Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The UK government has reintroduced purchase subsidy policies for electric vehicles, which is expected to increase the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles to 26% [2][20] - Domestic plug-in hybrid vehicle sales have experienced a negative growth for the first time, while commercial vehicles and exports show strong performance [3][40] - The report highlights significant growth in electric vehicle sales in Europe and other regions, with a notable increase in the US market [3][78] Monthly Focus - The UK has launched multiple subsidy policies for electric vehicles, including a purchase subsidy that will provide £3,750 or £1,500 for eligible vehicles starting from July 2025, with a total budget of £650 million [10][14] - The reintroduction of subsidies is driven by the UK's stringent regulations under the "Zero Emission Vehicle Directive," which mandates that 80% of new car sales must be zero-emission vehicles by 2030 [15][20] - The expected impact of the subsidy policy is an increase in the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles from 24% to 26%, benefiting manufacturers with production capabilities in Europe and the UK [2][21] Key Data Tracking - In July, domestic plug-in hybrid vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year-on-year, marking the first decline since the surge of new energy vehicles [3][35] - Commercial vehicle sales continue to grow at a high rate, with penetration rates exceeding 20% for four consecutive months [40] - Exports of new energy vehicles have maintained high growth since 2025, particularly driven by significant increases in exports from BYD and Chery [47][55] Industry and Company Changes - Major state-owned enterprises in China, such as Changan and FAW Group, have set targets for new energy vehicle sales to exceed 60% by 2030 [4] - New models featuring plug-in hybrid and range-extended technologies have been launched by companies like Zeekr and IM Motors [4] - Collaborations between Huawei and various brands are expected to yield new models, with several set to launch in the near future [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Stronger Operation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate strongly, with a trend strength of 1 on a scale from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs **A. Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate** - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 80,560, the volume was 16,374, and the open interest was 148,084. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 81,000, the volume was 38,071, and the open interest was 317,676 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 19,389 hands [3] - **Basis**: The spot - 2509 basis was -6,060, and the spot - 2511 basis was -6,500 [3] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 840, battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 [3] - **Downstream Consumption**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are also provided [3] **B. Macro and Industry News** - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,567 yuan/ton, up 2,606 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 74,500 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,600 - 73,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton [4] - **Company News**: CATL suspended mining operations at its Yichun project after the mining license expired on August 9 and is applying for a renewal, with little impact on its overall operations [5] - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In July, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 54.0%, up 2.7 percentage points year - on - year. New forces' share was 21.4%, up 2 percentage points year - on - year, while Tesla's share was 4.1%, down 1.1 percentage points year - on - year [5]

Group 1: Company Insights - Semiconductor company, 中芯国际, reported a 2Q25 revenue decline of 1.7% with a gross margin of 20.4%, exceeding expectations due to growth in 8-inch products [1][2] - Management guidance for 3Q25 indicates a revenue recovery with a projected growth of 5%-7% and a gross margin forecast of 18%-20% [1][2] - The company is expected to add 1.1 million pieces of 12-inch monthly capacity in 3Q25, with an average selling price (ASP) anticipated to be higher than 2Q25 but slightly lower than 1Q25 [2] Group 2: Automotive Industry Insights - In July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 54%, marking a year-to-date high, with retail sales of new energy vehicles at 987,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12% [3][4] - The overall retail sales of passenger cars in July were 1.826 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 12.4% [3] - The automotive market is expected to see gradual recovery in retail sales due to the upcoming launch of several new models, including 理想 i6 and 小鹏 P7 [7] Group 3: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate market experienced a seasonal decline in supply and demand, with total sales in July dropping 38.1% month-on-month to 229.4 billion yuan [9] - The average selling price and sales area decreased by 21.4% and 21.8% respectively in July, reflecting seasonal factors [9] - Future policies are expected to support the market, focusing on urban village renovations and financial support [9]

