1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the elements in the trading logic of platinum and palladium are more numerous than before. The fundamental contradiction in the platinum and palladium spot market and the optimistic macro - loose environment will support the rise of platinum and palladium in the first half of the year. Platinum may have a higher increase than palladium due to better fundamentals and stronger financial attributes. In the second half, if the spot contradiction eases, prices may fall. If US tariffs are implemented, the global supply - chain pattern of platinum and palladium will be reshaped. The expected price range for platinum is $1500 - 2800 per ounce in US dollars and 380 - 730 yuan per gram in RMB; for palladium, it is $1200 - 2250 per ounce in US dollars and 300 - 590 yuan per gram in RMB [2]. - In 2026, it is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage opportunities caused by spot structural imbalances. Consider a long - platinum and short - palladium ratio strategy. For the medium - to long - term unilateral strategy, it is advisable to go long on platinum at low prices, and for short - term intraday or weekly bands, consider allocating palladium, that is, go long on palladium when it has a deep correction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 Platinum and Palladium Price Review 3.1.1 Platinum Price Logic Review - In 2025, platinum had a 93% increase by December 15. It broke through the 10 - year oscillation range, with macro - sentiment as the core catalyst and good fundamentals as the support. The price went through different stages including shock - building, explosive growth, callback - oscillation, and secondary growth [6]. 3.1.2 Palladium Price Operation - In 2025, palladium had a unique "oscillation - climbing and long - short game" market, with a 67% increase by December 15. The core driving logic was the triple game of macro - liquidity loosening, supply - demand structural contradiction, and industrial transformation pressure. In the first half, it oscillated, and in the second half, it rose significantly due to macro - liquidity changes and market - structure marginal changes [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Sentiment - In 2025, the global macro - environment was characterized by "loose - dominated, resilient growth, and co - existing differentiation". Major economies implemented loose policies, with the global GDP growth rate expected to be in the 2.7% - 3.4% range and inflation gradually falling to 3% - 4.2%. However, trade protectionism and policy uncertainties still posed potential pressures [20]. - In 2026, the global economy will slow down moderately, and the loose cycle will continue with significant differentiation. The attractiveness of anti - inflation assets such as precious metals is expected to increase. In 2025, platinum's price soared due to price - to - return advantages, supply - demand gaps, and growth - type demand, but it cannot truly replace gold due to core shortcomings in liquidity, stability, and lack of currency attributes [21][22]. 3.3 Supply Side in 2026 3.3.1 Primary Mineral Differentiation - South Africa's power supply has improved, but there are still local shortages. In 2026, mines and residents may face stepped power rationing. The production rhythm of core mining enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious growth momentum. The All - In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of core mining enterprises have soared, and Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) has decreased, which will drag down the realization of existing and new production capacities to some extent [26][33][39]. 3.3.2 Recycling Supply - Global platinum and palladium recycling enterprises have sufficient production - capacity reserves. Driven by high prices, they have a strong willingness to increase production. It is expected that in 2026, the global platinum and palladium recycling supply scale will increase significantly, with an expected incremental supply of 15 - 20 tons in China [46][47]. 3.3.3 Spot Structural Contradiction - Affected by the US 232 investigation and the anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on palladium, platinum and palladium inventories have been hoarded in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), leading to frequent liquidity crises in the New York and London markets and violent fluctuations in the price spread between the two markets. Before the judgment results are announced in the first half of 2026, the spot structural imbalance will remain an "irreconcilable contradiction" [48][50][52]. 3.4 Demand Side in 2026 3.4.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Replace Traditional Energy Vehicles - The global automotive market is shifting towards new energy vehicles. It is expected that in 2026, the sales volume of pure - electric and hybrid vehicles will reach 26.1 million. Hybrid electric vehicles have a higher total platinum - palladium load than traditional fuel vehicles, which alleviates the decline in platinum - palladium demand. Globally, platinum demand in the automotive field is expected to increase by 0.91%, while palladium demand is expected to decrease by 0.06% [59][70][71]. 3.4.2 Industrial Demand - In the glass - fiber industry, China's new production capacity is expected to increase platinum demand by 3.3 tons in 2026. In the petrochemical industry, platinum demand has a moderate growth expectation. The promotion of fuel - cell vehicles is declining, and there is no hope of explosive growth in the short term. Overall, platinum and palladium industrial demand is expected to increase by 3% in 2026 [79][84][91]. 