Group 1 - NVIDIA plans to set a competitive price for the H200 AI chip aimed at the Chinese market, with only a slight increase compared to the previous H20 model [1][3] - The Trump administration's easing of export restrictions for the H200 chip has led to skepticism about its demand in China, especially as the country pushes for domestic technology supply chain transformation [3][4] - Analysts suggest that NVIDIA's aggressive pricing strategy could help overcome market doubts and make the H200 chip appealing to customers [3] Group 2 - A cluster solution consisting of eight H200 chips is priced at approximately $200,000, which is comparable to the H20 cluster price, despite significant performance upgrades [4] - The H200 chip boasts over a 6x performance improvement compared to the H20, with specifications indicating a 47% increase in HBM capacity and a 20% increase in HBM bandwidth [4][5] - NVIDIA plans to deliver the first batch of H200 chips to China by mid-February next year, pending approval from U.S. and Chinese regulatory authorities [5]

Group 1 - Semiconductor stocks continue to weaken, with notable declines in companies such as SMIC down 3.79% to HKD 62.25, Hua Hong Semiconductor down 2.97% to HKD 65.3, ASMPT down 2.39% to HKD 73.4, and Shanghai Fudan down 2.24% to HKD 40.16 [1] - Former President Trump announced that NVIDIA will be allowed to export its H200 AI chips to "approved customers" including China, with the condition that the U.S. government receives a 25% share from these sales. This move may accelerate AI model training in China but could pressure domestic AI chip manufacturers in the short term [1] - Broadcom is expanding its market share in the AI chip sector due to increased demand for custom chips driven by large-scale data center construction. However, the CEO indicated that the gross margin for Q1 2026 will be lower than the previous three quarters due to a higher proportion of AI business, raising investor concerns about the return on investment in AI by large tech companies [1]

Macro Overview - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [4][56] - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic policy, focusing on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while addressing local fiscal difficulties [4][5] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the third time this year to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with Chairman Powell stating that there is no preset path for monetary policy [9][10][56] Equity Market Insights - The December Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the expected rate cut, with a dovish overall stance and unchanged expectations for two more rate cuts in the future [2][57] - The market is expected to focus on the upcoming U.S. fiscal measures and the technical expansion of the balance sheet starting December 12, indicating potential re-inflation in the economy [2][57] - Domestic exports remain strong, and overall economic conditions are positive, with a recommendation to maintain a neutral position in equity strategies [2][57] Industry Strategies - The current trading logic is driven by structural demand led by external factors, with opportunities in overseas computing stocks and beta opportunities in non-ferrous metals [2][57] - The strategy suggests a "barbell" approach, focusing on sectors such as communications, non-ferrous metals, defense, machinery, and electronics, while being cautious in sectors like food and beverage, real estate, pharmaceuticals, construction, and computing [2][57] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a rapid rise due to favorable policy expectations, but confidence in the market remains unstable, leading to a significant pullback [3] - The yield on 30-year, 10-year, and 1-year government bonds changed by -1 basis point, closing at 2.25%, 1.84%, and 1.39% respectively [3] - The overall bond market is expected to remain under pressure as the equity market sentiment approaches a bottom, with potential for a pulse in equity market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference [3][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on future market trends rather than historical prices or personal cost bases when making investment decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - CICC's involvement in Vanke's rescue plan has led to mixed market reactions, with optimistic views pushing Vanke's stock to a limit up, while pessimistic views suggest a high probability of market corrections [1]. - The recent political bureau meeting and economic conference did not exceed expectations, and inflation data indicates that the story of "PPI turning positive" remains distant [3]. - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline in long-term bond yields due to a balanced and loose funding environment, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan through reverse repos [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Reactions - November's PPI was slightly below expectations, causing minor market disturbances related to mortgage interest subsidies, while the stock market showed signs of recovery after initial weakness [6]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, opening at 1.8375% and reaching a high of 1.841% before settling back down [6]. - The CPI for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [9]. Group 3: Sector Performance - Various sectors showed mixed performance, with precious metals and retail sectors gaining, while organic silicon and other sectors faced declines [9]. - Vanke's stock saw significant movement, closing at a limit up, reflecting investor optimism amid ongoing discussions about debt restructuring [10]. - The education sector also experienced notable gains, with companies like Zhonggong Education hitting their upper trading limits [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on December 10, 2025. For instance, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, while silver futures are likely to rise and hit a new high since listing [2][3]. - Global trade is projected to increase by about 7% (an additional $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record of $35 trillion, driven by East Asia, Africa, and South - South trade. