新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 仓单增加较多，碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行 策略 当日期货盘面继续偏弱运行，碳酸锂供需双增，云母减量后，辉石补充部分减量，智利出口量一般，预计9月维持 小幅去库。近期仓单增加较多，对盘面形成一定抑制，目前江西其他矿山后续审批情况存在不确定性，需关注矿 端开工情况，消费端存在支撑，在矿端扰动影响下，碳酸锂预计仍有支撑，但盘面波动较大，参与者需做好风险 管控。 单边：谨慎偏多 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：买入看涨期权 市场分析 2025-09-03，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于72860元/吨，收于71880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.10%。当日 成交量为442800手，持仓量为346048手，前一交易日持仓量348109手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为3020元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单34118手，较上个交易日变化2111手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73900-77900元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1600元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价72900-74300元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1600元/吨。6%锂精矿价格850 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with lithium carbonate futures main contract closing at 87,540.0 yuan/ton, down 1.79% [1] - In the spot market, prices for various lithium-related materials increased, including a rise of 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan for electric carbon and 500 yuan for ternary materials [1] - Weekly lithium production increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, while lithium mica production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment improved due to the upcoming expiration of a safety production license for a large mica mine in Jiangxi, leading to cautious upward movement in lithium prices [2] - The domestic demand for lithium is showing signs of recovery as downstream purchasing attitudes shift in response to the strong trend of lithium carbonate [1][2] - Short-term lithium prices may experience upward movement driven by market sentiment, but the extent of the increase is expected to be limited due to regulatory factors and local oversight [2]

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 63,200 yuan/ton and closed at 63,660 yuan/ton, the same as the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 213,304 lots, and the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 591,177 lots, a decrease of 1,661 lots. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 147,150 lots to 283,996, and the overall speculation degree was 0.48. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots from the previous day [1] - The lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile pattern of "opening low - surging - falling back - recovering" and closed flat [1] Group 2: Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 61,700 - 63,400 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 60,450 - 61,450 yuan/ton, also up 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward [2] - Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and stabilized, showing a slight rebound. However, the output of lithium carbonate remained high, the market supply surplus pattern continued, and the industry inventory pressure still existed [2] Group 3: Strategy - Overall, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved to some extent, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out after the July warehouse receipt cancellation, and there is some delivery game in the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [3] - For unilateral trading, short - term wait - and - see and sell - hedging on rallies are recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]