3.4.3 Jewelry Demand - China's platinum jewelry demand has declined for two consecutive years, and India has restricted platinum jewelry imports. It is expected that global platinum jewelry demand will decline by 10% in 2026, while palladium jewelry demand is expected to remain stable [92][94][95]. 3.4.4 Investment Demand - Platinum and palladium investment products are niche. In 2026, as prices rise in the first half, ETFs may continue to increase their holdings; when prices reach a high level, there may be profit - taking. It is expected that the investment demand for platinum and palladium will decline by 30% throughout the year [97][103][106]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - On the supply side, in 2026, the global platinum mineral supply is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, while the palladium mineral supply will be stable. The recycling supply will be the core incremental source, with an expected increase of 6 tons of platinum and 10 tons of palladium [107]. - On the demand side, there is significant differentiation. In the automotive exhaust - catalysis field, hybrid vehicles help stop the decline in platinum - palladium demand. In 2026, platinum will be in a tight - supply balance, and palladium will have a slight supply surplus [108][109]. - The platinum and palladium spot market has a significant structural contradiction, which will support price increases in the medium term. Key factors to track include the release of hidden inventories, price differentiation between platinum and palladium, and the change in investment sentiment [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the supply growth rate of platinum is -0.4%, and the demand growth rate is 10.8%, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 41.2 tons. The supply growth rate of palladium is -1.7%, and the demand growth rate is -8.6%, with a supply surplus of 6 tons. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen oscillatingly, while palladium may continue to face pressure [3][53]. - In the automotive sector, the mid - term demand for platinum - group metals is mainly supported by PHEV. Platinum is expected to increase by 3 - 5% in the automotive sector in 2025, while palladium demand is expected to decline by less than 1%. [3][52][53] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 H1 Platinum and Palladium Price Trends Review - As of June 16, 2025, Nymex platinum prices rose 36.25%, and palladium rose 15.01%. In Q1, prices oscillated weakly due to uncertain US tariff policies and heavy rainfall in South African mines. In Q2, prices recovered after hitting bottom, affected by trade frictions, tariff alleviation, and gold - platinum ratio changes [6]. 2. 2025 H2 Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Market Analysis 2.1 Supply Side - **2.1.1 South African Extreme Weather Hit Global Platinum and Palladium Supply, Oligopoly Couldn't Hide Short - term Vulnerability** - Global primary platinum and palladium production is highly concentrated. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia, and the US account for 96% of global production. The top four mining companies' market share exceeds 70% for platinum and over 80% for palladium [12]. - In Q1 2025, platinum mine supply dropped 13% year - on - year to 34 tons. South African heavy rainfall, low smelting capacity utilization in Zimbabwe, and North American mine restructuring led to the decline. Although production in South Africa recovered in Q2, long - term challenges may limit output. The annual platinum supply is expected to be 3.869 million ounces, down 6.38% year - on - year [17][19]. - **2.1.2 Recycled Supply Kept Growing, with Scrap Auto Catalysts Contributing the Main Increment** - Recycling accounts for 20 - 25% of the total platinum and palladium supply. Scrap auto catalysts contribute 70 - 75% of the recycled supply. The "scrap - for - new" policy and high platinum content in old cars are expected to accelerate scrap recycling in H2 2025, but some dismantlers' hoarding may suppress supply [24][26]. - In H1 2025, platinum jewelry consumption recovered, which may drive the recycling market. However, due to low inventory, the annual recycling volume may still decline [31]. 2.2 Demand Side - **2.2.1 Automotive Sector Platinum and Palladium Demand Grew Moderately** - **2.2.1.1 In terms of total volume, the global automotive production's platinum and palladium demand was revised down, affected by demand overdraft and tariff shocks** - In 2025, global automobile production is expected to be about 92 million units, a slight decline of less than 1% year - on - year. In the Chinese market, demand overdraft and inventory pressure may affect production and platinum - palladium demand. In overseas markets, tariffs and weak macro - economy may also impact demand [36]. - **2.2.1.2 Structurally, mid - term demand is mainly supported by PHEV** - The mid - term demand for platinum - group metals in the automotive sector is mainly supported by PHEV. In H1 2025, the PHEV market share reached 15.89%, up about 3 percentage points from the previous year. As other manufacturers follow up on PHEV technology, the market share may further increase. Platinum is expected to increase by 3 - 5% in the automotive sector in 2025, while palladium demand is expected to decline by less than 1% [43][44]. - **2.2.2 Jewelry Sector Platinum and Palladium Demand Grew Rapidly, with Gold - Platinum Substitution Driving Up Expectations** - In 2025, global platinum jewelry demand is expected to grow about 15%. The high gold price has made platinum jewelry more attractive. In the Chinese market, new platinum showrooms and counters have emerged. In the Japanese market, demand is expected to grow steadily, while in India, growth may slow due to US tariff policies [49].