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal differences, and the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 10, 2025, they are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4600 and 4619 points, and support levels are 4565 and 4535 points. Similar resistance and support levels are given for IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 [2][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2603 is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 108.03 and 108.20 yuan and support at 107.92 and 107.74 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2603 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with support at 112.2 and 111.7 yuan and resistance at 112.7 and 113.1 yuan [2][38][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2602 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels of 961.0 and 963.3 yuan/gram, with support at 951.5 and 945.5 yuan/gram. Silver futures contract AG2602 is likely to rise and hit a new high since listing, with resistance at 14200 and 14500 yuan/kg and support at 13726 and 13681 yuan/kg [2][3][43][51]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2601 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 90600 and 90100 yuan/ton and resistance at 91700 and 92500 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2601 is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 21920 and 21980 yuan/ton and support at 21710 and 21610 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to decline and hit a new low since listing, and tin futures contract SN2601 is likely to fluctuate strongly [3][56][63]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, soybean meal, and corn futures all have their respective predicted trends and resistance/support levels [3][4][7]. 3.2 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's economic confidence in achieving the annual goals. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the IMF President. US President Trump said he would approve the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. China and Russia conducted a joint air - strategic cruise. The UNCTAD reported that global trade would grow by about 7% in 2025 [8]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market has priced in a 25 - basis - point cut. The US private - sector employment situation improved, and Ukraine is preparing for elections [8][9]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On December 9, international precious metal futures generally rose, while US crude oil and London base metals fell. The current high iron ore price is due to capital games and speculation, and the EIA adjusted its oil - price forecasts [9][10][11]. - In November, Russia's daily crude oil production was over 100,000 barrels lower than the target. The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar had certain changes, and the US dollar index rose [11][12].

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall funding environment is stable and leaning towards a looser stance, with the bond market showing signs of recovery after a period of fluctuation [6][7] - The convertible bond market indices collectively declined, with most individual convertible bonds also experiencing a drop [13][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence in achieving the annual economic and social development goals during a dialogue with international economic organization leaders, emphasizing China's commitment to open cooperation and market expansion [2] - Vice Premier He Lifeng highlighted the importance of extending the cooperation list between China and the U.S. to foster stable and sustainable economic relations [3] Group 3: Employment and Labor Market - The ADP reported an average of 4,750 new jobs added weekly in the private sector, ending a four-week trend of job losses, indicating a potential recovery in the labor market [4] - The JOLTS report showed an increase in job vacancies to 7.67 million, while layoffs reached a two-year high, suggesting a mixed outlook for employment [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices continued to decline, with WTI and Brent crude dropping to $58.25 and $61.94 per barrel, respectively [5] - Natural gas prices also fell by 7.04% to $4.579 per million British thermal units [5] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.25 basis points to 1.8350%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond fell by 1.50 basis points to 1.9160% [9][10] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 117.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 39 billion yuan from the market [6] Group 6: Credit Bond Market - Significant price deviations were observed in several industrial bonds, with some experiencing drops exceeding 10% [12] - Companies like Bohai Leasing and Sichuan Development announced important updates regarding their bond issuance and credit ratings [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are digesting the Fed's hawkish rate - cut expectations, which have put some pressure on US Treasuries and US stocks. