Core Viewpoint - Wall Street strategists are advising clients to shift investment focus from "Tech Giants" to traditional cyclical sectors such as healthcare, industrials, energy, and finance by 2026, driven by doubts about the sustainability of tech valuations and optimism about the U.S. economic outlook [1][3][4]. Investment Shift - A consensus is forming on Wall Street that the tech giants, which have led the bull market, may step back, with a market rotation becoming the new investment theme for 2026 [3]. - Major firms like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley are recommending a greater focus on traditional sectors rather than tech stocks like Nvidia and Amazon [3][4]. - Concerns have risen as earnings reports from AI bellwethers like Oracle and Broadcom failed to meet high market expectations, leading to a shift in investor sentiment [3][4]. Market Performance - Since November 20, the Russell 2000 small-cap index has risen by 11%, while the "Tech Giants" index's gains were only half of that [3]. - The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has outperformed its market-cap-weighted counterpart, indicating a broader market rotation [5]. Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 2.5% GDP growth for the U.S. in 2026, higher than the market consensus of 2.0%, suggesting further upside for cyclical sectors [3][7]. - The report emphasizes that the market has not fully priced in the potential economic acceleration expected in 2026 [7][8]. Sector Opportunities - Goldman Sachs highlights non-residential construction stocks as having significant potential, as they have underperformed due to weak earnings but are expected to improve by 2026 [9]. - The earnings growth for the "S&P 493" (excluding the Tech Giants) is projected to accelerate from 7% this year to 9% by 2026, while the Tech Giants' contribution to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% to 46% [9]. Risks - Key risks for cyclical stocks include disappointing economic growth and a potential decline in construction activity for non-residential construction companies [10]. - A sharp rise in interest rates could also pose a threat, as historical data suggests that significant increases in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields can lead to market sell-offs [10].

据彭博社报道，包括美国银行和摩根士丹利在内的多家华尔街大行策略师正建议客户，在2026年的投资 组合中，应更多关注医疗保健、工业和能源等传统板块，而非英伟达和亚马逊等"科技七巨头"。这一转 变的背后，是对科技股高昂估值和巨额AI投资回报的日益增长的怀疑。 市场情绪的变化已有迹可循。近期，甲骨文(ORCL.US)和博通(AVGO.US)等AI风向标公司的财报未能满 足市场的极高期望，加剧了投资者的担忧。与此同时，资金流向显示，投资者正从科技巨头转向估值较 低的周期股、小盘股和经济敏感型板块。自11月20日市场触及短期低点以来，罗素2000小盘股指数上涨 了11%，而"科技七巨头"指数的涨幅仅为其一半。 高盛集团在12月12日发布的最新报告中为这一轮动趋势提供了更深层次的注解。该行策略师指出，尽管 近期周期股已大幅反弹，但市场尚未完全消化2026年美国可能出现的经济前景。高盛预测明年美国 GDP增速将达2.5%，高于2.0%的市场共识，并认为这意味着周期性板块仍有上行空间。 告别科技股？估值与增长疑虑浮现 多年来，投资大型科技公司似乎是毋庸置疑的选择。然而，在经历了过去三年约300%的惊人涨幅后， 市场开始质疑这 ...

Piper Sandler & Co.的首席市场技术分析师Craig Johnson表示："我听到人们正在从'科技七巨头'交易中撤 出资金，并投向市场的其他领域。他们不再只是追逐微软和亚马逊了，而是正在拓宽这个交易。" 据彭博社报道，资深策略师、Yardeni Research的创始人Ed Yardeni本周也建议投资者相对于标普500指 数的其余部分减持大型科技股，这是他自2010年以来首次改变对信息技术和通信服务板块的增持立场。 这一系列观点转变，反映出华尔街对科技股未来增长路径的审慎态度。 随着2026年的临近，华尔街正在形成一个日益清晰的共识：过去数年引领牛市的科技巨头可能将让出舞 台中央，市场轮动将成为新一年的投资主旋律。 "大轮动"已在进行时 据彭博社报道，包括美国银行和摩根士丹利在内的多家华尔街大行策略师正建议客户，在2026年的投资 组合中，应更多关注医疗保健、工业和能源等传统板块，而非英伟达和亚马逊等"科技七巨头"。这一转 变的背后，是对科技股高昂估值和巨额AI投资回报的日益增长的怀疑。 市场情绪的变化已有迹可循。近期，甲骨文和博通等AI风向标公司的财报未能满足市场的极高期望， 加剧了投资者 ...

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.4% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, with significant contributions from the services and agriculture sectors [1] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main driver of economic growth in Q2, growing by 5.3% compared to 5.0% in Q1, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and business services [1] - Agriculture showed notable improvement with a 2.0% growth in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, largely due to increased palm oil production [1] - The construction industry continued its strong growth, achieving an 11% increase in Q2, despite a slowdown from 14.2% in Q1, driven by non-residential and specialized construction activities [2] - Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.8% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1, but key sectors like electrical, electronic, and food processing remained robust [2] - The mining and quarrying sector faced challenges, contracting by 7.4% in Q2, worsened from a 2.7% decline in Q1, primarily due to falling oil and gas production [2] Domestic Consumption - Strong domestic consumption was a key factor in Q2 economic growth, supported by a stable labor market and low unemployment rates, which bolstered household spending [2] - Government cash assistance programs, such as SARA and STR, provided additional support to household spending, alleviating economic pressure on families [3] Trade and Policy Challenges - Despite exceeding growth expectations, Malaysia's economy faces challenges from global trade uncertainties, with exports unexpectedly declining by 3.5% in June [3] - Potential tariffs from the U.S. on Malaysian exports, particularly a proposed 25% tariff effective August 1, could significantly impact the export market [3] - The slowdown in major export markets may also affect export demand, alongside domestic policy adjustments that could pressure economic growth [3] Future Outlook - The central bank anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year but expects the annual growth rate to exceed 4.5% [4] - Continued domestic demand growth and government policy support are expected to provide some buffer for the economy [4] - The central bank is closely monitoring trade and tariff developments and is likely to implement further interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth [4]