中金研究院 中金研究院（CICC Global Institute，缩写CGI）作为中金公司一级部门，定位为新时代、新形势下的新型智 库，服务于中国公共政策研究与决策，参与国际政策讨论和交流，并为中国金融市场尤其是资本市场发展建言 献策；研究院致力于打造研究中国和全球经济、金融和资本市场中长期发展重大问题的能力和团队，对涉及国 计民生的重大课题进行前瞻性研究，并通过研究咨询、主题论坛、国际交流、系列讲座等形式为政府、企业及 相关机构提供服务。 中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人彭文生博士担任中金研究院院长，中金公司研究部执行负责人、ESG办 公室负责人吴慧敏博士担任执行院长。 以下文章来源于中金研究院 ，作者CGI 中金研究院 . 中金研究院 (CICC Global Institute，缩写 CGI)作为中金公司一级部门，定位为新时代、新形势下的新型智库，服务 于中国公共政策研究与决策，参与国际政策讨论和交流，并为中国金融市场尤其是资本市场发展建言献策。 CGI公开讲座（CGI Open Lecture） ｜本系列由中金研究院主办，邀请全球经济、金融与数字领域的权威 学者与专家，分享其深刻洞察与前沿研究成果 ...

来源：申万宏源承销保荐 未来，申万宏源将继续秉持实干笃行的精神，努力建设成为一流现代投资银行，在赋能企业创新 与成长的同时，为国家经济的高质量发展注入更多金融活力和专业力量。 11月21日，2025第一财经金融价值年会（CFV）在上海举行，申万宏源承销保荐荣获2025第 一财经金融价值年会 "投行服务机构TOP10" 。 ...

高盛的评论反映出市场的忧虑：日本长期国债收益率可能再度大幅攀升，与今年早些时候因财政担忧导 致日本国债波动并外溢至全球市场的情形类似。日本首相高市早苗已释放更激进的财政信号，称其首个 刺激计划将成为推动新投资和增长的跳板。 日媒近日报道，政府正在考虑为本财年追加约14万亿日元预算，规模将超过去年的13.9万亿日元。 新华财经北京11月17日电高盛表示，随着投资者开始担忧日本推出的刺激规模可能大于预期，日本的财 政风险溢价正在回归，这将给长期国债和日元带来压力。 策略师指出，市场越来越担心日本政府可能会放弃其"年度预算收支平衡"承诺以及长期财政目标。高盛 称："即便最终结果没有想象中那么极端，但市场对财政问题的敏感度明显上升，这意味着任何通往最 终缓和的道路都可能是颠簸的。" （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations, despite potential year-end volatility. No signals of a bull market peak have been observed, and an overweight position is recommended [1] Summary by Category Chinese Stocks - The outlook for Chinese stocks remains positive due to the influence of AI technology and liquidity conditions, suggesting a continued overweight position [1] US Stocks - Similar bullish logic applies to US stocks; however, concerns about high valuations and low elasticity during the US dollar depreciation cycle suggest a neutral position is more appropriate [1] Interest Rates and Bonds - There is potential for further decline in the central interest rate in China, but the valuation of Chinese bonds is considered high, limiting upside potential, thus a lower allocation is advised [1] - US Treasury bonds are expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, but face mid-term inflation and debt risks, leading to a neutral allocation recommendation [1] Commodities - Commodities are seen as a hedge against risks associated with changes in gold and stock trends, with a recommendation to adjust from underweight to neutral allocation [1] Gold - Gold is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and the restructuring of monetary order, but its valuation is considered high. An overweight position is recommended, with advice to avoid chasing prices and to increase allocation on dips [1]

Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold by 2026, including economic growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [1][2]. Group 1: Key Factors - **Economic Growth Shift**: Current weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation in the U.S. could change if policies lead to better-than-expected economic recovery, which may extend the stock bull market but negatively impact gold [1]. - **Tightening Policies**: Both China and the U.S. are currently in a loose policy environment. However, if the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, or if China's incremental policy pace slows, it could negatively affect both stock and gold bull markets [1]. - **High Valuations**: Chinese stocks are reasonably valued, but both gold and U.S. stocks are facing high valuation pressures, which could pose risks [1]. - **Geopolitical Shocks**: Unexpected geopolitical events could prolong the gold bull market but may adversely affect the stock bull market [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - **Asset Allocation**: The company recommends an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold, a standard allocation in U.S. stocks and bonds, and an adjustment of commodities to standard allocation while reducing Chinese bonds to underweight [2][3]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Benefiting from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, Chinese stocks are seen as having reasonable valuations. Despite potential year-end volatility, there are no signals indicating a market peak, thus maintaining an overweight position is advised [3]. - **U.S. Stocks**: While the bullish logic applies to U.S. stocks, concerns over high valuations and low elasticity during a dollar depreciation cycle suggest a standard allocation is more prudent [3]. - **Commodities**: Commodities are recommended to be adjusted to standard allocation as they can hedge against changes in gold and stock trends while benefiting from post-liquidity recovery [3]. - **Gold**: Gold is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and monetary order reconstruction, but due to high valuations, an overweight position is suggested with a focus on buying on dips rather than chasing prices [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the overall valuation of A-shares is relatively reasonable and not overvalued [1] - As of November 4, 2025, the P/E TTM of the CSI 300 is approximately 14.2 times, compared to 25.5 times for the S&P 500, 23.8 times for the Nikkei 225, 19.3 times for the French CAC 40, 17.4 times for the MSCI Asia-Pacific, and 17.2 times for the German DAX, indicating that A-share valuations remain low in an international comparison [1] - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 is about 2.5%, which is attractive compared to the approximately 1.8% yield of ten-year government bonds [1] - The market capitalization of A-shares relative to China's GDP is about 77%, which is low compared to other major global markets, such as approximately 230% for the U.S. and 180% for Japan [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares to M2 ratio is approximately 35.6%, close to the historical average of 35.7%, suggesting a "repair" in valuation rather than overvaluation [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that Chinese stock assets face a historical opportunity due to the global monetary system's restructuring, with asset revaluation potentially still in its early stages [2] - The restructuring of the global monetary order may prompt global funds to reallocate in two ways: diversification, where investors seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar, and fragmentation, where previously globally allocated funds return to their respective markets [2] - If policies are appropriately addressed, the international status of the renminbi is expected to improve, and renminbi assets may benefit from the global fund reallocation [2] - The forces of the global monetary order's restructuring and the resulting changes in capital flows may outweigh the fundamental strengths of any single country or market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of professional services in creating value and aims to establish itself as a trusted top-tier investment bank and investment institution [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections - The article highlights the commitment to providing professional services that generate value for clients, reinforcing the goal of becoming a long-term trusted partner in the investment banking sector [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a significant economic divergence in the U.S. by 2025, with traditional industries like manufacturing and real estate facing pressures from tariffs and immigration policies, while the technology sector, driven by AI, experiences robust capital expenditure growth [1][2]. Economic Challenges - The U.S. economy will face two main challenges: supply-side pressures from tariff increases and a slowdown in population growth, which will impact labor supply and demand in housing and consumption sectors [2][3]. - The impact of tariffs on the economy is expected to continue into 2026, as companies that previously imported goods to avoid tariffs will see this buffer effect diminish, leading to increased supply cost pressures [2][3]. AI Investment Cycle - The contribution of AI to economic growth is becoming more apparent, primarily through substantial capital expenditures. However, as investment scales up, the marginal efficiency of capital is likely to decline, resulting in a slowdown of investment growth and a reduced impact on GDP growth in 2026 compared to 2025 [3][4]. - Other demand sectors are also expected to cool down, with the real estate market undergoing active destocking and construction investment declining after policy subsidies taper off [3]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation is anticipated to exhibit stickiness, with core goods still having room for price increases due to tariff impacts. Rent inflation is expected to continue its current slowdown, while non-rent service prices remain resilient due to structural demand and labor costs [3][4]. - Consumer inflation expectations may rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve its targets [3]. Policy Perspective - Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to marginally loosen, but the overall stimulative effect may be limited. The fiscal deficit expansion from Trump's "Great American Plan" will be partially offset by tariff revenues [4]. - The Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates due to a slowing job market, but will be cautious about significant easing due to persistent inflation concerns. A cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is projected for 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3%-3.25% [4]. Economic Growth Forecast - The forecast for U.S. real GDP growth in 2026 is 1.7%, with the first half of the year facing downward pressure from tariffs and immigration policies, while the second half may see improvement due to fiscal and monetary support [4]. - Upside risks include a potential easing of trade and geopolitical tensions, while downside risks stem from a weakening job market, increased volatility in AI profitability, and inflation pressures exceeding expectations [4].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs, founded in 1869, is the world's second-largest investment bank by revenue [1] - The company is ranked 55th on the Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue [1] Company Overview - Goldman Sachs has a long history, being established in 1869 [1] - It holds a significant position in the investment banking industry, recognized for its substantial revenue generation [1]

Core Insights - State Street (STT) stock has increased by 20% this year and is expected to report strong Q3 results on October 17, 2023 [1] - The company has reached an all-time high in assets under management (AUM) exceeding $5 trillion, positioning it as the fourth largest global asset manager [2] - Strategic acquisitions and operational efficiencies, including a recent acquisition of Mizuho Financial Group's offshore custody business, have significantly contributed to State Street's growth [5][6] Financial Performance - Q3 sales are projected to rise by 4% to $3.47 billion, with earnings expected to increase by 16% to $2.62 per share [8] - State Street has consistently surpassed earnings per share (EPS) estimates for nine consecutive quarters, with an average surprise of 6.58% over the last four quarters [8][9] - EPS revisions for FY25 and FY26 have trended higher, with FY25 EPS expected to increase by 15% to $9.99 and FY26 EPS projected to rise by 13% to $11.26 [10][11] Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Mizuho's offshore custody business added approximately $580 billion in assets under custody and $24 billion in assets under administration, enhancing State Street's global presence [6] - The company achieved a 500 basis point improvement in operational efficiency through AI and automation, despite a $100 million increase in workforce costs [7] Valuation and Dividends - State Street's stock is valued at a reasonable forward P/E of 11X, compared to higher valuations of BlackRock and Goldman Sachs [11] - The company offers a generous annual dividend yield of 2.91%, significantly above the S&P 500 average of 1.11% and the broader Zacks Finance sector's 1.88% [13]