证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 13 日 DoD 入股 MP 以加速美国稀土磁体独立，但 短期全球稀土永磁体生产仍高度集中于中国 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，国内 NPI 冶炼厂成本倒挂依 然严重 截止到 7 月 11 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 14955 美元/ 吨，较 7 月 4 日下跌 1.09%，LME 镍总库存为 206178 吨，较 7 月 4 日增加 1.83%；沪镍报收 12.14 万元/吨，较 7 月 4 日下 跌 0.83%，沪镍库存为 25,047.00 吨，较 7 月 4 日增加 0.50%；截止到 7 月 11 日，硫酸镍报收 27,900.00 元/吨，较 7 月 4 日价格下跌 2.11%。根据 SMM，从供给端来看，菲律宾 主产区矿区降雨影响较小。进入 7 月，预计整体三季度发运量 都将维持较高水平，矿到港量将继续增加，供应充足。截止到 7 月 11 日，中国镍矿港口库存增加至 720 万湿吨。前期发运 船只陆续到港，库存增加。受于超长雨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been extended for an additional three months, now lasting a total of seven months, in response to an oversupply in the global cobalt market [1][7]. Industry Impact - The extension of the cobalt export ban has led to a rise in the energy metals sector, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) seeing a stock price increase of 15.42%, and other firms such as Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) also experiencing significant gains [1]. - Cobalt prices have increased, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt reported at 244,000 yuan/ton, up by 8,500 yuan from the previous working day [1]. Company Responses - Major Chinese cobalt producers, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have indicated that their operations in the DRC are not significantly impacted by the export ban extension. Luoyang Molybdenum reported a cobalt production of 114,200 tons last year, a 106% increase year-on-year, while Huayou Cobalt noted that its cobalt capacity is primarily based in Indonesia, minimizing the impact of the DRC ban [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that domestic cobalt refining companies may face pressure due to increased uncertainty in cobalt raw material supply, although they currently have sufficient inventory to continue production [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 76% of the world's cobalt production last year [5]. - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had already dropped nearly 70% from their peak in Q1 2022, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [6]. - The ban's extension is expected to affect 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC this year, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage by 2025, which could drive prices up [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts have mixed views on whether the DRC's export ban will effectively alter the global cobalt supply-demand balance. Some predict short-term price increases driven by market sentiment, while others caution that without sufficient demand, the oversupply may persist [8][9]. - The DRC's strategy may include measures to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market, although the implications of such strategies on the overall market dynamics remain uncertain [9].

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源： 雪球网，作者Hugo777 一、事件驱动：出口禁令延期为何引爆钴板块？ 2025 年 6 月， 刚果（金）政府拟延长钴出口禁令 2 个月 （原禁令自 2025 年 2 月 24 日起暂停出口 4 个月）， 消息推动华友钴业、寒锐钴业等标的单日涨幅超 7%。核心逻辑在于： 供给冲击测算：刚果（金）2024 年钴产量 22 万吨（占全球 75.9%），月均出口 1.8 万吨，若禁令延长至 6 个 月，累计影响出口量达 10.8 万吨，相当于中国 2024 年钴需求量的 84%（12.8 万吨）。 价格历史映射：2024 年首次禁令期间，钴价从 16 万元 / 吨飙升至 23 万元 / 吨，涨幅 43.7%，此次延期引发市 场对短期价格反弹的预期。 | 指标 | 2024 年实际 | 2025 年禁令延长 6 个月预测 | | --- | --- | --- | | 刚果(金) 钻出口量 | 22 万吨 | 10.8 万吨(减少 51%) | | 中国钻元素供给量 | 16.9 万吨 | 10.4 万吨(同比 - ...

Group 1 - Jinchuan Nickel Cobalt has completed its IPO counseling with CITIC Securities and CICC as advisors, but has not disclosed financial data or the total fundraising amount yet [2] - The company, established in 2013, is the largest producer in China's nickel-cobalt industry, with a post-investment valuation close to 70 billion yuan after a recent capital increase [5] - In 2024, Jinchuan Nickel Cobalt reported revenues of 37.479 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.849 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year decline in both revenue and profit [5][6] Group 2 - The revenue from nickel products for Jinchuan Group showed a decline from 32.673 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.456 billion yuan in Q1 2025, while cobalt product revenues also decreased significantly [6] - The overall nickel market is facing oversupply and slowing demand growth, leading to fluctuating nickel prices, although there is potential for recovery due to emerging industries [7] - The cobalt market is experiencing severe supply-demand imbalances, with significant price drops, and non-listed companies face greater performance pressures without capital market support [8]

