The futures on the second to last day of the year are pretty steady, showing minimal declines uh headed for the uh indexes after a modest drop yesterday. Joining us now is Ross Mayfield, Bayard investment strategist. Ross, uh good morning.So, we're, you know, have a strong year. Uh S&P up 17 plus% on a price basis in 2025, although kind of coasting into the close here. We're pretty much flat with levels we got to two months ago.A lot of rotation underneath. What's the setup for 2026. >> Yeah, I think the bi ...

对于今天9连阳，上午是没有疑问的，下午跳水后我认为也是没有疑问的，主要是金融板块上涨，对沪指有明显的带动作用，可创业板并没有这种板块，于 是今天下跌了。其实自上周五开始，市场就已经不是普涨状态，都是待涨数据更多一些，今天指数虽然收出9连涨，但个股并没有任何的超卖信号。如果你 非得盯沪指看，明天说不定是这两天待涨的个股领涨，这两天扛指数的个股休整，所以光讨论指数是没有意义的。看赚钱效应，近期最强还是商业航天，其 次是机器人，两条主线各不相扰，如果你抓住了主线，这就是牛市，但如果抓住这两天待涨的，甚至上上周到今天还是待涨的，那指数那怕是10连阳与你又 何干呢？我觉得现在的指数已经不能用正常的观察手段去分析，如果主力真要涨，我认为涨到春节后也是可以的。所以关键的问题不是讨论昨天是不是10连 阳，而是指数走稳了，应该看好那些方向，在那些题材里配置可能跑赢市场，这样会更有讨论意义。 中线策略分析：【整体情况】 今天涨停过10家的有航天，机器人和ST板块，涨停数据排序是23-16-14-5-5，很明显，低于10家涨停的断层非常大，再加上航天8连板，机器人4连板，ST板 块6连板，大家想到啥？庄家抱团！对的，现在就是庄家抱 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国股市已基本确定在2025年连续第三年实现双位数涨幅。在这一年里，支撑美股涨势的不止AI热潮下受益的科技巨头，更多AI价值链 上的公司同样获得青睐。与此同时，银行、医疗保健等价值股重新被投资者关注，贵金属猛涨则带飞金银矿业股。展望2026年，美股涨势将面临多重考验， 波动性预计也将贯穿全年。在AI对美股的提振可能减弱的情况下，周期股或许会成为新的"主角"。 一、回望2025 1、美股年内屡创新高 AI仍是主引擎 在人工智能(AI)热潮、货币政策宽松预期、企业盈利持续超预期以及地缘政治风险缓和(如贸易摩擦缓解)等多重因素的推动下，美股连续第三年实现双位数 涨幅。数据显示，截至12月24日，标普500指数年内上涨约18%，在12月26日盘中一度涨至6945.77点，创下历史新高;以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨 约22%，道琼斯指数则上涨约14%。 具体来看，标普500指数的11个细分板块中，通信服务板块与信息技术板块涨幅靠前，分别上涨了约32%和25%。其中，通信服务板块的华纳兄弟探索 (WBD.US)在收购消息的加持下今年迄今涨超172%。信息技术板块中，在存储行业迎来"超级周期"的加 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has led to a market rally, but the growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains concerning, with initial projections showing only 1.7% and 1.8% growth respectively, although a recent revision suggests a potential increase to 2.3% for 2026 [2][3] Economic Projections - The Fed's growth forecast for 2023 and 2024 appears strong, but the outlook for 2025 is weak, with a notable upward revision for 2026 [2][3] - Inflation expectations have significantly decreased, indicating a potential for a more favorable economic environment [3] Market Dynamics - There is a potential for a "Goldilocks" scenario with improved growth and reduced inflation, possibly driven by productivity gains from AI deployment [4] - The easing cycle may be sustained longer than anticipated, benefiting stock markets [5] Sector Performance - A rotation in the market is observed, with small-cap stocks and non-tech sectors performing better, although tech stocks are still expected to show strong earnings [6][8] - The gap between tech operating margins and the rest of the market needs to close to justify continued rotation into non-tech sectors [9] Investment Strategies - Current market conditions suggest a focus on value sectors such as industrials, healthcare, and financials, as earnings growth forecasts for 2026 are being revised positively [12][13] - The correlation between quality and value investing has shifted post-pandemic, with momentum being the only consistently performing factor [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street strategists are advising clients to shift investment focus from "Tech Giants" to traditional cyclical sectors such as healthcare, industrials, energy, and finance by 2026, driven by doubts about the sustainability of tech valuations and optimism about the U.S. economic outlook [1][3][4]. Investment Shift - A consensus is forming on Wall Street that the tech giants, which have led the bull market, may step back, with a market rotation becoming the new investment theme for 2026 [3]. - Major firms like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley are recommending a greater focus on traditional sectors rather than tech stocks like Nvidia and Amazon [3][4]. - Concerns have risen as earnings reports from AI bellwethers like Oracle and Broadcom failed to meet high market expectations, leading to a shift in investor sentiment [3][4]. Market Performance - Since November 20, the Russell 2000 small-cap index has risen by 11%, while the "Tech Giants" index's gains were only half of that [3]. - The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has outperformed its market-cap-weighted counterpart, indicating a broader market rotation [5]. Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 2.5% GDP growth for the U.S. in 2026, higher than the market consensus of 2.0%, suggesting further upside for cyclical sectors [3][7]. - The report emphasizes that the market has not fully priced in the potential economic acceleration expected in 2026 [7][8]. Sector Opportunities - Goldman Sachs highlights non-residential construction stocks as having significant potential, as they have underperformed due to weak earnings but are expected to improve by 2026 [9]. - The earnings growth for the "S&P 493" (excluding the Tech Giants) is projected to accelerate from 7% this year to 9% by 2026, while the Tech Giants' contribution to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% to 46% [9]. Risks - Key risks for cyclical stocks include disappointing economic growth and a potential decline in construction activity for non-residential construction companies [10]. - A sharp rise in interest rates could also pose a threat, as historical data suggests that significant increases in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields can lead to market sell-offs [10].

