产业经济周报 证券分析师 陈梦洁 资格编号：S0120524030002 邮箱：chenmj3＠tebon.com.cn 周天昊 资格编号： S0120525040002 邮箱：zhouth＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 产业经济周报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 [Table_Main] 消费焕新延续，液冷赋能数据中心， 折叠屏或打开成长空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：近期产业趋势延续分化格局：新消费板块热度持续传导至 A 股，短期 或受中报扰动出现阶段性调整，中长期主线仍在情绪消费、渠道革新及品牌出海； 高端制造方面，液冷技术成为应对算力与能耗矛盾的关键路径，具备提升效率与降 低能耗的双重价值；硬科技领域，折叠屏手机在价格下探与苹果入局的催化下，有 望带动渗透率提升并利好上游供应链。整体看，消费升级与科技迭代共振，产业机 遇与结构性机会并存。 高端制造看点：数据中心作为现代信息基础设施，其能源消耗问题日益凸显。伴随 人工智能、大数据及云计算等应用加速渗透，能耗持续攀升，对环境与经济均形成 压力，行业可持续发展需求不断增强 ...

跨境出海 周度市场观察 行业环境 头部品牌动态 投资运营 产品技术 营销活动 Industry Trends 本周看点： 国产创新药具备全球竞争力，出海正盛； 中国品牌如何从"性价比"走向"心价比"； 韧性凸显！跨境电商如何重新定义"出海"。 行业环境： 1. 2025年医药行业专题报告：国产创新药具备全球竞争力，出海正盛 关键词：创新药,政策改革,集采,研发费用,源头创新 概要：中国创新药产业正从"仿制"转向"创新"，政策推动是关键。2015年药政改革和2018 年集采政策倒逼药企转型，研发投入激增，创新药管线规模跃居全球前列。头部企业如恒瑞医 药创新药营收占比显著提升。中国FIC药物十年间占比从9%增至31%，泽布替尼等产品疗效国 际领先，出海分为三阶段：1）对外授权（License-out）为主，交易规模和技术多样性提升；2） 自主出海，通过国际临床或"NewCo模式"拓展；3）全球化销售，百济神州率先实现海外营 收突破。美国市场因定价优势成为重点，中国创新药全球竞争力显著增强，BD热潮将持续。 原文链接：http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2025- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][52]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is seeing a recovery in export performance due to the recent suspension of tariffs, which is expected to stabilize orders for companies with overseas production capacity [4][13]. - Sanrio's performance has exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in its IP toy business globally, particularly in China and North America [5][14]. - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in domestic sales due to relaxed real estate policies, while exports are also showing signs of improvement [6][15]. Summary by Sections Textile and Apparel - Key textile companies have reported mixed mid-year results, with Jian Sheng Group achieving total revenue of 1.171 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.19%, but a net profit decline of 14.46% [3][12]. - Huali Group reported a total revenue of 12.661 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, but a net profit decline of 11.42% due to new factory ramp-up affecting gross margins [3][12]. Light Industry Manufacturing - Sanrio's FY26Q1 revenue reached 43.1 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 49.1%, with operating profit up 88.0% and net profit up 37.8% [5][14]. - Sanrio has revised its FY2026 guidance upwards, projecting revenue of 168.8 billion yen, operating profit of 67.3 billion yen, and net profit of 47.5 billion yen [5][14]. Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are expected to improve as real estate policies are relaxed, with increased housing loan support [6][15]. - July home furnishing exports showed a recovery, reaching 4.88 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [6][15].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs report indicates that the Chinese IP toy market is likely to experience stronger driving factors from both supply and demand sides [1] - Compared to developed markets like North America and Japan, spending on IP in China remains relatively small, suggesting significant growth potential [1] - Demand-side drivers include the emotional value customers assign to IP and the accessibility of media channels that attract a broader audience [1] - On the supply side, a diverse range of IP materials will help expand the customer base [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that well-designed products and category expansion provide a vehicle for monetizing IP [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index unchanged [1][2] - Sectors such as rail transit equipment, photovoltaic, and gaming showed strong gains, while digital currency, oil and gas, and precious metals sectors experienced declines [1] Sector Analysis - According to Everbright Securities, the market is undergoing an overall adjustment, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have led to a decline in the Asia-Pacific stock markets. However, the oil and gas sector saw gains despite the overall market downturn [3] - The report from CICC indicates that the global IP (Intellectual Property) and its derivative products industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with the global IP toy market projected to reach 525.1 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 8% from 2024 to 2029. The Chinese IP toy market is expected to reach 75.6 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 17.2% during the same period [4] - Galaxy Securities emphasizes that investment in the white goods sector should focus on the stability of company performance, while the black goods sector presents opportunities due to improved global competitiveness. The clean appliance sector is expected to benefit from industry consolidation, and AI and robotics technologies are anticipated to introduce attractive new smart products [5] Economic Outlook - Tianfeng Securities notes that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in June aligns with market expectations, but the likelihood of a rate cut in September remains low. The Fed is expected to adopt a cautious approach due to uncertainties surrounding government policies and inflation risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - The IP industry chain is experiencing significant value concentration at both ends, with high premium on upstream IP licensing and over 60% profit margin on limited edition sales downstream, while the midstream manufacturing segment generally has lower profits [1][2]. Group 1: IP Industry Overview - The IP economy, centered around intellectual property, transforms intangible cultural assets into diverse products and services across various fields, including film, gaming, animation, cultural products, and consumer goods [2]. - The Chinese潮玩 market was valued at 600 billion yuan in 2023 and is projected to reach 1,101 billion yuan by 2026, indicating robust growth in domestic IP [3]. Group 2: IP Ecosystem and Lifecycle Extension - The construction of an "IP ecosystem" is an effective strategy for extending the lifecycle of IP, utilizing diverse platforms such as film, animation, games, and derivative products to maximize and sustain IP value [3]. - The IP value composite index shows that 76% of the top 50 IPs are based on original film types or have undergone film adaptations, while 76% of literary IPs have been adapted into animation, primarily in fantasy and science fiction genres [3]. Group 3: Policy and Market Potential - Government policies are promoting the development and consumption of IP culture, encouraging the integration of traditional Chinese culture into product design and supporting the development of original IP brands [4]. - The Chinese IP toy market is relatively fragmented, with the top five companies holding a combined market share of 20.8%, indicating strong potential for growth [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch in the IP economy include Yuanlong Yatu, Zhongwen Online, Aofei Entertainment, Light Media, Kaiying Network, Giant Network, Zhangyue Technology, and Xinghui Entertainment, as they are expected to show significant sales changes and extend the lifecycle of various IP carriers [5].

