碳酸锂 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 88940 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.74%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-9220 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 2040 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 26766 手，较前日增加 155 手 （+0.58%），近 10 个交易日仓单整体增加。 【供需关系】储能电芯需求超预期。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a pattern of strong supply and demand. However, there is an expectation that the power demand may peak and weaken at the end of the year. The downstream market is adopting a wait - and - see attitude towards high prices, leading to a sluggish spot market. It is expected that the game between bulls and bears will intensify, and the price fluctuation risk of lithium carbonate will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, and the operating range is expected to be between 71,000 and 91,000 [6][96] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, with a weekly decline of 0.07%. The trading volume decreased to 3.47 million lots (-180,000), and the open interest decreased to 491,000 lots (-194,000). The basis was at a discount of 1,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, while lithium mica production was 7,700 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5%. In September, the import volume of lithium concentrate reached 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China reached 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [13][17][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 45%, with a scheduled production of 29,970 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [40] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 88,990 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 19,234 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. In September, the import volume increased while the export volume decreased [44] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In November, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 49%, with a scheduled production of 92,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. In September, the export volume increased slightly [53] 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In November, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, with a scheduled production of 11,990 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, with a scheduled production of 13,585 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [58] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. In September, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [63] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In September, the production of power batteries was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. The loading volume was 76 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.4%. Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, and the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.41 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [66][67] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume was 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [72] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In November, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 55.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 31.2%. In September, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [78] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In September, the production of Chinese smartphones was 122.75 million units, a month - on - month increase of 22.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 30.98 million units, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [81] 3.5 Cost - The prices of lithium ore, lithium spodumene concentrate, and lithium mica all decreased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by 17 US dollars per ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 60 yuan per ton [86] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 3,405 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 1,336 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,280 tons, and other inventories decreased by 790 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 740 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 663 tons [91][92] 3.7 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the fundamentals show strong supply and demand, but there are concerns about end - year demand weakening. The game between bulls and bears will intensify, and price fluctuations will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, with an expected operating range of 71,000 - 91,000 [96]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Stronger Operation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate strongly, with a trend strength of 1 on a scale from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs **A. Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate** - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 80,560, the volume was 16,374, and the open interest was 148,084. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 81,000, the volume was 38,071, and the open interest was 317,676 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 19,389 hands [3] - **Basis**: The spot - 2509 basis was -6,060, and the spot - 2511 basis was -6,500 [3] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 840, battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 [3] - **Downstream Consumption**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are also provided [3] **B. Macro and Industry News** - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,567 yuan/ton, up 2,606 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 74,500 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,600 - 73,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton [4] - **Company News**: CATL suspended mining operations at its Yichun project after the mining license expired on August 9 and is applying for a renewal, with little impact on its overall operations [5] - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In July, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 54.0%, up 2.7 percentage points year - on - year. New forces' share was 21.4%, up 2 percentage points year - on - year, while Tesla's share was 4.1%, down 1.1 percentage points year - on - year [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., has approved a total guarantee amount of RMB 3,635 million for its subsidiaries to support their development and operational needs, with specific allocations based on their debt ratios [1][12]. Group 1: Guarantee Overview - The company has agreed to provide a joint liability guarantee of RMB 2,521 million to its subsidiaries and an additional RMB 1,114 million for inter-subsidiary guarantees, totaling RMB 3,635 million [1]. - The guarantee is valid for 12 months from the date of approval by the shareholders' meeting, allowing for adjustments among the guarantee amounts [1]. Group 2: Financial Data of Minera Exar S.A. - Minera Exar S.A., an Argentine mining and exploration company, is 46.67% owned by the company through its wholly-owned subsidiary [3]. - As of the announcement date, Minera Exar's audited total assets are USD 194,860.78 million, with total liabilities of USD 145,149.54 million, resulting in a net asset of USD 49,711.24 million [4][5]. - The company's debt ratio is reported at 77.50% as of March 31, 2025 [5]. Group 3: Financial Data of Subsidiaries - Xinyu Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. has total assets of RMB 97,087.27 million and total liabilities of RMB 76,910.84 million, with a net asset of RMB 20,176.43 million [6]. - Jiangxi Ganfeng Recycling Technology Co., Ltd. has total assets of RMB 160,974.90 million and total liabilities of RMB 92,061.69 million, resulting in a net asset of RMB 68,913.21 million [8]. - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Battery Technology Co., Ltd. has total assets of RMB 1,811,957.66 million and total liabilities of RMB 1,076,984.64 million, with a net asset of RMB 734,973.02 million [9]. Group 4: Guarantee Contracts - The company has signed a maximum guarantee contract with Postal Savings Bank for RMB 50 million for its subsidiary Xinyu Ganfeng [10]. - A supplementary guarantee contract with Pudong Development Bank extends the guarantee period for Jiangxi Ganfeng Recycling Technology Co., Ltd. for RMB 50 million [11]. - A guarantee contract with Bank of China for RMB 60 million is established for Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Battery Technology Co., Ltd. [11]. Group 5: Necessity and Reasonableness of Guarantees - The guarantees are deemed necessary to support the operational funding of the subsidiaries and are within the approved limits by the shareholders' meeting [12]. - The company maintains that the guarantees will not affect its ongoing operational capabilities and do not harm the interests of investors, particularly minority shareholders [12].