1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Bullish; Palladium: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the price centers of platinum and palladium will move upward year-on-year. The reference price range for platinum is (380, 810) yuan/ton, (1500, 3100) US dollars/ounce, and for palladium is (340, 600) yuan/ton, (1350, 2280) US dollars/ounce [4]. - It is believed that the possibility of the US imposing additional tariffs on platinum is low, while the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on palladium is high. Before the tariff policy is implemented, the siphon effect of the US on global platinum and palladium will continue. With the support of tight spot supplies for futures prices, a bullish approach is recommended for platinum and palladium under the resonance of spot and futures. If the tariff risk eases, the strategy of buying on dips should be switched to selling on rallies [4]. - In terms of strategies, from a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to buy platinum on dips in the medium - term; from an arbitrage perspective, it is recommended to focus on the positive spread arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets. From a cross - varietal perspective, it is recommended to focus on the medium - term strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium, but this strategy is more suitable for investors with high risk tolerance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Period - Spot Resonance as the Core Trading Logic in 2025 - The trading of platinum and palladium in 2025 revolved around the main logic of the market's concern about US tariff risks, supplemented by factors such as tight supply, improved macro - environment, and inflow of liquidity. Eventually, platinum and palladium experienced three rounds of price increases [14]. - The siphon effect of the US on global platinum and palladium spot led to a significant increase in Nymex platinum and palladium inventories. The long - term lease rates in Europe began to rise, and the spot market became tight. The resonance between spot and futures became the main trading logic in 2025 [20][29]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Primary Supply: Profit Repair of Mining Enterprises and Potential Inflection Point in Platinum and Palladium Mine Output - Historically, global platinum and palladium mine production has had a weak cycle. In the past five years, platinum and palladium mine production has shown a downward trend, with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of platinum mine production at - 1.8% and that of palladium mine production at - 3.5% [33]. - In 2025, the top four platinum and palladium mining enterprises (CR4 reached 80%) all significantly reduced production. However, in the third quarter of 2025, the platinum and palladium production of some South African projects rebounded month - on - month, possibly due to factors such as price increases, high sensitivity to prices, and improved power supply [37]. - Different enterprises have different production outlooks in 2026. For example, Unipal Platinum is expected to increase annual platinum and palladium production by about 10%; Impala Platinum plans to produce 340 - 360 thousand ounces in the 2026 fiscal year, a year - on - year increase of about 3.7%; Norilsk Nickel's total platinum and palladium production is expected to increase slightly by 1% year - on - year; Sibanye - Stillwater's total platinum and palladium production is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year. New projects such as Ivanplats' Platreef mine and Jinchuan Group's Bokoni project are expected to contribute new production [40][41]. 3.2.2 Challenges in Eskom's Reorganization and External Risks Limiting the Resumption of Platinum and Palladium Mining Enterprises - South Africa still mainly relies on coal - fired power generation, and the electricity price is much higher than that in other regions. The high electricity cost has a significant impact on platinum and palladium mining enterprises [44]. - Eskom, the South African state - owned power company, has long - term financial problems and unstable power generation. Its planned reorganization may face conflicts of interest, which will hinder power grid reform, energy structure transformation, and reduction of electricity costs [49][52]. - In the 2026 fiscal year, Eskom's electricity tariff may continue to rise by more than 10% year - on - year, and South Africa may continue to face the risk of stepped power rationing. Considering various factors such as safety accidents and weather, it is expected that platinum and palladium mines will have marginal resumption of production in 2026, with an estimated increase of 8 tons in platinum production and 9 tons in palladium production year - on - year [54]. 