Research View - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 2.55% to CNY 168,780 per ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by CNY 6,000 per ton to CNY 164,500 per ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by CNY 6,000 per ton to CNY 161,000 per ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by CNY 5,000 per ton to CNY 156,500 per ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 230 tons to 28,886 tons [3]. - According to the preliminary calculation of the Passenger Car Association, the total retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars this month is expected to be around 1.8 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year flat to slightly increase. Among them, new energy retail sales can reach around 800,000 units, with a penetration rate of 44.4% [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 388 tons to 22,217 tons. The output of lithium extracted from spodumene decreased by 210 tons to 13,914 tons, the output of lithium extracted from lepidolite decreased by 54 tons to 2,882 tons, the output of lithium extracted from salt lakes decreased by 30 tons to 3,115 tons, and the output of lithium extracted from recycled materials decreased by 94 tons to 2,306 tons. On the demand side, in January 2026, the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the production of iron - lithium power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the production of iron - lithium energy storage batteries is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 783 tons to 108,898 tons. Among them, the inventory of downstream increased by 1,940 tons to 37,592 tons, the inventory of other links decreased by 2,830 tons to 51,470 tons, and the inventory of upstream increased by 107 tons to 19,834 tons [3]. - Due to the dual disturbances of supply and cost at the resource end, maintenance and export rush may lead to the expectation of inventory reduction in the first quarter. Without negative feedback on demand in the industry, a bullish approach is recommended. The short - term demand can be verified by the weekly replenishment demand of downstream. However, the inventory turnover days are still low. Considering the upcoming Spring Festival, downstream still has the motivation to replenish inventory. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the amplification of market volatility and the impact of positions [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - The main contract closing price of lithium carbonate futures rose from CNY 166,740 per ton on January 21, 2026, to CNY 168,780 per ton on January 22, 2026, an increase of CNY 2,040. The continuous contract closing price rose from CNY 165,080 per ton to CNY 166,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,420. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from USD 2,035 per ton to USD 2,130 per ton, an increase of USD 95. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased from CNY 3,060 per ton to CNY 3,200 per ton, an increase of CNY 140. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased from CNY 4,835 per ton to CNY 4,975 per ton, an increase of CNY 140. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased from CNY 15,350 per ton to CNY 15,750 per ton, an increase of CNY 400. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased from CNY 16,950 per ton to CNY 17,350 per ton, an increase of CNY 400 [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) increased from CNY 158,500 per ton to CNY 164,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 6,000. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) increased from CNY 155,000 per ton to CNY 161,000 per ton, an increase of CNY 6,000. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from CNY 151,500 per ton to CNY 156,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 5,000. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) increased from CNY 156,350 per ton to CNY 161,350 per ton, an increase of CNY 5,000. The price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from CNY 143,900 per ton to CNY 148,900 per ton, an increase of CNY 5,000. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased from USD 16.8 per kg to USD 18.75 per kg, an increase of USD 1.95 [5]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased from CNY 149,500 per ton to CNY 148,500 per ton, a decrease of CNY 1,000. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at CNY 3,500 per ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from CNY 7,000 per ton to CNY 8,000 per ton, a decrease of CNY 1,000. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased from CNY - 33,876.48 per ton to CNY - 25,214.38 per ton, an increase of CNY 8,662 [5]. - The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power - type) decreased from CNY 119,150 per ton to CNY 119,100 per ton, a decrease of CNY 50. The price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer - type) decreased from CNY 105,250 per ton to CNY 105,050 per ton, a decrease of CNY 200. The price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) decreased from CNY 98,700 per ton to CNY 98,650 per ton, a decrease of CNY 50. The price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) decreased from CNY 119,200 per ton to CNY 119,100 per ton, a decrease of CNY 100 [5]. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from CNY 193,000 per ton to CNY 194,600 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,600. The price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) increased from CNY 182,600 per ton to CNY 183,800 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,200. The price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from CNY 187,900 per ton to CNY 189,200 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,300. The price of ternary material 811 (power - type) increased from CNY 205,700 per ton to CNY 206,400 per ton, an increase of CNY 700 [5]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) increased from CNY 55,595 per ton to CNY 57,050 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,455. The price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) increased from CNY 54,045 per ton to CNY 55,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,455. The price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased from CNY 50,470 per ton to CNY 51,870 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,400. The price of lithium manganate (power - type) increased from CNY 57,000 per ton to CNY 57,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 500. The price of lithium manganate (capacity - type) increased from CNY 55,000 per ton to CNY 55,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 500. The price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained at CNY 404,500 per ton [5]. - The price of 523 square ternary cells increased from CNY 0.525 per Wh to CNY 0.526 per Wh, an increase of CNY 0.001. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained at CNY 0.54 per Wh. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased from CNY 4.85 per piece to CNY 4.95 per piece, an increase of CNY 0.1. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells increased from CNY 0.356 per Wh to CNY 0.357 per Wh, an increase of CNY 0.001. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power - type) increased from CNY 0.47 per Wh to CNY 0.48 per Wh, an increase of CNY 0.01. The price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased from CNY 7.75 per Ah to CNY 7.85 per Ah, an increase of CNY 0.1. The price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries remained at CNY 0.306 per Wh [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [19][20][21]. Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][30]. Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][36]. Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 5, 2025, to January 22, 2026 [38][40]. Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2026 [43][44].

