综合来看，油脂市场多空并存，首先，美国生物柴油政策暂提供着重要长期支撑，当前预计2026年美国 生柴掺混义务量大幅增长，对油脂油料板块整体产生了一定的下方支撑，还需要紧盯美国RVO终案落 地进展。对于菜系方面，中加关系缓和，我国菜系原料供应紧张的格局面临被打破的格局，目前的变量 在于美加关系对我国菜系原料进口的影响，如果不出现较大变数，近强远弱的格局或逐渐形成，菜系上 方的压制力量不容忽视。棕榈油方面，马来最新的1月高频产量数据出现一定回落，但出口数据的环比 收紧幅度并不尽如人意，未来产地库存去化的节奏仍需进一步观察，如果产量降幅持续扩大，对油脂价 格的提振或逐渐明确。节后市场来看，假期期间原油价格的上行以及生柴政策可能出现进展的乐观预期 导致国内油脂油料节后开盘表现偏强。但目前基本面多空交织，提振力量能否支撑其持续上行，我们需 要等待美国生物柴油政策提供的油脂需求的中长期支撑最终落地，以及棕榈油产地基本面环比明显收 紧，才能给油脂多头更多的底气。 免责声明 本报告基于已公开的信息编制，我们力求信息及时、准确、完整，但不保证信息的绝对准确和完整。本 报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。投资 ...

Group 1 - The oilseed market experienced a volatile week, initially rising due to macroeconomic factors but later declining as fundamental support weakened [3][11] - The recent surge in oilseed prices was driven by a favorable macro environment, including a drop in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions, but this rapid increase is seen as unsustainable [3][12] - The US biodiesel policy is becoming clearer, providing some bullish sentiment for the oilseed market, with the 45Z tax credit plan expected to be announced soon [4][12] Group 2 - Despite a positive macro backdrop, the rapid price increase in oilseeds has outpaced fundamental support, leading to increased volatility risks [4][12] - Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decrease, with estimates showing a reduction of 14.43% to 14.81% in early January, but the overall production remains historically high [5][13] - The palm oil market is facing pressure from high inventory levels and a lack of significant export growth, with January exports projected to be around 1.4 million tons [5][13] Group 3 - The Indonesian CPO reference price is expected to rise, potentially exceeding $930 per ton, which may lead to increased export taxes and support for palm oil prices [7][15] - The recent bullish trend in oilseeds is at risk of reversal due to the lack of substantial developments in US biodiesel policy and high palm oil inventories [7][15] - The market anticipates that the upcoming Ramadan and increased biodiesel policy news may provide support for oilseed prices in the medium to long term, with key support levels identified for soybean and palm oil [7][15]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance with significant declines in canola seed futures, while other oil futures experience slight increases or decreases in prices [1] Price Movements - As of January 13, 2023, the main futures prices are as follows: - Canola oil increased by 0.69% to 9033.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil increased by 1.85% to 8818.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal decreased by 0.29% to 2778.00 CNY/ton - Canola seed decreased by 5.93% to 5221.00 CNY/ton [1] - Opening and closing prices for various contracts on January 13, 2023, include: - Soybean oil: opened at 8008.00 CNY, closed at 7994.00 CNY - Palm oil: opened at 8746.00 CNY, closed at 8724.00 CNY - Canola oil: opened at 8974.00 CNY, closed at 8980.00 CNY - Soybean meal: opened at 2799.00 CNY, closed at 2790.00 CNY - Canola meal: opened at 2330.00 CNY, closed at 2330.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of January 12, 2023, warehouse receipts for various futures are reported as follows: - Soybean two futures: 400 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Soybean oil futures: 29197 contracts, decreased by 229 contracts - Soybean meal futures: 25410 contracts, unchanged - Palm oil futures: 1448 contracts, increased by 200 contracts - Soybean one futures: 25546 contracts, decreased by 260 contracts - Canola meal futures: 84 contracts, unchanged - Canola oil futures: 2292 contracts, increased by 130 contracts - Peanut futures: 1855 contracts, increased by 239 contracts [3] Basis Data - The basis data as of January 12, 2023, indicates the following: - Canola oil: spot price 9882 CNY, futures price 8971 CNY, basis 911 CNY, basis rate 9.22% - Canola meal: spot price 2460 CNY, futures price 2328 CNY, basis 132 CNY, basis rate 5.37% - Palm oil: spot price 8620 CNY, futures price 8658 CNY, basis -38 CNY, basis rate -0.44% - Soybean one: spot price 4455 CNY, futures price 4349 CNY, basis 106 CNY, basis rate 2.38% - Soybean meal: spot price 3186 CNY, futures price 2786 CNY, basis 400 CNY, basis rate 12.55% - Soybean oil: spot price 8348 CNY, futures price 7972 CNY, basis 376 CNY, basis rate 4.50% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The