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. [2][4] - Although the domestic A - shares are supported by the positive news of the entry of medium - and long - term funds such as insurance funds, they still face the year - end settlement effect in the short term, with limited capital inflows. And due to the weakness of the Hong Kong stock market, the performance of A - shares is limited. [4] - The A - share market has filled the upper gap on the 21st. Given the signs of liquidity shortage, the stock index may retrace to around the 20 - week moving average of 3847 in the short term, and the market is in a consolidating phase to wait for opportunities. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Important News - Trump mentioned the possibility of reducing tariffs on some over - priced goods and that an immediate rate cut would be a "litmus test" for choosing a new Fed chairman. He also started the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman position this week, with Hassett leading. There was also talk about the possibility of Hassett having a shortened term. [6] - Hassett believes the Fed has sufficient room for significant rate cuts and will make interest - rate decisions based on his judgment. [7] - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.6% as expected, emphasizing the upside risk of inflation, and the market expects the rate - cut cycle may have ended. [7] - Zelensky refused to "cede territory", will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th, and for the first time showed willingness to hold elections. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision. [7] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with the heads of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development respectively. [7] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to issues such as delays in China's rare - earth exports to Japan and the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. [8][9] - Moore Threads is about to release a new generation of GPU architecture. [10] - A long - awaited polysilicon production - capacity integration and acquisition platform in the industry has been officially established. [10] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: All major stock - index futures contracts showed declines. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index futures contracts IF2512, IF2601, IF2603, and IF2606 fell by 0.65%, 0.64%, 0.70%, and 0.67% respectively. [12] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased. For instance, the trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index futures decreased by 21,031 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,493 lots. [13] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The overall market showed a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.61%. The trading volume of the market decreased, and most stocks fell. [3][35] - **Industry Performance**: Communication, electronics, commerce and retail, and military industry sectors rose, while non - ferrous metals, steel, real estate, coal, and construction decoration sectors led the decline. [3] - **Influence of Market Styles on Indexes**: Different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) had different impacts on major indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. For example, the cyclical style had a negative daily contribution to the SSE 50 index, while the growth style had a positive daily contribution. [36][37] - **Valuation and Related Indicators**: The report presented the current valuations, historical quantiles, trading volumes, and turnovers of major indexes and industries, providing a reference for market evaluation. [39][43] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presented the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest - rate levels, which are important indicators for observing market liquidity. [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the upstream supply changes in AI and also presents the overall situation of the production and service industries, as well as the industry overview from upstream to downstream [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - On December 9th, at the regular press conference, in response to the question about the US President Trump's approval to sell NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that China advocates mutual - benefit and win - win cooperation between China and the US [1] Service Industry - On December 9th, Premier Li Qiang met with the President of the World Bank, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, and the Secretary - General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. He said China will adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand [1] 3.2. Industry Overview Upstream - Non - ferrous metals: Copper prices continue to rise - Energy: Liquefied natural gas prices continue to decline - Chemical industry: Chemical product prices have recently shown small collective fluctuations [1] Mid - stream - Chemical industry: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester have decreased; the urea operating rate remains stable at a three - year high - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants has increased - Infrastructure: Asphalt production is in the off - season [1] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have been warming up recently - Services: The number of domestic and international flights has decreased [1] 3.3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 2237.1 | 0.51% | | | | Spot price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 12/9 | 6.5 | - 0.46% | | | | Spot price: Palm oil | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 8628.0 | - 1.98% | | | | Spot price: Cotton | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 15022.5 | 0.06% | | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 12/9 | 17.6 | - 0.96% | | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 92270.0 | 3.98% | | | | Spot