证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 纳科诺尔（832522） 2025 年半年报点评：在手订单快速恢复，等 静压设备预计 H2 推出 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 945.51 | 1,053.51 | 1,041.00 | 1,371.74 | 1,879.81 | | 同比（%） | 25.03 | 11.42 | (1.19) | 31.77 | 37.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 123.83 | 161.83 | 164.08 | 240.21 | 373.99 | | 同比（%） | 9.33 | 30.69 | 1.38 | 46.40 | 55.69 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.79 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.53 | 2.39 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 74.05 | 56.66 | 55.89 | 38.17 | 24.52 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the solid-state battery equipment industry [4]. Core Insights - Solid-state batteries, utilizing solid electrolytes, are recognized as the most promising new battery technology, addressing the low energy density and safety concerns of current lithium-ion batteries. The industry is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan for all-solid-state batteries and 180 billion yuan for the solid-state battery industry by 2030 [1][33]. - The production processes for solid-state batteries will undergo significant changes, leading to new equipment demands. Key processes include dry electrode preparation, electrolyte transfer coating, and isostatic pressing technology, which will require new production equipment compared to traditional liquid lithium batteries [1][2][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Solid-State Battery: Future Battery Technology Direction - Solid-state batteries replace liquid electrolytes with solid electrolytes, significantly enhancing performance and safety, making them the future direction for power batteries [15][19]. - Solid-state batteries offer high energy density, safety, long cycle life, and a wide operating temperature range, addressing critical issues in current power batteries [20][30]. 2. Technology Iteration and Equipment Development Opportunities - The manufacturing processes for all-solid-state batteries will change, creating new equipment needs. The introduction of new processes and equipment upgrades will significantly increase investment in solid-state battery production lines [2][38]. - The front-end processes will see the introduction of dry electrode and solid electrolyte film preparation equipment, which is more compatible with solid-state batteries [2][41]. - Stacking technology will become mainstream in the mid-process, with isostatic pressing introduced to solve issues related to porosity and insufficient contact [2][54]. - High-pressure formation equipment will be necessary in the later stages to optimize battery performance by enhancing contact area and reducing interface resistance [2][63]. - Soft-pack packaging is highly compatible with solid-state batteries, providing advantages in thermal management and structural stability [2][66]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in solid-state battery equipment, including Naconor, Honggong Technology, Mannester, Liyuanheng, Xianhui Technology, Xinyuren, Xiandai Intelligent, Hangke Technology, Yinghe Technology, Lianying Laser, and Haimeixing [3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a focus on solid-state battery equipment suppliers, particularly leading companies such as XianDao Intelligent, laser welding equipment manufacturers like LianYing Laser, and formation and capacity equipment suppliers like HangKe Technology [2]. Core Viewpoints - Solid-state batteries possess high energy density and safety, with broad future application scenarios. The transition from liquid to solid-state batteries is expected to enhance energy density significantly, with solid-state batteries projected to achieve energy densities exceeding 500 Wh/kg by 2030 [2][11]. - The dry process for all-solid-state batteries opens new demand for equipment, with significant changes in the production process across all stages, including the elimination of solvents and the introduction of new assembly techniques [2][10]. - Domestic key equipment companies are making strides in solid-state battery production, with several firms already achieving pilot production lines and partnerships for research and development [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. High Energy Density and Safety of Solid-State Batteries - Solid-state batteries utilize solid electrolytes, offering advantages in energy density and safety compared to traditional liquid batteries. They can achieve energy densities of 300-500 Wh/kg, significantly higher than liquid batteries [11][12]. - The solid-state design eliminates risks associated with liquid electrolyte leakage and enhances thermal stability, making them suitable for various applications, including consumer electronics and electric vehicles [11][12]. 2. Dry Process as the Mainline for All-Solid-State Batteries - The dry process introduces new production techniques that enhance efficiency and reduce costs. Key changes include the elimination of solvent use and the introduction of new assembly methods that improve the overall production process [2][10]. 3. Key Domestic Equipment Companies - Notable companies in the solid-state battery equipment sector include: - XianDao Intelligent: First to achieve full-line equipment for solid-state batteries. - LianYing Laser: Leading in laser welding equipment, expected to benefit from increased demand in solid-state battery assembly [2][12]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in solid-state battery equipment suppliers, particularly those involved in full-line production and advanced technologies, as they are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth [2][12]. 5. Policy Support for Solid-State Battery Development - The Chinese government is actively promoting the development of solid-state batteries through various initiatives, aiming for significant advancements in production capabilities by 2027 [2][39][45].

