1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures in February first declined and then rose, with violent price fluctuations. The overall short - term supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, but in the medium and long term, the supply from upstream mines is limited and cannot meet downstream demand, and the supply - demand tension still exists. The price is expected to be mainly in a range - bound pattern. The risk points include the slowdown of demand growth, non - mine supply, and the ramping up of overseas salt lake production [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 February Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In February 2026, the price of lithium carbonate futures first declined and then rose. Affected by factors such as strong demand, continuous inventory reduction, and short - term tightening of African lithium ore supply, the price bottomed out and then strongly rebounded. Near the end of the month, due to the rapid short - term price increase, the price slightly weakened and fluctuated after hitting the previous resistance level. The price fluctuated between 120,000 and 190,000 yuan during the month. The monthly cumulative trading volume was 7.08 million lots, a 49% decrease from the previous month, and the open interest was 710,000 lots, a decrease of 10,000 lots from the previous month. The main contract LC2605 had a monthly increase of 18.8% and an amplitude of 43% [7][8][9] 3.1.2 January Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In February, the spot price of lithium carbonate bottomed out and then rose. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 172,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 168,500 yuan/ton, a 7% increase from the previous month. The price of lithium hydroxide also increased by 7%. The basis fluctuated violently between - 12,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan, and at the end of February, the basis was at - 660 yuan/ton, with the spot and futures prices almost the same [13][14][18] 3.1.3 Price Quotes of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In February, the prices of the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally increased to a certain extent. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose by 13% to 2,385 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 16% due to market capacity release, dragging down the price of electrolyte by 13%. The monthly increase of lithium iron phosphate was 6%, and that of ternary materials was 3% [21] 3.2 Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 Lithium Ore Price Trend and Lithium Carbonate Production Profit - In January, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose from 2,175 US dollars/ton to 2,385 US dollars/ton, a 10% increase. The price of lithium mica concentrate rose from 4,965 yuan/ton to 5,600 yuan/ton, a 13% increase. The production profit of lithium carbonate first decreased and then recovered. The production profit of purchasing spodumene was about 12,000 yuan at the end of the month, and that of purchasing mica was about 5,200 yuan [25][28] 3.2.2 Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In February, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the lithium ore inventory decreased significantly. The inventory of traders decreased significantly, and the inventory of lithium salt plants was at a low level. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to the shutdown in Jiangxi. The current upstream resource supply mainly comes from salt lakes and spodumene. In 2026, it is expected that the domestic mica ore supply will decrease by at least 60,000 tons. The复产 of the Ngungaju factory will increase the LCE capacity by 11,000 tons this year. The CGP3 capacity of Greenbushes is 520,000 tons of concentrate, equivalent to 65,000 tons of LCE production, and it is expected to produce 22,000 tons this year. The new production of Mt Marion and Wodgina lithium mines is 17,000 tons of LCE. If the export ban in Zimbabwe is implemented in the short term, it will affect the annual supply of 10,000 - 20,000 tons of LCE. If the ban persists, the annual supply of lithium carbonate in Zimbabwe will be reduced by at least 80,000 tons [29][34][35] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Lithium Carbonate Production - In February, the production of lithium carbonate was 82,000 tons, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 30% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,000 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 22,000 tons. The main production source was spodumene. The overall capacity utilization rate in February was 47%, and it is expected to recover to 59% in March. It is estimated that the supply of lithium carbonate in March will increase by 28%, setting a new production high [37][44][45] 3.3.2 Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In December 2025, the import of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, and the export was 912 tons, with a net import of 23,100 tons. Chile and Argentina are the main import sources. In January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,900 tons, a 24.83% increase from the previous month and a 10.59% decrease year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume of lithium carbonate in China from January to February will increase significantly, and the import volume in March is also expected to remain at a high level [47][50] 3.3.3 Lithium Hydroxide Production and Apparent Demand - In February, the production of lithium hydroxide was 23,000 tons, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 14% increase year - on - year. In December, the import of lithium hydroxide was 5,093 tons, and the export was 6,318 tons, with a net export of 1,225 tons. Due to the decrease in production in February, the net export will also decline, and the apparent demand in February is expected to be 21,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [51][53] 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate 3.4.1 New Energy Vehicle Sales - In January 2026, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 945,000, a 0.1% increase year - on - year, accounting for 40.3% of the total vehicle sales. