Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' latest report analyzes the cyclical patterns of IP companies, stating that the typical popularity cycle for a single IP lasts 2-3 years, with platformization being a viable solution for sustainability [1][2] - The report identifies three typical stock price response patterns for IP companies based on their development stages: rapid growth, maturity, and diversification [1][5] Group 1: IP Cycle and Market Potential - The popularity cycle of single IPs generally lasts 2-3 years, as evidenced by examples like Lingna Belle and Kuromi in the Chinese market [2] - Companies with continuous content generation capabilities can extend their IP cycles beyond the typical duration [2] - The Chinese IP toy market shows significant potential, with per capita spending at 124 RMB (17 USD), which is only 1/17 of North America's and 1/4 of Japan's spending [12] Group 2: Stock Price Response Patterns - In the high-growth phase, stock price turning points often occur when high-frequency data shows signs of weakness, regardless of optimistic profit expectations [5] - In the maturity phase, stock price turning points align with downward revisions in profit expectations [5] - Companies with diversified business models are less affected by single IP cycles, demonstrating more resilient stock price performance [5] Group 3: Factors Influencing Sustainable Growth - Five key drivers for sustainable growth in IP companies include diverse product offerings, resource investment, monetization capabilities, customer interaction, and IP portfolio expansion [4][10] - Disney and Bandai are highlighted as exemplary companies in building comprehensive IP ecosystems, showcasing strong profitability resilience [4] Group 4: Bubble Mart Analysis - Goldman Sachs conducted a scenario analysis for Bubble Mart, suggesting that in the most optimistic scenario, long-term revenue potential could reach 81 billion RMB (11 billion USD), comparable to Lego's level [1][8] - The report maintains a neutral rating for Bubble Mart with a target price of 260 HKD, based on a 25x expected P/E ratio for 2027 [11] - Bubble Mart's growth is driven by both internal factors (product development, category expansion) and external factors (celebrity endorsements, rising emotional value demand) [8] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The rise of short video platforms and reduced content supply has created opportunities for non-content IPs [3] - The report emphasizes that establishing an IP platform is crucial for unlocking growth potential and achieving long-term success [11]

Group 1 - The investment rating for the industry is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] - The report highlights that the IP toy industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with the market size reaching 1,742 billion RMB in 2024, and IP toys accounting for over 43% of this market [2][60] - The report emphasizes the strong financial performance of the company, with projected revenue of 630 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.7% [1][26] Group 2 - The report identifies three core competitive advantages of the company: IP resources, channel coverage, and supply chain efficiency [3][36] - The company has established a unique competitive advantage system in the IP derivative market, creating a complete business loop through self-owned and authorized IP operations [3][36] - The report notes that the company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue projected to reach 147.4 million RMB in 2024, a 152% increase year-on-year [1][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the "Guzi Economy," which refers to the economic activities surrounding secondary cultural products, indicating a broad growth potential in this sector [2][36] - The report forecasts that the overall market size for IP derivatives will exceed 3,357 billion RMB by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of over 14% from 2024 to 2029 [60][64] - The report highlights that the core consumer group for IP toys is primarily under 35 years old, showing a strong interest and emotional connection to IP content [64][68]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic recovery by 2025 is revitalizing the Hong Kong stock market, with the IP toy industry being a focal point for capital market attention, highlighted by 52TOYS' IPO plans and valuation of 4.273 billion RMB [1][6]. Company Overview - 52TOYS, the third-largest IP toy company in China, has adopted an "IP hub" strategy since its brand launch in 2015, focusing on diverse consumer needs and extensive product development [1][3]. - The company has launched various product lines, including blind boxes and transformable mechas, and has developed its first original IP, "Beast Box" [3][12]. - As of 2024, 52TOYS has 35 proprietary IPs and 80 licensed IPs, with a total of 2,800 SKUs and over 500 new products introduced annually [3][12]. Financial Performance - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 shows growth from 462.9 million RMB to 630.1 million RMB, with a notable increase in sales cost and a fluctuating gross margin [10][11]. - The company reported a net loss of 1.22 billion RMB in 2024, with adjusted net profits showing a gradual improvement [12]. - The revenue structure is increasingly reliant on licensed IPs, which accounted for 64.5% of total revenue in 2024, while proprietary IPs contributed only 24.5% [12]. Market Position and Challenges - Despite its growth, 52TOYS faces challenges in creating blockbuster proprietary IPs comparable to competitors like Pop Mart's MOLLY [8][12]. - The company has seen a significant shift in its distribution strategy, reducing direct stores from 19 in 2022 to 5 by early 2025, while increasing reliance on distributors [12][14]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in overseas markets, where 52TOYS has seen over 100% CAGR in revenue since 2022 [13][14]. Strategic Partnerships - Recent strategic investments from Wanda Film and Ru Yi Holdings have increased 52TOYS' valuation and provided a 7% stake to these investors, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential [5][6]. - A strategic partnership with Wanda Film aims to leverage both companies' strengths in IP toy product development and marketing [6]. Future Outlook - The company's future success hinges on its ability to innovate and develop impactful proprietary IPs while navigating the competitive landscape of the global toy market [16][18]. - The ongoing global economic recovery is expected to enhance consumer demand for IP toys, presenting opportunities for growth [1][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the IP toy industry in China, focusing on the company Lezi Tiancheng (乐自天成) and its potential IPO amidst a rapidly growing market dominated by Bubble Mart and Blok. The company faces challenges in achieving profitability and creating blockbuster original IPs, which are crucial for its growth and market positioning [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Lezi Tiancheng is the third-largest IP toy company in China, with a market share of 1.2%, trailing behind Bubble Mart and Blok, which hold 11.5% and 5.7% market shares respectively [3]. - The company was founded in 2015 and has since developed a significant portfolio of IPs, including both licensed and original creations, with 35 original IPs by the end of 2024 [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Lezi Tiancheng's revenue from 2022 to 2024 shows a gradual increase, with figures of 4.63 billion, 4.82 billion, and 6.30 billion yuan respectively, but it has not yet achieved profitability, with net losses expanding from 1.7 million to 122 million yuan over the same period [3][5]. - The company relies heavily on licensed IPs for revenue, with licensed IP revenue increasing from 2.33 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.06 billion yuan in 2024, while revenue from original IPs has stagnated [5]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Growth Potential - Lezi Tiancheng has seen significant growth in its overseas market, with revenue increasing from 35.4 million yuan in 2022 to 147 million yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of over 100% [6]. - The company plans to allocate 25% of its IPO proceeds to expand its direct sales channels overseas, targeting markets in Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States [6][7]. - The management believes in its ability to compete in the global market, citing a threefold increase in GMV in Japan and a fourfold increase in Thailand in 2024 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company Lezi Tiancheng, a leading IP toy company in China, is seeking to go public in Hong Kong despite facing three consecutive years of losses and a significant liquidity gap of 590 million yuan [1][12]. Company Overview - Lezi Tiancheng ranks third in the Chinese IP toy market with a market share of 1.2% based on 2024 GMV, and it has a comprehensive operational model covering IP incubation, product design, flexible supply chain, and sales channels [1][11]. - The company reported revenues of 630 million yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.65% over the past three years, but has incurred pre-tax losses of 23 million yuan, 68 million yuan, and 116 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, indicating a trend of increasing losses [1][7]. Business Model - Lezi Tiancheng operates on a dual-driven model focusing on both proprietary IP and licensed IP, with 35 proprietary IPs and 80 licensed IPs successfully incubated and operated by the end of 2024 [2][3]. - The revenue from proprietary IP was 154 million yuan in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 8.14%, while licensed IP revenue reached 406 million yuan, with a CAGR of 32.12%, indicating a significant increase in the contribution of licensed IP to total revenue [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin