中信证券：继续聚焦资源和传统制造定价权的提升 年初的躁动缘于跨年踏空资金的集中入场，"人心思涨"是大背景，一些前期谨慎资金的追涨加速了行情演绎， 但躁动主要发生在主题板块以及量化影响较大的小票，而非配置型资金布仓方向。从当前的量价和风险偏好指 标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、小票轮动的震荡上行格局可能还会延续 到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状态。 不过，抛开短期的市场躁动，站在全年维度，真正具备持续入场体量的配置型资金今年对权益组合降低波动的 诉求是更高的，需要考虑的是这部分可持续的"大钱"（而不是年初踏空资金）会持续流向的方向。在配置上， 建议资源和传统制造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合波动。 兴业证券：市场上行收益可能远大于下行风险 往后看，上证"十六连阳"、突破关键点位、成交额破3万亿等一系列标志性事件对于趋势和信心的强化，有助 于市场各方参与积极性抬升，为本轮春季行情奠定良好开局。并且，结合基本面、情绪、结构、日历效应等维 度，当前市场处于向下风险有限、向上仍有较大潜在空间的窗口，上行收益可能远大于下行风险。商业航天作 为 ...

"十四五"时期，我国聚氨酯行业坚持以创新驱动和绿色低碳为导向，不仅在产业规模上巩固了全球领先 地位，更在质量效益、技术创新、结构优化和可持续发展能力上实现了同步跃升。 规模优势持续巩固 产业安全自主可控 "十四五"期间，我国聚氨酯行业规模持续扩大，稳居全球最大生产国、消费国地位。行业主要核心原料 产能全球占比超过40%，标志着我国聚氨酯产业链的规模优势和配套能力达到了新的高度，完整的产业 生态也极大增强了产业链供应链的自主可控能力。 绿色高端助剂研发与产业化成绩显著。湘园新材、美思德化学、恒光新材等生产的生物基助剂、高端聚 氨酯扩链剂、高性能有机硅表面活性剂等产品达到国际先进水平，完善了产业链关键环节。 核心原料领域保持全球引领。异氰酸酯产品在技术先进性、装置规模、能耗控制及本质安全水平上持续 保持全球领先。截至2025年，我国二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯(MDI)产能预计达499万吨，甲苯二异氰酸酯 (TDI)产能达199万吨，全球最大异氰酸酯生产与供应国地位更加稳固。环氧丙烷产能从2020年的337万 吨迅速增长至2025年的815万吨。聚醚多元醇产业量与质同步飞跃，产能从2020年约598万吨扩张至2025 年 ...

记者丨赵云帆 编辑丨朱益民 在2025年下半年"化工反内卷"声浪之中，"化工茅"万华化学（600309.SH）的涨价显得有些姗姗来迟，但在影响范围上却有横扫全球之势头。 自2025年12月以来，万华化学接连发布多份调价函，涉及（二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯）和TDI（甲苯二异氰酸酯）等公司核心产品。在全球范围内、巴斯 夫、陶氏、亨斯迈等也频频同步上调MDI/TDI价格，聚氨酯价格迎来了近三年来难得一见的强势表现。 这也是继2025年年中科思创TDI装置遭遇火灾不可抗力停产之后，聚氨酯行业在一年内再度迎来一轮涨价契机。 "聚氨酯的行业集中度很高，除万华化学之外的企业均是全球性化工巨头。因此国内的反内卷对聚氨酯行业其实并没有太多直接的影响"，有聚氨酯行业人 士告诉21世纪经济报道记者。"（本次调价）这个事还是属于一个正常的市场调整行为。" 二级市场上，近期万华化学股价呈上涨趋势，近20日累计涨超12%，2025年12月31日股价微跌0.42%，市值为2400亿元。 万华化学(600309) 闭市 12-31 15:00:04 通 融 额 12.6亿 股本31.30亿 市盈™ 21.63 万得 盘口 换 0.52% 市值 ...