3.2.3 Secondary Supply: Rising Automobile Scrappage Cycle and Price Increase May Stimulate Scrap Recycling - The main source of recycled platinum and palladium is the automotive sector, accounting for 70 - 80% of the total recycled volume. In 2025, the price increase of platinum and palladium stimulated the growth of recycling volume, but there was also a certain degree of hoarding behavior among recyclers [59]. - Domestic leading enterprises are actively building new recycling projects. Based on the automobile scrappage cycle, it is estimated that in 2026, the recycled platinum and palladium production in Europe and the US will increase by about 0.8 tons and 1.8 tons respectively, and the recycled production in China is also expected to increase significantly [60]. - However, if the recycling volume fails to meet expectations, such as low hidden inventory of platinum jewelry or hoarding behavior of recyclers, the expected surplus may not be realized [61]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Electric Vehicles Crowding out, Hybrid Vehicles Supporting, and Continued Substitution of Platinum and Palladium in the Automotive Field - The consumption of platinum and palladium in the automotive field is highly correlated with total automobile sales, but the correlation has weakened with the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that in 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed that of fuel - powered vehicles, and pure electric vehicles will crowd out about 15 tons of platinum - group metal consumption [69]. - Hybrid vehicles require higher platinum - group metal loads in their catalysts. In 2025, the sales of hybrid vehicles in China and the US increased significantly, which may support the demand for platinum and palladium [70]. - Policy factors such as the withdrawal of subsidies and the upgrading of emission standards will also affect the demand for platinum and palladium. Overall, the decline in platinum and palladium demand in the automotive field will slow down in 2026, with an estimated consumption growth rate of - 1.5% for platinum and - 3.5% for palladium. The demand for platinum - group metals in the domestic automotive field is expected to increase by 1% year - on - year [76][78]. 3.3.2 Jewelry and Investment Demand Expected to Increase under Bullish Expectations - In 2026, the downward trend of platinum jewelry demand may be reversed. Platinum may partially replace gold in the jewelry field, especially in China and India. It is expected that the jewelry demand for platinum will increase by 5% year - on - year, while the jewelry demand for palladium is expected to remain flat [82][87]. - In 2025, the investment demand for platinum and palladium increased significantly, especially in the exchange inventory. The investment demand for platinum and palladium is related to supply - demand expectations. If the liquidity in the precious metal market overflows to platinum and palladium in 2026, it may significantly boost the investment demand. However, if the US tariff risk eases, some allocation funds may take profits, and the investment demand for palladium may grow at a lower rate than that for platinum [87][90]. 3.3.3 Relatively Stable Industrial Demand and Difficulty in Exceeding Expectations in the Hydrogen Energy Field - Platinum's industrial demand is mainly in glass, chemical, and other fields. In the glass field, although limited by the real - estate cycle, it is supported by the wind power industry, and the demand is expected to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2026. In the chemical field, the demand is expected to maintain moderate growth [100][105]. - In the hydrogen energy field, the development of platinum and palladium is still limited by infrastructure, and large - scale application is still a long - term prospect. In other fields such as electronics, semiconductors, and military, there may be potential reserve demand for platinum and palladium [111]. 3.4 Fundamental Summary - Supply - demand balance: In 2026, the supply of primary platinum and palladium mines is expected to have marginal resumption, but the space is limited. The secondary supply is expected to increase significantly. The demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive field will decline, but there will be support from other fields. The supply - demand gap for platinum will narrow, while palladium will shift from a small shortage to a large surplus [112][118]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - Macro - environment: In 2026, the global interest - rate environment and corporate financing levels will continue to improve, which may be beneficial to platinum and palladium in the medium - to - long term. However, there are also complex macro - risks, such as US fiscal deficits, political elections, and geopolitical conflicts [119]. - Tariff expectations: The US is less likely to impose additional tariffs on platinum but more likely to impose additional tariffs on palladium. If tariffs are imposed on palladium, it will have a significant impact on the market [120]. - Trading logic and strategies: Before the tariff policy is implemented, a bullish approach is recommended for platinum and palladium. If the tariff risk eases, the strategy should be switched to selling on rallies. From a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to buy platinum on dips in the medium - term; from an arbitrage perspective, it is recommended to focus on positive spread arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets and the strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium, but the latter is more suitable for high - risk - tolerance investors [122][134].