据彭博社报道，包括美国银行和摩根士丹利在内的多家华尔街大行策略师正建议客户，在2026年的投资 组合中，应更多关注医疗保健、工业和能源等传统板块，而非英伟达和亚马逊等"科技七巨头"。这一转 变的背后，是对科技股高昂估值和巨额AI投资回报的日益增长的怀疑。 市场情绪的变化已有迹可循。近期，甲骨文(ORCL.US)和博通(AVGO.US)等AI风向标公司的财报未能满 足市场的极高期望，加剧了投资者的担忧。与此同时，资金流向显示，投资者正从科技巨头转向估值较 低的周期股、小盘股和经济敏感型板块。自11月20日市场触及短期低点以来，罗素2000小盘股指数上涨 了11%，而"科技七巨头"指数的涨幅仅为其一半。 高盛集团在12月12日发布的最新报告中为这一轮动趋势提供了更深层次的注解。该行策略师指出，尽管 近期周期股已大幅反弹，但市场尚未完全消化2026年美国可能出现的经济前景。高盛预测明年美国 GDP增速将达2.5%，高于2.0%的市场共识，并认为这意味着周期性板块仍有上行空间。 告别科技股？估值与增长疑虑浮现 多年来，投资大型科技公司似乎是毋庸置疑的选择。然而，在经历了过去三年约300%的惊人涨幅后， 市场开始质疑这 ...

