Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai nickel, it is expected to have a wide - range adjustment in the short - term. Pay attention to the MA5 support and the 130,000 - yuan resistance level [7]. - For stainless steel, it is predicted that the futures price will adjust at a high level. Focus on the MA5 support and the 13,200 - yuan resistance level [7]. Summary of Each Section 1. Week - to - Week Summary Shanghai Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose significantly, with a weekly increase of + 8.17% and an amplitude of 12.20%. The closing price was 126,750 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of the macro aspect, the US ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months. Fundamentally, the nickel ore imports are expected to decline as the Philippines enters the rainy season, and Indonesia plans to cut the RKAB quota significantly next year, causing concerns about raw material supply. In the smelting sector, Indonesia's nickel - iron output remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase; multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into production one after another. Although some production has been cut due to the shortage of intermediate raw materials and profit losses, the output is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large. In terms of demand, the price of nickel - iron, the cost of stainless steel, has decreased, and the steel mills' profit has improved, with a high expected production schedule; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, and the market mainly purchases on demand, with the spot premium rising; the LME inventory overseas also shows an increase. Technically, trading volume has increased, and the position is at a high level, with greater differences between long and short positions [7]. Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel rose significantly, with a weekly increase of + 1.85% and an amplitude of 3.14%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,955 yuan/ton [7]. - In the raw material aspect, as the Philippines gradually enters the rainy season and the nickel ore grade declines, the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening; Indonesia's plan to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year will put pressure on nickel - iron production due to the shrinking raw material supply. On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend, and the impact of the previous extrusion of exports is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and trading performance are average. However, the market arrivals are also limited, so the national stainless - steel social inventory maintains a seasonal slight decline. Technically, the position has decreased, and the price has adjusted, with a cautious long - position sentiment [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Price - As of December 26, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 905 yuan/nickel, up 15 yuan/nickel from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 126,750 yuan/ton, up 9,570 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,955 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan/ton from last week [13]. Basis - As of December 26, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 129,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,950 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 595 yuan/ton. This week, the basis of Shanghai nickel rose, and the basis of stainless steel fell [18]. Price Ratio - As of December 26, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.78, up 0.57 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67 yuan/ton, down 0.26 from last week [25]. Net Long Positions of the Top 20 - As of December 26, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 47,699 lots, a decrease of 18,647 lots compared to December 22, 2025. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 13,994 lots, a decrease of 8,415 lots compared to December 22, 2025 [31]. 3. Industrial Chain Supply - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory and Electrowinning Nickel Production Profit**: As of December 26, the nickel ore inventory at major ports nationwide was 13.7647 million tons, a decrease of 626,700 tons from last week. The production profit of electrowinning nickel was 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 12,000 yuan/ton from last week [37][38]. - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Imports**: In September 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In November 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 12,840.486 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.18%; from January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 209,244.351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 157.2% [43]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of December 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 44,454 tons, a decrease of 826 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 255,696 tons, an increase of 2,214 tons from last week [50][51]. Demand - **Stainless Steel Production and Exports**: In November 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.4931 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 689,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.49%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.042 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. In November 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 109,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons; the export volume was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.4695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,900 tons [55]. - **300 - Series Stainless Steel Inventory in Foshan and Wuxi**: As of December 26, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 264,500 tons, a decrease of 21,646 tons from last week; the stainless - steel inventory in Wuxi was 544,038 tons, a decrease of 9,489 tons from last week [60]. - **Stainless Steel Production Profit**: As of December 26, the stainless - steel production profit was 98 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton from last week [64]. - **Real Estate and Home Appliance Industries**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; real estate development investment was 785.909 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.64%; the household refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.67%; the household washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.96%; the freezer production was 2.619 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.17% [68]. - **Automobile and Machinery Industries**: In November 2025, China's new - energy vehicle production was 3.