电池： 国内锂电池市场价格总体稳定。目前正处于全年9-10月的旺季，备货需求旺盛，10月份预计电池产量仍将有5%以内的增长。今年受爆款车型交付情况较好，重 卡、商用车增速释放，再加上储能高需求的支撑，预计今年全球电池产量将达2150Gwh，大幅超出年初的预期。 新能源车： 上周乘用车50.8万，同比+10.30%，环比+10.72%；新能源车29.8万，同比+28.25%，环比+9.60%；周度新能源车渗透率58.66%，比同期+8.21个百分点；年 累计新能源车渗透率52.18%，比同期+7.62个百分点。 周度交付方面零跑1.29万台、小米1.08万台、问界1.02万台、小鹏0.92万台、理想0.86万台；奇瑞汽车香港上市，蔚来汽车宣布完成11.6亿美元融资 ；车企既要 拼订单，也要拼交付能力，本周共有30多款车上市。 储能： 储能电芯市场价格基本稳定，不过个别头部企业有上调电芯价格的计划。当前，储能技术正从"规模扩张"向"质量提升"转型，大容量电芯成为竞争焦点。头部几 家厂家的储能电芯587Ah电芯均开始量产交付，但大容量电芯在良率、一致性方面，包括产能不足仍存在一些不确定性。比亚迪于2025年9月18 ...

中升控股 20250926 摘要 中升控股售后维保及精品维保业务表现如何？ 中升控股售后维保及精品维保业务表现稳健，每年进店量约 800 万次，今年上 半年达 400 万次。单次进店消费平均 3,300-3,400 元，上半年单次进店毛利 约 1,580 元，保持高毛利率 47%左右。这部分业务未受新车业务下行影响， 其盈利能力强劲且客源充足。新能源车渗透率虽高，但存量占比仍低，对售后 维保影响有限。此外，公司主要布局中心城市，人流趋势有望推动总量增长。 今年上半年售后维保贡献 63 亿元毛利，占公司全部 42 亿元毛利的大部分。 对中升控股未来利润预期如何？ 受价格战影响，奔驰、雷克萨斯、丰田等传统品牌亏损加剧，但三季度 行业折扣率出现回收迹象，8 月国内乘用车平均降价幅度回升 0.1%，燃 油车折扣率下行，有望改善中升控股新车业务毛利。 中升控股积极布局华为赛力斯问界品牌，已开设 36 家门店，问界品牌 市占率达 8%，在全国中心城市市占率高达 18%，是全国平均水平的两 倍，预计随着门店爬坡结束，销量和盈利将持续提升。 售后维保及精品维保业务表现稳健，每年进店量约 800 万次，上半年达 400 万次， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and outlook of the Chinese automotive market in August and September, highlighting a steady growth trend despite tightening subsidy policies and market uncertainties [2][6]. Group 1: August Market Review - In August, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.018 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a month-on-month increase of 9.5% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in August totaled 1.115 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% and a month-on-month growth of 13.0%, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [2]. Group 2: September Market Outlook - The traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to bring stable growth, with an estimated retail market size of around 2.15 million units in September, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 6.5% and a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [3][6]. - The expected retail volume of NEVs in September is around 1.25 million units, with a penetration rate projected to reach 58.1%, setting a new historical high [3][6]. Group 3: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of September, daily retail sales averaged 43,500 units, down 10.3% year-on-year and down 3.8% month-on-month [4]. - By the second week, daily retail sales rebounded to 59,500 units, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% but a month-on-month increase of 11.9% [4]. - The third week is expected to see daily retail sales reach 68,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% and a month-on-month increase of 14.3% [4]. - The fourth week is projected to achieve daily sales of 105,900 units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month increase of 19.0% [4]. Group 4: Market Stability and Consumer Behavior - The initial stability in market discounts and a more regulated pricing system indicate a positive trend in the automotive consumption market, with retail sales of automotive products showing a recovery [6]. - The introduction of new models and the impact of local stimulus policies are expected to enhance market contributions, particularly in the NEV segment, which is anticipated to continue its rapid growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese passenger car market is experiencing a shift with a decrease in average prices, which is expected to stimulate growth in the mid-to-low-end segments and enhance overall market penetration [1][2][5]. Market Performance - In August, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and a month-on-month increase of 8.2%. Cumulatively, 14.74 million units have been sold this year, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [1]. - The average price of passenger cars in August was 169,000 yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, while the average price for the first eight months of 2025 is projected to be 170,000 yuan, down from 171,000 yuan in 2024 [1][3]. Price Trends - The average price of conventional fuel vehicles has risen from 150,000 yuan in 2019 to 183,000 yuan in 2023, but is expected to decline to 170,000 yuan by August 2025 due to a faster shrinkage in high-end fuel vehicle sales [1][3]. - The average price of new energy vehicles has also decreased significantly, from 184,000 yuan in 2023 to 159,000 yuan in August 2025, indicating a vibrant consumer interest in this segment [1][3]. Market Structure - The decline in average prices is attributed to an increase in the sales of entry-level pure electric vehicles, while the share of higher-priced hybrid and range-extended vehicles has decreased [4][10]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 48% in 2024 and 55.2% by August 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory for this segment [9]. Consumer Behavior - The decrease in average prices is seen as beneficial for market growth, particularly in promoting the adoption of passenger vehicles among lower-income consumers, as China's car ownership per thousand people remains relatively low [2][5]. - The mid-to-low-end market is expected to recover significantly in 2024 due to policies encouraging vehicle scrappage and trade-ins, which will further drive down average prices [2][5]. Brand Performance - The average price of luxury vehicles in the first eight months of 2025 is 361,000 yuan, slightly down from 364,000 yuan in 2024, while the average price for joint venture brands is 175,000 yuan, up by 0.2% from the previous year [12]. - Domestic brands are seeing a significant push in the new energy segment, with pure electric and narrow hybrid models performing well, while traditional fuel vehicles are facing downward pressure [12].