has shown an upward trend, with gross margins of 28.9%, 40.5%, and 39.9% from 2022 to 2024. However, the company has faced continuous losses primarily due to non-recurring items, particularly the fair value changes of financial liabilities related to previous financing agreements [7][12]. - As of March 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 168 million yuan, with a net working capital deficit of 590 million yuan, but it has no interest-bearing debt [7][12]. Market Potential - The IP derivative market in China is projected to reach 1.742 trillion yuan in 2024, with the IP toy segment accounting for 756 billion yuan, representing over 40% of the market [8][11]. - The overseas market, particularly Southeast Asia, has shown significant growth potential, with Lezi Tiancheng's overseas revenue reaching 147 million yuan in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 105% over the past three years [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - The Chinese IP toy market is relatively fragmented, with the top ten players holding a combined market share of 46.1%. Lezi Tiancheng's competitors, such as Pop Mart, are actively expanding their overseas presence and diversifying their product offerings [11][12]. - The company has been increasing its investment in licensed IP, collaborating with well-known IPs like Crayon Shin-chan and Disney, which has contributed to its revenue growth [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - 52TOYS is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, positioning itself as a competitor in the IP toy market alongside established players like Pop Mart and Blok. The company aims to expand its physical presence and improve its financial performance despite current losses and reliance on licensed IPs [1][2][4]. Company Overview - 52TOYS was founded in 2015 and has positioned itself as a "collectible toy" company, differentiating itself from Pop Mart's focus on "trendy toys." The company offers over 2,800 SKUs across various categories, including static figures, action figures, and plush toys [2]. - The company has received multiple rounds of financing, totaling over 500 million RMB, with notable investors including Aushin Capital and Qiming Venture Partners [2]. Recent Developments - In May 2023, Wanda Film announced a 1.44 billion RMB investment in 52TOYS, acquiring a 7% stake. This move is seen as part of Wanda's strategy to diversify its revenue streams beyond box office sales [3]. - 52TOYS has launched several products in collaboration with popular films, such as "The Wandering Earth 2," which has garnered market attention [3]. Financial Performance - 52TOYS has faced challenges with increasing revenue but declining profitability. Revenue is projected to grow from 463 million RMB in 2022 to 630 million RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.7%. However, net losses are expected to widen from 1.71 million RMB to 12.2 million RMB during the same period [4][5]. - The company's adjusted net profit for 2023 and 2024 is forecasted to be 19.01 million RMB and 32.01 million RMB, respectively, indicating weak profitability [6]. Revenue Composition - The company heavily relies on licensed IPs, with over 64.5% of its revenue coming from licensed products by 2024. This dependency poses risks, as many core licenses are not exclusive and may face renewal challenges [9][10]. - 52TOYS has a limited number of proprietary IPs, with only 35 out of over 100 IPs contributing to just 24.5% of its revenue, highlighting a significant reliance on external licenses [7][9]. Market Position - In the competitive landscape of the IP toy market, 52TOYS holds a market share of only 1.2%, ranking third behind Pop Mart and Blok. The overall market for IP toys in China is projected to grow significantly, reaching 167.5 billion RMB by 2029 [11][12]. - The company faces intense competition from numerous players in the market, with over 20,800 related enterprises registered in China as of 2024 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Lezi Tiancheng Cultural Development Co., Ltd. (Lezi Tiancheng) has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Citigroup and Huatai International as joint sponsors [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Lezi Tiancheng is a leading IP toy company in China, owning over 100 proprietary and licensed IPs as of December 31, 2024 [2][3] - According to Zhi Shi Consulting, Lezi Tiancheng ranks second among multi-category IP toy companies in China by GMV for 2024, and third among all IP toy companies in the country [2] Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - The company is one of the few in the industry that operates a full industry chain, covering IP incubation and development, product design, flexible supply chain, and comprehensive sales channels [3] - Lezi Tiancheng employs a "central IP" strategy, multi-category operational capability, and full industry chain layout to continuously launch