Core Viewpoint - 52TOYS is attempting to capitalize on the growing trend of collectible toys but faces significant challenges due to its reliance on non-exclusive licensed IPs and a weak direct sales channel compared to competitors like Pop Mart and Blokus [2][8]. Group 1: Company Positioning and Market Comparison - 52TOYS has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage the current popularity of collectible toys [2]. - The company claims to be the "third largest IP toy company" by GMV, but its market share is only 1.2%, significantly lower than Pop Mart's 11.5% and Blokus's 7.5% [7][10]. - Despite its positioning as an IP operator, 52TOYS lacks a strong portfolio of proprietary IPs, relying heavily on licensed IPs, which are mostly non-exclusive [4][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - 52TOYS's revenue from licensed IPs is projected to grow from 233 million RMB in 2022 to 406 million RMB in 2024, increasing its share of total revenue from 50.2% to 64.5% [4][5]. - The company's total revenue is expected to rise from 463 million RMB in 2022 to 630 million RMB in 2024, yet it has been operating at a loss, with losses increasing from 1.71 million RMB to 12.2 million RMB over the same period [8][9]. - The company has spent over 100 million RMB on IP licensing fees in the past three years, which has negatively impacted its gross margin [6]. Group 3: Sales and Distribution Channels - 52TOYS has reduced its number of direct retail stores from 19 in 2022 to only 5 currently, relying more on distributors for sales [10]. - Approximately 66.8% of the company's revenue comes from sales through distributors, while direct sales account for only 30.9% [10]. - The company's strategy of reducing direct retail presence indicates a weaker brand influence in the market [10].

Core Viewpoint - 52TOYS, a Chinese IP toy company, is preparing to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to replicate the success of companies like Pop Mart and Blokus [1]. Group 1 - 52TOYS has a market capitalization exceeding 2 billion HKD and annual revenue surpassing 600 million HKD [1].

Group 1: Beverage Industry Insights - The beverage manufacturing sector is showing strong performance, with companies like Kuaijishan and Quanyangquan hitting their daily price limits, while Knight Dairy and Huanlejia also saw gains [1] - New-style beverage stocks are actively engaging consumers, with Kuaijishan achieving over 10 million yuan in sales within 12 hours during the 618 promotion, with over 40% of buyers aged 18-35 [3][2] - The new-style beverage concept emphasizes natural high-quality ingredients and focuses on taste, health, and personalization, aligning with modern consumer trends [2] Group 2: Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods are expected to rebound significantly in 2025, following a contraction period, driven by local debt resolution efforts that will particularly benefit sectors like gold and silver jewelry, clothing, and cosmetics [1] - Multiple securities firms have recently held strategy meetings focused on the consumption sector, indicating a growing interest among investors, with beauty and personal care leading in performance [1] Group 3: Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is emerging as a solution to urban traffic congestion, utilizing eVTOL aircraft for rapid commuting and emergency response [3] - Low-altitude vehicles, including helicopters and drones, are being deployed effectively in disaster relief scenarios, enhancing rescue efficiency and survival rates [3] - The low-altitude economy encompasses various high-tech fields, including aircraft manufacturing and aviation electronics, indicating significant growth potential for related industries [3] Group 4: Toy Market Analysis - In 2024, the Chinese IP toy market is projected to rank third in GMV, with a market share of approximately 1.2%, following Pop Mart and Blokus [5] - 52TOYS has a diverse collection of toys and a higher male demographic compared to Pop Mart, focusing on licensed IP and collectible toys [5] - The reliance on licensed IP and distribution channels may limit 52TOYS' profitability and growth speed, despite its differentiated positioning in the market [5]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the ChiNext Index declining while the North Securities 50 Index rose significantly [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index slightly fell by 0.05% to 3346.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.41% to 10091.16 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets was 1034 billion, a decrease of nearly 150 billion from the previous day [2] Nuclear Power Sector - The nuclear power concept saw a significant surge, with stocks like Ruichi Intelligent Manufacturing, Jinlihua Electric, and Hahan Huaton hitting the daily limit [3] - Changfu Co. rose over 16%, reaching a new high during the session [3] - China Nuclear Technology and China General Nuclear Power Technology also hit the daily limit [3] IP Economy - The IP economy concept was active, with stocks such as Yuanwanggu, Laisentongling, Jinghua Laser, Laiyifen, and Shifeng Culture all hitting the daily limit [8] - The launch of the first official store of the independent jewelry brand POPOP under Pop Mart is set for May 30 [9] - 52TOYS, a leading IP toy company, has submitted its IPO prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9][10] BYD Performance - BYD's stock experienced a significant drop of approximately 6%, closing at 381 yuan per share, falling below the 400 yuan mark [11] - The company recently launched a major promotional campaign with discounts of up to 53,000 yuan on various models [12] - Analysts suggest that the new round of purchase incentives from leading automakers like BYD may stimulate industry demand [12]