Summary of Solid-State Battery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solid-state battery equipment industry is entering a new cycle, with a recovery in liquid battery demand expected in 2025, leading to a projected 50% year-on-year growth in orders for lithium battery equipment companies, with some companies seeing orders double [1][4] - Companies such as Galaxy, XianDao Intelligent, and XingYun Co. are performing well in the solid-state battery equipment sector, with positive second-quarter performance expectations and anticipated deliveries of related equipment [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - The transition to solid-state battery technology will drive a new wave of growth, with full solid-state battery solutions needing to address cost, safety, and energy density [1][7] - The production process for solid-state batteries is shifting towards dry processing, with increased precision requirements for dry rolling, which is expected to increase the number of rolls from four to as many as sixteen [1][9] - The demand for stacking machines has become essential in solid-state battery production, leading to increased needs for front-end technologies such as glue frame printing and composite transfer [1][11] - Isostatic pressing equipment is being utilized to enhance the contact between solid-state battery components, improving density and reducing lithium dendrite growth [1][12] Equipment and Technology Developments - The initial charging and discharging processes are expected to see a 3 to 5 times increase in the formation and capacity stages, necessitating higher performance testing equipment [2][14] - The solid-state battery equipment sector exhibits significant elasticity, with the value of equipment for solid-state batteries expected to at least double compared to liquid batteries during initial mass production [3] Market Dynamics - The solid-state battery industry is anticipated to see substantial advancements in 2025, with a recovery phase for liquid batteries and a new cycle for lithium battery equipment driven by technological updates [4][16] - Key companies to watch in the lithium-ion and solid-state lithium-ion supply chain include Nako, Honggong, and leading firms in traditional and emerging solid-state fields such as Lianying Laser and Galaxy Technology [15] Material Developments - Lithium sulfide and metal anodes are identified as strong long-term material development directions, with significant market potential if production costs can be reduced [17][19] - The market for lithium sulfide is projected to be lucrative, with potential profits reaching 1.5 to 2 billion yuan at lower price points [19] - The development of lithium metal anodes is gaining attention, with breakthroughs expected to allow their application in semi-solid and liquid batteries [20] Additional Insights - Emulsions as a cost-reduction strategy and rigid skeleton membranes for electrolyte film processes are emerging as potential growth areas [21] - The performance of ternary cathode materials is improving due to solid-state technology, with companies actively progressing in high-pressure samples [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements in solid-state battery production, emphasizing the delivery of dry process preparation equipment and the significant investment in production lines compared to lithium batteries [1]. Group 1: Equipment and Production - Solid-state battery production line equipment delivery has commenced, with dry process preparation equipment accounting for 30%-40% of the production line investment [1]. - The investment in production lines is reported to be double that of lithium batteries, indicating a strong market shift towards solid-state technology [1]. - Two companies have successfully developed dry process electrode membranes and dry roller press equipment, showcasing their comprehensive layout in the front-end and mid-stream sectors [1]. Group 2: Technology and Market Potential - The metal lithium anode technology route is considered more definitive compared to sulfide lithium electrolyte, suggesting a clearer path for development [1]. - The performance growth of metal lithium anode products from two companies is expected to be more certain, indicating a promising market outlook for these technologies [1].

