2025年上半年中国普通地级市GDP十强榜单近日出炉，苏州以13002.35亿元稳居榜首，但真正的戏剧性变化发生在中段位次：南通以6581.2亿元反超佛山 （6366.87亿元），泉州首次突破6400亿大关，温州更以12.42%的增速成为最大黑马。这场洗牌背后，是沿海城市产业升级与内陆地区政策红利的双重博 弈，折射出中国区域经济正在从"规模竞争"迈向"质量竞速"的新阶段。 | | 上季度 | | 2025年上半年 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 2025 | 2024 | 增量 | 名义 | | | | 上六十 | 上未年 | | 增长率 | | 1 | 方州市 | 13002.35 | 12059.4 | 942.95 | 7.82% | | 2 | 无锡市 | 7735.15 | 7437.39 | 297.76 | 4% | | 3 | 南通市 | 6581.2 | 6286.9 | 294.3 | 4.68% | | 4 | 佛山市 | 6366.87 | 6122.89 | 243.98 | 3.98% | | 5 | 泉州市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating a complex interplay of commodity prices and domestic demand [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, supported by strong food prices and precious metals [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by oversupply in sectors such as steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month drop in PPI, while rising international oil prices provided some support [2][9][69]. - Food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and beef, saw significant increases, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.9 percentage points to -0.4% year-on-year, contributing positively to CPI [12][47][69]. Group 2: Core Commodity PPI and CPI Trends - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - The decline in prices for industries with high export ratios, such as computer communications and electrical machinery, indicates ongoing price pressures [21][70]. - Conversely, core commodity CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies, with notable price increases in durable goods and household textiles [27][70]. Group 3: Service CPI and Housing Market - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8% [30][61][71]. - The rental component of the service CPI showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average [30][71]. - The overall stability in service demand contrasts with the weaker performance of housing-related costs, indicating potential challenges in the housing market [30][71]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year [35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disruptions, low global oil inventories, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices further [35][70]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream sectors poses challenges for PPI recovery, suggesting that PPI will likely remain weak compared to CPI in the coming months [35][70].

Group 1: External Demand Exposure and Profit Elasticity - The external demand exposure of industrial revenue is estimated to be around 16.2%[3] - A 1% change in exports is expected to result in a 0.41% to 0.43% change in industrial profits[4] - The elasticity of industrial profits to final consumption growth is 0.54%, while to capital formation growth it is 0.70%[2] Group 2: Policy Implications and Required Adjustments - To offset a 1% decline in exports, a 0.76% increase in final consumption growth or a 0.59% increase in capital formation growth is needed[2] - The policy direction emphasizes boosting service consumption and removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector[2] - Investment policies focus on enhancing construction projects and urban renewal actions[2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - Industries with high export elasticity include textiles and metal smelting, while those with high elasticity to final consumption include food and tobacco[6] - The computer communication and electrical machinery sectors have significant external demand exposure and profit elasticity[6] - The construction chain industries show high elasticity to capital formation, indicating potential benefits from increased investment[6]

Core Insights - The National Taxation Administration of China is monitoring national enterprise sales revenue using value-added tax invoice data, reflecting the macroeconomic situation [1] Group 1: Sales Revenue Growth - In April, the sales revenue growth rate of national enterprises accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, continuing the steady growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year [2] - Domestic sales revenue of enterprises engaged in exports to the U.S. increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with the proportion of domestic sales in total sales rising by 2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among 31 manufacturing categories, 21 industries saw an increase in the proportion of domestic sales for enterprises exporting to the U.S. compared to the same period last year, with notable increases in the leather and footwear industry (10 percentage points) and in computer communication equipment, black metals, furniture, and food industries (over 5 percentage points) [4] - The sales revenue of industrial enterprises showed significant growth in April, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.7%, and manufacturing sales revenue increased by 4.4%, driven by policies such as "two new" [4] Group 3: Regional Performance - Economic provinces like Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing experienced strong growth in sales revenue in April, with year-on-year increases of 7.3%, 6.6%, and 5.4% respectively, significantly outpacing the national average [4] - The growth in these regions is particularly driven by innovative industries such as artificial intelligence, leading to accelerated development in equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries [4]