Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.1%[3] - Cumulative operating revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year, slightly down from 2.7% in the previous period[3] - In June, the monthly revenue growth was approximately 1.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 2: Profitability Insights - The profit decline in June narrowed to -4.3%, improving by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[4] - The contributions to June's profit growth from industrial value added, PPI, and profit margin year-on-year were +6.4, -3.6, and -6.9 percentage points, respectively[4] - Investment income is expected to contribute more significantly to profits, with June's cost, expenses, and investment income per 100 yuan of revenue being 85.2, 8.8, and 0.0 yuan, respectively[4] Group 3: Sector Analysis - In June, the profit growth of anti-involution industries improved by 3.3 percentage points to -8.0%, while non-anti-involution industries declined by 0.9 percentage points to -2.1%[5] - The profit share of midstream industries increased to 39.5%, while upstream and downstream shares were 28.6% and 21%, respectively[5] - Specific sectors like black metallurgy and automotive saw significant profit improvements, with increases of 1815.9 and 15.5 percentage points, respectively[5] Group 4: Inventory and Market Dynamics - In June, nominal inventory decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.1%, while actual inventory saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 6.7%[7] - The inventory turnover ratio remained high, indicating ongoing challenges in inventory management despite the nominal decrease[7] - The report highlights that the initial effects of anti-involution are beginning to show, with structural improvements in enterprise profits[7]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating a complex interplay of commodity prices and domestic demand [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, supported by strong food prices and precious metals [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by oversupply in sectors such as steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month drop in PPI, while rising international oil prices provided some support [2][9][69]. - Food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and beef, saw significant increases, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.9 percentage points to -0.4% year-on-year, contributing positively to CPI [12][47][69]. Group 2: Core Commodity PPI and CPI Trends - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - The decline in prices for industries with high export ratios, such as computer communications and electrical machinery, indicates ongoing price pressures [21][70]. - Conversely, core commodity CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies, with notable price increases in durable goods and household textiles [27][70]. Group 3: Service CPI and Housing Market - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8% [30][61][71]. - The rental component of the service CPI showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average [30][71]. - The overall stability in service demand contrasts with the weaker performance of housing-related costs, indicating potential challenges in the housing market [30][71]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year [35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disruptions, low global oil inventories, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices further [35][70]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream sectors poses challenges for PPI recovery, suggesting that PPI will likely remain weak compared to CPI in the coming months [35][70].

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% and an expectation of 0%[8] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, down from a previous value of -3.3% and below the expected -3.2%[8] - Month-on-month, the CPI fell by 0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 0.4%[8] Group 2: Price Divergence Analysis - Commodity prices for upstream coal and steel fell, negatively impacting the PPI, while food and platinum prices rose, supporting the CPI[2] - The core PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting tariff impacts and low capacity utilization in downstream industries, with a core PPI of -1%[21] - Core CPI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%, driven by consumer stimulus policies and increased domestic demand[3] Group 3: Service Sector Insights - The service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI unchanged at 0.8%[50] - Rent CPI showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average of 0.2%[25] Group 4: Future Outlook - Policy measures and recovery in domestic demand are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but commodity prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year[27] - The PPI is anticipated to underperform compared to the CPI due to ongoing low capacity utilization and external factors such as tariffs and global oil supply constraints[27]