oilseed market is experiencing a return to weakness after a brief rebound, driven by a lack of supportive fundamentals and concerns over inventory levels, particularly in palm oil and soybean oil [2][15]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Analysis - MPOA's adjustment of November palm oil production and subsequent flooding speculation initially triggered a short-covering rally, but the market failed to sustain this momentum due to disappointing export figures leading to unexpected inventory accumulation of 2.84 million tons in November [2][16]. - High-frequency data indicates that palm oil production for December is expected to continue accumulating, with SPPOMA forecasting a 2.97% decrease in production for the first half of December compared to the previous month, which is significantly lower than the five-year average seasonal decline of 9.5% [5][19]. - The market anticipates that palm oil inventories could exceed 3 million tons in December, further suppressing bullish sentiment in the palm oil market [5][19]. Group 2: Soybean Oil Market Dynamics - The EPA's decision to delay the final rule for the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) until the first quarter of next year has created uncertainty in the U.S. soybean oil market, dampening buying enthusiasm [8][22]. - The U.S. soybean crushing volume has reached a record high of 642 million bushels from September to November, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, contributing to rising soybean oil inventories which reached 1.513 billion pounds at the end of November [8][22]. - The lack of clarity regarding biodiesel policies is expected to continue suppressing procurement activity at biodiesel plants, leading to further inventory pressure on soybean oil [12][26]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Overall, the oilseed market is characterized by a lack of bullish factors, with palm oil inventories at a record high and soybean oil facing increasing inventory pressures due to uncertain biodiesel policies [12][26]. - The focus for the short to medium term will be on palm oil's ability to reduce inventories and the pricing dynamics in the palm oil market, particularly in relation to Indian purchasing behavior and Indonesian palm oil pricing [12][26].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market experienced a mixed performance on August 26, with palm oil futures declining over 1% while peanut futures saw a slight increase of 0.31% [1] Price Movements - As of August 26, the main futures prices are as follows: - Palm oil down 1.14% at 9504.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal down 0.64% at 3090.00 CNY/ton - Rapeseed meal down 0.39% at 2549.00 CNY/ton - Peanut up 0.31% at 7802.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 25, warehouse receipt data indicates: - Soybean oil futures unchanged at 15760 contracts - Palm oil futures unchanged at 0 contracts - Rapeseed oil futures unchanged at 3987 contracts - Soybean meal futures unchanged at 10925 contracts - Rapeseed meal futures decreased by 187 contracts to 8101 contracts - Soybean futures decreased by 115 contracts to 12082 contracts [3] Basis and Basis Rate - The basis and basis rates for various commodities are as follows: - Rapeseed oil: Basis 116, Basis Rate 1.16% - Rapeseed meal: Basis 61, Basis Rate 2.33% - Palm oil: Basis 24, Basis Rate 0.25% - Soybean: Basis 302, Basis Rate 7.02% - Soybean meal: Basis 10, Basis Rate 0.32% - Soybean oil: Basis 96, Basis Rate 1.12% [4]

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a positive trend on June 16, with palm oil futures rising nearly 4% [1] - As of the latest data, palm oil futures increased by 3.76% to 8436.00 CNY/ton, while other oilseed futures like rapeseed meal and soybean oil also experienced price changes [1][2] Price Movements - Palm oil futures opened at 8170.00 CNY and closed at 8436.00 CNY, reflecting a significant increase [2] - Soybean oil futures rose by 2.57% to 7970.00 CNY, while rapeseed oil increased by 1.86% to 9476.00 CNY [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of June 13, soybean oil futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 17552 lots, while palm oil and rapeseed oil also showed no change [3] - A decrease was noted in warehouse receipts for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, with reductions of 81 lots and 60 lots respectively [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis for various oilseed contracts indicated a phenomenon of "inverted futures" where spot prices exceeded futures prices for rapeseed oil, palm oil, and soybean oil [3] - For instance, the basis for palm oil was 398 CNY, indicating a 4.67% basis rate, while soybean oil had a basis of 294 CNY, reflecting a 3.65% basis rate [4]

