Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant fluctuations in sentiment and prices due to factors such as the suspension of lithium mining in Jiangxi, a recovering macroeconomic environment, and tightening supply [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - In Australia, Pilgangoora mine is expected to accelerate production in Q4 to meet fiscal year targets, while Kathleen Valley mine has room for increased output after transitioning to underground production [2] - In Africa, the Goulamina mine in Mali is ramping up production, with expectations for further increases in November and December, and the Bougouni mine has begun shipping its first batch of ore [2] - In Brazil, the Mibra Mine is resuming production, which may lead to a slight increase in output [2] - Domestic production in China is expected to remain stable, with challenges in the recovery of certain mines, while lithium spodumene output may see seasonal declines [2] Group 2: Lithium Extraction Methods - For spodumene extraction, raw material supply is abundant, and the main market challenge is the peak in smelting capacity, which is expected to expand alongside spodumene lithium extraction capacity [3] - Mica extraction is limited by raw material supply, leading to stable production in the short term [3] - Recent additions of over 70,000 tons of new capacity in salt lake lithium extraction, primarily using DLE technology, are expected to boost production despite lower temperatures [3] Group 3: Market Trends - In South America, SQM in Chile anticipates a 10% increase in annual lithium salt sales, with a significant rise in shipments in the second half of the year [5] - Argentina's Tres Quebradas salt lake project has commenced production, with a planned capacity of 20,000 tons per year, while other projects are gradually resuming operations [5] - Overall, domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to continue growing due to increased production from spodumene and salt lake sources [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, both supply and demand for lithium carbonate are increasing, but a slowdown in demand growth and a deceleration in inventory reduction may weaken price support [7] - The recent recovery in the macroeconomic environment has led to a general rise in commodity prices, including lithium carbonate, although supply disruptions have caused significant price drops [7]

Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Market Soars and Then Declines, with Intensified Capital Gaming in the Context of Strong Supply and Demand - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report from October 27 - 31, 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate between 80,000 - 84,000 yuan per ton next week, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of warrant cancellations. The current market is in a high - level oscillation stage. The core contradiction lies in the game between the expectation of new capacity release and strong demand. The short - term pattern of strong supply and demand will continue, but capital sentiment fluctuations will intensify price oscillations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The weekly increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 5.29% to 83,600 yuan per ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive to 2,820 yuan per ton. Industrial - grade carbonate lithium also rose 5.39% to 82,150 yuan per ton, with a stable price difference of 1,450 yuan per ton between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The weekly increase of carbonate lithium futures was 5.05%, from 75,700 yuan to 79,520 yuan. The arrival price of battery - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.82% to 79,400 yuan, and the spot price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.77% to 77,950 yuan. The prices of lithium hydroxide remained unchanged [2][4] - **Lithium Salt Premium Changes**: The weekly premium changes of different raw materials and enterprises for lithium carbonate were significant. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials increased by 150 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium Industry increased by 100 yuan [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Carbonate Lithium Production**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained at 74.39%. Although new production lines were put into operation, the actual increase was limited. The production of different regions and raw material sources is also an important part of the supply side [2] - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: The production of energy - storage cells increased by 5% week - on - week to 52GWh, the weekly production of ternary materials reached 18,568 tons, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60%, showing strong demand [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The shipping cost of lithium ore imports was stable with a slight increase. The shipping cost of the Nigerian route increased by 7.14% week - on - week. In September, the import volume decreased by 10% month - on - month, indicating tight overseas supply [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation and Cost**: The shipping costs from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and other countries remained unchanged, while those from Nigeria decreased. For example, the bulk shipping cost from Nigeria decreased by 7.14% [27] - **Carbonate Lithium and Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Social Inventory**: The warrant inventory decreased by 3.76% week - on - week to 27,621 lots, and the available inventory of lithium ore increased by 9.09% to 12,000 tons, with limited overall inventory pressure [2] - **Carbonate Lithium Warrants**: The total number of carbonate lithium warrants decreased by 1,987 lots week - on - week, from 30,686 lots to 28,699 lots [40] Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 82.52% week - on - week to 9,339 yuan per ton, while the lithium mica route still had a loss of 7,681 yuan per ton, and cost differentiation intensified industry reshuffle [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Materials Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Materials Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium Battery Materials and Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate industry has been experiencing a continuous destocking trend for eight weeks since August, driven by stronger demand growth compared to supply [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate reached 316,000 tons, an increase of 9% month-on-month; battery production was 160 GWh, up 11%; and energy storage battery production was 50 GWh, up 13% [1]. - Cumulatively, demand data from January to August showed a year-on-year growth rate higher than the same period last year [1]. - The traditional peak demand season in September and October is expected to maintain positive month-on-month growth, with demand growth exceeding market expectations [1]. Supply Side Summary - Following the suspension of the Jiangxiawo project by CATL on August 9, domestic lithium carbonate production from the mica source decreased significantly from a peak of 5,000 tons per week to 2,500 tons, but has since rebounded to 2,800 tons after the resumption of Yichun Silver Lithium [2]. - The lithium spodumene source's weekly production increased from 9,000 tons in July to 13,000 tons, compensating for the reduction from the mica source and resulting in a total weekly supply exceeding 20,000 tons, a historical high [2]. - The inventory structure in the lithium carbonate industry is improving, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream inventory increasing. Upstream smelter inventory fell from 51,000 tons to 33,000 tons (a 35% decrease), while downstream inventory rose from 48,000 tons to 61,000 tons (a 27% increase) [2]. Market Dynamics - The purchasing willingness of material manufacturers has increased due to sustained demand, with pre-holiday stocking driving procurement efforts. The inventory cycle for downstream material manufacturers has slightly increased from under 14 days to 15-16 days [3]. - As of September 26, lithium carbonate futures prices remained stable around 73,000 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.95% [3]. - Analysts suggest that while the destocking trend continues, the overall inventory reduction is limited due to the balance between demand improvement and supply increase [3]. Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand after the peak season in September and October. If demand weakens, the industry may shift from destocking to restocking, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in lithium carbonate futures prices [3]. - The upcoming October may see supply disturbances as mining companies enter the certification process, which could lead to a return to a more relaxed supply outlook, putting pressure on lithium carbonate prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened high and closed low. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the discount even widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, and the 3C shipments were average. The planned production of energy storage batteries increased in September. The registered warehouse inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. The expected supply contraction is weakening as the resumption of lithium mines is progressing actively. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Investors should be vigilant about the downstream restocking point [1]. - The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 16, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73060 yuan/ton, 73180 yuan/ton, 73340 yuan/ton, and 73340 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 540 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 500267 hands (+17477), and the open interest was 300437 hands (-9009) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 38824 tons (-139 tons) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 330 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 853 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1075 yuan/ton (-82.5 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 1815 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 6090 yuan/ton (+115 yuan/ton), and the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 7065 yuan/ton (-135 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72850 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70600 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg (unchanged), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained/domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized/domestic) was 79020 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 56650 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 81250 yuan/ton (+600 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 79125 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 74675 yuan/ton (+225 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 93800 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119650 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114375 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 118325 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 146650 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33470 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy - storage type) was 32075 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 29300 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 231500 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Cobalt - Related Product Prices**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/imported) was 273000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was 57400 yuan/ton (+725 yuan/ton), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) was 226500 yuan/ton (+1500 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 36213 tons (-3262 tons), the inventory of downstream sectors was 58279 tons (+3072 tons), the inventory of other sectors was 44020 tons (-1390 tons), and the total inventory was 138512 tons (-1580 tons) [1]. 3.4 Company News - On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Lanke Lithium Industry was upgraded through technological innovation, and the current capacity has been increased to 40,000 tons per year. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high - quality industrial development [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of operations at the Jiangxi-based lithium mica mine, Jiangxiawo, owned by CATL, has sparked industry speculation regarding the duration of the shutdown and its implications for the lithium market [1][2][5]. Company Summary - CATL is currently processing the renewal application for the mining license, and the company asserts that the suspension will not significantly impact its overall operations [2][21]. - The Jiangxiawo mine is CATL's largest lithium mica mine, and its activities are crucial for the lithium mica and carbonate markets [5][21]. Industry Summary - The Jiangxiawo mine's suspension began on August 10, 2023, following the expiration of its mining license on August 9, 2023 [7][21]. - The mine's average ore grade is approximately 0.27%, making it one of the higher-cost mines in Jiangxi [21]. - The total output of lithium carbonate in 2024 is projected to be 1.33 million tons, with 222,000 tons (16.4%) sourced from lithium mica [18][21]. - The suspension has led to speculation about the broader implications for lithium supply and demand dynamics, with concerns that supply growth may outpace demand growth, potentially leading to a decline in lithium prices [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation shows that supply exceeds demand, and the price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The supply is stable with an expected increase in South American imports, while short - term demand growth is slower than supply. The price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend, and a high - selling strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Supply Side - In April, domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 9% month - on - month. This week, production decreased by 795 tons to 15,048 tons. In March, production increased by 24% month - on - month to 78,730 tons. Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year. In March, China imported 534,500 tons of lithium ore, a 6% month - on - month decrease, and 18,100 tons of lithium carbonate, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers [4] Demand Side - In May, the overall production schedule is expected to be flat month - on - month. In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a 0.03% month - on - month decrease and a 49.0% year - on - year increase. Exports were 22.3GWh, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease and a 64.2% year - on - year increase. Sales were 118.1GWh, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 73.5% year - on - year increase. Policies are expected to support the new energy vehicle market [5] Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons to 34,543 tons, market inventory increased by 560 tons, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 851 tons [5] Strategy Suggestion - Supply is stable with expected high South American imports. Demand is good but affected by the US tariff policy. The short - term demand growth is slower than supply, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain under pressure. A high - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts and cathode material production schedules [5] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the average price of lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and related products; production and inventory data of lithium carbonate, power batteries, and cathode materials; and import data of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over different time periods (weekly, monthly, and yearly) [7][8][11]