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles decreased from 52.3% in December last year to 40%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will increase in March [54][60] 3.4.2 Lithium Battery and Cell Production - In February, the production of lithium batteries by sample enterprises was 169 GWh, including 134 GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries and 26 GWh of ternary batteries. The production of ternary batteries was stable, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries decreased by 13% from the previous month and increased by 61% year - on - year. The monthly production of power cells was 102 GWh, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 24% increase year - on - year. The monthly production of energy - storage cells was 56 GWh, an 11% decrease from the previous month and an 87% increase year - on - year. The cell inventory - to - sales ratio continued to decline, and the inventory was at a low level [63][64] 3.4.3 Cathode Material and Electrolyte Production - In February, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 348,000 tons, a 12% decrease from the previous month and a 53% increase year - on - year. The production of ternary materials was 71,000 tons, a 12% decrease from the previous month and a 48% increase year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream demand decreased by 10 - 15% month - on - month. It is expected that the production of cathode materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, and batteries will increase significantly in March [67][74] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - As of the end of February, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 1 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory days were 28.2 days. The inventory of smelters was 18,000 tons, at a historical low. The overall market was still in a low - inventory state. It is expected that the inventory depletion intensity will weaken in March, and there may even be enterprise restocking behavior. The exchange inventory at the end of February was 38,200 tons [75][79][80] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate Summary and Future Forecast - In the short term, the demand for lithium carbonate is still strong, and the social inventory is in a low - inventory depletion state. However, affected by the rapid recovery and growth of supply in March, the supply - demand tension will be alleviated to some extent, and there will be a certain supply surplus in March. In the medium and long term, the supply from upstream mines is limited and cannot meet downstream demand, and the supply - demand tension still exists. The price is expected to be mainly in a range - bound pattern. If the price of lithium carbonate further declines in March, it may boost downstream procurement and restocking demand [84][86]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced a significant decline of 34% since late January, nearly reversing its gains for the year, primarily due to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which led to a strong rise in the US dollar index and a sharp drop in global risk appetite [1] Supply Side Summary - Lithium ore supply and demand are robust, with prices for Australian spodumene and domestic lithium mica rising by 26% this year. However, lithium salt plants are currently undergoing maintenance, and production in the Yichun area has decreased due to certification changes [2] - In January, China's lithium carbonate production fell by 1% month-on-month to 97,900 tons, with February production expected to drop to 81,900 tons, indicating a downward trend in domestic production [2] - Chile's lithium salt exports in January reached 39,300 tons LCE, a 76% increase month-on-month and a 38.7% year-on-year rise, primarily due to early shipments ahead of the Chinese New Year [2] Demand Side Summary - As the Chinese New Year approaches, production at cathode manufacturers has slowed, but demand from power battery companies has rebounded due to "export rush" strategies. Weekly production of ternary materials has decreased by 11% from last year's peak, while lithium iron phosphate production has dropped by 8.6% [3] - Power battery production, which had been declining for eight consecutive weeks, saw a slight increase of 0.3 GWh last week, reaching 26.7 GWh, driven by manufacturers stocking up ahead of a reduction in export tax rates for lithium batteries [3] - The domestic energy storage market showed strong performance in January, with a 13.7% increase in energy scale to 13.9 GWh, indicating sustained high demand in the energy storage sector [4] Inventory Perspective - As of February 5, domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate was 105,463 tons, with a weekly reduction of 2,019 tons. The inventory structure shows that 41% is concentrated in downstream sectors, indicating strong actual demand [5] - The overall supply pressure for lithium carbonate is gradually easing, with expectations for demand recovery post-holiday, which may lead to further declines in inventory levels [5] - The lithium carbonate market is entering a new phase dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, with short-term price support solidifying as production decreases and import windows close, reducing future overseas supply [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 20, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures price rose, with the main contract 2605 closing at 160,500 yuan/ton, up 8.99% from the previous settlement price. The price increase was driven by supply - side interference expectations in the lithium ore market and continued demand for export tax - rebate - driven downstream enterprises. The overall market trading was active, and some enterprises replenished their stocks. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 and 170,000 yuan/ton, with an increasing risk of correction [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 149,500 yuan/ton and closed at 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price change of 8.99% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 451,074 lots, and the open interest was 415,351 lots, compared to 411,331 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 320 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,681 lots, a change of - 17 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 149,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 145,000 - 153,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,060 US dollars/ton, a change of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The price increase was due to the expected interference in the lithium ore supply side, the postponed resumption of production in Yichun's lithium mica mines, and the continued enthusiasm for export among downstream enterprises due to the export tax - rebate adjustment policy. Some enterprises replenished their stocks after the price correction, and the overall market trading was active [1]. Inventory Analysis - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,727 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,345 tons; the downstream inventory was 35,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 888 tons; and other inventories were 54,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons. Downstream replenishment demand is expected to be gradually released [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate widely between 140,000 and 170,000 yuan/ton, with an increasing risk of correction and a possible decline to the support level of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. The export tax - rebate bonus will support demand before April, but from late January to February, there will be an overlap of upstream maintenance and the traditional downstream off - season, and demand may weaken marginally. Inventory changes will be the key indicator [3]. - For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no strategies for options, inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures trading [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant fluctuations in sentiment and prices due to factors such as the suspension of lithium mining in Jiangxi, a recovering macroeconomic environment, and tightening supply [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - In Australia, Pilgangoora mine is expected to accelerate production in Q4 to meet fiscal year targets, while Kathleen Valley mine has room for increased output after transitioning to underground production [2] - In Africa, the Goulamina mine in Mali is ramping up production, with expectations for further increases in November and December, and the Bougouni mine has begun shipping its first batch of ore [2] - In Brazil, the Mibra Mine is resuming production, which may lead to a slight increase in output [2] - Domestic production in China is expected to remain stable, with challenges in the recovery of certain mines, while lithium spodumene output may see seasonal declines [2] Group 2: Lithium Extraction Methods - For spodumene extraction, raw material supply is abundant, and the main market challenge is the peak in smelting capacity, which is expected to expand alongside spodumene lithium extraction capacity [3] - Mica extraction is limited by raw material supply, leading to stable production in the short term [3] - Recent additions of over 70,000 tons of new capacity in salt lake lithium extraction, primarily using DLE technology, are expected to boost production despite lower temperatures [3] Group 3: Market Trends - In South America, SQM in Chile anticipates a 10% increase in annual lithium salt sales, with a significant rise in shipments in the second half of the year [5] - Argentina's Tres Quebradas salt lake project has commenced production, with a planned capacity of 20,000 tons per year, while other projects are gradually resuming operations [5] - Overall, domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to continue growing due to increased production from spodumene and salt lake sources [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, both supply and demand for lithium carbonate are increasing, but a slowdown in demand growth and a deceleration in inventory reduction may weaken price support [7] - The recent recovery in the macroeconomic environment has led to a general rise in commodity prices, including lithium carbonate, although supply disruptions have caused significant price drops [7]

Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Market Soars and Then Declines, with Intensified Capital Gaming in the Context of Strong Supply and Demand - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report from October 27 - 31, 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate between 80,000 - 84,000 yuan per ton next week, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of warrant cancellations. The current market is in a high - level oscillation stage. The core contradiction lies in the game between the expectation of new capacity release and strong demand. The short - term pattern of strong supply and demand will continue, but capital sentiment fluctuations will intensify price oscillations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The weekly increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 5.29% to 83,600 yuan per ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive to 2,820 yuan per ton. Industrial - grade carbonate lithium also rose 5.39% to 82,150 yuan per ton, with a stable price difference of 1,450 yuan per ton between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The weekly increase of carbonate lithium futures was 5.05%, from 75,700 yuan to 79,520 yuan. The arrival price of battery - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.82% to 79,400 yuan, and the spot price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.77% to 77,950 yuan. The prices of lithium hydroxide remained unchanged [2][4] - **Lithium Salt Premium Changes**: The weekly premium changes of different raw materials and enterprises for lithium carbonate were significant. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials increased by 150 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium Industry increased by 100 yuan [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Carbonate Lithium Production**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained at 74.39%. Although new production lines were put into operation, the actual increase was limited. The production of different regions and raw material sources is also an important part of the supply side [2] - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: The production of energy - storage cells increased by 5% week - on - week to 52GWh, the weekly production of ternary materials reached 18,568 tons, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60%, showing strong demand [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The shipping cost of lithium ore imports was stable with a slight increase. The shipping cost of the Nigerian route increased by 7.14% week - on - week. In September, the import volume decreased by 10% month - on - month, indicating tight overseas supply [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation and Cost**: The shipping costs from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and other countries remained unchanged, while those from Nigeria decreased. For example, the bulk shipping cost from Nigeria decreased by 7.14% [27] - **Carbonate Lithium and Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Social Inventory**: The warrant inventory decreased by 3.76% week - on - week to 27,621 lots, and the available inventory of lithium ore increased by 9.09% to 12,000 tons, with limited overall inventory pressure [2] - **Carbonate Lithium Warrants**: The total number of carbonate lithium warrants decreased by 1,987 lots week - on - week, from 30,686 lots to 28,699 lots [40] Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 82.52% week - on - week to 9,339 yuan per ton, while the lithium mica route still had a loss of 7,681 yuan per ton, and cost differentiation intensified industry reshuffle [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Materials Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Materials Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium Battery Materials and Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate industry has been experiencing a continuous destocking trend for eight weeks since August, driven by stronger demand growth compared to supply [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate reached 316,000 tons, an increase of 9% month-on-month; battery production was 160 GWh, up 11%; and energy storage battery production was 50 GWh, up 13% [1]. - Cumulatively, demand data from January to August showed a year-on-year growth rate higher than the same period last year [1]. - The traditional peak demand season in September and October is expected to maintain positive month-on-month growth, with demand growth exceeding market expectations [1]. Supply Side Summary - Following the suspension of the Jiangxiawo project by CATL on August 9, domestic lithium carbonate production from the mica source decreased significantly from a peak of 5,000 tons per week to 2,500 tons, but has since rebounded to 2,800 tons after the resumption of Yichun Silver Lithium [2]. - The lithium spodumene source's weekly production increased from 9,000 tons in July to 13,000 tons, compensating for the reduction from the mica source and resulting in a total weekly supply exceeding 20,000 tons, a historical high [2]. - The inventory structure in the lithium carbonate industry is improving, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream inventory increasing. Upstream smelter inventory fell from 51,000 tons to 33,000 tons (a 35% decrease), while downstream inventory rose from 48,000 tons to 61,000 tons (a 27% increase) [2]. Market Dynamics - The purchasing willingness of material manufacturers has increased due to sustained demand, with pre-holiday stocking driving procurement efforts. The inventory cycle for downstream material manufacturers has slightly increased from under 14 days to 15-16 days [3]. - As of September 26, lithium carbonate futures prices remained stable around 73,000 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.95% [3]. - Analysts suggest that while the destocking trend continues, the overall inventory reduction is limited due to the balance between demand improvement and supply increase [3]. Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand after the peak season in September and October. If demand weakens, the industry may shift from destocking to restocking, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in lithium carbonate futures prices [3]. - The upcoming October may see supply disturbances as mining companies enter the certification process, which could lead to a return to a more relaxed supply outlook, putting pressure on lithium carbonate prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened high and closed low. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the discount even widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, and the 3C shipments were average. The planned production of energy storage batteries increased in September. The registered warehouse inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. The expected supply contraction is weakening as the resumption of lithium mines is progressing actively. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Investors should be vigilant about the downstream restocking point [1]. - The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 16, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73060 yuan/ton, 73180 yuan/ton, 73340 yuan/ton, and 73340 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 540 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 500267 hands (+17477), and the open interest was 300437 hands (-9009) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 38824 tons (-139 tons) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 330 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 853 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1075 yuan/ton (-82.5 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 1815 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 6090 yuan/ton (+115 yuan/ton), and the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 7065 yuan/ton (-135 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72850 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70600 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg (unchanged), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained/domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized/domestic) was 79020 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 56650 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 81250 yuan/ton (+600 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 79125 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 74675 yuan/ton (+225 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 93800 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119650 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114375 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 118325 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 146650 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33470 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy - storage type) was 32075 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 29300 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 231500 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Cobalt - Related Product Prices**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/imported) was 273000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was 57400 yuan/ton (+725 yuan/ton), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) was 226500 yuan/ton (+1500 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 36213 tons (-3262 tons), the inventory of downstream sectors was 58279 tons (+3072 tons), the inventory of other sectors was 44020 tons (-1390 tons), and the total inventory was 138512 tons (-1580 tons) [1]. 3.4 Company News - On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Lanke Lithium Industry was upgraded through technological innovation, and the current capacity has been increased to 40,000 tons per year. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high - quality industrial development [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of operations at the Jiangxi-based lithium mica mine, Jiangxiawo, owned by CATL, has sparked industry speculation regarding the duration of the shutdown and its implications for the lithium market [1][2][5]. Company Summary - CATL is currently processing the renewal application for the mining license, and the company asserts that the suspension will not significantly impact its overall operations [2][21]. - The Jiangxiawo mine is CATL's largest lithium mica mine, and its activities are crucial for the lithium mica and carbonate markets [5][21]. Industry Summary - The Jiangxiawo mine's suspension began on August 10, 2023, following the expiration of its mining license on August 9, 2023 [7][21]. - The mine's average ore grade is approximately 0.27%, making it one of the higher-cost mines in Jiangxi [21]. - The total output of lithium carbonate in 2024 is projected to be 1.33 million tons, with 222,000 tons (16.4%) sourced from lithium mica [18][21]. - The suspension has led to speculation about the broader implications for lithium supply and demand dynamics, with concerns that supply growth may outpace demand growth, potentially leading to a decline in lithium prices [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation shows that supply exceeds demand, and the price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The supply is stable with an expected increase in South American imports, while short - term demand growth is slower than supply. The price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend, and a high - selling strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Supply Side - In April, domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 9% month - on - month. This week, production decreased by 795 tons to 15,048 tons. In March, production increased by 24% month - on - month to 78,730 tons. Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year. In March, China imported 534,500 tons of lithium ore, a 6% month - on - month decrease, and 18,100 tons of lithium carbonate, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers [4] Demand Side - In May, the overall production schedule is expected to be flat month - on - month. In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a 0.03% month - on - month decrease and a 49.0% year - on - year increase. Exports were 22.3GWh, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease and a 64.2% year - on - year increase. Sales were 118.1GWh, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 73.5% year - on - year increase. Policies are expected to support the new energy vehicle market [5] Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons to 34,543 tons, market inventory increased by 560 tons, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 851 tons [5] Strategy Suggestion - Supply is stable with expected high South American imports. Demand is good but affected by the US tariff policy. The short - term demand growth is slower than supply, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain under pressure. A high - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts and cathode material production schedules [5] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the average price of lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and related products; production and inventory data of lithium carbonate, power batteries, and cathode materials; and import data of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over different time periods (weekly, monthly, and yearly) [7][8][11]