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed futures market experienced a mixed performance on May 23, with peanut futures declining over 1% [1] - The main peanut futures dropped by 1.17% to 8288.00 CNY/ton, while palm oil futures fell by 0.17% to 8018.00 CNY/ton [1] - Soybean meal futures increased by 0.75% to 2954.00 CNY/ton, while soybean futures saw a slight decrease of 0.36% to 4189.00 CNY/ton [1] Price Movements - The opening and closing prices for various oilseed futures on May 23 are as follows: - Soybean oil: opened at 7770.00 CNY, closed at 7760.00 CNY - Palm oil: opened at 7996.00 CNY, closed at 8032.00 CNY - Canola oil: opened at 9408.00 CNY, closed at 9388.00 CNY - Soybean meal: opened at 2944.00 CNY, closed at 2932.00 CNY - Canola meal: opened at 2563.00 CNY, closed at 2550.00 CNY - Soybean futures: opened at 4201.00 CNY, closed at 4204.00 CNY - Peanut: opened at 8350.00 CNY, closed at 8386.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of May 22, the warehouse receipt data for various oilseed futures showed: - Soybean oil: 14602 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Palm oil: 330 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Canola oil: 2121 contracts, decreased by 67 contracts - Soybean meal: 38311 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Canola meal: 28877 contracts, decreased by 2070 contracts - Soybean futures: 30136 contracts, decreased by 600 contracts - Peanut: 600 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various commodities are as follows: - Canola oil: spot price 9541.67 CNY, futures price 9388 CNY, basis 153 CNY, basis rate 1.60% - Canola meal: spot price 2510 CNY, futures price 2550 CNY, basis -40 CNY, basis rate -1.59% - Palm oil: spot price 8546 CNY, futures price 8032 CNY, basis 514 CNY, basis rate 6.01% - Soybean futures: spot price 4255 CNY, futures price 4204 CNY, basis 51 CNY, basis rate 1.20% - Soybean meal: spot price 2998 CNY, futures price 2932 CNY, basis 66 CNY, basis rate 2.20% - Soybean oil: spot price 8074 CNY, futures price 7760 CNY, basis 314 CNY, basis rate 3.89% [4]

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed market showed mixed performance on May 22, with canola meal futures rising over 1% while palm oil and soybean oil futures declined [1][2] Price Movements - Canola meal futures increased by 1.07% to 2554.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures decreased by 0.57% to 8058.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures fell by 0.44% to 7778.00 CNY/ton - Soybean futures dropped by 0.21% to 4197.00 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market Data - Soybean oil opened at 7810.00 CNY, closed at 7812.00 CNY - Palm oil opened at 8098.00 CNY, closed at 8104.00 CNY - Canola oil opened at 9436.00 CNY, closed at 9415.00 CNY - Soybean meal opened at 2936.00 CNY, closed at 2908.00 CNY - Canola meal opened at 2547.00 CNY, closed at 2527.00 CNY - Soybean one opened and closed at 4225.00 CNY - Soybean two opened and closed at 3565.00 CNY - Peanut opened at 8374.00 CNY, closed at 8364.00 CNY - Rapeseed opened at 5222.00 CNY, closed at 5216.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - Soybean oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 14602 contracts - Palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 330 contracts - Canola oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2188 contracts - Soybean meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 38311 contracts - Canola meal warehouse receipts decreased by 37 contracts to 30947 - Soybean one warehouse receipts increased by 500 contracts to 30736 - Soybean two warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 900 contracts - Peanut warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 600 contracts [3] Basis Data - Canola oil had a basis of 126 CNY with a basis rate of 1.32% - Canola meal had a basis of -42 CNY with a basis rate of -1.69% - Palm oil had a basis of 480 CNY with a basis rate of 5.59% - Soybean one had a basis of 49 CNY with a basis rate of 1.15% - Soybean meal had a basis of 78 CNY with a basis rate of 2.61% - Soybean oil had a basis of 262 CNY with a basis rate of 3.24% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils has shown a significant upward trend, with major increases in prices for various contracts as of May 21, indicating a bullish sentiment in the sector [1][2]. Price Movements - As of May 21, the main contracts for oilseeds and oils have experienced notable price increases: - Rapeseed meal rose by 1.40% to 2532.