Core Viewpoint - Daoshi Technology reported a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, indicating a shift towards more profitable business segments and strategic investments in new materials and technologies [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 3.654 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.64% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 230 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 108.16% [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.3192 yuan [1] Business Strategy - Daoshi Technology is focusing on material innovation and has diversified its business from a single ceramic material focus to a multi-faceted approach including carbon materials, lithium battery materials, and strategic resources [1] - The company has defined its strategic direction as "AI + Materials" [1] Key Business Segments - Carbon materials and lithium battery materials have become the core strategic businesses [1] - In the carbon materials segment, the company is expanding into artificial graphite anode materials and accelerating the industrialization of silicon-carbon anode materials, creating a synergistic product matrix [1][2] - The new generation of anode materials, silicon-carbon anode materials, offers high energy density and fast charging capabilities, compatible with solid-state battery systems [1] Supply Chain and R&D - Daoshi Technology is enhancing its supply chain and R&D system for conductive agents, focusing on single-walled carbon nanotubes and silicon-carbon anodes, as well as solid-state battery key materials [2] - The company is optimizing performance and cost control while accelerating capacity layout and process refinement [2] Lithium Battery Materials - The lithium battery materials segment includes products like ternary precursors and cobalt salts, with production concentrated in Guangdong and Jiangxi [2] - The company benefited from rising cobalt metal prices, leading to improved gross margins for cobalt products [2] Strategic Investments - Daoshi Technology plans to invest $165 million in a copper wet smelting plant in the Democratic Republic of Congo, aiming to leverage local copper and cobalt resources for cost competitiveness and capacity efficiency [3] - The company is also expanding the production capacity of single-walled carbon nanotubes and silicon-carbon anodes to meet market demand [3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]

Core Viewpoint - The temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been extended for an additional three months, now lasting a total of seven months, in response to an oversupply in the global cobalt market [1][7]. Industry Impact - The extension of the cobalt export ban has led to a rise in the energy metals sector, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) seeing a stock price increase of 15.42%, and other firms such as Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) also experiencing significant gains [1]. - Cobalt prices have increased, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt reported at 244,000 yuan/ton, up by 8,500 yuan from the previous working day [1]. Company Responses - Major Chinese cobalt producers, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have indicated that their operations in the DRC are not significantly impacted by the export ban extension. Luoyang Molybdenum reported a cobalt production of 114,200 tons last year, a 106% increase year-on-year, while Huayou Cobalt noted that its cobalt capacity is primarily based in Indonesia, minimizing the impact of the DRC ban [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that domestic cobalt refining companies may face pressure due to increased uncertainty in cobalt raw material supply, although they currently have sufficient inventory to continue production [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 76% of the world's cobalt production last year [5]. - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had already dropped nearly 70% from their peak in Q1 2022, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [6]. - The ban's extension is expected to affect 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC this year, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage by 2025, which could drive prices up [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts have mixed views on whether the DRC's export ban will effectively alter the global cobalt supply-demand balance. Some predict short-term price increases driven by market sentiment, while others caution that without sufficient demand, the oversupply may persist [8][9]. - The DRC's strategy may include measures to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market, although the implications of such strategies on the overall market dynamics remain uncertain [9].

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to significantly impact the cobalt market, leading to supply shortages and potential price increases, with companies like Huayou Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt seeing substantial stock price gains as a result [1][2]. Supply and Demand Overview - DRC's cobalt production in 2024 is projected at 220,000 tons, accounting for 75.9% of global supply, with a monthly export of 18,000 tons. If the export ban is extended to six months, it could reduce exports by 108,000 tons, which is equivalent to 84% of China's cobalt demand for 2024 [1]. - China's cobalt supply is expected to decrease by 38% to 104,000 tons, while demand will slightly increase by 2.3% to 131,000 tons, resulting in a shift from a surplus of 42,000 tons to a shortage of 27,000 tons [1]. Industry Chain Impact - **Upstream Mining**: Non-DRC production is becoming a scarce asset. Huayou Cobalt's Indonesian capacity of 30,000 tons is expected to generate 5 billion yuan in revenue by 2025, despite being 10% more expensive than DRC production [2]. - **Midstream Smelting**: Companies like Greeenmei and Zhongwei Co. are adapting their raw material sources to reduce costs and mitigate risks associated with DRC's export policies [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The electric vehicle sector is increasing cobalt procurement by 50% year-on-year, while the 3C battery sector is expected to see an 8% increase in cobalt demand, indicating differing responses to market conditions [4]. Investment Landscape - Focus on non-DRC production and recycling sectors is recommended. Companies like Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources are positioned to benefit from reduced export risks, while recycling firms like Greenmei are expected to see a 120% increase in cobalt recovery by 2025 [5][6]. - The performance elasticity of companies is linked to their ability to increase non-DRC production, with a 10% increase in Indonesian capacity potentially raising profit margins by 3-5% [6]. Conclusion - The cobalt market is experiencing a short-term supply contraction due to administrative interventions, with a dual strategy recommended for investors: short-term trading opportunities in non-DRC production and long-term investments in cobalt recycling and low-cobalt battery technologies [7].