Group 1: Report Summary - The main contract LC2601.GFE of lithium carbonate futures closed at 99,300 yuan/ton, up 5,780 yuan/ton (+6.18%) from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 88,940 yuan/ton, up 1.74% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The current basis was -9,220 points, with a negative basis (spot discount), 2,040 points weaker than the previous day, and the basis has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 26,766 lots, an increase of 155 lots (+0.58%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The demand for energy storage cells exceeded expectations [4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Lithium-related product prices showed different changes, with some prices rising compared to the previous day and week, while others remained unchanged [6]. - For example, the price of Australian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate was in the range of $1,180 - $1,240/ton, up $20 - $60 from the previous day and $200 - $210 from the previous week [6]. Group 3: Related Charts - The report includes various charts showing the price trends of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, and other products, as well as the basis of lithium carbonate, the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, etc. [8] - There are also charts for cathode and ternary materials, showing the price trends of manganese acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][14] - Additionally, there are charts for other relevant data of lithium carbonate futures, such as trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a pattern of strong supply and demand. However, there is an expectation that the power demand may peak and weaken at the end of the year. The downstream market is adopting a wait - and - see attitude towards high prices, leading to a sluggish spot market. It is expected that the game between bulls and bears will intensify, and the price fluctuation risk of lithium carbonate will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, and the operating range is expected to be between 71,000 and 91,000 [6][96] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, with a weekly decline of 0.07%. The trading volume decreased to 3.47 million lots (-180,000), and the open interest decreased to 491,000 lots (-194,000). The basis was at a discount of 1,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, while lithium mica production was 7,700 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5%. In September, the import volume of lithium concentrate reached 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China reached 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [13][17][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 45%, with a scheduled production of 29,970 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [40] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 88,990 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 19,234 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. In September, the import volume increased while the export volume decreased [44] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In November, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 49%, with a scheduled production of 92,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. In September, the export volume increased slightly [53] 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In November, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, with a scheduled production of 11,990 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, with a scheduled production of 13,585 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [58] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. In September, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [63] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In September, the production of power batteries was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. The loading volume was 76 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.4%. Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, and the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.41 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [66][67] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume was 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [72] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In November, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 55.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 31.2%. In September, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [78] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In September, the production of Chinese smartphones was 122.75 million units, a month - on - month increase of 22.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 30.98 million units, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [81] 3.5 Cost - The prices of lithium ore, lithium spodumene concentrate, and lithium mica all decreased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by 17 US dollars per ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 60 yuan per ton [86] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 3,405 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 1,336 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,280 tons, and other inventories decreased by 790 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 740 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 663 tons [91][92] 3.7 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the fundamentals show strong supply and demand, but there are concerns about end - year demand weakening. The game between bulls and bears will intensify, and price fluctuations will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, with an expected operating range of 71,000 - 91,000 [96]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Stronger Operation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate strongly, with a trend strength of 1 on a scale from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs **A. Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate** - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 80,560, the volume was 16,374, and the open interest was 148,084. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 81,000, the volume was 38,071, and the open interest was 317,676 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 19,389 hands [3] - **Basis**: The spot - 2509 basis was -6,060, and the spot - 2511 basis was -6,500 [3] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 840, battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 [3] - **Downstream Consumption**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are also provided [3] **B. Macro and Industry News** - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,567 yuan/ton, up 2,606 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 74,500 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,600 - 73,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton [4] - **Company News**: CATL suspended mining operations at its Yichun project after the mining license expired on August 9 and is applying for a renewal, with little impact on its overall operations [5] - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In July, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 54.0%, up 2.7 percentage points year - on - year. New forces' share was 21.4%, up 2 percentage points year - on - year, while Tesla's share was 4.1%, down 1.1 percentage points year - on - year [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., has approved a total guarantee amount of RMB 3,635 million for its subsidiaries to support their development and operational needs, with specific allocations based on their debt ratios [1][12]. Group 1: Guarantee Overview - The company has agreed to provide a joint liability guarantee of RMB 2,521 million to its subsidiaries and an additional RMB 1,114 million for inter-subsidiary guarantees, totaling RMB 3,635 million [1]. - The guarantee is valid for 12 months from the date of approval by the shareholders' meeting, allowing for adjustments among the guarantee amounts [1]. Group 2: Financial Data of Minera Exar S.A. - Minera Exar S.A., an Argentine mining and exploration company, is 46.67% owned by the company through its wholly-owned subsidiary [3]. - As of the announcement date, Minera Exar's audited total assets are USD 194,860.78 million, with total liabilities of USD 145,149.54 million, resulting in a net asset of USD 49,711.24 million [4][5]. - The company's debt ratio is reported at 77.50% as of March 31, 2025 [5]. Group 3: Financial Data of Subsidiaries - Xinyu Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. has total assets of RMB 97,087.27 million and total liabilities of RMB 76,910.84 million, with a net asset of RMB 20,176.43 million [6]. - Jiangxi Ganfeng Recycling Technology Co., Ltd. has total assets of RMB 160,974.90 million and total liabilities of RMB 92,061.69 million, resulting in a net asset of RMB 68,913.21 million [8]. - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Battery Technology Co., Ltd. has total assets of RMB 1,811,957.66 million and total liabilities of RMB 1,076,984.64 million, with a net asset of RMB 734,973.02 million [9]. Group 4: Guarantee Contracts - The company has signed a maximum guarantee contract with Postal Savings Bank for RMB 50 million for its subsidiary Xinyu Ganfeng [10]. - A supplementary guarantee contract with Pudong Development Bank extends the guarantee period for Jiangxi Ganfeng Recycling Technology Co., Ltd. for RMB 50 million [11]. - A guarantee contract with Bank of China for RMB 60 million is established for Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Battery Technology Co., Ltd. [11]. Group 5: Necessity and Reasonableness of Guarantees - The guarantees are deemed necessary to support the operational funding of the subsidiaries and are within the approved limits by the shareholders' meeting [12]. - The company maintains that the guarantees will not affect its ongoing operational capabilities and do not harm the interests of investors, particularly minority shareholders [12].