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%; the sales volume was 3.429 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%. In November 2025, the excavator production was 33,623 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the large - and medium - sized tractor production was 22,592 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.11%; the small - tractor production was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline and rising material costs, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,930 yuan/ton and closed at 120,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,598 (- 20,952) lots, and the open interest was 82,558 (- 2,171) lots. The night - session opened with a slight increase, reaching a maximum of 122,390 yuan/ton and closing at 121,970 yuan/ton, but the day - session showed a continuous decline and low - level oscillation. The trading volume decreased by 20,900 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The 1.4% nickel ore CIF at 50.5 was transacted during the day, with a rising price compared to the previous period. The offer price for 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia was 43.44. The Philippine side had firm quotes and good shipping efficiency. The downstream nickel - iron price was stable, while domestic iron plants were still in loss and had cautious purchases. In Indonesia, the nickel - ore market supply was relatively loose, and the domestic trade benchmark price in September (first phase) decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars. The domestic trade premium in September (first phase) remained at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were dull, and the premium and discount were stable. Jinchuan and Huayou brands had slight downward adjustments. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,739 (- 121) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 215,310 (+ 1,080) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations. - **Inter - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - spot**: None. - **Options**: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,930 yuan/ton and closed at 12,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 99,009 (+ 11,460) lots, and the open interest was 82,425 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session opened with a rapid decline, maintained a weak oscillation throughout the day, and finally closed at 12,855 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.58%. The trading volume on this day was 99,000 lots, an increase of 11,500 lots from the previous trading day, but the open interest had declined for nine consecutive trading days [3]. - **Spot**: The weakening of futures prices led to stronger market wait - and - see sentiment. Traders further offered discounts, but the transaction situation did not improve. Inquiries and transactions during the day were both dull. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,200 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,200 (- 50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 340 - 640 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron the previous day changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 944.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - spot**: None. - **Options**: None [3][4].

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai nickel and stainless steel dated August 15, 2025, provided by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Nickel 2509 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3] - Stainless Steel 2510 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5] Summary by Directory Shanghai Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The external market has fallen significantly, with prices below the 20 - day moving average. There was a shipment of Norwegian nickel slabs last week, increasing supply. The ore price is stable, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has stabilized and rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has declined. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Overall, it is bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price is 123,350, and the basis is 2,150, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,720 (+142), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is stable, ocean freight has decreased slightly, and the ferronickel price has a slight increase. The cost line has risen slightly, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Overall, it is neutral [5] - **Basis**: The average stainless - steel price is 13,850, and the basis is 825, which is bullish [5] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 103,521 (+3), which is bearish [5] - **Market**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5] Multi - and Short - term Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [8] - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, with no new demand growth points. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries has increased [8] Price Overview - **Nickel**: On August 14, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,200 (-1,140 compared to August 13), and the LME nickel was at 15,050 (-190). The spot prices of SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans all decreased [13] - **Stainless Steel**: On August 14, the stainless - steel main contract was at 13,025 (-105 compared to August 13), and the spot prices of cold - rolled coils in different regions remained unchanged [13] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 14, LME inventory was 211,140 (+42), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,720 (+142) [15][16] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 8, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,620 tons, in Foshan was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons month - on - month. The 300 - series inventory was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons month - on - month. On August 14, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 103,521 (+3) [19][20] Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - Red soil nickel ore CIF prices (Ni1.5% at 57 dollars/wet ton and Ni0.9% at 29 dollars/wet ton) remained unchanged on August 14 compared to August 13. Ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel price increased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point, and the low - nickel ferronickel price remained unchanged [23] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,931, the scrap - steel production cost is 13,649, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,534 [25] Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price is 121,457/ton [28]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel contract 2509 is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is bearish in the medium - to - long term due to an oversupply pattern, although there are some short - term influencing factors. [3][4] - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel contract 2509 is also expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average. The short - term situation is neutral, mainly affected by the off - season consumption and cost factors. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Daily Views** - **沪镍** - **基本面**: The external market rebounded but was pressured by the 20 - day moving average. Ore prices and nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, with some nickel - iron quotes rising. The cost line remained low. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 - series increased slightly this week. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading volume of ternary batteries decreased, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, which is bearish. [4] - **基差**: The spot price was 121,250, and the basis was 620, which is bullish. [4] - **库存**: LME inventory was 209,082 (unchanged), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 21,170, a decrease of 204, which is bearish. [4] - **盘面**: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is neutral. [4] - **主力持仓**: The main players held a net short position, and short positions increased, which is bearish. [4] - **不锈钢** - **基本面**: The spot stainless steel price remained flat. Short - term nickel ore prices were weakly stable, ocean freight was firm, and nickel - iron prices were weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line remained low, and stainless steel consumption entered the off - season, which is neutral. [6] - **基差**: The average stainless steel price was 13,675, and the basis was 750, which is bullish. [6] - **库存**: The futures warehouse receipts were 102,925, a decrease of 61, which is bearish. [6] - **盘面**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is bullish. [6] **多空因素** - **利多因素**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" and anti - involution policies. [9] - **利空因素**: Domestic production continued to rise significantly year - on - year, there were no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged; nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line remained low; the substitution ratio of ternary batteries increased. [9] **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** - **期货 prices**: On August 4th, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,630 (an increase of 860 compared to August 1st), the LME nickel was 15,105 (an increase of 85), the stainless steel main contract was 12,925 (an increase of 85). [14] - **Spot prices**: On August 4th, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,250 (an increase of 600), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122,500 (an increase of 650), 1 imported nickel was 120,500 (an increase of 550), and nickel beans were 119,700 (an increase of 550). Cold - rolled coil prices in different regions remained unchanged. [14] **镍仓单、库存** - As of August 1st, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,750 tons, of which the futures inventory was 21,374 tons, an increase of 299 tons and a decrease of 573 tons respectively. On August 4th, LME nickel inventory was 209,082 (unchanged), Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,170 (a decrease of 204), and the total inventory was 230,252 (a decrease of 204). [16][17] **不锈钢仓单、库存** - On August 1st, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons month - on - month. The inventory of the 300 - series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons month - on - month. On August 4th, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 102,925, a decrease of 61. [20][21] **镍矿、镍铁价格** - **镍矿**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged. Ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, both unchanged. [25] - **镍铁**: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 914 yuan per nickel point (an increase of 1.5), and low - nickel (below 2) was 3,400 yuan per ton (an increase of 100). [25] **不锈钢生产成本** - The traditional cost was 12,800, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,473, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,336. [27] **镍进口成本测算** - The imported price was converted to 122,034 yuan per ton. [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Influenced by anti - involution, the Shanghai nickel 2508 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, but positive factors such as good new energy vehicle production and sales data may support the price [2]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel 2509 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the cost line may continue to move down [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On July 21, the Shanghai nickel主力 contract closed at 122,550 yuan, up 2,050 yuan from July 18; the London nickel closed at 15,510, up 265. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan, up 1,350 yuan [12]. - **不锈钢**: On July 21, the stainless steel主力 contract closed at 12,905 yuan, up 180 yuan from July 18. The average spot price of stainless steel was 13,550 yuan [12]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of July 21, the LME nickel inventory was 207,876, an increase of 300; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 22,111, an increase of 551 [2][15]. - **不锈钢**: As of July 21, the stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 103,599, unchanged from July 18. On July 18, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.1478 million tons, a decrease of 19,700 tons from the previous period [4][19][20]. 3.3 Cost - **镍**: The price of nickel ore has slightly declined, the freight rate remains firm due to insufficient shipping capacity, and the price of nickel iron is weak, causing the cost line to move down [2]. - **不锈钢**: The traditional cost of stainless steel is 12,753 yuan, the scrap steel production cost is 13,531 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost is 16,584 yuan [25]. 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: Good new energy vehicle production and sales data in June, and the possible impact of the anti - involution policy [7]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; stainless steel warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market, increasing the supply pressure; the price of nickel ore has started to weaken, and the price of nickel iron continues to be stable with a slight decline [7].