今天分享的是：结构融资：境外资产证券化市场回顾及热点洞察（一） 报告共计：23页 境外资产证券化市场回顾及热点洞察总结 本文围绕境外资产证券化市场展开全面分析，涵盖市场概览、热点产品、投资洞察及发展趋势等核心内容。 在市场概览方面，美国资产证券化市场虽占固定收益市场比例较巅峰时期有所下降，但仍是资本市场重要组成部分。其产品分为住房抵押贷款支持证券和资 产支持证券两大类，受宏观经济、政策等因素影响，发行规模波动较大，2021-2022年创历史新高后因加息等因素下滑，2023年起逐步恢复。欧洲资产证券 化市场存量规模可观，2023年以来发行回暖，分为配售型和自留型产品，配售型占比波动上升，且STS框架推动下相关产品占比持续提升，两地底层资产均 以车贷、信用卡、消费贷款等为主。 市场热点聚焦资产担保债券，这一由资产池担保的债务工具，因双重追索权受投资者青睐，全球已有超三十个国家发行，2024年发行量创历史新高，欧洲是 主要市场。该产品可突破主权评级"天花板"，三大国际评级机构均有相应评级方法，标普采用五步分析法，惠誉和穆迪为两步分析法，核心均围绕法律监 管、抵押品质量、超额抵押等因素评估。 市场洞察部分重点分析了持 ...

阿拉伯贸易网12月5日消息，惠誉预计2026年中东和北非（MENA）主权评级前景为"中性"，反映 出油价稳定、经济增长稳健及财政改革的积极作用。惠誉预测2026年布伦特油价平均63美元/桶，略低 于2025年，但仍高于海合会多数成员国的财政盈亏平衡点（除巴林、沙特和阿曼）。受政府开支、相关 实体投资及经济多元化推动，加之未来油产量提升，地区GDP增长势头强劲。 （原标题：2026年中东和北非地区主权评级前景为"中性"） ...

Group 1 - Moody's is expected to upgrade Italy's rating for the first time in nearly 23 years, reflecting increased market confidence in the country's public finances [1] - The Italian government has lowered its budget deficit target for 2025 to 3% of GDP, one year ahead of the EU's requirement, due to increased tax revenues and reduced debt servicing costs [1] - Analysts note that Italy's fiscal performance has consistently exceeded expectations, supported by the removal of large fiscal stimulus measures and robust GDP growth [1][2] Group 2 - Other rating agencies have also upgraded Italy's rating, with Fitch raising it to BBB+ and Deloitte to A (low), while Scope improved its outlook to positive [2] - The spread between 10-year Italian government bonds and German bonds has narrowed by approximately 40 basis points since early September, indicating improved investor sentiment [2] - Despite potential rating upgrades, Italy faces challenges such as an aging population, heavy debt burden, and stagnant GDP growth, with the government lowering its growth forecast to 0.5% for the year [3]

Core Insights - The Cameroonian government has requested a sovereign rating in Central African Francs from the Ivorian rating agency Bloomfield Investment Company, aiming to enhance its credibility in the regional debt market and diversify financing channels [1][1][1] Group 1: Government Intentions - The initiative reflects the government's desire to further engage with regional financial markets by improving the local currency rating, which could attract regional investments and strengthen economic ties with neighboring countries [1][1] - The rating is expected to provide a more accurate representation of the country's economic and financial situation, facilitating better understanding of investment risks in Cameroon [1][1] Group 2: Selection of Rating Agency - Bloomfield was chosen due to its methodology being more aligned with regional characteristics and its experience in multiple Franc zone countries, potentially offering more flexibility compared to foreign agencies [1][1][1] Group 3: Financial Context - This move comes at a critical time for public finances, as Cameroon prepares to repay a €750 million bond issued in 2015, which has a 9.50% interest rate and matures on November 19, 2025 [1][1] - After repaying this significant external debt, the country aims to shift its debt strategy towards local currency financing, alleviating pressure on foreign exchange reserves [1][1] - As of June 30, 2025, Cameroon’s domestic debt (excluding unpaid balances and floating debt) stands at 38,144 billion Central African Francs, accounting for 11.6% of GDP, with over half (55%) of this debt composed of government bonds issued in the Central African Central Bank market [1][1]

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings indicates that the sovereign ratings in the MENA region remain stable due to fiscal resilience and economic reforms [1] - Despite challenges from falling oil prices and regional conflicts, most oil-producing countries have achieved balance through non-oil economic growth [1] - Egypt and Morocco have shown outstanding economic performance [1] - Over the past 12 months, the average rating in the MENA region has been upgraded by +2, marking the longest period of stability since 2015 [1] - Fitch expects that ongoing regional reforms and fiscal discipline will continue to support credit resilience [1]

