交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年8月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 6、结论：沪镍2509：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 1、基本面：外盘反弹，但20均线承压。产业链上，矿价弱稳，镍铁价格同样弱稳，但部分报价有所回 升，成本线依然在低位。不锈钢7、8月是传统消费淡季，本周库存300系有小幅上升。新能源汽车产销 数据较好，但三元电池装车量在下降，镍在新能源的需求下降。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121250，基差620，偏多 3、库存：LME库存209082，0，上交所仓单21170，-204，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、接下来金九银十预期 2、反内 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Influenced by anti - involution, the Shanghai nickel 2508 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, but positive factors such as good new energy vehicle production and sales data may support the price [2]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel 2509 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the cost line may continue to move down [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On July 21, the Shanghai nickel主力 contract closed at 122,550 yuan, up 2,050 yuan from July 18; the London nickel closed at 15,510, up 265. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan, up 1,350 yuan [12]. - **不锈钢**: On July 21, the stainless steel主力 contract closed at 12,905 yuan, up 180 yuan from July 18. The average spot price of stainless steel was 13,550 yuan [12]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of July 21, the LME nickel inventory was 207,876, an increase of 300; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 22,111, an increase of 551 [2][15]. - **不锈钢**: As of July 21, the stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 103,599, unchanged from July 18. On July 18, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.1478 million tons, a decrease of 19,700 tons from the previous period [4][19][20]. 3.3 Cost - **镍**: The price of nickel ore has slightly declined, the freight rate remains firm due to insufficient shipping capacity, and the price of nickel iron is weak, causing the cost line to move down [2]. - **不锈钢**: The traditional cost of stainless steel is 12,753 yuan, the scrap steel production cost is 13,531 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost is 16,584 yuan [25]. 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: Good new energy vehicle production and sales data in June, and the possible impact of the anti - involution policy [7]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; stainless steel warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market, increasing the supply pressure; the price of nickel ore has started to weaken, and the price of nickel iron continues to be stable with a slight decline [7].