碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 免责声明： 碳酸锂期货高位震荡，日内受市场情绪偏弱影响，碳酸锂期货主力一度跌破 10 万，盘面 05-01 价差小幅缩窄至 1860，现货电碳涨 700 至 95850，贸易市场对主 力合约贴水扩大至（-3200，-1000），锂辉石矿涨 40 至 1260，锂云母矿涨 80 至 2700，三元涨 200-250，铁锂涨 165-170，电解液持平，产业链涨价趋势稳固 ...

继宁德时代枧下窝矿被关停后，"亚洲锂都"宜春又现大动作。 近日，碳酸锂期货价格大涨，主力合约再次站上10万元关口。 譬如，江西特种电机股份有限公司旗下江西省宜丰县狮子岭矿区含锂瓷石矿，矿种为"陶瓷土"，该矿山采矿权许可证有效期为2019年5月15日—2024年9月 15日。 江特电机2023年年报显示，该公司目前拥有3个采矿权，分别为江西省宜丰县狮子岭矿区含锂瓷石矿、宜春市新坊钽铌有限公司钽铌矿和奉新县南方矿业 有限公司白水瓷石矿，其中狮子岭矿石量1123.98万吨，Li2O资源量57322.98吨。 江西宜春，全国四大锂矿重地，拥有亚洲储量最大的锂云母矿，被誉为"亚洲锂都"。但是，宜春的锂企（茜坑矿除外）开采许可证的矿种，几乎全部 为"瓷土矿"、"高岭土"等矿种。 最新消息，根据《矿产资源法》、《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》和《自然资源部关于进一步完善矿产资源勘查开采登记管理的通知》等相关要求，宜春 市自然资源局拟对高安市伍桥瓷石矿等27宗采矿许可证予以注销。 目前，宜春市自然资源局已对拟注销的27宗采矿许可证进行公示，公示期（30个工作日）满后予以公告注销。注销后，生态修复等相关义务由原矿权人履 行。 证券 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: Carbonate lithium futures prices rose significantly, with total positions increasing by 77,114 lots. After the evaluation report of the Jianxiawo mining area was released, the resumption time of the mine was postponed, and strong demand led to a short - term influx of funds. However, the current futures market sentiment is more exuberant than the spot market, and there is a high risk of short - term chasing [11]. - Spot Market: The price of electric carbon increased by 350 to 80,750. The spot price was significantly at a discount to the futures price. The price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte slowed down. The price of Australian ore increased by 55 to 995, lithium mica ore increased by 60, ternary materials increased by 100 - 1,500, and lithium iron phosphate increased by 80 - 90. The industrial chain is still in the price - rising channel [11]. Group 3: Industry News - Copper in Data Centers: As the power density of AI servers exceeds 100kW/cabinet, high - speed copper cables are gradually replacing some optical modules as the mainstream choice for internal interconnection in data centers. In 2026, the global copper demand in data centers is expected to reach 710,000 tons, with AI - related scenarios contributing over 40% of the increase [12]. - Fortune Minerals: Fortune Minerals received a binding loan offer of CAD 3.8 million (about USD 2.7 million) from Prosper NWT. The loan will help the company acquire a refinery and existing facilities in Lamont County, Alberta. The company plans to build a hydrometallurgical plant there to process concentrates from the NICO cobalt - gold - bismuth - copper mine. The NICO project is in the late - stage development phase, and the mine's core deposit has a reserve of 33.1 million tons [12]. - NICO Project Funding: In March, the NICO project received additional funding support from the Canadian and US governments. The Canadian domestic funding reached CAD 7.5 million (about USD 5.5 million), covering 75% of the CAD 10 million additional engineering and testing work. The US Department of Defense awarded the company USD 6.38 million to expand cobalt production capacity [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the faster - than - expected news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, and the price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although there is uncertainty about the resumption of production, market sentiment improved slightly. The spot price center shifted downwards, and downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points. In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Affected by the news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 68,600. The price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although an insider said there was uncertainty about the resumption, the market sentiment improved limitedly, and the main contract barely stood above 70,000 at the end of the session. The spot price center moved down, with electric carbon dropping 1,150 to 73,450. Downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points due to rigid procurement demand during the peak season [9]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Australian ore dropped 45 to 805 US dollars per ton, and lithium mica ore dropped 50 to 1,815 yuan per ton. The profit of salt factories improved, with the production loss of salt factories purchasing lithium mica narrowing to 7,321 yuan per ton and that of salt factories purchasing lithium spodumene narrowing to 1,507 yuan per ton [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the implementation of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine, and it is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Galan Lithium's Project Progress**: Australian Galan Lithium announced that the first - phase construction of its Hombre Muerto West (HMW) lithium salt project in Argentina has made significant progress. The design of Pool 4 has been completed, which will support an operation of 4,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent. The construction of a nanofiltration plant in Sydney is in progress. The project has a mid - term goal of achieving an annual output of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially increasing to 60,000 tons in 2030 [12]. - **Ningde Times' Mine Resumption**: On September 10, it was learned that Ningde Times' subsidiary Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. held a "Jianxiawo Lithium Mine Resumption Work Meeting" on September 9 to discuss the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo Lithium Mine. The goal is to complete the resumption of production by November this year, but it is uncertain whether this goal can be achieved, and it may be adjusted according to the actual progress. Investors are advised to view market news rationally [12][13].