1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a pattern of strong supply and demand. However, there is an expectation that the power demand may peak and weaken at the end of the year. The downstream market is adopting a wait - and - see attitude towards high prices, leading to a sluggish spot market. It is expected that the game between bulls and bears will intensify, and the price fluctuation risk of lithium carbonate will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, and the operating range is expected to be between 71,000 and 91,000 [6][96] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, with a weekly decline of 0.07%. The trading volume decreased to 3.47 million lots (-180,000), and the open interest decreased to 491,000 lots (-194,000). The basis was at a discount of 1,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, while lithium mica production was 7,700 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5%. In September, the import volume of lithium concentrate reached 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China reached 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [13][17][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 45%, with a scheduled production of 29,970 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [40] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 88,990 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 19,234 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. In September, the import volume increased while the export volume decreased [44] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In November, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 49%, with a scheduled production of 92,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. In September, the export volume increased slightly [53] 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In November, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, with a scheduled production of 11,990 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, with a scheduled production of 13,585 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [58] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. In September, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [63] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In September, the production of power batteries was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. The loading volume was 76 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.4%. Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, and the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.41 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [66][67] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume was 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [72] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In November, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 55.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 31.2%. In September, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [78] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In September, the production of Chinese smartphones was 122.75 million units, a month - on - month increase of 22.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 30.98 million units, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [81] 3.5 Cost - The prices of lithium ore, lithium spodumene concentrate, and lithium mica all decreased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by 17 US dollars per ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 60 yuan per ton [86] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 3,405 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 1,336 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,280 tons, and other inventories decreased by 790 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 740 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 663 tons [91][92] 3.7 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the fundamentals show strong supply and demand, but there are concerns about end - year demand weakening. The game between bulls and bears will intensify, and price fluctuations will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, with an expected operating range of 71,000 - 91,000 [96]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a pattern of strong supply and demand. New production capacities are being released, and maintenance devices are restarting, leading to a significant increase in production. Although social inventories are accumulating, they are still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm [4]. - The PP market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge, with enterprises and traders' inventories accumulating, while downstream maintains low inventories. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the peak season [8]. - The propylene market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price trend is more likely to be range - bound. In August, the weak pattern of the propylene market is difficult to change, and the monthly average price is expected to fluctuate around 6350 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic Market - **This Week's Review**: The L2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7251, 7344], with an opening price of 7312 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7290 yuan/ton. The market followed cost and sentiment for range - bound fluctuations. The far - month L2601 contract was firm [3][16]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Production is expected to increase by 1.5 tons week - on - week. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Social inventories are accumulating but are still at a relatively low level. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks [4]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The L2509 contract should focus on the range of [7200 - 7350]. Hold the long LP09 arbitrage. Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [6]. 3.2 PP Market - **This Week's Review**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7047, 7108], with an opening price of 7098 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7062 yuan/ton. The market followed macro - sentiment fluctuations, with significantly reduced volatility and a downward - shifting center of gravity. The fundamentals showed little supply - demand contradiction, with both supply and demand being weak [7][55]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge [8]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The PP2509 contract should focus on the range of [7000 - 7200]. Wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Propylene Market - **This Week's Review**: The PL2601 contract fluctuated in the range of [6416, 6555], with an opening price of 6480 yuan/ton and a closing price of 6451 yuan/ton [10][83]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: A new propylene plant in Ningbo has produced products and plans to export. A large number of propylene shipments may enter the market in the short term, suppressing the US dollar market price. The demand side has seen some improvement in production enthusiasm. The market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price is expected to be range - bound [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks at the current low price level. The PL2601 contract should focus on the range of [6300 - 6500]. Hold the long PP - PL01 spread arbitrage [12]. 