Core Insights - The retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.834 million units in July, showing a year-on-year growth of 6% but a month-on-month decline of 12% [1] - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 12.736 million units, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [1] - The average price of passenger cars in July 2025 was 169,000 yuan, down 800 yuan from the same period last year, indicating a trend of price reduction in the market [1][3] Price Trends - The average price of conventional fuel vehicles has increased from 150,000 yuan in 2019 to 183,000 yuan in 2024, but is expected to decline to 181,000 yuan in the first seven months of 2025 [1][3] - The average price of new energy vehicles has decreased from 184,000 yuan in 2023 to 161,000 yuan in 2025, with July's average at 162,000 yuan [1][3] - The luxury car average price for the first seven months of 2025 is 362,000 yuan, a slight decrease from 2024, while the average for joint venture brands is 175,000 yuan, showing a slight increase [2][14] Market Dynamics - The decline in average prices is attributed to increased sales in the mid-to-low-end market, driven by policies promoting vehicle scrappage and trade-in subsidies [2][5] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is increasing, with microcars showing a 100% penetration rate in July, and A0-class small cars at 72.9% [10] - The market share of traditional fuel vehicles remains strong in the 15-20 million yuan range, while the high-end market is experiencing a decline [12][14] Brand Performance - The average price for new force brands decreased by 3.1 million yuan in the first seven months of 2025, indicating volatility in this segment [14] - The average price for independent brands is 122,000 yuan, down 500 yuan year-on-year, reflecting competitive pressure in the market [14] - The performance of high-end hybrid vehicles is weaker compared to the growth of pure electric vehicles, which are gradually gaining market share [14]

Core Insights - In July, China's retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the cumulative retail sales from January to July totaled 12.728 million units, up 10.1% year-on-year [2] - The growth rate in July was lower compared to the 15% increase seen from March to June, attributed to a gap in subsidy funding and rising consumer costs [2] - The market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) showed a retail sales figure of 987,000 units in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.0% [4] Market Performance - The overall passenger car market is experiencing strong demand despite the traditional summer slowdown, with July's sales indicating resilience [2] - The price war in the car market has eased, with only 17 models seeing price reductions in July, compared to 23 in the same month last year [3] - The promotional intensity for NEVs remained high at 10.2%, while traditional fuel vehicles maintained a promotional level of 23.4% [3] New Energy Vehicles - NEVs accounted for a retail penetration rate of 54.0% in July, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic brands leading at 74.9% [4] - Pure electric vehicles (EVs) saw a significant year-on-year growth of 24.5%, reclaiming market dominance over plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles [4] - The market share of domestic brand NEVs remained stable at 70%, while mainstream joint venture brands saw a decline to 3.6% [4] Brand Performance - Domestic brands continued to grow, with July retail sales reaching 1.21 million units, a 14% increase year-on-year, and a market share of 65.9% [5] - Joint venture brands experienced slight growth, with retail sales of 450,000 units in July, but market shares generally declined [5] - Luxury brands faced challenges, with July retail sales dropping to 170,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 20% [6] Export Trends - In July, total passenger car exports reached 475,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with NEVs making up 44.7% of the total exports [6] - Domestic brand exports reached 415,000 units, reflecting a 34% year-on-year growth [6] Future Outlook - The upcoming launch of new models in August is expected to enhance market supply and stimulate retail sales, particularly for fuel vehicles [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 49.8% in June, marking an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to June 2024 [1] - Domestic brand NEVs achieved a penetration rate of 66.7% in June [1] - The penetration rate of NEVs in the luxury vehicle segment was 33% [1] - Mainstream joint venture brands had a significantly lower NEV penetration rate of only 6.6% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market in the first half of 2025 showed lower volatility compared to last year. Although short - term factors may disrupt the rhythm, the market still develops around its fundamentals. The overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, with an oversupply situation. Before significant production cuts in the mining and lithium salt plants, the lithium carbonate market may continue the process of oscillating and bottom - hunting. The price is expected to range between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025. For industrial customers and investment institutions, they can seize the staged downward market [6][23][24]. - On the supply side, there are disturbances in the mining end, but the over - capacity of lithium salt is still large. If the lithium price does not rebound significantly and remains below 70,000 yuan/ton for a long time in the second half of 2025, some high - cost mines and recycling enterprises are expected to gradually reduce production or exit, and new projects may be postponed. The total supply is expected to be 1.65 million tons of LCE, still in an oversupply pattern [8][24]. - On the demand side, new energy vehicles and energy storage are still the two main drivers of consumption growth. In 2024, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 12.888 million and 12.866 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 34.4% and 35.5%. In 2025, the domestic new energy vehicle production and sales data still maintained a high growth