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on lithium carbonate futures dated August 22, 2025, written by researchers Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin from the Nonferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Lithium carbonate futures stopped falling, and the market selling sentiment eased. The logic of production cuts at the lithium resource end still exists, and the futures once turned positive. The spot price of electric carbon dropped by 500 to 85,200, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing resistance to decline [9] - Australian ore remained flat at 960, lithium mica ore dropped by 15 to 2,110, the price of 5-series power ternary materials remained flat, and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 125. The short - term price decline led to price cuts in both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain [9] - The production profit of salt plants purchasing lithium spodumene narrowed to 3,613, and the production loss of salt plants purchasing lithium mica widened to 2,995. This week's weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons compared with last week, and social inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Production is still at a relatively high level, and it is judged that the inflection point of social inventory has appeared [9] - With the spot at a premium and the market's enthusiasm for speculating on ore - end production cuts remaining high before the end of September, it is expected that the downward space for lithium carbonate prices is limited [9] Group 3: Industry News - The Ningxia - Hunan ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project was put into operation on August 20. It is China's first approved UHV transmission channel mainly for transmitting new energy from large - scale wind and photovoltaic bases in the "Sahara - Gobi - Desert" area. The project has a supporting power generation capacity of 17.64 million kilowatts, including 13 million kilowatts of new energy (4 million kilowatts of wind power and 9 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power) [12] - Premier African Minerals announced that its Zulu lithium project has made a major breakthrough, transitioning from the commissioning phase to the refining optimization phase. The project has successfully produced salable spodumene concentrate with a lithium oxide grade of over 5% (up to 6.2%) and achieved full - process automated continuous production [12][13]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with lithium carbonate futures main contract closing at 87,540.0 yuan/ton, down 1.79% [1] - In the spot market, prices for various lithium-related materials increased, including a rise of 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan for electric carbon and 500 yuan for ternary materials [1] - Weekly lithium production increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, while lithium mica production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment improved due to the upcoming expiration of a safety production license for a large mica mine in Jiangxi, leading to cautious upward movement in lithium prices [2] - The domestic demand for lithium is showing signs of recovery as downstream purchasing attitudes shift in response to the strong trend of lithium carbonate [1][2] - Short-term lithium prices may experience upward movement driven by market sentiment, but the extent of the increase is expected to be limited due to regulatory factors and local oversight [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Carbonate lithium futures rose significantly, with the main contract breaking through 90,000 yuan during the session. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan, Australian ore rose by 45 to 1,035, lithium mica ore rose by 85 to 2,185, 5-series power-type ternary materials rose by 500, and lithium iron phosphate rose by 515. The production profit of salt plants purchasing lithium spodumene narrowed to 1,069, and the production loss of salt plants purchasing lithium mica expanded to 4,968. The current futures price has a premium of over 4,000 yuan over the spot price [12]. - **Main Drivers**: The rise was mainly due to the news that the mining license of Qinghai Xitai Jinaier Salt Lake of CITIC Guoan expired, and short - term disturbances in the resource side were the main cause of lithium price fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: The high supply is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, but the market's short - term trading sentiment is still concentrated on the production cuts and suspensions in the lithium resource sector. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium is likely to rise and difficult to fall [12]. Group 3: Industry News - **Ganfeng Lithium**: On August 18, Ganfeng Lithium stated on the interactive platform that the future reversal of lithium prices depends on the intensity of supply - side clearance and the pace of demand growth. The company is optimistic about long - term lithium demand, will adjust production capacity flexibly and optimize hedging strategies, and the current volume of carbonate lithium futures hedging is low [13]. - **India's Policy Proposal**: India proposed to reduce the goods and services tax for entry - level two - wheelers, small cars, and hybrid passenger cars, and the proposal is expected to be implemented before October [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures continued to fluctuate at the bottom, with the total open interest decreasing by 7,341 lots and the long - short game continuing to decline. The spot price increased during the day, with the price of electric carbon rising by 100 to 60,350. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite ore stopped falling, the price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 20 - 30, and the price of ternary materials decreased by 50 - 180. The price cut tide in the industrial chain slowed down, and there were no new changes in the fundamentals. The lithium carbonate futures once broke through the trend line during the day, but the upward trend was frustrated again due to the news of China - US negotiations. In the short term, lithium carbonate is still brewing a rebound, but the momentum is still insufficient. Before the demand side picks up, the price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures continued to fluctuate at the bottom, with a decrease in total open interest and weak short - term rebound momentum. The price is expected to continue weak bottom - side fluctuations before the demand side recovers [8] 3.2. Industry News - Talon Metals plans to raise about C$24 million (US$17.6 million) for its Tamarack nickel - copper - cobalt project in Minnesota. The financing will be carried out through two independent financings, and the company's stock price tumbled as investors digested the pricing. Tamarack is a joint - venture project with Rio Tinto, which holds 51% of the equity [9] - Premium Resources has changed its name to NexMetals Mining to reflect its strategy of supplying key metals such as copper, nickel, and cobalt from Botswana. The name - change plan was approved by shareholders, and its stock will start trading under the new name and ticker "NEXM" on the TSX - V on June 11. The company announced a six - month aggressive strategy in April [9] - The Mianyang Liyuan New Energy Co., Ltd.'s project to produce 12 million lithium - ion