碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 9 月 11 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1. 外电 9 月 9 日消息，澳大利亚 Galan Lithium 公司宣布，其位于阿根廷的 Hombre Muerto West(HMW)锂盐项目一期建设取得重大进展，已完成 4 号池的 设计，其将支持 4000 吨/年碳酸锂当量的运营，并正在推进位于悉尼的纳米 过滤厂的建设。HMW 项目分多个阶段推进，中期目标为 2026 年实现每年 2.1 万吨 LCE，2028 年达到每年 4 万吨，并在 20 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on lithium carbonate futures dated August 22, 2025, written by researchers Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin from the Nonferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Lithium carbonate futures stopped falling, and the market selling sentiment eased. The logic of production cuts at the lithium resource end still exists, and the futures once turned positive. The spot price of electric carbon dropped by 500 to 85,200, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing resistance to decline [9] - Australian ore remained flat at 960, lithium mica ore dropped by 15 to 2,110, the price of 5-series power ternary materials remained flat, and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 125. The short - term price decline led to price cuts in both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain [9] - The production profit of salt plants purchasing lithium spodumene narrowed to 3,613, and the production loss of salt plants purchasing lithium mica widened to 2,995. This week's weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons compared with last week, and social inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Production is still at a relatively high level, and it is judged that the inflection point of social inventory has appeared [9] - With the spot at a premium and the market's enthusiasm for speculating on ore - end production cuts remaining high before the end of September, it is expected that the downward space for lithium carbonate prices is limited [9] Group 3: Industry News - The Ningxia - Hunan ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project was put into operation on August 20. It is China's first approved UHV transmission channel mainly for transmitting new energy from large - scale wind and photovoltaic bases in the "Sahara - Gobi - Desert" area. The project has a supporting power generation capacity of 17.64 million kilowatts, including 13 million kilowatts of new energy (4 million kilowatts of wind power and 9 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power) [12] - Premier African Minerals announced that its Zulu lithium project has made a major breakthrough, transitioning from the commissioning phase to the refining optimization phase. The project has successfully produced salable spodumene concentrate with a lithium oxide grade of over 5% (up to 6.2%) and achieved full - process automated continuous production [12][13]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with lithium carbonate futures main contract closing at 87,540.0 yuan/ton, down 1.79% [1] - In the spot market, prices for various lithium-related materials increased, including a rise of 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan for electric carbon and 500 yuan for ternary materials [1] - Weekly lithium production increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, while lithium mica production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment improved due to the upcoming expiration of a safety production license for a large mica mine in Jiangxi, leading to cautious upward movement in lithium prices [2] - The domestic demand for lithium is showing signs of recovery as downstream purchasing attitudes shift in response to the strong trend of lithium carbonate [1][2] - Short-term lithium prices may experience upward movement driven by market sentiment, but the extent of the increase is expected to be limited due to regulatory factors and local oversight [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Carbonate lithium futures rose significantly, with the main contract breaking through 90,000 yuan during the session. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan, Australian ore rose by 45 to 1,035, lithium mica ore rose by 85 to 2,185, 5-series power-type ternary materials rose by 500, and lithium iron phosphate rose by 515. The production profit of salt plants purchasing lithium spodumene narrowed to 1,069, and the production loss of salt plants purchasing lithium mica expanded to 4,968. The current futures price has a premium of over 4,000 yuan over the spot price [12]. - **Main Drivers**: The rise was mainly due to the news that the mining license of Qinghai Xitai Jinaier Salt Lake of CITIC Guoan expired, and short - term disturbances in the resource side were the main cause of lithium price fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: The high supply is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, but the market's short - term trading sentiment is still concentrated on the production cuts and suspensions in the lithium resource sector. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium is likely to rise and difficult to fall [12]. Group 3: Industry News - **Ganfeng Lithium**: On August 18, Ganfeng Lithium stated on the interactive platform that the future reversal of lithium prices depends on the intensity of supply - side clearance and the pace of demand growth. The company is optimistic about long - term lithium demand, will adjust production capacity flexibly and optimize hedging strategies, and the current volume of carbonate lithium futures hedging is low [13]. - **India's Policy Proposal**: India proposed to reduce the goods and services tax for entry - level two - wheelers, small cars, and hybrid passenger cars, and the proposal is expected to be implemented before October [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures continued to fluctuate at the bottom, with the total open interest decreasing by 7,341 lots and the long - short game continuing to decline. The spot price increased during the day, with the price of electric carbon rising by 100 to 60,350. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite ore stopped falling, the price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 20 - 30, and the price of ternary materials decreased by 50 - 180. The price cut tide in the industrial chain slowed down, and there were no new changes in the fundamentals. The lithium carbonate futures once broke through the trend line during the day, but the upward trend was frustrated again due to the news of China - US negotiations. In the short term, lithium carbonate is still brewing a rebound, but the momentum is still insufficient. Before the demand side picks up, the price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures continued to fluctuate at the bottom, with a decrease in total open interest and weak short - term rebound momentum. The price is expected to continue weak bottom - side fluctuations before the demand side recovers [8] 3.2. Industry News - Talon Metals plans to raise about C$24 million (US$17.6 million) for its Tamarack nickel - copper - cobalt project in Minnesota. The financing will be carried out through two independent financings, and the company's stock price tumbled as investors digested the pricing. Tamarack is a joint - venture project with Rio Tinto, which holds 51% of the equity [9] - Premium Resources has changed its name to NexMetals Mining to reflect its strategy of supplying key metals such as copper, nickel, and cobalt from Botswana. The name - change plan was approved by shareholders, and its stock will start trading under the new name and ticker "NEXM" on the TSX - V on June 11. The company announced a six - month aggressive strategy in April [9] - The Mianyang Liyuan New Energy Co., Ltd.'s project to produce 12 million lithium - ion energy - storage cells per year in Yanting County, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province, is under environmental impact assessment. The project plans to invest 50 million yuan and purchase more than 100 sets of intelligent equipment to form an annual production capacity of 12 million lithium - ion energy - storage cells [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: June 6, 2025 [1] - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated weakly, with total positions decreasing by 321 lots. The game between long and short positions remained intense, and the spot price center continued to move down. Electric carbon dropped by 50 to 60,200, and the price of Australian lithium ore dropped by 2.5 to $607.5 per ton. The price of lithium mica ore remained flat, and the price of cathode materials also decreased. The downward trend in the industry chain remained unchanged [8]. - This week, the weekly production of carbonate lithium increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons. Except for the decline in production at the recycling end, the production of carbonate lithium from other raw material ends increased, and the pressure on the supply side continued to exist. Whether the price of carbonate lithium can stop falling and rebound still depends on the strength of the demand side. In the short term, the futures price of carbonate lithium has not yet stabilized above the trend line and should still be treated with a weak perspective [8]. Group 3: Industry News - Rio Tinto is adjusting the cost of its lithium project in Serbia, which was identified as one of the 13 strategic new key material projects by the European Commission. The project was opposed by environmental groups and many Serbians due to environmental issues and led to large - scale street protests in 2022, resulting in the government revoking all of Rio Tinto's exploration licenses. The Constitutional Court overturned the decision last year and restored the licenses. The project was originally expected to start production in 2027, and the company still needs to obtain on - site mining licenses [9]. - Metal investor Cobalt Holdings will abandon its planned initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange. The company did not disclose the specific reasons for canceling the plan. Sources revealed that the IPO process was aborted due to weak subscription demand, and the management still看好 the cobalt business model and market prospects and plans to explore alternative financing options such as private placement. The company's original plan to use most of the IPO proceeds (about $200 million) to purchase the first 6,000 tons of cobalt metal from Glencore has not been clearly determined whether to continue [9][10]. - According to the mineral and petroleum exploration data for the first quarter of 2025 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the national exploration activities decreased significantly both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The total exploration expenditure decreased by 18.4% (A$181 million) quarter - on - quarter to A$804.7 million, and the year - on - year decrease was 11.5% (A$105 million), a nearly 20% reduction from the quarterly peak in 2023 (over A$1 billion). Drilling activities also declined, with the new exploration drilling volume decreasing by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter and the total drilling meters decreasing by 11.6% [10].