一元复始，万象更新。在这辞旧迎新的美好时刻，我谨代表万华化学集团管理层，向不懈耕耘的全体万 华人、默默支持的员工家属以及长期以来关心帮助万华发展的社会各界朋友，致以最诚挚的问候和最美 好的祝福！ 这一年，我们以变革破局，激活组织澎湃动能！以"变革年"为管理主题，推动投资思维向经营思维转 变，建立更加精准的员工收入与价值创造相结合的激励体系，不断提升员工的主动性与创造力。全面推 进"数智化"赋能经营管理，时序大模型、智能巡检、设备预防维护等AI应用场景广泛落地，大数据与人 工智能的深度融合，正推动万华向智慧型企业稳步迈进。 这一年，我们向技术深潜，铸就引领未来的核心壁垒！公司不断深化研发组织变革，优化人才配置，集 中力量支持核心业务，推动技术研发与业务价值深度绑定，将经营意识融入研发基因，使创新活力竞相 迸发。以全国重点实验室为牵引，以AI for Science为重要抓手，聚焦电池和高性能材料等领域的关键技 术攻关，多项自主研发的高端新材料成功推向市场，合成生物学、电化学等前沿平台创新成果不断涌 现。 这一年，我们聚焦第一主业，筑牢根基强化优势。新一代聚氨酯制造技术正逐步落地，竞争力持续增 强，领先优势进一步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new investment themes for 2026 are emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, driven by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across various manufacturing sectors [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing, particularly in industrial resource products such as copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the bottom of the cycle, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles [1] - Identify domestic manufacturing sectors that are showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - Capture the recovery in consumption driven by inbound tourism and rising household income, focusing on sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns, particularly in non-bank financial sectors such as insurance and brokerage [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that among 360 industry/theme ETFs, 39 reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals reflecting North American AI infrastructure and resource logic, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining attention during market fluctuations [2] - The focus is on structural opportunities in a volatile market, with sectors like chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy being prioritized due to their long-term ROE potential, alongside emerging themes like commercial aerospace [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of the RMB appreciation trend and its implications for investment strategies, particularly in brokerage and insurance sectors [3] Group 2 - The article discusses favorable conditions for the spring market rally, driven by liquidity and investor expectations, with a focus on the A500 ETF and potential market fluctuations at year-end and early next year [4] - It notes that the RMB's recent strength, driven by corporate settlement demand and a favorable external environment, could lead to a capital market rally, benefiting sectors reliant on imported materials and those with significant foreign currency liabilities [6] - The article identifies new investment themes emerging in the commodity market and manufacturing sectors, particularly in AI and global manufacturing recovery, recommending investments in industrial resources and equipment exports [8] Group 3 - The article indicates that the A-share market has entered a cross-year rally phase, supported by optimistic institutional investor sentiment and favorable policy expectations [9] - It suggests that the spring market is likely to exhibit structural characteristics with rapid sector rotation, encouraging investors to adopt a low-buying strategy [13][14] - The article highlights the potential for a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on technology themes and non-bank financial sectors [15]

Core Viewpoint - The new investment theme for 2026 is emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, characterized by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption, leading to increased physical consumption across manufacturing sectors and extended trading ranges for bulk commodities, with China's manufacturing advantages becoming more evident and reflected in the foreign exchange market [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on AI investments and industrial resource products that resonate with the global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - Attention to China's equipment export chain, which has global comparative advantages and is confirmed at the cycle bottom, including power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles, as well as domestic manufacturing sectors showing signs of bottom reversal, such as chemicals (dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide) and wafer manufacturing [1] - Capture the recovery in inbound tourism and the increase in residents' income, leading to a rebound in consumption in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free shops, and food and beverages [1] - Benefit from the expansion of the capital market and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns in non-bank sectors, including insurance and brokerage firms [1]