energy - storage cells per year in Yanting County, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province, is under environmental impact assessment. The project plans to invest 50 million yuan and purchase more than 100 sets of intelligent equipment to form an annual production capacity of 12 million lithium - ion energy - storage cells [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: June 6, 2025 [1] - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated weakly, with total positions decreasing by 321 lots. The game between long and short positions remained intense, and the spot price center continued to move down. Electric carbon dropped by 50 to 60,200, and the price of Australian lithium ore dropped by 2.5 to $607.5 per ton. The price of lithium mica ore remained flat, and the price of cathode materials also decreased. The downward trend in the industry chain remained unchanged [8]. - This week, the weekly production of carbonate lithium increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons. Except for the decline in production at the recycling end, the production of carbonate lithium from other raw material ends increased, and the pressure on the supply side continued to exist. Whether the price of carbonate lithium can stop falling and rebound still depends on the strength of the demand side. In the short term, the futures price of carbonate lithium has not yet stabilized above the trend line and should still be treated with a weak perspective [8]. Group 3: Industry News - Rio Tinto is adjusting the cost of its lithium project in Serbia, which was identified as one of the 13 strategic new key material projects by the European Commission. The project was opposed by environmental groups and many Serbians due to environmental issues and led to large - scale street protests in 2022, resulting in the government revoking all of Rio Tinto's exploration licenses. The Constitutional Court overturned the decision last year and restored the licenses. The project was originally expected to start production in 2027, and the company still needs to obtain on - site mining licenses [9]. - Metal investor Cobalt Holdings will abandon its planned initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange. The company did not disclose the specific reasons for canceling the plan. Sources revealed that the IPO process was aborted due to weak subscription demand, and the management still看好 the cobalt business model and market prospects and plans to explore alternative financing options such as private placement. The company's original plan to use most of the IPO proceeds (about $200 million) to purchase the first 6,000 tons of cobalt metal from Glencore has not been clearly determined whether to continue [9][10]. - According to the mineral and petroleum exploration data for the first quarter of 2025 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the national exploration activities decreased significantly both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The total exploration expenditure decreased by 18.4% (A$181 million) quarter - on - quarter to A$804.7 million, and the year - on - year decrease was 11.5% (A$105 million), a nearly 20% reduction from the quarterly peak in 2023 (over A$1 billion). Drilling activities also declined, with the new exploration drilling volume decreasing by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter and the total drilling meters decreasing by 11.6% [10].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: April 8, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The carbonated lithium futures decreased with reduced positions, and the risk - asset selling spread to the carbonate lithium market. The futures price has broken the cost price, but the cost - side support is gradually emerging. Attention should be paid to the support around 70,000 yuan for carbonate lithium futures [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures decreased with reduced positions. The main contract once dropped to 70,000 yuan in the morning, breaking the cost support line of lithium mica. The daily closing price fluctuated between 71,000 - 72,000 yuan, and the total positions decreased to 340,000 lots [6] - The spot price of electric - grade carbonate lithium decreased by 1,300 yuan to 72,600 yuan, and industrial - grade carbonate lithium decreased by 1,300 yuan to 70,650 yuan. The spot price remained at a premium compared to the main contract. Upstream lithium salt producers continued to hold firm on prices, and downstream material producers mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude [6] - The price of high - grade lithium spodumene ore decreased by 40 yuan to 5,575 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade lithium mica ore decreased by 15 yuan to 1,725 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream cathode materials also decreased, and the price reduction in the industrial chain was smoothly transmitted downstream [6] - The spot price of carbonate lithium is approaching last year's lowest point, and the futures price has broken the cost price. Although macro - risks are still difficult to eliminate, the cost - side support is gradually emerging. Attention should be paid to the support around 70,000 yuan for carbonate lithium futures [6] Group 5: Industry News - In March 2025, Chile's lithium export volume was 22,976 tons, of which the carbonate lithium export volume was 20,227 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38.5%. The export volume of carbonate lithium to China was 16,594 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38%. Considering the shipping cycle, it is expected to arrive at Chinese ports from April to May. The domestic carbonate lithium production has declined from its peak, and the overseas imports have provided some supplementation, but the supply pressure remains high [7] - Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali is close to completion, and commercial production is about to start. The DMS processing plant has produced more than 11,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate, and production operations are gradually increasing [7][8] - BYD's market value has exceeded CATL's, regaining the top position in the Shenzhen stock market. However, according to the 2024 annual report of public funds, CATL has surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become the most - held stock by public funds, while the number of funds holding BYD is only half of that of CATL, and the total market value of shares held is less than a quarter of CATL's [8]