rate. It is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 16.5 million in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 28%, and global sales will reach about 23 million, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In the energy storage sector, the growth rate is expected to remain high, with an annual year - on - year growth rate of about 40%. Overall, the consumption growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2025 is expected to be about 22% [9][10]. - In terms of balance, the oversupply situation will continue in the second half of 2025, and the inventory pressure will continue to increase. It is expected that the annual oversupply will be 210,000 tons of LCE [11][12]. - Regarding inventory, smelters contribute the main inventory increase, and attention should be paid to the delivery inventory. It is expected that the lithium salt inventory will continue to accumulate in the second half of the year [13]. - Conclusion: The lithium carbonate price may continue to bottom - hunt. Although the supply - demand situation shows a double - increase pattern in 2025, the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Due to the price drop, the supply growth rate may slow down, and the degree of oversupply will decrease. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025 [14]. Section Summaries Strategy Summary - In the first quarter of 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices were relatively stable. The 2505 contract rebounded from 77,800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 81,680 yuan/ton, a 4.99% increase, and then fell to 74,160 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, the demand growth rate declined, and the industry returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm. The 2507 contract fell from 74,500 yuan/ton in early April to the annual low of 58,460 yuan/ton, a 21.53% decrease. Later, with the extension of the US tariff exemption and the call to eliminate backward production capacity, the price rebounded to around 64,000 yuan/ton, a nearly 10% increase [5]. Price Review - In the first half of 2025, the lithium carbonate futures price first rose and then fell. In the first quarter, it was relatively stable. In the second quarter, it was affected by the Sino - US tariff war and demand slowdown, and the price dropped significantly. In June, with the relaxation of the tariff war and the support of energy storage exports, the price rebounded [5][22]. Market Outlook - In the second half of 2025, the overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, with an oversupply situation. The price is expected to range between 45,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. If the lithium price does not rebound significantly, some high - cost mines and recycling enterprises may reduce production or exit, and new projects may be postponed [23][24]. Supply - side Situation - From January to June 2025, China's domestic lithium carbonate production was about 429,600 tons, a 43.91% year - on - year increase, and the annual production is expected to be about 900,000 tons, a 33% increase. Lithium hydroxide production was about 142,200 tons, a 18.56% year - on - year decrease. The overall production is expected to continue to increase. The over - capacity of lithium salt smelting is large, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production or stop production [42]. Lithium Mine Production Cuts, Start - ups, and Cost Tracking - **Resource - end Increment**: In 2025, the total supply of the resource end is expected to be 1.57 million tons of LCE. Africa, domestic mines, and salt lakes, as well as South American salt lakes and Australian mines, will contribute to the increment [47]. - **Production Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate**: The cost of using salt lakes for production is relatively low, at 30,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. Self - owned mine enterprises have a cash cost of 40,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing ore is relatively high, and most of the time this year, they are in a loss situation. It is expected that the global lithium mine oversupply situation will be difficult to change, and the lithium mine price may further decline [50][51]. Import - Export - From January to May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 2.92 million tons, a 39.97% year - on - year increase. Lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a 15.3% increase, and the annual import is expected to reach 250,000 tons. Exports were 2,100 tons, and the annual export is expected to be 4,000 tons. Lithium hydroxide exports were 21,600 tons, a 59.9% year - on - year decrease, and imports were 6,470 tons, with a significant year - on - year increase [61][63]. Consumption - side - **Lithium Consumption**: In 2025, lithium consumption is mainly driven by new energy vehicles and energy storage. From January to May, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, while the growth of ternary materials was limited. In the battery end, the sales and exports of power and other batteries increased significantly. In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and it is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 16.5 million in 2025. In the energy storage sector, the growth rate is expected to remain high [72][74][77]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to have an annual oversupply of 60,000 tons, and the global lithium resource is expected to have an annual oversupply of 220,000 tons of LCE [107]. Inventory - As of the end of June, the total lithium carbonate inventory reached 136,800 tons, with smelters contributing the main increase. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the second half of the year [114].

