黑色金属采选

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 数据点评 | 为何大宗涨价拉不起PPI?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
 申万宏源宏观· 2025-09-10 13:06
 Core Viewpoints - The upstream price increase has a positive contribution to PPI month-on-month, but the low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors continues to drag down PPI significantly [2][10][70] - In August, PPI showed marginal improvement, primarily driven by a notable rebound in commodity prices, with PPI month-on-month remaining at 0% [2][10][70] - The overall PPI month-on-month is 0%, mainly due to low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors, which prevents the full transmission of upstream price increases [2][10][70]   PPI Analysis - In August, coal and steel prices continued to rise, with coal mining (2.8%), black mining (2.1%), and black rolling (1.9%) showing month-on-month increases [2][10][70] - The international oil price decline negatively impacted domestic oil prices, with copper prices also contributing negatively to PPI [2][10][70] - The mid and downstream sectors are experiencing significant price reductions, with PPI declines in food and automotive sectors both at -0.3% [2][10][70]   CPI Analysis - In August, CPI year-on-year dropped to -0.4%, influenced by a high base and weak food prices, with food CPI down 4.3% [3][23][50] - The core CPI continues to expand, with core goods CPI rising 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from the third batch of national subsidies [3][29][71] - Core service CPI increased slightly, supported by summer travel and medical service reforms, while rental CPI remains weak due to high youth unemployment [4][33][62]   Future Outlook - Commodity prices may continue to rise, but the oversupply in the mid and downstream sectors may constrain the transmission of upstream price increases, leading to weak inflation throughout the year [4][41][72] - It is expected that by the end of the year, PPI year-on-year may recover to a maximum of -2.1% [4][41][72] - CPI is anticipated to remain negative in the third quarter, with a potential turnaround in the fourth quarter due to ongoing policies supporting service consumption and demand recovery [4][41][72]
 逾40亿元竞得锂矿后又有新动作 大中矿业瞄准新能源 斥资30亿元设立子公司
 Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 05:48
 Core Viewpoint - The company has made significant investments in lithium mining, establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Sichuan and successfully bidding for lithium mining rights, positioning itself for growth in the lithium sector amid increasing demand for lithium products in the new energy market [1][2][4].   Group 1: Company Developments - The company announced the establishment of Sichuan Dazhong He Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. with an investment of 3 billion yuan, aimed at developing high-quality lithium resources in Sichuan [1][2]. - The company successfully bid for the Jiada Lithium Mine exploration rights at a price of 4.206 billion yuan, significantly higher than the starting price of 3.19 million yuan, indicating strong market interest [2][3]. - The company has confirmed that it can pay the auction price in full without financial pressure, utilizing existing funds, cash flow from iron ore operations, and potential bank loans [3][4].   Group 2: Industry Context - The company operates in the black metal mining industry, primarily focusing on iron ore, but is diversifying into lithium mining to mitigate the cyclical nature of iron ore prices [4][5]. - The demand for lithium products is expected to grow due to the rapid development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, with lithium resources remaining in high demand [4][5]. - The company plans to leverage its existing technological and operational advantages in iron ore mining to enhance its lithium production capabilities, aiming for cost-effective and stable production [5].


