Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI for January to September showed a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first time in 19 months that it returned to above 1% [1] Food Prices - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year in September, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Cumulative food price change for the first nine months was -1.8%, while non-food items saw a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - Significant declines in specific food items included pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), eggs (-13.5%), and fresh fruits (-4.2%) in September [2] Gold Prices - In contrast, gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - International gold prices increased from approximately $3,500 per ounce at the beginning of September to nearly $3,800 per ounce by the end of the month [3] - Gold investment demand remained strong, with sales of gold bars and coins experiencing a 44% year-on-year increase in the second quarter [3][4] Market Demand and Economic Policy - The low CPI indicates a persistent issue of oversupply in the macroeconomic landscape, necessitating increased counter-cyclical policy measures [2][5] - The government aims for a CPI growth target of around 2% for the year, the lowest since 2004 [5] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence [5][6]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported a total global gold demand of 1079 tons in Q2 2025, a decrease of 17.4% from Q1, but an increase of 12.8% year-on-year [1] - Gold supply in Q2 was 1248.8 tons, reflecting a 6.3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices stimulating mining supply expansion [1] Investment Demand - Global gold ETF demand remained strong for two consecutive quarters, with Q2 demand decreasing from 248.6 tons to 166.5 tons, a decline of 33%, yet still at a high level compared to previous years [2] - North America saw gold ETF inflows of 72.9 tons, totaling 1857 tons, while Asia followed with 69.9 tons, reaching 320.7 tons, with Europe and other regions also maintaining a net inflow trend [2] - Investment in gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for three consecutive quarters, with Q2 demand decreasing to 306.8 tons, a 5.5% decline from Q1, but still marking the strongest performance since 2013 for the first half of the year [2] Central Bank Demand - Central bank purchases significantly supported global gold demand, with official gold reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2, a 33% decrease from Q1 [2] - The People's Bank of China has consistently purchased gold for nine months, raising reserves to 2300.4 tons, indicating a normalization of central bank gold buying [2] Jewelry and Industrial Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption was subdued in H1 2025, with Q2 central bank demand dropping to 356.7 tons, a 16.1% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 13.1% decrease year-on-year [3] - High prices and liquidation costs have dampened consumer purchasing willingness, contributing to a general downturn in the jewelry sector [3] - Industrial demand for gold fell to 78.6 tons in Q2, the lowest level of 2023, although AI-related applications present significant growth potential for gold demand [3] Supply Dynamics - Q2 gold mine supply increased by 9.1% to 908.6 tons, driven by high average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) profit margins encouraging mining expansion in countries like Ghana, Canada, and Chile [3] - Gold recycling volume decreased by 1.3 tons to 347.2 tons in Q2, with high prices limiting recycling incentives [3] Market Outlook - The dollar's potential structural weakness may attract more institutional attention, with a strong consensus on its mid-term decline [4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September could spark greater investor interest in gold [4] - Despite the strong inflow of global gold ETFs, demand may soften in H2 2025 if gold prices stabilize after significant increases [4] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains bullish amid de-dollarization trends, although price fluctuations may suppress investment and consumption demand [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has performed exceptionally well this year, with a double-digit increase in the main index, outperforming many global equity markets [2] - The new stock market has seen significant activity, with many new listings experiencing hundreds of times oversubscription during the offering phase, and post-listing performance has been strong, exemplified by companies like Mixue Group and CATL [2] - From early 2025 to July 11, the post-listing fundraising scale in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 164.418 billion, surpassing the IPO fundraising scale of HKD 123.564 billion, with the half-year post-listing fundraising nearly doubling last year's total [2] Group 2 - Placement has been the primary method for post-listing fundraising this year, with a total of HKD 156.985 billion raised, accounting for 95.5% of the total [4] - BYD and Xiaomi announced placement plans in March, raising HKD 43.509 billion and HKD 42.600 billion respectively, with proceeds aimed at R&D, overseas business development, and general corporate purposes [4] - Following their placements, both BYD and Xiaomi saw their stock prices continue to reach new highs, indicating market recognition of their growth potential [4] Group 3 - NIO raised HKD 4.03 billion through a placement in March for R&D and strengthening its balance sheet, but its stock price did not recover post-placement, reflecting market skepticism about its financial health and future prospects [8] - Robotics companies have also been active in fundraising, with several raising over HKD 1 billion, including Horizon Robotics and Fourth Paradigm [10] - Biotech companies, particularly those not yet profitable, are also seeking funds, with Innovent Biologics raising HKD 4.310 billion to support global expansion and pipeline development [10] Group 4 - Gold-related stocks have capitalized on rising gold prices to raise funds, with companies like Lao Pu Gold and Zhaojin Mining successfully completing fundraising while their stock prices continued to rise [11] - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant price increases for companies like Pop Mart and Mixue Group, raising questions about whether these companies will also pursue fundraising opportunities [12] - Investor sentiment towards fundraising activities is influenced by the company's fundamentals, the rationale behind the fundraising, and the overall market environment [12] Group 5 - Companies like Innovent Biologics that raised funds while their stock prices were high were viewed positively by investors, while others that saw stock price declines post-fundraising faced skepticism regarding their pipeline progress and capital efficiency [13] - Gold-related fundraising activities are seen as timely moves to expand capacity in a favorable market environment, creating a positive feedback loop between stock price and fundraising [13] - Investors are encouraged to consider the fundamentals and growth prospects of companies rather than making decisions based solely on short-term stock price fluctuations or fundraising activities [14]