Group 1 - Jinchuan Nickel Cobalt has completed its IPO counseling with CITIC Securities and CICC as advisors, but has not disclosed financial data or the total fundraising amount yet [2] - The company, established in 2013, is the largest producer in China's nickel-cobalt industry, with a post-investment valuation close to 70 billion yuan after a recent capital increase [5] - In 2024, Jinchuan Nickel Cobalt reported revenues of 37.479 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.849 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year decline in both revenue and profit [5][6] Group 2 - The revenue from nickel products for Jinchuan Group showed a decline from 32.673 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.456 billion yuan in Q1 2025, while cobalt product revenues also decreased significantly [6] - The overall nickel market is facing oversupply and slowing demand growth, leading to fluctuating nickel prices, although there is potential for recovery due to emerging industries [7] - The cobalt market is experiencing severe supply-demand imbalances, with significant price drops, and non-listed companies face greater performance pressures without capital market support [8]

Macro - Japan's ultra-long bond yields have risen significantly due to increased market concerns over bond supply shocks from fiscal expansion influenced by tariffs [1] - Demand for ultra-long bonds from domestic institutions has been weak since 2025, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance [1] - The recent cold reception of Japanese government bond auctions has exacerbated negative market sentiment [1] - Future attention should be paid to upcoming government bond auctions, potential dovish signals from the Bank of Japan, and the results of the July Senate elections [1] Fixed Income - Japan's 20-year government bond auction showed a rapid decline in market demand, reaching a new low since 2012, with the auction tail spread hitting the highest level since 1987 [4] - The yield on Japan's 20-year bonds surged to 2.539%, the highest since 2000, while the 10-year and 30-year yields also reached record highs [4] - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio was 219.15% in Q1 2025, the highest among developed economies, with rising interest rates further increasing debt servicing costs [5] - The Bank of Japan's ongoing reduction in bond purchases necessitates finding new buyers for government bonds [5] - Rising inflation and interest rate pressures in Japan make long-term bond yields difficult to decrease [5] - The rapid rise in Japanese bond yields poses risks of fiscal strain, losses for bondholders, and potential spillover effects on global bond markets [6] - The impact of rising yields on China's bond market is expected to be limited due to differing inflation environments and fiscal conditions [6] Non-Ferrous Metals - The lithium and cobalt sectors are experiencing price fluctuations, with lithium prices showing signs of stabilization despite high inventory levels [8] - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a weekly average of 61,600 yuan/ton, down 2.25% from the previous week [9] - Cobalt raw material supply is tightening, but demand remains cautious, leading to a weak overall market [10] - Phosphate iron lithium and ternary material prices have also seen declines, with phosphate iron lithium averaging 30,300 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The rising prices of ternary waste materials are driving a recovery in the battery recycling industry [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Ternary waste material prices have seen continuous increases, with price hikes ranging from hundreds to thousands of yuan [2] - As of March 28, the prices for scrapped ternary batteries have risen, with specific increases of 400 yuan/ton for square shell batteries and 550 yuan/ton for soft-pack batteries [2] - The price of scrapped ternary pole pieces has reached 46,000 - 48,150 yuan/ton, while ternary pole piece powder fluctuates between 52,400 - 54,900 yuan/ton, and ternary battery powder is priced at 32,850 - 35,250 yuan/ton [2] - Cobalt prices have increased by over 60% since mid-February, and nickel prices have risen by more than 5% in the first quarter of this year [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Holders of ternary waste materials are generally reluctant to sell, anticipating further price increases for metal salts, leading to reduced actual circulation of ternary waste materials and exacerbating supply tightness [3] - Downstream recycling companies are cautious despite the potential for increased profit margins due to rising raw material prices, as rapid price fluctuations pose significant risks [3] - Some recycling companies prefer to consume existing inventory rather than procure new materials to mitigate uncertainties from price volatility [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The increase in waste material prices is beneficial for the battery recycling industry, allowing legitimate recycling companies to acquire waste at more reasonable prices and attract more used batteries into formal channels [3] - The battery recycling market requires deeper commercial model support, as issues related to sourcing, channels, scale, equipment, and technology still hinder the industry's development [4] - The potential for the battery recycling market is significant, especially with the anticipated wave of retired power batteries around 2027, but the industry is still in its early stages of growth [4] - Challenges such as technical standards, business models, and regulatory policies need to be addressed collaboratively to resolve existing issues in the battery recycling industry [4]