Group 1: SF Express (顺丰同城) - The company has shown significantly better-than-expected revenue growth in the first half of the year, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 by 14%/12%/12%, reaching 22 billion to 30.4 billion HKD, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%/20%/15% [1] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 26%/23%/27%, resulting in projected profits of 340 million to 760 million HKD, with Non-IFRS net profit margins of 1.5%/2%/2.6% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the rationalization of delivery subsidies and the continued deepening of business synergies with SF Express, alongside the cost reduction from the scaling of autonomous vehicle deliveries [2] Group 2: Automotive Industry - In August, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 55.2%, marking a new high for the year, with retail sales of passenger cars at 1.995 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3] - Domestic brands sold 1.32 million vehicles, with a retail market share increase of 2.3 percentage points to 65.7%, while mainstream joint venture brands saw a retail sales decline of 2% [3] - The export of new energy passenger vehicles maintained strong growth, with a total of 204,000 units exported in August, accounting for 40.9% of total passenger vehicle exports, a year-on-year increase of 16.6 percentage points [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The UK government has reintroduced purchase subsidy policies for electric vehicles, which is expected to increase the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles to 26% [2][20] - Domestic plug-in hybrid vehicle sales have experienced a negative growth for the first time, while commercial vehicles and exports show strong performance [3][40] - The report highlights significant growth in electric vehicle sales in Europe and other regions, with a notable increase in the US market [3][78] Monthly Focus - The UK has launched multiple subsidy policies for electric vehicles, including a purchase subsidy that will provide £3,750 or £1,500 for eligible vehicles starting from July 2025, with a total budget of £650 million [10][14] - The reintroduction of subsidies is driven by the UK's stringent regulations under the "Zero Emission Vehicle Directive," which mandates that 80% of new car sales must be zero-emission vehicles by 2030 [15][20] - The expected impact of the subsidy policy is an increase in the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles from 24% to 26%, benefiting manufacturers with production capabilities in Europe and the UK [2][21] Key Data Tracking - In July, domestic plug-in hybrid vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year-on-year, marking the first decline since the surge of new energy vehicles [3][35] - Commercial vehicle sales continue to grow at a high rate, with penetration rates exceeding 20% for four consecutive months [40] - Exports of new energy vehicles have maintained high growth since 2025, particularly driven by significant increases in exports from BYD and Chery [47][55] Industry and Company Changes - Major state-owned enterprises in China, such as Changan and FAW Group, have set targets for new energy vehicle sales to exceed 60% by 2030 [4] - New models featuring plug-in hybrid and range-extended technologies have been launched by companies like Zeekr and IM Motors [4] - Collaborations between Huawei and various brands are expected to yield new models, with several set to launch in the near future [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Stronger Operation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate strongly, with a trend strength of 1 on a scale from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs **A. Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate** - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 80,560, the volume was 16,374, and the open interest was 148,084. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 81,000, the volume was 38,071, and the open interest was 317,676 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 19,389 hands [3] - **Basis**: The spot - 2509 basis was -6,060, and the spot - 2511 basis was -6,500 [3] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 840, battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 [3] - **Downstream Consumption**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are also provided [3] **B. Macro and Industry News** - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,567 yuan/ton, up 2,606 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 74,500 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,600 - 73,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton [4] - **Company News**: CATL suspended mining operations at its Yichun project after the mining license expired on August 9 and is applying for a renewal, with little impact on its overall operations [5] - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In July, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 54.0%, up 2.7 percentage points year - on - year. New forces' share was 21.4%, up 2 percentage points year - on - year, while Tesla's share was 4.1%, down 1.1 percentage points year - on - year [5]

