中金公司 景气跃迁：量化视角下的盈利预测与"预期差" 挖掘 20250710 摘要 量化景气投资侧重广度，通过预测股票利润增长排名而非具体数值，以 实现投资收益。理想化测试表明，准确预测 ROE 变化并持仓排名靠前的 股票能带来超额收益，验证了该方法的可行性。 基于财务信息，当期业绩高增长的股票有较高概率延续高增长，但存在 业绩变脸风险。通过引入加速度概念，即增速的变化，可以优化模型， 提高预测准确性并降低风险。 二次趋势外推模型通过考虑利润增速和加速度，在预测胜率（72%）和 假阳性率（13%）方面均优于线性外推和分析师一致预期，显著改善了 盈利预测效果。 "成长趋势共振选股策略"结合优化后的盈利预测模型、分析师预期、估 值和现金流等因子，选取约 30 支股票，自 2009 年回测以来表现优异， 并在样本外跟踪中持续实现超额收益。 引入机器学习方法，特别是 XGBoost 和 LightGBM 等树模型，能处理 更多维度数据并捕捉非线性关系，显著提升盈利预测的准确性，胜率可 达 85%，假阳性率降至 4.7%。 Q&A 景气型投资的传统思路是什么？ 景气型投资是一种主流的机构化投资思路，传统上更多依赖于基本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between CICC Chairman Chen Liang and Qatari officials focused on the latest trends in capital markets and potential areas for collaboration, emphasizing the importance of bilateral investment between China and Qatar [1] Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - CICC and Qatari officials discussed the latest developments in capital markets and various business cooperation opportunities [1] - A consensus was reached to promote comprehensive cooperation across multiple fields and enhance financial market connectivity between China and Qatar [1] - The parties expressed a commitment to guide enterprises from both regions in engaging in mutual investments [1]

Evercore (EVR) could be a solid choice for investors given the company's remarkably improving earnings outlook. While the stock has been a strong performer lately, this trend might continue since analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for the company.The upward trend in estimate revisions for this investment bank reflects growing optimism of analysts on its earnings prospects, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends ...

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1][2]. Company Overview: Evercore (EVR) - Evercore currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics [3]. - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), which historically outperforms the market when combined with a Style Score of A or B [4]. Performance Metrics - Over the past week, Evercore's shares increased by 1.84%, outperforming the Zacks Financial - Investment Bank industry, which rose by 1.49% [6]. - In a longer timeframe, Evercore's shares have risen by 32.28% over the past three months and 36.33% over the past year, while the S&P 500 only increased by 6.01% and 13.18%, respectively [7]. - The average 20-day trading volume for Evercore is 493,485 shares, indicating a bullish sign with rising stock prices [8]. Earnings Outlook - In the last two months, two earnings estimates for Evercore have been revised upwards, with no downward revisions, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $9.67 to $11.41 [10]. - For the next fiscal year, two estimates have also moved upwards, with no downward revisions during the same period [10]. Conclusion - Given the strong performance metrics and positive earnings outlook, Evercore is positioned as a 1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A, making it a compelling investment option [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - UP Fintech Holding Limited (TIGR) is currently viewed as a more attractive investment option compared to Tradeweb Markets (TW) based on valuation metrics and earnings estimate revisions [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - TIGR has a forward P/E ratio of 14.40, significantly lower than TW's forward P/E of 40.80 [5]. - The PEG ratio for TIGR is 0.76, indicating better value relative to its expected earnings growth compared to TW's PEG ratio of 2.31 [5]. - TIGR's P/B ratio stands at 2.21, while TW's P/B ratio is higher at 5.01, suggesting that TIGR is undervalued compared to TW [6]. Analyst Outlook - TIGR holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive analyst outlook, while TW has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The stronger estimate revision activity for TIGR suggests a more favorable earnings outlook compared to TW [7]. Value Grades - TIGR has been assigned a Value grade of B, reflecting its attractive valuation metrics, whereas TW has received a Value grade of F, indicating it is considered overvalued [6].

