portfolio volatility and enhancing returns [2]. Group 2: How to Capture "Expectation Differences" - Capturing "expectation differences" involves tracking fundamental changes in specific asset classes and assessing market expectations [4]. - Fundamental tracking can utilize industry indicators such as inventory levels, supply-demand gaps, capacity utilization, and price differentials of products and raw materials [4]. - Market sentiment can be evaluated through metrics like trading volume, relative price changes, margin buying ratios, and fund allocation levels [4]. Group 3: Examples of Capturing "Expectation Differences" - In May 2025, the aluminum industry showed a significant profit increase, while analysts expected a growth rate around 0%, indicating a positive "expectation difference" [7]. - By June 2025, bank stocks were highly sought after, but analysts downgraded EPS expectations, creating a negative "expectation difference" that led to a notable market correction [11]. - In the agricultural sector, monitoring the breeding sow inventory can indicate future price movements, with historical data showing instances of both positive and negative "expectation differences" based on market sentiment [14].