周内碳酸锂现货价格稳步上行、期货区间震荡；供应方面，锂辉石端和盐湖端均有新产线投产，市场供 应稳步增加，锂盐厂开工率维持高位。需求方面，主力下游表现依然强劲，动力电池快速增长、储能市 场供需两旺，下游料厂开工率持续走高对现货成交形成支撑。据SMM，中国碳酸锂周度产量环比上升 2.43%、周度库存量环比下降1.73%库存连续去化已超过两个月，反映出本轮旺季下供需格局明显改 善、产业正反馈情况明显。 需求侧，10月1-19日，全国新能源乘用车零售63.2万辆，同比增长5%，环比增长2%，新能源零售渗透 率56.1%，增速与渗透率均较前一周改善，延续旺季特征。供给侧，海内外低成本产能仍在释放，产量 压力仍不容忽视。该行认为，需求端强势为锂价提供充分支撑，但海内外供应项目在下半年大量集中投 放与爬产，锂价在11月末后或面临一定压力。根据SMM数据，上周电池级碳酸锂价格为7.45-7.633万元/ 吨，均价较前周上升2.79%。电池级氢氧化锂(粗颗粒)价格为7.21-7.53万元/吨，均价较前周上升0.82%。 市场成交跟进不足，钴盐价格上行放缓。 国泰海通发布研报称，维持锂钴行业增持评级。锂价当前偏强难跌，11月中之 ...

市场成交跟进不足，钴盐价格上行放缓。 钴中间品方面，随着需求旺季到来，矿商逐步释放在刚果（金）以外的部分钴中间品库存，但当前供给水平仍无法 充分满足国内市场需求，主流矿山和贸易商在乐观预期下仍捂货惜售。电钴方面，国内需求增速有限，下游实际消化不多，进入四季度需求转弱；冶炼企业减 产制造的缺口相对较小，库存消化较慢，叠加一些民间库存涌入，整体库存不减，电钴价格拉涨后回落。钴盐方面，下游对现行价格接受度较低，以消化库 存、刚需补库为主，价格上涨后维稳运行。根据SMM数据，上周电解钴价格为40.00-41.50万元/吨，均价较前周上升6.96%。 周期研判：维持锂钴行业增持评级。 锂板块：需求延续旺季特征，去库推动价格上涨。1）无锡盘2511合约周度涨1.32%至7.65万元/吨；广期所2511合约周度 涨4.25%至7.89万元/吨；2）锂精矿：上海有色网锂精矿价格为881美元/吨，环比上升35美元/吨。海外矿端挺价情绪延续，下游询盘、采买意愿浓厚，矿价水 涨船高。钴板块：电钴下游需求偏弱，库存压力下价格先涨后跌；钴盐则处于供需博弈状态。钴业公司多向电新下游延伸，构成钴-镍-前驱体-三元的一体化成 本优势，增强竞 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the lithium and cobalt sectors, with recent updates indicating a rebound in lithium carbonate prices due to optimistic market expectations for production resumption in September 2023. However, the transition from peak to off-peak season and the resumption of production may put pressure on prices. The current strong demand for energy storage is expected to keep lithium carbonate prices stable in the short term [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Lithium Market Dynamics**: - The anticipated resumption of a major lithium mine in Jiangxi is expected to positively influence market expectations, leading to a significant rebound in lithium carbonate prices to around 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton. However, as the market transitions to the off-peak season, prices may face downward pressure [3]. - The development of solid-state battery technology is highlighted, with estimates showing that 3GWh of solid-state batteries could require 2.5 to 3 times more lithium compared to traditional batteries. This could lead to a substantial increase in demand for lithium if solid-state technology is adopted more widely [3]. - **Cobalt Supply and Demand**: - China's cobalt raw material imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have seen a significant decline, with July imports down over 70% year-on-year. Domestic cobalt inventory is tight, estimated at 42,000 to 43,000 tons, while annual demand is around 50,000 tons, indicating a supply shortage [4]. - The upcoming expiration of the DRC's export ban is a point of concern. Even if exports are allowed, the market is expected to remain tight, with limited quota releases to ensure cobalt prices recover [4][5]. - **Future Cobalt Price Trends**: - The transportation and supply recovery timeline from the DRC to domestic production is approximately 3 to 4 months, meaning that any potential export resumption will have a limited immediate impact on domestic supply. Downstream replenishment is expected to continue until the end of the year or early next year [5]. - The demand for cobalt in sectors like consumer electronics and new energy vehicles is relatively price-insensitive, with current prices around 270,000 yuan per ton being acceptable. This suggests that there is significant upward price potential for cobalt [5]. Additional Important Insights - Companies to watch include those with nickel-cobalt production capacity in Indonesia, such as Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, and Greeenmei, as well as those with resources and production capacity in the DRC, like Luoyang Molybdenum, Pengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt, which are expected to benefit from high quotas and prices [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][4] Core Views - The lithium sector is experiencing a gradual decline in market activity, with stable lithium salt prices. The Wuxi 2505 contract increased by 1.37% to 74,100 CNY/ton, while the Guangxi 2505 contract rose by 1.04% to 74,000 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices are at 821 USD/ton, down by 10 USD/ton [4][11] - The cobalt sector is characterized by cautious purchasing from buyers and sellers holding back inventory. Cobalt companies are extending their operations towards the electric new energy downstream, creating a cost advantage through integration [4][11] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry. The lithium market is seeing reduced trading activity, with stable lithium salt prices. The Wuxi 2505 contract increased by 1.37% to 74,100 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2505 contract rose by 1.04% to 74,000 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices are at 821 USD/ton, down by 10 USD/ton. Recommended stocks include Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others [4][11] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the Democratic Republic of Congo potentially extending its cobalt export ban, which has already led to a price increase of over 50%. Additionally, Tianqi Lithium has successfully developed a new battery-grade lithium sulfide micro-powder product [15][4] 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports, and Metal Prices - In February, domestic production of key new energy metal materials saw a month-on-month decline. The report highlights that the carbon lithium weekly production decreased by 3.50%, while inventory increased by 1.20% [34][45]