2025 年 09 月 27 日 宏观研究团队 低基数与反内卷共振修复利润 ——兼评 8 月企业利润数据 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524020002 事件：2025 年 1-8 月全国规上工企利润累计同比 0.9%，前值-1.7%；营业收入累 计同比 2.3%，前值 2.3%。 低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，工业企业景气度边际回升 1、8 月工企营收小幅改善、利润增速显著转正。测算 8 月营收当月同比约 2.3%、 较前值改善了 1.2 个百分点；利润当月同比则明显回升了 21.9 个百分点至 20.4%， 连续 3 个月边际改善。拆分来看（利润增速=工业增加值*PPI*利润率同比），三 因子对 8 月利润增速的贡献分别为+5.6、-3.2、+17.7 个百分点。价（PPI）的负 贡献见底回升，利（利润率同比）由负贡献大幅转为正贡献。分类型来看，8 月 国企利润改善较快，明显好于私营和股份制工企。 2、低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，利润率同比回升。8 月工业企业每百元营 收构成中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises above designated size in August showed signs of recovery in revenue and profit, with revenue growth of 1.9% year-on-year and a significant profit increase of 20.4% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential stabilization in the industrial sector [1][7][8]. Revenue and Profit Trends - In August, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking a 1.0 percentage point acceleration from the previous month. Cumulatively, the revenue growth for the first eight months remained at 2.3%, consistent with prior values, ending a four-month slowdown [1][6][7]. - The profit total for August saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 20.4%, a recovery from a decline of 1.5% in the previous month. The cumulative profit growth for the first eight months turned positive at 0.9% [1][8][25]. Price and Volume Dynamics - The improvement in revenue in August was primarily driven by price increases, with a structure characterized by "volume contraction and price increase." The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved from -3.6% to -2.9% year-on-year, supporting profit margins [2][10][11]. - The revenue profit margin for January to August was 5.24%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.06 percentage points, but significantly better than the declines observed in June and July [2][10][11]. Industry Performance Disparities - Profit growth varied significantly across industries, with notable increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, utilities, essential consumer goods, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment. Conversely, industries like coal, black metal mining, petrochemicals, and light manufacturing experienced the largest profit declines [3][15][16]. - In August, profit growth improvements were concentrated in upstream industries, with coal, steel, and non-metallic minerals showing low-level recoveries. The beverage and tea industry saw a significant rebound in profits due to seasonal demand [3][18]. Inventory and Debt Levels - As of the end of August, nominal inventory for industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year, while actual inventory saw a decline of 0.8 percentage points, reflecting a continuous reduction trend [4][19][20]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 58%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. Capital expenditure showed a small rebound in August, indicating potential growth in investment despite low capacity utilization [4][22]. Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises is expected to remain supported in the coming months due to low profit bases from the previous year. If sustained, this could mark the first return to positive profit growth since 2022 [5][25]. - However, the current operational conditions of enterprises are not yet solid, with ongoing uncertainties in price trends and profit structures, necessitating continued policy support to enhance cash flow and profit recovery [5][26].

Core Viewpoints - The transmission effect of upstream price increases to downstream is weakening, with PPI showing marginal improvement in August due to significant recovery in commodity prices [2][10][70] - The overall PPI remained at 0% month-on-month, primarily due to low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, which hindered the reflection of upstream price increases [2][10][70] PPI Analysis - In August, PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.9%, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations [2][10][70] - Major commodities like coal and steel continued to rise, contributing positively to PPI, while international oil price declines negatively impacted domestic oil prices [2][10][70] - Downstream sectors are experiencing significant price reductions, with PPI declines in industries such as food and automobiles, which saw respective month-on-month decreases of 0.3% [2][10][70] CPI Analysis - CPI year-on-year fell to -0.4% in August, influenced by a high base from the previous year and weak food prices, with food CPI dropping by 4.3% [3][23][50] - The core CPI is expanding, with core goods CPI rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from the third batch of national subsidies [3][29][71] - Service CPI showed slight growth, supported by summer travel and healthcare service reforms, while rental prices remained weak due to high youth unemployment [4][33][62] Future Outlook - Commodity prices are expected to continue rising, but excess supply in downstream sectors may limit the transmission of price increases from upstream [4][72] - Year-end PPI is projected to recover to a maximum of -2.1%, while CPI may remain negative in Q3 but could turn positive in Q4 due to policy support for service consumption [4][72]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 0% and an expectation of -0.2%[7] - The PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, improving from -3.6% previously, aligning with market expectations[7] - The overall PPI month-on-month remained at 0%, primarily due to low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, which hindered price transmission from upstream[2] Group 2: Price Transmission and Sector Analysis - Upstream price increases contributed positively to PPI month-on-month, with a calculated impact of 0.3% from commodity prices[1] - Downstream sectors, particularly in food and automotive industries, saw PPI declines of 0.3% each, reflecting significant price drops[2] - The core CPI for core goods rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from trade-in programs[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Commodity prices are expected to continue rising, but excess supply in downstream sectors may limit the transmission of upstream price increases, keeping inflation weak throughout the year[4] - By year-end, PPI is projected to recover to a maximum of -2.1% year-on-year, while CPI may remain negative in Q3 but could turn positive in Q4[4] - Risks include potential tightening in food and energy supplies, which could further impact CPI dynamics[5]

Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.1%[3] - Cumulative operating revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year, slightly down from 2.7% in the previous period[3] - In June, the monthly revenue growth was approximately 1.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 2: Profitability Insights - The profit decline in June narrowed to -4.3%, improving by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[4] - The contributions to June's profit growth from industrial value added, PPI, and profit margin year-on-year were +6.4, -3.6, and -6.9 percentage points, respectively[4] - Investment income is expected to contribute more significantly to profits, with June's cost, expenses, and investment income per 100 yuan of revenue being 85.2, 8.8, and 0.0 yuan, respectively[4] Group 3: Sector Analysis - In June, the profit growth of anti-involution industries improved by 3.3 percentage points to -8.0%, while non-anti-involution industries declined by 0.9 percentage points to -2.1%[5] - The profit share of midstream industries increased to 39.5%, while upstream and downstream shares were 28.6% and 21%, respectively[5] - Specific sectors like black metallurgy and automotive saw significant profit improvements, with increases of 1815.9 and 15.5 percentage points, respectively[5] Group 4: Inventory and Market Dynamics - In June, nominal inventory decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.1%, while actual inventory saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 6.7%[7] - The inventory turnover ratio remained high, indicating ongoing challenges in inventory management despite the nominal decrease[7] - The report highlights that the initial effects of anti-involution are beginning to show, with structural improvements in enterprise profits[7]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating a complex interplay of commodity prices and domestic demand [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, supported by strong food prices and precious metals [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by oversupply in sectors such as steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month drop in PPI, while rising international oil prices provided some support [2][9][69]. - Food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and beef, saw significant increases, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.9 percentage points to -0.4% year-on-year, contributing positively to CPI [12][47][69]. Group 2: Core Commodity PPI and CPI Trends - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - The decline in prices for industries with high export ratios, such as computer communications and electrical machinery, indicates ongoing price pressures [21][70]. - Conversely, core commodity CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies, with notable price increases in durable goods and household textiles [27][70]. Group 3: Service CPI and Housing Market - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8% [30][61][71]. - The rental component of the service CPI showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average [30][71]. - The overall stability in service demand contrasts with the weaker performance of housing-related costs, indicating potential challenges in the housing market [30][71]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year [35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disruptions, low global oil inventories, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices further [35][70]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream sectors poses challenges for PPI recovery, suggesting that PPI will likely remain weak compared to CPI in the coming months [35][70].

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% and an expectation of 0%[8] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, down from a previous value of -3.3% and below the expected -3.2%[8] - Month-on-month, the CPI fell by 0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 0.4%[8] Group 2: Price Divergence Analysis - Commodity prices for upstream coal and steel fell, negatively impacting the PPI, while food and platinum prices rose, supporting the CPI[2] - The core PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting tariff impacts and low capacity utilization in downstream industries, with a core PPI of -1%[21] - Core CPI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%, driven by consumer stimulus policies and increased domestic demand[3] Group 3: Service Sector Insights - The service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI unchanged at 0.8%[50] - Rent CPI showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average of 0.2%[25] Group 4: Future Outlook - Policy measures and recovery in domestic demand are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but commodity prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year[27] - The PPI is anticipated to underperform compared to the CPI due to ongoing low capacity utilization and external factors such as tariffs and global oil supply constraints[27]