3.4 Macro Review and Outlook - **This Week's Review**: The overall weekly increase was PVC > polyolefin = commodity > energy - chemical. Coking coal continued its upward trend, and PVC was more affected by the cost - side coal. WTI oil prices fell below the key support level, and the oil - chemical sector was weak [13]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Pay attention to tariff dynamics and domestic anti - involution policy changes [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The spot steel prices fluctuated slightly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. The supply from blast furnaces increased, but the output from electric arc furnaces decreased. The de - stocking speed of building materials slowed down, and the inventory of plates increased significantly. The demand for building materials weakened seasonally, and both domestic and external demand for plates declined month - on - month. The profit of steel mills expanded due to coke price cuts. The basis narrowed significantly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were closed at a profit. Overall, in June, the blast furnace operation continued to rise, hot metal production recovered slightly, and electric arc furnaces continued to cut production. Considering the pressure of declining demand for finished products in July and August, a medium - term short - selling strategy is maintained. Hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. Iron Ore - The spot iron ore prices dropped significantly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. Global shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival of resources at ports also increased. Hot metal production remained at a high level and is expected to maintain its resilience. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices fluctuated downward. There is no trading space in the futures price spread, but attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01. In June, the supply was abundant, and demand was strong. Affected by the improvement in the coal fundamentals, the ore price rebounded strongly. However, considering the drag of off - season finished products, the probability of further price increases is low. A long - term short - selling strategy is maintained, and attention should be paid to opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - In June, the price of rebar was in a low - level oscillation, with the rebar 10 - contract futures price rising by 48 to 3009 and the hot - rolled coil futures price rising by 53 to 3129. In the spot market, the Shanghai rebar price was 3090 (down 40), and the hot - rolled coil price was 3200 (up 40). The hot - rolled coil was significantly stronger than rebar, mainly due to seasonal factors [8]. 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production remained at a high level. As of June 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82% (unchanged from the previous week and up 0.71 percentage points year - on - year), the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83% (up 0.04 percentage points from the previous week and up 1.70 percentage points year - on - year), and the daily average hot metal output was 242.29 tons (up 0.11 tons from the previous week and up 2.85 tons year - on - year). The output of building materials decreased, with the long - process rebar output dropping by 80,000 tons. The electric arc furnace supply decreased significantly. As of the end of June, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.5% (down 0.04 percentage points from the previous month and up 3.13 percentage points year - on - year) [11][19]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by nearly 300,000 tons month - on - month in June, and was 140,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The actual terminal demand, represented by the national concrete shipment, decreased by 10% month - on - month. The speculative demand decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month, but there was a slight increase at the end of the month. For hot - rolled coils, the apparent demand was basically flat compared with May. Domestic demand was weak, with the off - season characteristics of the automobile industry being obvious and the demand for household appliances declining year - on - year. The external demand for plates was weak [25][28]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of blast furnace steelmaking continued to increase, mainly due to two rounds of coke price cuts. The profit of rebar in Tangshan expanded by 80, approaching 230, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was similar. The loss of electric arc furnace steelmaking expanded, mainly due to the relatively high price of scrap steel [32]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, as of June 30, the social inventory decreased by 310,000 tons month - on - month, and the mill inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. The de - stocking speed slowed down, but the inventory accumulation period had not yet arrived. For hot - rolled coils, the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons, and the mill inventory increased by 30,000 tons. It entered the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory pressure was gradually emerging [35][39]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed significantly. The basis of rebar narrowed by 74 from the end of May to June 27, and the basis of hot - rolled coils narrowed by 5. The previously recommended reverse arbitrage positions were all closed at a profit, and there were no obvious short - term trading opportunities [42]. 1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - In June, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar remained inverted, and the reverse arbitrage position widened from - 6 to - 10. Considering the upcoming seasonal off - season, the inversion may deepen [45]. 1.8 Inter - product Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on the futures market widened slightly from 115 to 126, and the spot spread widened from 30 to 110. It is expected that there is limited room for further widening, and there are no obvious trend - trading opportunities [48]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - In June, the iron ore price rebounded from a low level. The futures price rose by 13.5 to 715.5, while the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped by 28 to 707 yuan/ton [53]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month. The weekly average global shipment in June was 3.4566 billion tons, an increase of 247 million tons compared with May and 72 million tons compared with June last year. The weekly average shipment from Australia was 2.0517 billion tons (up 199 million tons from May and 8 million tons from June last year), and that from Brazil was 820 million tons (up 27 million tons from May and 19 million tons from June last year). The arrival of iron ore at ports also increased. The weekly average arrival in June was 2.6547 billion tons, an increase of 170 million tons compared with May and 143 million tons compared with June last year [56][59][62]. 2.3 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the blast furnace operation rate oscillated and increased in June. It is expected that the average daily hot metal production in July will remain at around 2.4 million tons, and the daily consumption is expected to increase accordingly. In terms of speculative demand, the monthly average daily iron ore trading volume at ports decreased slightly from 940,000 tons last month to about 920,000 tons [65][68]. 2.4 Inventory - As of June 27, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14.43356 billion tons, a decrease of 70 million tons compared with the previous month, 1.177 billion tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1.113 billion tons compared with the same period last year. The steel mill inventory decreased. As of June 30, the steel mill ore powder inventory was 8.847 billion tons, a decrease of 53 million tons compared with the previous month's average [71][74]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping prices from Australia and Brazil to Qingdao first rose and then fell in June. Geopolitical factors affected the downstream restocking rhythm, and the freight rates decreased significantly after the conflict eased [77]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore futures narrowed from 35.5 to 25.5, and there was no obvious trading value. The basis of the 09 contract narrowed significantly from 53 to 8. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01 [80][83].