Core Insights - Wall Street is shifting focus from technology giants to traditional sectors like healthcare, industrials, and energy as 2026 approaches, driven by skepticism over tech stock valuations and AI investment returns [1][2] - Recent earnings reports from AI bellwethers like Oracle and Broadcom have heightened investor concerns, leading to a rotation towards lower-valued cyclical stocks and small-cap stocks [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 2.5% GDP growth for the U.S. in 2024, higher than the market consensus of 2.0%, suggesting further upside for cyclical sectors [1][4] Group 1 - The consensus among major Wall Street strategists is to reduce exposure to the "Tech Seven" and increase investments in traditional sectors [1][2] - The Russell 2000 small-cap index has risen 11% since November 20, while the "Tech Seven" index's gains were only half of that [1] - Piper Sandler's Craig Johnson notes a shift in investor behavior away from tech giants towards broader market opportunities [2] Group 2 - The market is already experiencing a rotation, with the S&P 500 equal-weight index outperforming its market-cap weighted counterpart [3] - Strategas Asset Management anticipates a significant rotation towards financials and consumer discretionary sectors in 2026 [3] - Bank of America highlights a "run-it-hot" strategy, indicating a shift from large-cap stocks to small and micro-cap stocks [3] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the market has not fully priced in the potential economic acceleration expected in 2026 [4][5] - The report indicates that cyclical assets present opportunities due to the market's conservative pricing of economic growth [5] - Non-residential construction stocks are highlighted as having significant potential for recovery, supported by fiscal incentives and improving forward-looking indicators [6] Group 4 - The earnings growth for the "S&P 493" (excluding the Tech Seven) is projected to accelerate from 7% this year to 9% by 2026, while the Tech Seven's contribution to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decline from 50% to 46% [6] - If employment and inflation data remain stable, the "S&P 493" could see bullish trends next year [6]

里昂又指，新兴市场今年以来按美元计算总回报达32%，创2017年以来最佳表现。该行按6个指标判断 这波行情的持续性，发现风险偏好、美元走势、每股盈利增长及货币周期均发出积极信号，时间点及相 对价值创造仍存在不确定性。该行预计新兴市场行情将延续至明年，并将明年年中MSCI新兴市场指数 目标定在1,550点，较当前有12%上升空间。 该行指，估值、盈利预期、指数集中度、资本开支及散户参与度均显示泡沫正在形成，再加上美国宏观 基本面日益不稳，风险进一步放大。美国"五大超大规模云服务商"(Hyperscaler 5)过去一年AI投资已呈 抛物线式飙升至3,570亿美元，同比升73%，但可能因技术颠覆、商品化、资产折旧及循环融资结构等 风险组合而脱轨。 智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，人工智能(AI)淘金热由充裕流动性推动，并主导今年投资格局。 展望明年，该行见到大量证据显示AI交易即将耗尽动能，尽管该行核心假设为动能与盈利仍将延续至 明年上半年，之后才到临界点，该行因而把明年年中标普500指数目标定在7,200点。该行目前予韩 国"增持"评级，作为该行对AI动能最偏好投资标的;同时考虑把印度及(相对较低程度)印尼 ...

And it's time for the big three. We've got three stocks, three charts, and three trades. Rick Ducat will take us through the charts as always.Here to take us through the trades today is Dan Deming, managing partner at KKM Financial. Thank you both for being with us. Dan, great to see you.You know, we finally got this Fed rate cut decision. Markets a bit mixed today. You know, I'd love to get your thoughts on the decision we got yesterday and the response that we're seeing today.You know, in conjunction with ...

盘中热点和量能的匹配情况。 首先，短期大盘仍以年终过渡性走势为主，其主要特征就是低成交量窄幅波动。 由于周二市场小幅回落，周三惯性探底后企稳整理，呈现出较强韧 性，下午则在房地产板块异军突起的带领下震荡回升，跌幅明显收窄，最终深成指成功翻红。从目前看，投资者对明年市场抱有较高预期，短线没有明显 的做空动力，但考虑到年底资金分流等因素影响，暂时仍以缩量盘整走势为主，进入12月下旬后，从布局明年市场考虑，多空天平将向多方倾斜。 从热点看，热点轮动，房地产板块异军突起，既有补涨轮涨的因素作用，也有市场期待政策面对房地产给与更多支持。 此外，商业百货、教育等大 消费板块也有轮动表现，短线波动几率较高。从跌幅榜看，电力设备、光伏设备、风电设备冲高回落，跌幅居前，亦以轮动为主。 展望后市： 大盘继续震荡整理，以稳为主。从技术面看，成交量萎缩，观望气氛有所增强。关注陆续公布的11月份宏观经济数据以及 风险提示： 消息面或海外市场表现超预期，流动性的不确定性。 ...