price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 23154.0 | 1.91% | | | | Spot price: Aluminum | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 21933.3 | 0.97% | | | | Spot price: Nickel | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 120600.0 | 0.14% | | | | Spot price: Aluminum | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 17231.3 | 0.25% | | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Rebar | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 3199.7 | - 0.99% | | | | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 802.8 | - 1.24% | | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 3395.0 | 0.07% | | | Non - metals | Spot price: Glass | H | Yuan/square meter | 12/9 | 13.7 | - 0.51% | | | | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 14858.3 | - 0.50% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | H | - | 12/9 | 765.3 | - 0.10% | | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 12/9 | 58.9 | - 0.74% | | | | Spot price: Brent crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 12/9 | 62.5 | - 1.08% | | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 3862.0 | - 4.74% | | | | Coal price: Coal | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 808.0 | - 0.86% | | | Chemical industry | Spot price: PTA | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 4682.9 | - 0.55% | | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 6803.3 | - 1.66% | | | | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 1717.5 | 0.88% | | | | Spot price: Soda ash | H | Yuan/ton | 12/9 | 1205.7 | - 0.30% | | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | H | - | 12/9 | 135.4 | 0.01% | | | | Building materials composite index | H | Points | 12/9 | 115.0 | - 0.79% | | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | Points | 12/9 | 90.4 | 0.00% | | [40]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed weak consolidation with a decrease in trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3909.52 points, down 0.37% [1][9] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13277.36 points, down 0.39%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.61% [1][9] - Among 30 first-level industries, 27 experienced declines, with notable losses in real estate, steel, and non-ferrous metals, while telecommunications, retail, and electronics saw gains [1][9] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.13% [2] - Major declines were noted in companies like JPMorgan Chase, which fell over 4%, and Boeing, which dropped nearly 3% [2] Key News Highlights - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., with a registered capital of 3 billion, is aimed at exploring strategic cooperation opportunities in the photovoltaic industry [3][16] - New mandatory national standards for drone registration and operation identification were announced, set to take effect on May 1, 2026, to enhance safety and regulation in the drone industry [3][15] Market Drivers - The announcement of the US allowing Nvidia to sell AI chips to approved Chinese customers was highlighted as a significant market driver [10] - A total of 1308 stocks rose while 4058 fell in the A-share market, indicating a technical correction after previous gains [10]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,434, down 1.29% for the day but up 26.79% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 Index in the US closed at 6,841, down 0.09% for the day and up 16.30% year-to-date [1] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.14%, with a year-to-date increase of 26.97% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 46,622, down 0.49% for the day and up 32.69% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index decreased by 1.56%, with a year-to-date increase of 19.58% [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market experienced a pullback, with Hong Kong stocks declining more than A-shares, particularly in materials, energy, and real estate sectors [3] - The net buying from southbound trading was HKD 530 million, with Tencent, Xiaomi, and Alibaba seeing the most net buying [3] - The forecast for global and Chinese energy storage battery shipments is optimistic, with an expected growth rate exceeding 80% this year [3] Industry Analysis: Internet Sector - The year 2026 is projected to be crucial for capturing user attention in the AI era, focusing on lowering usage barriers and enhancing decision-making efficiency [4] - Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [4] - Recommended stocks include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-related growth potential [4] Consumer Sector Insights - The e-commerce sector is expected to benefit from national subsidies, with experience-based consumption (like travel and gaming) projected to grow faster than physical goods [5] - The competition in the local lifestyle sector is intensifying, but the online travel agency (OTA) sector shows resilience [5] Technology Sector Outlook - The AI industry is expected to see intensified competition and increased application monetization in 2026, with a focus on enhancing model capabilities [6][7] - Companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are recommended for their potential in AI-driven revenue growth [8] Cloud Services Growth - Cloud service revenue growth is accelerating, with a significant increase in capital expenditures driven by demand [9] - AI investments are expected to enhance profit margins and create new revenue opportunities [9] AI Monetization Opportunities - The global AI spending is projected to grow by 37% to USD 2 trillion in 2026, with a focus on AI applications in various sectors [10] - Key areas for investment include AI applications in programming, creative generation, and enterprise intelligence [10]