Group 1: Company Insights - Semiconductor company, 中芯国际, reported a 2Q25 revenue decline of 1.7% with a gross margin of 20.4%, exceeding expectations due to growth in 8-inch products [1][2] - Management guidance for 3Q25 indicates a revenue recovery with a projected growth of 5%-7% and a gross margin forecast of 18%-20% [1][2] - The company is expected to add 1.1 million pieces of 12-inch monthly capacity in 3Q25, with an average selling price (ASP) anticipated to be higher than 2Q25 but slightly lower than 1Q25 [2] Group 2: Automotive Industry Insights - In July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 54%, marking a year-to-date high, with retail sales of new energy vehicles at 987,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12% [3][4] - The overall retail sales of passenger cars in July were 1.826 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 12.4% [3] - The automotive market is expected to see gradual recovery in retail sales due to the upcoming launch of several new models, including 理想 i6 and 小鹏 P7 [7] Group 3: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate market experienced a seasonal decline in supply and demand, with total sales in July dropping 38.1% month-on-month to 229.4 billion yuan [9] - The average selling price and sales area decreased by 21.4% and 21.8% respectively in July, reflecting seasonal factors [9] - Future policies are expected to support the market, focusing on urban village renovations and financial support [9]

Core Insights - The retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.834 million units in July, showing a year-on-year growth of 6% but a month-on-month decline of 12% [1] - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 12.736 million units, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [1] - The average price of passenger cars in July 2025 was 169,000 yuan, down 800 yuan from the same period last year, indicating a trend of price reduction in the market [1][3] Price Trends - The average price of conventional fuel vehicles has increased from 150,000 yuan in 2019 to 183,000 yuan in 2024, but is expected to decline to 181,000 yuan in the first seven months of 2025 [1][3] - The average price of new energy vehicles has decreased from 184,000 yuan in 2023 to 161,000 yuan in 2025, with July's average at 162,000 yuan [1][3] - The luxury car average price for the first seven months of 2025 is 362,000 yuan, a slight decrease from 2024, while the average for joint venture brands is 175,000 yuan, showing a slight increase [2][14] Market Dynamics - The decline in average prices is attributed to increased sales in the mid-to-low-end market, driven by policies promoting vehicle scrappage and trade-in subsidies [2][5] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is increasing, with microcars showing a 100% penetration rate in July, and A0-class small cars at 72.9% [10] - The market share of traditional fuel vehicles remains strong in the 15-20 million yuan range, while the high-end market is experiencing a decline [12][14] Brand Performance - The average price for new force brands decreased by 3.1 million yuan in the first seven months of 2025, indicating volatility in this segment [14] - The average price for independent brands is 122,000 yuan, down 500 yuan year-on-year, reflecting competitive pressure in the market [14] - The performance of high-end hybrid vehicles is weaker compared to the growth of pure electric vehicles, which are gradually gaining market share [14]

Core Insights - In July, China's retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the cumulative retail sales from January to July totaled 12.728 million units, up 10.1% year-on-year [2] - The growth rate in July was lower compared to the 15% increase seen from March to June, attributed to a gap in subsidy funding and rising consumer costs [2] - The market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) showed a retail sales figure of 987,000 units in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.0% [4] Market Performance - The overall passenger car market is experiencing strong demand despite the traditional summer slowdown, with July's sales indicating resilience [2] - The price war in the car market has eased, with only 17 models seeing price reductions in July, compared to 23 in the same month last year [3] - The promotional intensity for NEVs remained high at 10.2%, while traditional fuel vehicles maintained a promotional level of 23.4% [3] New Energy Vehicles - NEVs accounted for a retail penetration rate of 54.0% in July, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic brands leading at 74.9% [4] - Pure electric vehicles (EVs) saw a significant year-on-year growth of 24.5%, reclaiming market dominance over plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles [4] - The market share of domestic brand NEVs remained stable at 70%, while mainstream joint venture brands saw a decline to 3.6% [4] Brand Performance - Domestic brands continued to grow, with July retail sales reaching 1.21 million units, a 14% increase year-on-year, and a market share of 65.9% [5] - Joint venture brands experienced slight growth, with retail sales of 450,000 units in July, but market shares generally declined [5] - Luxury brands faced challenges, with July retail sales dropping to 170,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 20% [6] Export Trends - In July, total passenger car exports reached 475,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with NEVs making up 44.7% of the total exports [6] - Domestic brand exports reached 415,000 units, reflecting a 34% year-on-year growth [6] Future Outlook - The upcoming launch of new models in August is expected to enhance market supply and stimulate retail sales, particularly for fuel vehicles [6]