Investors might want to bet on Bilibili (BILI) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.The power of a changing earnings ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for FY25E is projected at Rmb27.245 billion, down 7% from FY24A[2] - Net profit for FY25E is expected to be Rmb104 million, a significant decline of 93% compared to FY24A[2] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is forecasted to decrease to 21.0% in FY25E from 24.9% in FY24A[2] Membership and Revenue Streams - Membership revenue for 4Q25E is estimated at Rmb4.198 billion, reflecting a 2% increase year-over-year[4] - Content distribution revenue is expected to rise by 82% year-over-year to Rmb740 million in 4Q25E, driven by successful content releases[5] - Advertising revenue is projected to grow sequentially in 4Q due to premium content offerings and seasonal events[5] Market Position and Trends - iQiyi's average viewership market share in the top 10 drama category is 30% in 4Q, down from 39% in 3Q25[4] - New policies from NRTA are anticipated to enhance content supply and distribution, potentially boosting membership and advertising revenues[6] Valuation and Recommendations - The target price is maintained at US$2.00, with a NEUTRAL rating reflecting the current market conditions[2][7] - The company’s adjusted operating profit for FY26E is projected at Rmb985 million, with a P/E ratio of 15[9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q3 was RMB 6.7 billion, up 1% sequentially [37] - Membership services revenue reached RMB 4.2 billion, up 3% sequentially [37] - Online advertising revenue was RMB 1.2 billion, decreased by 2% sequentially [37] - Content distribution revenue increased to RMB 644.5 million, up 48% sequentially [37] - Non-GAAP operating loss was RMB 21.9 million, with a non-GAAP operating loss margin of 0.3% [39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Long form dramas secured top viewership market share, with "The Thriving Land" achieving high popularity [13] - Original theatrical releases grossed over RMB 1.2 billion, leading the box office [14] - Membership services revenue growth was driven by original hit dramas and theatrical megahits [19] - Advertising business recorded double-digit annual growth, mainly from premium variety shows and hit dramas [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Membership revenue from overseas markets increased by over 40% annually [28] - Membership revenue from micro dramas grew 114% sequentially [30] - Thai dramas have become a globally recognized content category, with significant revenue growth in overseas markets [55] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage AI for content creation and enhance user engagement [10][25] - Focus on expanding the content ecosystem through diverse genres and innovative storytelling [12][19] - Plans to enhance membership services and integrate them with top IPs [20] - Emphasis on global expansion and local content production in various markets [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted positive impacts from new regulatory policies on the long-form video industry [42] - Confidence in sustainable growth in the membership business supported by high-quality content [49] - Anticipation of significant changes in the video content creation industry due to AI advancements [66] Other Important Information - The company is exploring new content formats and revenue-sharing models to attract creative talent [44] - Strong focus on developing IP-based consumer products and offline experiences [32][34] - The company is investing heavily in AI technology applications to enhance content production and marketing efficiency [66] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on new regulations - Management observed positive progress in content review processes and is innovating content production models under new policies [42][44] Question: Outlook on membership business - Membership business is showing growth momentum driven by high-quality content and enhanced member services [46][49] Question: Overseas expansion strategy - The overseas business has seen strong performance, with significant growth in membership revenue and user base [51][55] Question: AI adoption in content production - AI technology is enhancing operational efficiency, monetization capabilities, and content production processes [58][66]

Core Insights - The speech by Bilibili's CEO Chen Rui at the World Internet Conference emphasizes the importance of high-quality content in the video era, positioning Bilibili as a platform dedicated to discovering and amplifying quality creators [1][4]. Group 1: Definition of Quality Content - Quality content is defined by three characteristics: uniqueness and creativity, a sense of gain for the viewer, and the ability to resonate emotionally [1][5]. - Examples of successful content include the "Drifting Camera" series by UP主 "-LKs-", which garnered over 13 million views, and a restoration project by UP主 "略靠谱旅社" that received over 15 million views [1]. Group 2: Characteristics of Quality Creators - Quality creators share common traits: a genuine passion for content creation, support from the platform, and the necessity of time for growth and audience resonance [2][6]. - Bilibili has over 2 million UP主 who have been active for more than five years, indicating a strong community of dedicated creators [2]. Group 3: Challenges in Content Quality - Despite the abundance of video content produced annually in China, users still perceive a scarcity of high-quality content, suggesting a disconnect between supply and perceived value [4]. - Chen Rui notes that content is not merely an industrial product but a blend of culture and industry, making its quality assessment more subjective [5].