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal increased by 1.18% to 2913.00 CNY/ton - Soybean No. 1 went up by 0.79% to 4214.00 CNY/ton - Soybean No. 2 climbed by 0.91% to 3542.00 CNY/ton [1]. Futures Price Data - The opening and closing prices for various oilseed futures on May 21 are as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 7820.00 CNY, closed at 7796.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 8098.00 CNY, closed at 8076.00 CNY - Rapeseed oil: Opened at 9390.00 CNY, closed at 9389.00 CNY - Soybean meal: Opened at 2896.00 CNY, closed at 2879.00 CNY - Rapeseed meal: Opened at 2516.00 CNY, closed at 2497.00 CNY - Soybean No. 1: Opened at 4191.00 CNY, closed at 4181.00 CNY - Soybean No. 2: Opened at 3533.00 CNY, closed at 3510.00 CNY - Peanut: Opened at 8366.00 CNY, closed at 8308.00 CNY - Oilseed: Opened at 5152.00 CNY, closed at 5200.00 CNY [2]. Warehouse Receipt Data - As of May 20, the warehouse receipt data for various oilseed futures indicates: - Soybean oil: 14602 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Palm oil: 330 contracts, unchanged - Rapeseed oil: 2188 contracts, down by 2 - Soybean meal: 38311 contracts, unchanged - Rapeseed meal: 30984 contracts, down by 64 - Soybean No. 1: 30236 contracts, up by 653 - Soybean No. 2: 900 contracts, unchanged - Peanut: 600 contracts, down by 138 [3]. Basis and Basis Rate - The basis and basis rates for various commodities as of May 20 are as follows: - Rapeseed oil: Spot price 9520 CNY, futures price 9389 CNY, basis 131 CNY, basis rate 1.38% - Rapeseed meal: Spot price 2475 CNY, futures price 2497 CNY, basis -22 CNY, basis rate -0.89% - Palm oil: Spot price 8636 CNY, futures price 8076 CNY, basis 560 CNY, basis rate 6.48% - Soybean No. 1: Spot price 4255 CNY, futures price 4181 CNY, basis 74 CNY, basis rate 1.74% - Soybean meal: Spot price 2966 CNY, futures price 2879 CNY, basis 87 CNY, basis rate 2.93% - Soybean oil: Spot price 8074 CNY, futures price 7796 CNY, basis 278 CNY, basis rate 3.44% [4].

Core Insights - On April 25, the domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils saw significant increases, with palm oil and rapeseed oil rising over 2% [1] - As of the latest data, palm oil futures increased by 2.63% to 8428.00 CNY/ton, while rapeseed oil futures rose by 2.09% to 9564.00 CNY/ton [1] - Soybean meal futures decreased by 0.85% to 3029.00 CNY/ton, while soybean oil futures increased by 1.97% to 7988.00 CNY/ton [1] Price Movements - The opening and closing prices for various oilseed futures on April 25 are as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 7858.00 CNY, closed at 7834.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 8250.00 CNY, closed at 8212.00 CNY - Rapeseed oil: Opened at 9392.00 CNY, closed at 9368.00 CNY - Soybean meal: Opened at 3055.00 CNY, closed at 3055.00 CNY - Rapeseed meal: Opened at 2721.00 CNY, closed at 2713.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Data - As of April 24, the warehouse receipts for various oilseed futures were reported as follows: - Soybean oil: 3735 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Palm oil: 0 contracts, unchanged - Rapeseed oil: 2719 contracts, unchanged - Soybean meal: 10600 contracts, unchanged - Rapeseed meal: 1000 contracts, unchanged - Soybean one: 4545 contracts, an increase of 308 contracts - Peanut: 1500 contracts, unchanged [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various oilseed products are as follows: - Rapeseed oil: Spot price 9485 CNY, futures price 9368 CNY, basis 117 CNY, basis rate 1.23% - Palm oil: Spot price 9102 CNY, futures price 8212 CNY, basis 890 CNY, basis rate 9.78% - Soybean meal: Spot price 3596.67 CNY, futures price 3055 CNY, basis 541 CNY, basis rate 15.04% - Soybean oil: Spot price 8146 CNY, futures price 7834 CNY, basis 312 CNY, basis rate 3.83% [4]