Core Viewpoint - CICC Global Institute (CGI) serves as a new type of think tank under CICC, focusing on public policy research and decision-making in China, while also engaging in international policy discussions and providing recommendations for the development of China's financial and capital markets [1][7]. Group 1: Conference Agenda - The conference features a series of sessions including a welcome speech by Dr. Peng Wensheng, Chief Economist of CICC, and keynote speeches from various experts in rural economy and social sciences [2][3]. - The agenda includes thematic roundtables discussing urban-rural labor market changes and the equalization of basic public services in rural areas, featuring prominent scholars and practitioners [3]. Group 2: CICC Global Institute's Role - CGI aims to build capabilities and teams to research significant long-term issues in the Chinese and global economy, finance, and capital markets, addressing major topics that impact national and public welfare [7]. - The institute provides services through research consulting, thematic forums, international exchanges, and a series of lectures aimed at government, enterprises, and related institutions [7].

以下文章来源于中金研究院 ，作者CGI 中金研究院 . 中金研究院 (CICC Global Institute，缩写 CGI)作为中金公司一级部门，定位为新时代、新形势下的新型 智库，服务于中国公共政策研究与决策，参与国际政策讨论和交流，并为中国金融市场尤其是资本市场 发展建言献策。 乡村，是理解当代中国经济与社会发展的原点。 五年来，中金研究院跨越全国21省58县149个乡镇，走进300多个村庄，用脚步丈量土地，用纸笔 记录变迁。 数字化对乡村影响大，但谈不上结构性变化。它主要体现在产业数字化，销售渠道改变；还有数字治理，通过 村民群等方式实现治理，未来村庄概念变得模糊。另外，数字化生活渗透强，像抖音、快手等平台，农民尤其 是老年农民是主要用户，乡村风俗等内容成为他们精神生活和文化意义的重要源头。 Q 乡愁过去是少数人的专属，现在随着城市化推进，乡愁又有什么新变化和意义？ 现在乡愁扩大到全社会，十四亿人都有乡愁。过去是精英有乡愁，现在大多数人离开家乡后都有乡愁。通过数 字平台等，乡愁可能成为精神依托，对维持乡村秩序、社会稳定很重要，是深层文化基础和价值理念。 今年在研究基础上，中金研究院推出 《田野对谈》 ...

II II II 你值得长期信赖的一流投资银行与投资机构 2025年1月1日至12月31日 约定年化收益率 先到先得 额度有限 · 参与方式 · 活动期间，下载并登录申万宏源申财有道APP 的"牛友"，可领取以下权益: 牛友专享 "新"享专属理财 创造价值 投资之路千万里 理财收获第一金 质押式报价回购 新客理财权益 牛友专享 "新"享投顾服务 专业护航 股海搏击专业助力 享投顾服务体验权 投顾服务 价值398元/月的标准化投顾服务 3个月体验权 价值1194元体验权 注:满足适当性要求的客户可领取投顾服务体验权 牛友专享 "新"享特色指标 辅助决策 业内专家自主研发 增值指标诚邀体验 三大特色指标 狙击电波 | 财富阶梯 | 神奇九转 体验权各1个月 价值336元体验权 牛友专享 "新"享深度行情 体验Level-2 实战必备 唯快不破 送Level-2深度行情 Level-2 沪深A股Level-2 | 港股行情Level-2 3个月体验权 研究所专家解盘 | 每日市场综述 | 月度 大势 | 大类资产配置 | ETF专栏 | 北交 所来了 | 理财宝典 | 投资学堂 | ... "新"BUFF Leve ...

中金公司研报称，5月12日，中美发布联合声明，自5月14日下调关税，双方并暂停实施对彼此的24%关 税税率90天，其余所谓的"对等关税"则全部取消。近期高频贸易数据显示，中国到美国的航运价格上涨 较快，而中国到欧洲的航运价格平稳，这可能反映关税下调后短期出口回暖现象。航运量数据还未出现 明显的增长，但是在港集装箱船数量、集装箱船预订量这些领先指标已开始反映短期对美出口有回暖迹 象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has demonstrated resilient performance in a volatile market environment, outperforming the broader S&P 500 index [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Goldman Sachs is identified as a leading large-cap US investment bank [1]. - The firm has successfully navigated a challenging year for markets, indicating strong operational capabilities [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus is on identifying high-quality companies with strong balance sheets and shareholder-friendly policies [1]. - A disciplined approach to valuation is emphasized, alongside a mix of quantitative and qualitative measures to uncover underappreciated opportunities [1].