Summary of Solid-State Battery Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The solid-state battery technology is identified as a future trend, driven by key factors such as energy density and safety, presenting investment opportunities particularly in the equipment sector during the expansion and pilot testing phases [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Solid-State Battery Advantages**: Solid-state batteries are viewed as the ultimate solution due to their higher energy density and safety, aligning with the overall direction of battery technology development [2][3] - **Investment in Equipment**: The equipment sector is expected to see continuous investment opportunities this year, especially for expansion and pilot testing, which require substantial equipment support [2][3] - **Cost and Production**: The production line for solid-state batteries requires approximately 1.1 billion yuan for front-end equipment and about 80 million yuan for mid-stage equipment, with total investment being double that of traditional liquid batteries [1][6] Key Technologies and Processes - **Half-Solid-State Battery Process**: The core technologies include in-situ curing and stacking techniques, which are compatible with existing liquid production lines and reduce costs while addressing interface issues [1][3] - **Full Solid-State Battery Innovations**: The full solid-state battery process replaces traditional wet methods with dry electrode manufacturing, increasing the value of single equipment by over 50% [1][4] - **Lithium Sulfide Cost Impact**: Lithium sulfide accounts for approximately 70% to 80% of the solid-state battery electrolyte cost, with potential cost reductions if domestic production increases [6] Equipment Investment Breakdown - **Front-End Equipment**: Investment focuses on dry electrode preparation and lithium sulfide electrolyte preparation, with significant suppliers including Xingdao, Manste, and Hai Moxing [7][11] - **Mid-Stage Equipment**: Investment is concentrated on stacking and isostatic pressing, with key suppliers being Liyuanheng and Hai Moxing [8][10] - **Investment Composition**: The front-end production segment includes dry electrodes, rolling film formation, and laser/ion beam cutting, with significant attention on the electrode and rolling film segments [9][10] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - **Current Market Status**: The solid-state battery market is currently in a "mid-game pause," but equipment companies still present investment opportunities, with expected growth of 30% to 40% in the future [17] - **Focus on Undervalued Companies**: There is a recommendation to prioritize investment in undervalued equipment companies before expanding focus to material sectors [17] Additional Important Insights - **Technological Barriers**: The isostatic pressing stage is identified as a critical bottleneck with low domestic production rates, indicating a need for increased focus on companies involved in this area [5][8] - **Emerging Technologies**: PVD and CVD technologies are highlighted for their potential applications in solid-state battery manufacturing, particularly in lithium metal film preparation and copper foil treatment [16][17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the solid-state battery industry, highlighting investment opportunities, technological advancements, and market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has successfully delivered multiple sets of solid-state battery core equipment to a leading global battery manufacturer, enhancing its recognition in the industry [5] - The company has made early and rapid advancements in solid-state battery equipment, capturing significant potential since 2018 and establishing deep collaborations with major battery manufacturers [8] - The company's solid-state battery equipment technology is leading, with a new line solution reducing overall investment costs by 30% and improving battery performance by 40% [8] - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 1.54 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.42 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 23X, 18X, and 15X [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 13.84 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.8% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.54 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 438.4% [7] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 35.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.8% [7]

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Group 1: US-China Economic Relations - The US-China economic talks have made substantial progress, leading to a reduction in tariffs on each other's goods, which is better than expected [2] - The effective US tariff rate is projected to decrease from 28.4% to 15.5%, alleviating inflation risks in the US and reducing export risks for China [2] - The future trajectory of China's domestic economy will largely depend on the strength of macroeconomic policies, particularly fiscal policy [2] Group 2: US Stock Market Performance - US stock markets experienced significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.35%, the S&P 500 increasing by 3.26%, and the Dow Jones gaining 1160.72 points, marking new highs since March [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 5.4%, reaching its highest level since April 4, with notable increases in various Chinese concept stocks [1] Group 3: Apple iPhone Pricing - Apple is considering raising the prices of the upcoming iPhone 17 series, particularly the Pro models, due to increased costs associated with new technology and materials [3] - The cost of the A19 Pro chip is expected to rise by 35%, and the BOM cost is projected to increase by 19% due to new design features [3] Group 4: AI and Robotics Collaborations - Huawei and UBTECH Robotics signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement to innovate in the fields of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots, leveraging Huawei's AI infrastructure [5] - CloudWalk Technology's "Calm Multi-modal Large Model" ranked among the top three globally, surpassing models from Google, and has been implemented in various projects to enhance operational efficiency by over 20% [6] Group 5: Solid-State Battery Equipment - XianDao Intelligent has received repeated orders for solid-state battery production equipment, having established itself as a provider of comprehensive solutions in this field [7] - The company has successfully delivered equipment to leading battery manufacturers and automakers across multiple countries, receiving high recognition from clients [7] Group 6: New Features in Digital Platforms - Alipay has launched a voice call feature that displays the real names of users during calls, enhancing communication clarity and security [8] - Tencent's WeChat and QQ have expanded their earthquake warning features to cover the entire country, providing enhanced notifications for potentially destructive earthquakes [9] Group 7: AI Development in Japan - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen model has become a foundational tool for AI development in Japan, ranking sixth in a comprehensive evaluation of AI models [10] - The model has been downloaded over 300 million times globally, with more than 100,000 derivative models created, establishing it as the leading open-source model [10]