1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 73,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 72,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.40%. It is expected that next week, the supply side production scheduling will decrease, the demand side will continue to increase, and the cost will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 13,064 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase; lithium mica production was 2,695 tons, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease; salt lake production was 2,904 tons, a 5.10% week - on - week increase; and recycling production was 1,972 tons, a 2.49% week - on - week increase [4]. - **Demand**: In September 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 116,801 physical tons, a 12.28% month - on - month increase. The predicted demand for next month is 123,198 physical tons, a 5.48% month - on - month increase. The export volume in September was 410 tons, a 11.11% month - on - month increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 324 tons, a 20.97% month - on - month increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles and the production of power and energy - storage batteries also showed certain trends, and the terminal inventory has been reduced, which supports the demand for lithium carbonate [5][6]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, a 0.55% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,590 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 77,139 yuan/ton, a 0.85% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 6,648 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [6]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory is 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories are 40,290 tons, a 5.06% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory is 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: The report presents the price trends of lithium ore, the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China, the import volume of lithium concentrate, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore. There is also a supply - demand balance table for domestic lithium ore, showing the demand, production, import, export, and balance from September 2024 to September 2025 [15][18]. - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: It shows the weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials), the monthly production by grade and raw material, the monthly production capacity, and the monthly import volume. There is also a supply - demand balance table for lithium carbonate from September 2024 to September 2025 [21][26]. - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: The report shows the weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide. A supply - demand balance table for lithium hydroxide from September 2024 to September 2025 is also provided [29][31]. - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: It analyzes the cost and profit of various lithium compounds, including the cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene and lithium mica concentrates, the cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene processing, the import profit of lithium carbonate, the cost and profit of recycling lithium carbonate, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate, and the profit of causticizing lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate [34][39]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventories by source [41]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery**: The report presents the price trends, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries [45][47]. - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: It shows the price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and a supply - demand balance table of ternary precursors from September 2024 to September 2025 [50][53]. - **Demand - Ternary Material**: The report shows the price, cost, profit, weekly operating rate, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials [56][58]. - **Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: It presents the price, cost, profit, capacity, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium [60][63]. - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: It shows the production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles [68][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend. The report provides the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price of the LC main contract from September to October, as well as the moving average data. It is expected that next week, the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [75].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate industry has been experiencing a continuous destocking trend for eight weeks since August, driven by stronger demand growth compared to supply [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate reached 316,000 tons, an increase of 9% month-on-month; battery production was 160 GWh, up 11%; and energy storage battery production was 50 GWh, up 13% [1]. - Cumulatively, demand data from January to August showed a year-on-year growth rate higher than the same period last year [1]. - The traditional peak demand season in September and October is expected to maintain positive month-on-month growth, with demand growth exceeding market expectations [1]. Supply Side Summary - Following the suspension of the Jiangxiawo project by CATL on August 9, domestic lithium carbonate production from the mica source decreased significantly from a peak of 5,000 tons per week to 2,500 tons, but has since rebounded to 2,800 tons after the resumption of Yichun Silver Lithium [2]. - The lithium spodumene source's weekly production increased from 9,000 tons in July to 13,000 tons, compensating for the reduction from the mica source and resulting in a total weekly supply exceeding 20,000 tons, a historical high [2]. - The inventory structure in the lithium carbonate industry is improving, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream inventory increasing. Upstream smelter inventory fell from 51,000 tons to 33,000 tons (a 35% decrease), while downstream inventory rose from 48,000 tons to 61,000 tons (a 27% increase) [2]. Market Dynamics - The purchasing willingness of material manufacturers has increased due to sustained demand, with pre-holiday stocking driving procurement efforts. The inventory cycle for downstream material manufacturers has slightly increased from under 14 days to 15-16 days [3]. - As of September 26, lithium carbonate futures prices remained stable around 73,000 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.95% [3]. - Analysts suggest that while the destocking trend continues, the overall inventory reduction is limited due to the balance between demand improvement and supply increase [3]. Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand after the peak season in September and October. If demand weakens, the industry may shift from destocking to restocking, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in lithium carbonate futures prices [3]. - The upcoming October may see supply disturbances as mining companies enter the certification process, which could lead to a return to a more relaxed supply outlook, putting pressure on lithium carbonate prices [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term supply - demand pattern is good with consumption support during the peak season and continuous inventory reduction, so the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate. After the resumption of production at the mine end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 16, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 73,900 yuan/ton and closed at 73,180 yuan/ton, with a 1.30% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 500,267 lots, and the open interest was 300,437 lots (309,446 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 610 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,824 lots, a change of - 139 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 71,900 - 73,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 70,000 - 71,200 yuan/ton, both with a 400 - yuan/ton change from the previous day. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 820 US dollars/ton, a 10 - dollar/ton change from the previous day [1]. - Downstream material enterprises are still cautious and have weak purchasing willingness, with low market trading activity. However, due to the peak demand season and pre - National Day inventory needs, they have stronger purchasing willingness at relatively low prices [1]. - Lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lithium mica has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows synchronous growth in supply and demand, with a slightly tight overall supply - demand situation and a small inventory reduction [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, sell - hedging on rallies [2]. - Cross - period: None [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: Buy call options [3] 2. Core View - On September 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures market continued to be weak. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate both increased. After the reduction in mica production, spodumene production compensated for part of the decrease. Chile's export volume was average, and it was expected to maintain a slight inventory reduction in September. The recent increase in warehouse receipts had a certain inhibitory effect on the market. Although there was support on the consumer side, the market was volatile [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On September 3, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 72,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 71,880 yuan/ton, a - 3.10% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 442,800 lots, and the open interest was 346,048 lots (348,109 lots the previous day). The basis was 3,020 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts were 34,118 lots, a change of 2,111 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 73,900 - 77,900 yuan/ton, a - 1,600 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,300 yuan/ton, also a - 1,600 yuan/ton change. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 850 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures continued to decline, with the lowest intraday price falling below 72,000 yuan/ton. The downstream price - fixing activities were extremely active. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the inventory cycle of downstream material factories was slightly extended. There was a structural differentiation on the supply side: the production of lithium mica in Jiangxi significantly contracted, and the increase in the spodumene end could make up for part of the gap. In September, the market showed a situation of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and there would be a temporary supply shortage [1]. - In August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 16,900 tons, a 19.2% month - on - month decrease and a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 13,000 tons, a 4.8% month - on - month decrease and a 6.9% year - on - year increase. Exports to South Korea were 3,000 tons, a 50.4% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, Chile's lithium sulfate export volume was 6,916 tons, a 33.42% month - on - month decrease, all sent to China. From January to August 2025, Chile sent a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 127% year - on - year increase [2]. Strategy - It was expected that lithium carbonate would still have support, but the market was volatile. Participants needed to manage risks well. The unilateral strategy was cautiously bullish, and the option strategy was to buy call options [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with lithium carbonate futures main contract closing at 87,540.0 yuan/ton, down 1.79% [1] - In the spot market, prices for various lithium-related materials increased, including a rise of 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan for electric carbon and 500 yuan for ternary materials [1] - Weekly lithium production increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, while lithium mica production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment improved due to the upcoming expiration of a safety production license for a large mica mine in Jiangxi, leading to cautious upward movement in lithium prices [2] - The domestic demand for lithium is showing signs of recovery as downstream purchasing attitudes shift in response to the strong trend of lithium carbonate [1][2] - Short-term lithium prices may experience upward movement driven by market sentiment, but the extent of the increase is expected to be limited due to regulatory factors and local oversight [2]

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 63,200 yuan/ton and closed at 63,660 yuan/ton, the same as the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 213,304 lots, and the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 591,177 lots, a decrease of 1,661 lots. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 147,150 lots to 283,996, and the overall speculation degree was 0.48. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots from the previous day [1] - The lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile pattern of "opening low - surging - falling back - recovering" and closed flat [1] Group 2: Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 61,700 - 63,400 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 60,450 - 61,450 yuan/ton, also up 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward [2] - Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and stabilized, showing a slight rebound. However, the output of lithium carbonate remained high, the market supply surplus pattern continued, and the industry inventory pressure still existed [2] Group 3: Strategy - Overall, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved to some extent, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out after the July warehouse receipt cancellation, and there is some delivery game in the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [3] - For unilateral trading, short - term wait - and - see and sell - hedging on rallies are recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]