华鲁恒升有机胺、肥料、醋酸、新能源新材料，2025Q1-3产量相比2020Q1-3增长45%/109%/161%/57% （新能源新材料因口径调整同比时间基数选择2022Q1-3）。公司本部通过技改有望实现盈利明显提 升，同步进行新能源新材料领域扩产。50%价差分位盈利在50亿元。 鲁西化工己内酰胺、尼龙6、甲酸、多元醇，2024年产量相比2020年增长55%/81%/44%/10%，并新增了 有机硅22.5万吨/年产能。50%价差分位盈利在39亿元。 龙佰集团钛白粉、钛精矿，2025H1产量相比2020H1增长68%/58%，海绵钛产能从1万吨/年扩增至8万吨/ 年，两矿合并正在快速推进，钛精矿产能将从140万吨/年提升至248万吨/年，铁精矿从400万吨/年提升 至760万吨/年，同时正在并购Venator英国15万吨/年氯化法钛白粉工厂。50%价差分位盈利在45亿元（考 虑两矿合并在64亿元）。 博源化工纯碱、小苏打、尿素，2025H1产量相比2020H1增长388%/59%/-1%，阿拉善二期280万吨/年纯 碱项目逐步投产，26年贡献增量。50%价差分位盈利在53亿元。 华峰化学氨纶、己二酸、聚氨酯 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that by 2026, A-share companies will transition from merely exporting goods to a phase of collaborative output involving capacity, branding, and management systems, marking a qualitative shift in overseas operations [1] - Among 2,723 A-share companies engaged in overseas business, 60.96% hold a positive attitude towards international expansion, with 45.38% of 12,393 related announcements reflecting positive statements, indicating that going global has shifted from an optional strategy to a necessary action [1] Industry Analysis - "High-tech" industries are becoming the main force in overseas expansion, with technological barriers and industry concentration determining long-term value. The core logic of industry selection focuses on high-tech moats and strong industry clusters, which provide irreplaceability along with cost and efficiency advantages [2] - Three key sectors identified for overseas expansion include: - Chemical new materials (polyurethane, fiberglass) leveraging global pricing power and overseas base layouts to avoid trade barriers - High-end equipment (buses, construction machinery, semiconductor equipment) capitalizing on technology spillover to capture markets in "connector countries" - Electronic components (servers, MLCC) benefiting from global AI computing infrastructure and automotive electronics demand [2] - Data shows that over 70% of companies in machinery, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, computers, and automobiles are positively inclined towards overseas operations, making them core vehicles for international expansion [2] Regional Opportunities - Distinct opportunities are emerging across global markets, with a strategic focus on three core regions: - Europe emphasizes high-end manufacturing and green transformation, with localized production in new energy buses and chemical new materials to overcome technical and tariff barriers - Southeast Asia serves as a "backyard" for industry chain overflow, with semiconductor equipment and consumer electronics benefiting from mature process expansion and consumption upgrades - The Middle East and Latin America are emerging as new frontiers for photovoltaic energy storage and construction machinery, driven by energy transition and infrastructure demands [2] Investment Strategy - An "hourglass" portfolio is recommended to balance stable returns with growth flexibility, focusing on both "globalization dividend assets" and "technology breakthrough growth stocks": - The left side targets high-dividend, low-valuation stable assets, such as commercial buses and leading chemical new materials companies with stable overseas revenue and strong cash flow - The right side invests in high-growth, technology-driven assets, corresponding to "very positive" companies like semiconductor equipment and AI server firms, which are expected to experience nonlinear growth due to global supply chain restructuring and technological iteration [3]

出海范式全面升级，从产品输出迈向体系出海成为核心主线。2026 年 A 股公 司出海已告别单纯的商品出口阶段，进入产能、品牌、管理体系协同输出的 质变期。量化数据显示，2723 家涉出海业务的 A 股公司中，60.96%持积极态 度，12393 条相关公告中 45.38%为积极类表述，反映出出海已从可选战略转 为必选动作。龙头企业通过海外建厂、本地化运营、全产业链配套，实现从 中国制造到全球制造的跨越。 "双高"行业成出海主力，技术壁垒与产业集聚度决定长期价值。行业选择 的核心逻辑聚焦高技术护城河与强产业集聚度，这两类行业既具备不可替代 性，又拥有成本与效率优势。三大黄金赛道：化工新材料（聚氨酯、玻纤） 凭借全球定价权与海外基地布局规避贸易壁垒；高端装备（客车、工程机械、 半导体设备）依托技术外溢抢占"连接器国家"市场；电子元器件（服务器、 MLCC）受益于全球 AI 算力基建与汽车电子化需求。从数据看，机械设备、 电力设备、医药生物、计算机、汽车五大行业积极类公司数占比超七成，成 为出海核心载体。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月25日 资配跨年展望(二) 大国出海下的"新核心资产" 区域机会呈现差异化， ...