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】 日本超长债：为何利率明显上行 日本超长债：为何利率明显上行？ 近期日本超长债利率明显上升，收益率曲线也明显变陡。背后或主要存 在以下几方面的原因：首先，在关税影响下日本财政扩张倾向增加了市场对债券供给冲击的担忧。其次， 2025 年以来日本国内机构对超长债需求较为疲弱。此外，日本国债拍卖遇冷或也催化了市场对超长债供 需失衡的悲观情绪。不过，此次日元套息交易规模或相对较小，套息交易逆转对全球流动性带来的外溢冲 击或相对可控。未来来看，仍需关注后续日本政府债券拍卖情况是否会进一步冲击市场情绪、日央行是否 会释放鸽派信号缓解市场恐慌、以及 7 月的日本国会参议院选举结果。 美国经济： 4 月美国新建住房及成屋销售同比增速有所回升； 5 月美国 Markit 制造业与服务业 PMI 均 超预期回升。截至 5 月 23 日，市场交易层面通胀预期维持稳定。 欧洲经济： 5 月受服务业景气度走弱影响，欧元区 PMI 回落至荣枯线之下； 5 月欧元区 27 国消费者信 心指数小幅回升，但总体仍处相对低位。 政策： 短期美联储降息仍将谨慎；欧央行 6 月或降息； ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully diversified its operations and customer base, mitigating risks associated with the U.S. tariff policies and focusing on domestic sales while preparing for future international collaborations [2]. Group 1: Business Operations - The company primarily focuses on domestic sales and does not have direct exports to the U.S., resulting in limited impact from U.S. tariff policies [2]. - The company has shifted from a reliance on single customers and products to a diversified approach, covering various domestic and international lithium battery downstream manufacturers and traders [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first quarter, the company's gross margin decreased year-on-year but is expected to show growth compared to 2024, influenced by product structure adjustments and stabilization of nickel and cobalt metal prices [2]. - The company aims to reduce its asset-liability ratio of 82.85% by improving cash flow, enhancing cash management, and promoting convertible bond conversions [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Product Planning - As of the end of 2024, the company has established a production capacity of 34,000 tons for precursors, 24,000 tons for battery-grade lithium carbonate, and 45,600 tons for intermediate nickel-cobalt salts [3]. - The company plans to focus on high-nickel products while expanding general-purpose precursor sales and aims to lower costs and improve profitability through raw material extension and increased recycling material ratios [3]. Group 4: Future Strategies - The company is preparing to collaborate with overseas enterprises through technology exports, transitioning from product exports to technology exports, with current overseas projects still in the preparatory stage [2]. - The company has completed its technological upgrades and plans to increase sales of intermediate products such as sulfate, lithium carbonate, and precursors by 2025, enhancing competitiveness through supply chain optimization and deeper customer cooperation [2].

在电池回收市场， 价格随行就市，一般来说三元废料价格与钴盐、镍盐、锰盐等主要原材料价格 较为紧密， 而近期钴价和镍价的波动则进一步影响电池市场。自 2 月中旬以来，钴价涨幅超 60% ，镍价今年一季度以来也有超 5% 以上的涨幅。 摘要 三元废料价格上涨助推电池回收产业回暖。 随着上游原材料价格上涨，三元废料价格也迎来了持续的价格上涨。 市场数据显示，截至 3 月 28 日，三元废料已经进行了连续近一周的价格上涨，涨价幅度从几百 到上千元不等。上周方壳、软包报废三元电池价格分别上涨 400 元 / 吨、 550 元 / 吨。以报废 三元极片为例，其价格已涨至 46000 - 48150 元 / 吨，三元极片粉料价格在 52400 - 54900 元 / 吨区间波动，三元电池粉料价格则处于 32850 - 35250 元 / 吨。 不过价格变动，只是电池回收市场变革的一个缩影。电池回收市场更需要深层次的商业模式支撑。 目前来看，电池回收产业仍没有完全解决货源、渠道等问题，电池回收的规模，设备和技术问题也 限制了电池回收产业链的进一步发展。 此前有头部锂电回收企业表示，动力电池退役潮或在 2027 年出现，短期内 ...