Core Viewpoint - The delivery ceremony of the Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition, China's first airborne car delivery, took place on a private jet, highlighting the luxury and innovative experience of the vehicle [1][3]. Group 1: Product Features - The official starting price of the Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition is 899,000 yuan, featuring luxurious elements such as gold accents and high-quality materials, appealing to high-end consumers [1]. - The vehicle is designed with safety and comfort in mind, including a unique one-piece cast C-ring seat that secures rear seats to the aluminum body, ensuring passenger safety [5]. - It boasts the world's first LC privacy dimming glass, which can switch from bright to dark in one second, with a UV blocking rate of 99.9% and a shading rate of 99.5% [5]. - The seats are made from ultra-soft aniline leather, featuring 11 layers and 12 ergonomic support zones, providing 20 massage points and a graphene thermal SPA experience [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Consumer Insights - The Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition is favored by high-end users, with a significant portion of buyers being executives and entrepreneurs, predominantly male [1][3]. - The vehicle's performance is notable, being the fastest accelerating MPV globally, achieving 0-100 km/h in just 3.9 seconds, and equipped with a battery that allows for over 500 km of range in just 11.5 minutes of charging [5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has surpassed 50%, with domestic brands like Zeekr capturing a significant share of the 600,000 yuan market segment, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards local luxury vehicles [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the automotive industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [5]. Core Insights - In May, the retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 13.3% year-on-year, driven by consumer promotion policies, increased subsidies from manufacturers, and supportive financial policies. The total retail sales reached 1.932 million units in May, with a year-to-date growth of 9.1% [5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rose to 52.9% in May, with NEV retail sales reaching 1.021 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [5]. - The export structure is improving, with the EU and Southeast Asia emerging as new high-growth markets. In May, total passenger vehicle exports reached 448,000 units, with NEV exports performing better than traditional fuel vehicles [5]. Summary by Sections Valuation Overview - BYD Co., Ltd. (1211 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 503.25, current price 396.60, FY25E EPS of 23.284, and a PE ratio of 15.6 [3]. - Great Wall Motors (2333 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 17.36, current price 12.58, FY25E EPS of 1.692, and a PE ratio of 6.8 [3]. - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 22.50, current price 17.56, FY25E EPS of 1.182, and a PE ratio of 13.6 [3]. - Xpeng Motors (9868 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 134.69, current price 78.55, FY25E EPS of -0.324, and NA for PE ratio [3]. - NIO Inc. (9866 HK) rated "Buy" with a target price of 48.96, current price 27.90, FY25E EPS of -7.459, and NA for PE ratio [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that the automotive market is expected to maintain stable growth in June, following a strong performance in May. The report highlights the potential for a price war among passenger vehicles, particularly after BYD initiated a new round of promotions [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic brands, which accounted for 65.2% of the retail market share in May, with a year-on-year increase of 8 percentage points [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on BYD for its intelligent driving and export potential, Xpeng Motors for the launch of new models, and Geely Automobile for internal resource integration following the privatization of its Zeekr brand [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the second-hand car market in China is experiencing a slight decline in transaction volume and value in April 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [1] - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of second-hand cars reached 6.31 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, while the transaction value was 413.4 billion yuan, showing a decline of 2.7% [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the second-hand car market continues to rise, reaching 9.1% in April 2025 [1]