锂、钴板块近期焦点更新 20250911 摘要 930 后市场对开工预期乐观，碳酸锂价格大幅反弹，但旺季转淡及产能 复产或将使其承压。当前金九银十，储能需求强劲，短期内碳酸锂价格 预计维持偏强震荡。 固态电池技术中，氧化物和硫化物路线可能增加锂资源用量，3GWh 固 态电池的碳酸锂当量用量较传统电池提升 2.5-3 倍。需密切关注固态电 池发展，其超预期使用可能大幅增长需求。 中国 7 月钴原料进口量同比大幅下滑超 70%，国内钴原料库存紧张，约 为 4.2-4.3 万吨，年内需求约 5 万吨。四钴和硫酸钴需求强劲，市场库 存极少，年内供给紧张格局不变。 刚果金出口禁令到期问题引关注，即使放开出口，预计仍维持行业紧平 衡，配额释放有限，以确保钴价回升。专家交流显示，行业公司倾向于 维持紧平衡状态。 钴从刚果金运输至国内并生产成钴盐需 3-4 个月，即使 922 后放开出口， 对年内国内供给影响有限，下游补库将延续至年底甚至明年初。 下游对钴价不敏感，目前 27 万元/吨左右的价格在消费电子、新能源汽 车等领域可接受，小幅提升不会导致负反馈，钴价仍有明显上行空间。 钴板块目前供需情况如何？ 建议关注在印尼有镍钴 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][4] Core Views - The lithium sector is experiencing a gradual decline in market activity, with stable lithium salt prices. The Wuxi 2505 contract increased by 1.37% to 74,100 CNY/ton, while the Guangxi 2505 contract rose by 1.04% to 74,000 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices are at 821 USD/ton, down by 10 USD/ton [4][11] - The cobalt sector is characterized by cautious purchasing from buyers and sellers holding back inventory. Cobalt companies are extending their operations towards the electric new energy downstream, creating a cost advantage through integration [4][11] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry. The lithium market is seeing reduced trading activity, with stable lithium salt prices. The Wuxi 2505 contract increased by 1.37% to 74,100 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2505 contract rose by 1.04% to 74,000 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices are at 821 USD/ton, down by 10 USD/ton. Recommended stocks include Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others [4][11] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the Democratic Republic of Congo potentially extending its cobalt export ban, which has already led to a price increase of over 50%. Additionally, Tianqi Lithium has successfully developed a new battery-grade lithium sulfide micro-powder product [15][4] 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports, and Metal Prices - In February, domestic production of key new energy metal materials saw a month-on-month decline. The report highlights that the carbon lithium weekly production decreased by 3.50%, while inventory increased by 1.20% [34][45]