Core Insights - The global online video and traditional television market revenue is expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, driven by subscription, on-demand transactions, and advertising revenue [2][5] - Online video is becoming the sole growth engine as the paid television market stagnates, with global video streaming revenue projected to reach $214.6 billion by 2025, growing at a rate of 12.8% annually [2][5] - Subscription revenue will account for 77% of the online video revenue by 2025, while high-end advertising revenue is expected to reach $42.1 billion, a 15.6% increase from 2024 [2][5] Market Trends - Traditional pay-TV is experiencing a slow decline but will still contribute significant revenue in the coming years, creating a positive market outlook alongside the strong growth of online video [5] - The total number of paid subscriptions is expected to continue growing steadily, although the annual growth rate for high-end streaming will decline by 2030, indicating market saturation [5] - The hybrid video model is still in its early stages, with subscription remaining the core business, but the strategy of incorporating advertising is showing significant results [5] Advertising Revenue Insights - By 2030, advertising revenue's role in SVOD and overall streaming will continue to grow, with the advertising revenue of the top five SVOD services in the U.S. projected to reach $24.3 billion, accounting for 20% of total revenue, up from 13% in 2025 [5]

Core Insights - iQIYI will host a virtual photography flagship open day at the Hengdian Film Industry Park on November 2, showcasing the latest cases and trends in virtual production technology [1][3] - The upgraded IQStage virtual production system will be demonstrated in real-time, allowing attendees to experience virtual shooting firsthand [3] - iQIYI has successfully produced several visually impressive series using virtual production technology since its establishment in Hengdian in 2022, including the first commercial series in China to use this technology, "Cloud Feather" [3] Group 1 - The flagship studio spans over 500 square meters with high-quality LED walls, supporting 200 flawless high-speed shots and a color gamut 1.2 times that of cinema screens [5] - iQIYI has introduced a heavy-duty waterproof electric control real scene turntable, overcoming previous challenges in virtual production [5] - The pricing for the upgraded virtual production system has been significantly reduced, with costs starting as low as 35,000 yuan per day, excluding digital scene production [5] Group 2 - The upgraded virtual photography studio has already been used for the filming of multiple series, receiving positive feedback for its seamless visual effects [5] - iQIYI's integration of over 20 patents and software copyrights into the IQStage platform has earned recognition from Beijing's Smart Broadcasting [3] - The company plans to complete the relocation and comprehensive upgrade of its virtual photography studio by the end of 2024 to better meet filming demands [3]