popular licensed IP products, including Crayon Shin-chan and Tom and Jerry [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024, Lezi Tiancheng reported revenues of approximately RMB 462.9 million, RMB 482.3 million, and RMB 630.1 million, respectively [4] - The company experienced net losses and total comprehensive expenses of RMB 1.7 million, RMB 71.9 million, and approximately RMB 121.5 million for the same periods [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with the North Stock 50 and Micro Stock Index reaching historical highs. The pet economy concept saw a collective surge, with companies like Yuanfei Pet and Yiyi Co. hitting the daily limit. The IP economy also strengthened, with companies such as Shifeng Culture and Haole Co. reaching the limit. Pharmaceutical stocks rose, with SanSheng Guojian and Huahai Pharmaceutical hitting the limit. M&A and restructuring stocks remained strong, while the shipping sector faced adjustments, with companies like Phoenix Shipping and Lianyungang hitting the limit down. Over 3,800 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing rose, with a total transaction volume of 1.21 trillion [1]. Hot Topics IP Economy / Guzi Economy - The Guzi economy sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Guobo Co., Chuangyuan Co., and Jinghua Laser hitting the daily limit. The catalyst for this surge was the historical high of Pop Mart's stock price in Hong Kong, with a market value approaching 300 billion [4][5]. - According to iiMedia Consulting, the market size of China's Guzi economy is expected to reach 168.9 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and is projected to exceed 200 billion by 2025. Compared to the US and Japan, the conversion rate of domestic IP in film and television is relatively low, indicating significant potential for growth in China's Guzi industry [5][6]. Pet Economy - The pet economy sector exploded again, with Yuanfei Pet and Tianyuan Pet achieving two consecutive daily limits, and Yiyi Co. hitting the limit. Other companies like Lusi Co., Ruipu Biological, and Petty Co. also saw significant increases. The catalyst for this growth is the upcoming 2025 Shanghai Pet Expo, which is expected to break historical records in terms of participants and transaction amounts [7][8]. - According to iiMedia Consulting, the domestic pet industry is projected to reach 811.4 billion this year, with expectations to surpass 1 trillion in two years [9]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw a significant rise, with SanSheng Guojian hitting the daily limit and other companies like Huahai Pharmaceutical and Weiming Pharmaceutical also reaching the limit. A key catalyst was SanSheng Pharmaceutical's announcement of a licensing agreement with Pfizer for its PD-1/VEGF dual-specific antibody SSGJ-707, which includes a $1.25 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion [10][11]. - The agreement marks a record for the amount of foreign licensing for Chinese innovative drugs in recent years, indicating an escalation in competition in the global PD-1/VEGF dual antibody market [10][11]. Other Active Sectors - Besides the highlighted sectors, asset restructuring, consumer goods, and domestic chips are also active. In contrast, the chemical, shipping, and military sectors experienced the most significant declines [12].

Core Viewpoint - Wanda Film aims to strengthen its IP derivative business through investment in related companies, particularly in the rapidly growing IP toy industry [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Details - Wanda Film's subsidiary, Beijing Yingshiguang E-commerce Co., plans to invest in Beijing Lezitiancheng Cultural Development Co., with a total investment of approximately 68.99 million yuan for 370,900 shares and 13.30 million yuan for new registered capital [2]. - After the transaction, Yingshiguang will hold 4% and Ru Yi Xingchen will hold 3% of Lezitiancheng, totaling 7% ownership [2]. Group 2: Strategic Cooperation - The collaboration between Wanda Film and Lezitiancheng will focus on the development and sale of IP toy products, marketing, and other related areas, leveraging each other's strengths for mutual benefit [2][3]. - Wanda Film recognizes the rapid growth of the IP toy industry and the expanding consumer base, highlighting the potential of 52TOYS' diverse IP and product categories [2]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy - Post-transaction, Wanda Film aims to enhance its non-ticket revenue and share in the investment brand valuation increase, contributing to capital appreciation [3]. - The company plans to continue strengthening its IP derivative business, expanding its IP copyright pool, and enhancing content copyright operations, while actively collaborating with leading copyright holders [3]. - Wanda Film focuses on industry chain synergy and quality IP, using the "Time in" platform to cultivate growth-oriented consumer brands and explore new consumption sectors [3].