证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年10月06日-10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周11合约为下跌态势，周一开盘价为73800元/吨，周五收盘价为72740元/吨，周跌幅为1.40%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为20635吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13064吨，环比增 加0.58%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2695吨，环比减少5.10%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产 2904吨，环比增加5.10%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产1972吨，环比增加2.49%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年9月碳酸锂需求量为116801实物吨，环比增加12.28%,预测下月需求量为123198 实 ...

自8月份以来，碳酸锂行业已连续8周呈现去库态势。数据显示，9月26日当周碳酸锂的周度库存为13.68 万吨，较8月7日当周的14.24万吨，下降4%。 创元期货分析师余烁向期货日报记者表示，碳酸锂行业呈现连续去库态势，主要是因为在当前供需"双 旺"的市场格局下，需求端的增速更快。当前的去库态势，只是阶段性回调，并非行业回暖的信号。 需求端，余烁表示，今年8月份需求端各数据环比走强明显。其中，磷酸铁锂产量为31.6万吨，环比增 加9%；电池产量为160GWh，环比增加11%；储能电池产量50GWh，环比增加13%。"今年1—8月，需 求端各数据累计同比增速高于去年同期。"余烁解释称，9—10月为传统需求旺季，相较于8月，仍维持 环比正增长态势，需求增速远超市场预期。 供应端，自宁德时代枧下窝项目8月9日宣布停产以来，国内碳酸锂云母端来源产量明显走弱，从高峰时 期周产5000吨下降至2500吨，但后续随着宜春银锂检修完毕复产，周产回升至2800吨水平。相关数据显 示，枧下窝项目停产后，锂云母端的碳酸锂月度产量下降约9000吨。"这一变化，符合市场预期，但锂 辉石端带来的增量，使得供应端的总量不减反增。"据余烁介绍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term supply - demand pattern is good with consumption support during the peak season and continuous inventory reduction, so the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate. After the resumption of production at the mine end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 16, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 73,900 yuan/ton and closed at 73,180 yuan/ton, with a 1.30% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 500,267 lots, and the open interest was 300,437 lots (309,446 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 610 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,824 lots, a change of - 139 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 71,900 - 73,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 70,000 - 71,200 yuan/ton, both with a 400 - yuan/ton change from the previous day. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 820 US dollars/ton, a 10 - dollar/ton change from the previous day [1]. - Downstream material enterprises are still cautious and have weak purchasing willingness, with low market trading activity. However, due to the peak demand season and pre - National Day inventory needs, they have stronger purchasing willingness at relatively low prices [1]. - Lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lithium mica has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows synchronous growth in supply and demand, with a slightly tight overall supply - demand situation and a small inventory reduction [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, sell - hedging on rallies [2]. - Cross - period: None [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: Buy call options [3] 2. Core View - On September 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures market continued to be weak. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate both increased. After the reduction in mica production, spodumene production compensated for part of the decrease. Chile's export volume was average, and it was expected to maintain a slight inventory reduction in September. The recent increase in warehouse receipts had a certain inhibitory effect on the market. Although there was support on the consumer side, the market was volatile [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On September 3, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 72,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 71,880 yuan/ton, a - 3.10% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 442,800 lots, and the open interest was 346,048 lots (348,109 lots the previous day). The basis was 3,020 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts were 34,118 lots, a change of 2,111 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 73,900 - 77,900 yuan/ton, a - 1,600 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,300 yuan/ton, also a - 1,600 yuan/ton change. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 850 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures continued to decline, with the lowest intraday price falling below 72,000 yuan/ton. The downstream price - fixing activities were extremely active. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the inventory cycle of downstream material factories was slightly extended. There was a structural differentiation on the supply side: the production of lithium mica in Jiangxi significantly contracted, and the increase in the spodumene end could make up for part of the gap. In September, the market showed a situation of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and there would be a temporary supply shortage [1]. - In August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 16,900 tons, a 19.2% month - on - month decrease and a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 13,000 tons, a 4.8% month - on - month decrease and a 6.9% year - on - year increase. Exports to South Korea were 3,000 tons, a 50.4% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, Chile's lithium sulfate export volume was 6,916 tons, a 33.42% month - on - month decrease, all sent to China. From January to August 2025, Chile sent a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 127% year - on - year increase [2]. Strategy - It was expected that lithium carbonate would still have support, but the market was volatile. Participants needed to manage risks well. The unilateral strategy was cautiously bullish, and the option strategy was to buy call options [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with lithium carbonate futures main contract closing at 87,540.0 yuan/ton, down 1.79% [1] - In the spot market, prices for various lithium-related materials increased, including a rise of 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan for electric carbon and 500 yuan for ternary materials [1] - Weekly lithium production increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, while lithium mica production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment improved due to the upcoming expiration of a safety production license for a large mica mine in Jiangxi, leading to cautious upward movement in lithium prices [2] - The domestic demand for lithium is showing signs of recovery as downstream purchasing attitudes shift in response to the strong trend of lithium carbonate [1][2] - Short-term lithium prices may experience upward movement driven by market sentiment, but the extent of the increase is expected to be limited due to regulatory factors and local oversight [2]

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 63,200 yuan/ton and closed at 63,660 yuan/ton, the same as the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 213,304 lots, and the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 591,177 lots, a decrease of 1,661 lots. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 147,150 lots to 283,996, and the overall speculation degree was 0.48. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots from the previous day [1] - The lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile pattern of "opening low - surging - falling back - recovering" and closed flat [1] Group 2: Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 61,700 - 63,400 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 60,450 - 61,450 yuan/ton, also up 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward [2] - Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and stabilized, showing a slight rebound. However, the output of lithium carbonate remained high, the market supply surplus pattern continued, and the industry inventory pressure still existed [2] Group 3: Strategy - Overall, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved to some extent, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out after the July warehouse receipt cancellation, and there is some delivery game in the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [3] - For unilateral trading, short - term wait - and - see and sell - hedging on rallies are recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]