Summary of Earnings Call for China Games & Entertainment Sector Industry Overview - The Games & Entertainment sector has shown strong year-to-date (YTD) performance, with most companies experiencing growth between 60-100% [1][2] - Recent performance has diverged since the second quarter results, indicating potential volatility [1] - Future growth is expected to depend on earnings delivery, upward revisions in earnings per share (EPS), and new growth engines, particularly in AI initiatives [1] Key Companies Discussed NetEase (NTES) - **Rating**: Buy - **YTD Performance**: +69% - **3Q Metrics**: Game revenue increased by 18% year-over-year (YoY), operating profit up 23% YoY, and deferred revenue up 22% YoY [4][17] - **Catalysts**: 1. Progress in AI integration into existing and new games [4][17] 2. New game testing and launch timelines [4][17] 3. Potential primary listing in Hong Kong [4][17] - **Outlook**: Expected to enter a new product cycle with two blockbuster titles targeted for launch in 2026, which could significantly impact revenue and market perception [21] Bilibili (BILI) - **Rating**: Buy - **YTD Performance**: +63% - **3Q Metrics**: Advertising sales up 20% YoY, game revenue down 16% YoY, operating profit at RMB646 million, up 137% YoY [8][32] - **Catalysts**: 1. New game "Sanguo Ncard" testing in late October with a launch expected by Chinese New Year 2026 [8][33] 2. AI initiatives rolling out in the Bili community [8][33] - **Outlook**: Anticipated reversal of game revenue decline and integration of AI to enhance advertising and user engagement, with operating profit margin expected to reach 10% by 4Q25 and 15%+ in 2026-27 [38][36] Kuaishou - **Rating**: Buy - **YTD Performance**: +86% - **3Q Metrics**: Advertising revenue up 13% YoY, GMV up 15% YoY [9][51] - **Catalysts**: 1. Updates on Kling revenue guidance and monthly grossing trends [9][51] 2. Capex and AI revenue outlook for 2026 [9][51] - **Outlook**: Expected to deliver in-line results for 3Q25, with focus on AI integration and eCommerce growth despite competition [56][52] Tencent Music (TME) - **Rating**: Buy - **YTD Performance**: +100% - **3Q Metrics**: Music service revenue up 23% YoY, average revenue per user (ARPU) up 11% YoY [9][10] - **Catalysts**: 1. Completion of Ximalaya deal and business consolidation [10] 2. Upside potential from SVIP and enhanced content offerings [10] - **Outlook**: Continued growth expected from the proliferation of the fans economy and K-pop resurgence in China [10] iQIYI - **Rating**: Neutral - **YTD Performance**: +8% - **3Q Metrics**: Subscription revenue down 3% YoY, adjusted operating profit at -RMB22 million [10][11] - **Catalysts**: 1. Details on new drama policy and potential regulatory tailwinds [11] 2. Updates on secondary listing in Hong Kong [11] - **Outlook**: Challenges remain with subscription growth and profitability, requiring close monitoring of policy impacts [11] Additional Insights - The gaming industry is projected to grow at a low teens percentage YoY in 2025, driven by a loosening of game supply regulations [3] - AI initiatives are expected to enhance advertising effectiveness and user engagement across platforms, particularly for Bili and Kuaishou [3][36] - The easing of content regulations is anticipated to positively impact companies like IQ and TME, potentially fostering a more supportive environment for international artists [3] Conclusion The China Games & Entertainment sector is poised for continued growth, driven by strategic initiatives in AI, new game launches, and regulatory support. Companies like NetEase, Bilibili, and Kuaishou are expected to leverage these opportunities to enhance their market positions and financial performance in the coming quarters.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China online entertainment industry**, focusing on mobile gaming, online video, and online music sectors. Mobile Gaming Insights - **Overall Market Performance**: Q3 2025 saw a **4% YoY decline** in mobile game grossing due to a high base in 2024, but a **2% QoQ increase**. This is softer than typical Q3 vs Q2 seasonality, attributed to fewer new launches in summer compared to previous years [2][10]. - **Key Players**: - **Tencent**: Achieved a **9% QoQ growth** in grossing, driven by strong performance from **Delta Force** (estimated **Rmb1.5 billion** in September). Other stable titles include **Honor of Kings**, **Peacekeeper Elite**, and **DNF Mobile** [2][9]. - **NetEase**: Reported a **5% QoQ growth** in mobile grossing, with notable contributions from **Eggy Party** and **Where Winds Meet**, although this was partially offset by declines in **Sword of Justice** and **Identity V**. It is noted that only about **40%** of NetEase's reported mobile revenue is tracked, indicating potential revenue from non-app store channels [2][6]. - **Bilibili**: Launched **Escape From Duckrov**, achieving a peak of **222,000 concurrent players**, ranking it as the **5 most played game globally on Steam** [2][6]. Online Video Sector - **Kuaishou** launched **Kling 2.5 Turbo**, which is now the **1** in text-to-video and image-to-video generation, maintaining a cost advantage over competitors like Google's Veo 3 [3][4]. - **iQiyi**: Experienced a **10% MoM/YoY decline** in MAUs but is expected to see low-single-digit QoQ growth in membership revenue for Q3, aided by summer traffic improvements [3][4]. - **Tencent Video** and **Youku** have seen some recent successes with new content releases, while **Mango TV** maintained flat MAUs YoY [3][4]. Online Music Trends - The online music industry saw a **2% YoY increase** in MAUs, but time spent remained stable. **TME** (Tencent Music Entertainment) reported a **7% decline** in combined MAUs, with QQ Music and Kugou Music showing significant drops [6][7]. - **NetEase Cloud Music** showed a slight recovery with a **2% YoY increase** in MAUs, while **Soda Music** outperformed with a **91% YoY increase** in MAUs, likely benefiting from ByteDance's traffic [6][7]. Future Content Pipeline - Upcoming major content releases include titles from **Tencent Video**, **iQiyi**, **Youku**, and **Mango TV**, with several anticipated to launch in late October and throughout November and December [7][8]. Investment Outlook - The report remains positive on the online entertainment sector, citing: 1. Healthy consumer spending on leisure activities. 2. Supply-side improvements due to a more favorable regulatory environment and innovations in business models [4][5]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in content production and the potential for new business models to drive growth in the online entertainment sector [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the online entertainment industry in China.

Financial Performance - iQiyi's Q3 2025 revenue is estimated at Rmb 6.65 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year decline and flat quarter-over-quarter performance[2] - Membership revenue for Q3 2025 is projected at Rmb 4.26 billion, down 2% year-over-year[2] - Total revenue for FY 2025 is expected to be Rmb 27.14 billion, a decrease of 7% compared to FY 2024[1] Profitability Metrics - Net profit for FY 2025 is forecasted to drop to Rmb 173 million, an 89% decline from FY 2024[1] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to decrease to 20.7% in FY 2025, down from 24.9% in FY 2024[1] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 2025 is estimated at a loss of Rmb 25 million, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of -0.4%[4] Market Position and Strategy - iQiyi achieved a 40% viewing share in the Q3 drama market, significantly higher than Tencent and Youku, which both held 21%[2] - The company plans to release multiple new dramas in Q4 2025, aiming to enhance content offerings and attract more subscribers[12] Valuation and Recommendations - The target price for iQiyi is maintained at US$2.00, with a NEUTRAL rating reflecting the current market conditions[1] - The market capitalization stands at US$2.12 billion, with a current share price of US$2.20[1] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic deterioration and underperformance in content releases, which could impact revenue and profitability[5]

Industry Trend - Hollywood studios and investors believe YouTube represents the future [1] Investment Analysis - Despite this belief, studios and investors are not increasing investment in popular YouTube channels [1]