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the elements in the trading logic of platinum and palladium are more numerous than before. The fundamental contradiction in the platinum and palladium spot market and the optimistic macro - loose environment will support the rise of platinum and palladium in the first half of the year. Platinum may have a higher increase than palladium due to better fundamentals and stronger financial attributes. In the second half, if the spot contradiction eases, prices may fall. If US tariffs are implemented, the global supply - chain pattern of platinum and palladium will be reshaped. The expected price range for platinum is $1500 - 2800 per ounce in US dollars and 380 - 730 yuan per gram in RMB; for palladium, it is $1200 - 2250 per ounce in US dollars and 300 - 590 yuan per gram in RMB [2]. - In 2026, it is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage opportunities caused by spot structural imbalances. Consider a long - platinum and short - palladium ratio strategy. For the medium - to long - term unilateral strategy, it is advisable to go long on platinum at low prices, and for short - term intraday or weekly bands, consider allocating palladium, that is, go long on palladium when it has a deep correction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 Platinum and Palladium Price Review 3.1.1 Platinum Price Logic Review - In 2025, platinum had a 93% increase by December 15. It broke through the 10 - year oscillation range, with macro - sentiment as the core catalyst and good fundamentals as the support. The price went through different stages including shock - building, explosive growth, callback - oscillation, and secondary growth [6]. 3.1.2 Palladium Price Operation - In 2025, palladium had a unique "oscillation - climbing and long - short game" market, with a 67% increase by December 15. The core driving logic was the triple game of macro - liquidity loosening, supply - demand structural contradiction, and industrial transformation pressure. In the first half, it oscillated, and in the second half, it rose significantly due to macro - liquidity changes and market - structure marginal changes [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Sentiment - In 2025, the global macro - environment was characterized by "loose - dominated, resilient growth, and co - existing differentiation". Major economies implemented loose policies, with the global GDP growth rate expected to be in the 2.7% - 3.4% range and inflation gradually falling to 3% - 4.2%. However, trade protectionism and policy uncertainties still posed potential pressures [20]. - In 2026, the global economy will slow down moderately, and the loose cycle will continue with significant differentiation. The attractiveness of anti - inflation assets such as precious metals is expected to increase. In 2025, platinum's price soared due to price - to - return advantages, supply - demand gaps, and growth - type demand, but it cannot truly replace gold due to core shortcomings in liquidity, stability, and lack of currency attributes [21][22]. 3.3 Supply Side in 2026 3.3.1 Primary Mineral Differentiation - South Africa's power supply has improved, but there are still local shortages. In 2026, mines and residents may face stepped power rationing. The production rhythm of core mining enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious growth momentum. The All - In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of core mining enterprises have soared, and Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) has decreased, which will drag down the realization of existing and new production capacities to some extent [26][33][39]. 3.3.2 Recycling Supply - Global platinum and palladium recycling enterprises have sufficient production - capacity reserves. Driven by high prices, they have a strong willingness to increase production. It is expected that in 2026, the global platinum and palladium recycling supply scale will increase significantly, with an expected incremental supply of 15 - 20 tons in China [46][47]. 3.3.3 Spot Structural Contradiction - Affected by the US 232 investigation and the anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on palladium, platinum and palladium inventories have been hoarded in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), leading to frequent liquidity crises in the New York and London markets and violent fluctuations in the price spread between the two markets. Before the judgment results are announced in the first half of 2026, the spot structural imbalance will remain an "irreconcilable contradiction" [48][50][52]. 3.4 Demand Side in 2026 3.4.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Replace Traditional Energy Vehicles - The global automotive market is shifting towards new energy vehicles. It is expected that in 2026, the sales volume of pure - electric and hybrid vehicles will reach 26.1 million. Hybrid electric vehicles have a higher total platinum - palladium load than traditional fuel vehicles, which alleviates the decline in platinum - palladium demand. Globally, platinum demand in the automotive field is expected to increase by 0.91%, while palladium demand is expected to decrease by 0.06% [59][70][71]. 3.4.2 Industrial Demand - In the glass - fiber industry, China's new production capacity is expected to increase platinum demand by 3.3 tons in 2026. In the petrochemical industry, platinum demand has a moderate growth expectation. The promotion of fuel - cell vehicles is declining, and there is no hope of explosive growth in the short term. Overall, platinum and palladium industrial demand is expected to increase by 3% in 2026 [79][84][91]. 3.4.3 Jewelry Demand - China's platinum jewelry demand has declined for two consecutive years, and India has restricted platinum jewelry imports. It is expected that global platinum jewelry demand will decline by 10% in 2026, while palladium jewelry demand is expected to remain stable [92][94][95]. 