Core Insights - Moody's has maintained Côte d'Ivoire's sovereign rating at Ba2 with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic and fiscal development trajectory ahead of the presidential elections [2] Economic Outlook - Moody's forecasts a GDP growth rate of 6.6% for Côte d'Ivoire in 2025-2026, driven by the effective implementation of national development plans, increased private investment in strategic sectors (oil, minerals, air transport), and improved government governance [2] - Public fiscal revenue is expected to reach 18% of GDP by 2025, supported by high gold prices and increased oil production, with the fiscal deficit projected to decrease to 2.5% [2] Regional Context - The security situation in West Africa is expected to stabilize as three Sahel countries officially exit the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) in 2024 [2] Risks - Despite positive economic indicators, Côte d'Ivoire faces ongoing political and social risks, including high youth unemployment, increasing regional development disparities, and weak education and healthcare social safety nets, which could lead to social unrest [2] - Moody's indicated that a further upgrade in the rating could be considered if Côte d'Ivoire continues to improve social indicators without increasing the fiscal deficit [2]

Core Viewpoint - S&P maintains the United States' sovereign credit rating at Aa+/A-1+ with a stable outlook [1] Group 1 - The decision reflects confidence in the U.S. government's ability to meet its financial obligations [1] - The stable outlook indicates that no immediate changes to the rating are anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has maintained Mauritius' sovereign rating at "Baa3" with a negative outlook, indicating significant risks related to fiscal deficit, debt sustainability, and the government's ability to implement credible fiscal reforms [1] Economic Resilience - The economy of Mauritius is recognized for its resilience, stable growth, sound institutional framework, and diversification [1] External Vulnerabilities - The country is highly dependent on imports and is vulnerable to external shocks and climate change [1] Debt Concerns - Government debt is projected to reach 79.1% of GDP by 2025, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] Data Reporting Issues - There are issues regarding the accuracy of reported economic data, which could impact the credibility of fiscal assessments [1] Potential for Rating Improvement - If the government can introduce a credible fiscal reform plan, there is potential for an improvement in the rating outlook [1] Risks of Downgrade - Conversely, if reforms are delayed or risks escalate, there is a possibility of a downgrade in the rating [1] Current Rating Outlook - The likelihood of an upgrade in the rating at this stage is considered low [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings indicates that the recent increase in tariffs imposed by the U.S. on EU goods, while significant, is not expected to directly trigger downgrades of sovereign ratings for EU member states [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. has agreed to impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, which has led to strong dissatisfaction from Germany and France, with leaders warning of significant economic damage to the EU [1][2]. - Fitch analyst Ed Parker states that the 15% tariff aligns with the agency's assumptions since March, suggesting no substantial change in economic forecasts [1][3]. - Despite the tariff increase, Fitch believes that the impact has largely been accounted for in their analysis, and thus, the recent tariff actions will not lead to immediate adjustments in their economic outlook for the region [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Sentiment - The euro has continued to decline, dropping 0.3% against the dollar to 1.1555, marking its lowest level in five weeks [3]. - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French Prime Minister François Bayrou have expressed that the agreement will cause considerable damage to Germany, Europe, and even the U.S. itself, with Bayrou labeling the day as "dark" for the EU [2]. Group 3: Future Risks - While Fitch maintains its baseline scenario, it acknowledges potential risks, stating that the tariff increase itself is not expected to drive rating changes for EU countries [3][4]. - However, the agency warns that the tariffs could exacerbate existing credit pressures within the EU, adding uncertainty to future economic stability [1][4].

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supports the initiative from the China Automobile Industry Association to maintain fair competition and promote healthy development in the automotive industry, emphasizing the need to address "involution" competition [1] - The Ministry plans to enhance regulatory measures to optimize industry structure, strengthen product consistency checks, and collaborate with relevant departments to enforce anti-unfair competition laws [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises have a PMI of 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points, and small enterprises have a PMI of 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points [2] Group 3: Real Estate and Land Development - Guangzhou has listed 9 land parcels for sale, covering an area of 186,100 square meters with a total starting price of approximately 8.283 billion yuan [4] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - BYD announced a collaboration with Xiaojuchongdian and Xin Electric to build 15,000 megawatt fast-charging stations [5] Group 5: International Trade and Economic Policy - California Governor Gavin Newsom criticized the federal government's tariff policies, stating they disproportionately impact small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S. [7] - The U.S. Commerce Department reported a significant reduction in the trade deficit for April, dropping to $87.6 billion from a record high of $162.3 billion in March, indicating a decrease of 46% [7]