提问 如何理解配置先行？ 唐军 配置先行是相对过去大家比较熟知的、从选人角度出发来做FOF投资的一种理念。配置先行的意思 是，我们先要有自己的配置框架、配置观点，然后去选择符合我们配置观点的基金经理或基金产品。 提问 做"配置先行"需要什么能力？ 截至2025年6月30日，由唐军管理的中泰天择稳健6个月持有A近2年、近1年的排名分别为3/135、2/179 （数据来源：国泰海通证券，产品分类为普通FOF低仓位）， 但我们今天更希望向您呈现的，是这位基 金经理的投资框架。 提问 用一句话来介绍，你会怎么说？ 唐军 我是一个配置先行的FOF基金经理，就是通过自上而下的配置，以FOF这种形式，希望能给投资者带 来更稳健、更高的收益风险比的投资回报。 唐军 一是要有一个相对独立或者客观的配置的 分析框架 ，这样才能有比较独立的配置观点。 二要有选择最优的配置工具来实现配置观点的能力，这就是通常所说的 优选基金的能力 。 三是要有严格的、科学的 风险预算框架 。很多人理解做配置就是对资产进行择时，这个通俗的理解其实 也没错，但择时的胜率不会很高，所以它需要有严格的风险控制，或者说在风险预算的框架体系下，我们 才能够使资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming a new anchor point for global markets, despite high valuations of US tech stocks compared to historical levels, due to strong profitability of related companies [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Environment and Investment Strategy - The current global environment is complex, with a lack of macroeconomic anchors affecting investment strategies. Traditional strategic asset allocation is challenged by the absence of long-term anchors [4][5]. - Investors should allocate more risk budget to tactical asset allocation (6-12 months) rather than strategic asset allocation (over 3 years) in the current environment [5]. - AI is identified as a significant driving force for long-term returns, surpassing macroeconomic predictions, and is currently in its first phase of development [6]. Group 2: AI and Investment Opportunities - AI infrastructure investment prospects are promising, driven by strong structural forces that will take years to fully materialize. There is confidence in infrastructure investments, particularly in renewable energy [8]. - The "Tech Seven" companies in the US have shown significant profitability growth, although their stock prices have only slightly increased this year. This disconnect between market performance and profitability presents tactical investment opportunities [6][9]. Group 3: US Tech Stocks Valuation - The technology sector remains the strongest performer in the US stock market, achieving approximately 20% returns in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 18-19%, significantly exceeding the market average of 14% [9]. - Despite slightly high valuations compared to long-term averages, traditional mean reversion principles may not apply in the new paradigm, making valuation just one of several considerations [9][10]. Group 4: Global Investment Landscape - In the next 6-12 months, a neutral stance is taken on Chinese stocks, with a preference for sectors benefiting from structural forces or policy support, particularly technology and healthcare [12]. - European tech companies are seen as having favorable conditions, especially in a local tech preference environment, while European financial stocks offer attractive dividend yields [12]. Group 5: US Treasury Market and Gold Investment - Caution is advised regarding the US Treasury market, as current pricing reflects excessive rate cut expectations, which may not align with ongoing inflation pressures [19]. - Gold is viewed as a sustainable investment, with increasing importance in portfolio diversification. Central banks are playing a larger role in gold allocation as international investors reconsider US Treasury investments [18].

导读：在伯克希尔60年的股东大会上，巴菲特意外宣告了他的谢幕。这位价值投资奠基人，很早就提到过投资的两个风险：1）本金的 永久性亏损；2）收益回报跑不赢通胀。无论是在任何一个国度，这都是每个人购买理财产品最朴素的目标。 那么，在银行理财收益率不断下行的今天，又如何满足普罗大众的投资目标呢？兴银理财在资管新规后，开启了一系列的改革。面对净 值化的转型，通过多资产的创新为老百姓守住钱袋子，并且建立统一的投研平台，形成了一套工业化、规则化、体系化的多策略管理方 式。 相比于传统的公募基金，银行理财子在多资产的投资上有着显著优势，能够涉及包括私募量化、商品、国债期货、CTA等多个另类资 产。兴银理财创新业务部的负责人叶予璋，就很好的利用了这个优势。他通过多资产配置叠加多策略优化的方式，把兴银理财的结构性 理财规模最高做到了300亿左右，创新投资部规模从100多亿做到了500多亿，多资产部门也从0做到了2500亿体量。 除此之外，兴银理财还通过量化模型改善产品收益不均匀的问题，使得用户在不同阶段购买后，获得的持有体验相差不大。这是因为， 大类资产回报又通常呈现时间和空间上的分布不均匀，理财用户产品择时能力相对较弱，对收 ...

国家金融监督管理总局近日批复同意 新华保险参与第三批保险资金 长期投资改革试点，新华保险将联 合 中国人寿等机构共同发起设立鸿鹄基金三期。新华保险相关知情人士告诉记者，鸿鹄基金三期具体 推进计划和时间表"还有待统一分配和安排"，"会尽快推进相关工作落地"。新华保险相关负责人表示， 公司坚持"战略 资产配置"和"战术资产配置"两手抓。"战略资产配置"重视长期战略布局，把服务实体经 济作为构建投资组合的底层逻辑；"战术资产配置"严格做好再平衡策略，适时启动试点基金，增加持有 型权益底仓资产，提高港股配置比例等。 (中证报) ...