3.4.4 Investment Demand - Platinum and palladium investment products are niche. In 2026, as prices rise in the first half, ETFs may continue to increase their holdings; when prices reach a high level, there may be profit - taking. It is expected that the investment demand for platinum and palladium will decline by 30% throughout the year [97][103][106]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - On the supply side, in 2026, the global platinum mineral supply is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, while the palladium mineral supply will be stable. The recycling supply will be the core incremental source, with an expected increase of 6 tons of platinum and 10 tons of palladium [107]. - On the demand side, there is significant differentiation. In the automotive exhaust - catalysis field, hybrid vehicles help stop the decline in platinum - palladium demand. In 2026, platinum will be in a tight - supply balance, and palladium will have a slight supply surplus [108][109]. - The platinum and palladium spot market has a significant structural contradiction, which will support price increases in the medium term. Key factors to track include the release of hidden inventories, price differentiation between platinum and palladium, and the change in investment sentiment [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the supply growth rate of platinum is -0.4%, and the demand growth rate is 10.8%, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 41.2 tons. The supply growth rate of palladium is -1.7%, and the demand growth rate is -8.6%, with a supply surplus of 6 tons. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen oscillatingly, while palladium may continue to face pressure [3][53]. - In the automotive sector, the mid - term demand for platinum - group metals is mainly supported by PHEV. Platinum is expected to increase by 3 - 5% in the automotive sector in 2025, while palladium demand is expected to decline by less than 1%. [3][52][53] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 H1 Platinum and Palladium Price Trends Review - As of June 16, 2025, Nymex platinum prices rose 36.25%, and palladium rose 15.01%. In Q1, prices oscillated weakly due to uncertain US tariff policies and heavy rainfall in South African mines. In Q2, prices recovered after hitting bottom, affected by trade frictions, tariff alleviation, and gold - platinum ratio changes [6]. 2. 2025 H2 Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Market Analysis 2.1 Supply Side - **2.1.1 South African Extreme Weather Hit Global Platinum and Palladium Supply, Oligopoly Couldn't Hide Short - term Vulnerability** - Global primary platinum and palladium production is highly concentrated. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia, and the US account for 96% of global production. The top four mining companies' market share exceeds 70% for platinum and over 80% for palladium [12]. - In Q1 2025, platinum mine supply dropped 13% year - on - year to 34 tons. South African heavy rainfall, low smelting capacity utilization in Zimbabwe, and North American mine restructuring led to the decline. Although production in South Africa recovered in Q2, long - term challenges may limit output. The annual platinum supply is expected to be 3.869 million ounces, down 6.38% year - on - year [17][19]. - **2.1.2 Recycled Supply Kept Growing, with Scrap Auto Catalysts Contributing the Main Increment** - Recycling accounts for 20 - 25% of the total platinum and palladium supply. Scrap auto catalysts contribute 70 - 75% of the recycled supply. The "scrap - for - new" policy and high platinum content in old cars are expected to accelerate scrap recycling in H2 2025, but some dismantlers' hoarding may suppress supply [24][26]. - In H1 2025, platinum jewelry consumption recovered, which may drive the recycling market. However, due to low inventory, the annual recycling volume may still decline [31]. 2.2 Demand Side - **2.2.1 Automotive Sector Platinum and Palladium Demand Grew Moderately** - **2.2.1.1 In terms of total volume, the global automotive production's platinum and palladium demand was revised down, affected by demand overdraft and tariff shocks** - In 2025, global automobile production is expected to be about 92 million units, a slight decline of less than 1% year - on - year. In the Chinese market, demand overdraft and inventory pressure may affect production and platinum - palladium demand. In overseas markets, tariffs and weak macro - economy may also impact demand [36]. - **2.2.1.2 Structurally, mid - term demand is mainly supported by PHEV** - The mid - term demand for platinum - group metals in the automotive sector is mainly supported by PHEV. In H1 2025, the PHEV market share reached 15.89%, up about 3 percentage points from the previous year. As other manufacturers follow up on PHEV technology, the market share may further increase. Platinum is expected to increase by 3 - 5% in the automotive sector in 2025, while palladium demand is expected to decline by less than 1% [43][44]. - **2.2.2 Jewelry Sector Platinum and Palladium Demand Grew Rapidly, with Gold - Platinum Substitution Driving Up Expectations** - In 2025, global platinum jewelry demand is expected to grow about 15%. The high gold price has made platinum jewelry more attractive. In the Chinese market, new platinum showrooms and counters have emerged. In the Japanese market, demand is expected to grow steadily, while in India, growth may slow due to US tariff policies [49].