事件：近日，科思创德国工厂发生电气火灾，导致起氯气生产设施遭遇不可抗 力，其下游 TDI 生产原料受到影响。随后科思创宣布其 TDI 装置遭遇不可抗力， 短期内氯气无法从其他地方完全弥补，该工厂 30 万吨/年 TDI 装置停车，具体 复产时间待定。7 月 21 日，万华化学发布匈牙利工厂检修计划，工厂产能 40 万吨/年 MDI 装置以及 25 万吨/年 TDI 装置按计划停产检修，预计检修时间 30 天左右。 推荐（维持） 全球 TDI 开工受到影响，预计 TDI 价格上涨超预期 TDI 行业点评报告 周期/化工 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 22 日 1、《招商化工行业周报 2025 年 7 月 第 3 周—TDI、维生素 D3 价格涨幅居 前，建议关注 TDI 和有机硅板块》 2025-07-21 2、《基础化工行业 2025 年中期投资 策略—反内卷政策下，高集中度化工 品更具弹性》2025-07-21 3、《化工行业事件点评—有机硅大 厂发生火灾事故，行业或将迎来景气 上行周期》2025-07-21 周铮 S1090515120001 zhouzheng3@cmschin ...

Infrastructure - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially commenced on July 19, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [1] - The project will construct five cascade power stations, leveraging a significant technical resource potential of nearly 70 million kilowatts, which is three times the installed capacity of the Three Gorges Dam [1] - The project is expected to boost demand in various sectors, including civil explosives, cement, tunneling, and geotechnical engineering [1] Robotics - UBTECH Robotics won the largest procurement order in the global humanoid robot sector, amounting to 90.5115 million yuan, from MiYi (Shanghai) Automotive Technology Co., Ltd [2] - The company has accelerated its humanoid robot business, with plans to deliver 500 industrial humanoid robots this year [2] - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing rapid commercialization, with projections indicating potential mass production of over 10,000 units by 2026 [2] Rare Earths - The rare earth permanent magnet sector is witnessing a surge due to three favorable developments, including the reaffirmation of rare earth's strategic importance by the Ministry of State Security [3] - A new rare earth mineral, "Nd-Huanghe," was discovered, expanding resource potential [3] - The Chinese rare earth industry holds 70% of global production capacity and 90% of processing output, with significant growth potential in the midstream sector [3] TDI Market - A fire at Covestro's plant in Germany has led to supply disruptions, causing TDI prices to rise significantly, with a reported increase of 2,000 yuan per ton in East China [4] - As of July 17, TDI prices in Northern China surged by over 30%, reaching 18,500 yuan per ton [4] - Domestic TDI supply is concentrated, and the recent supply reductions are expected to improve product profitability [5] Artificial Blood - Researchers from Germany and the UK identified a key molecular signal, CXCL12, which is crucial for the maturation of red blood cells [6] - This discovery has significant implications for the large-scale, personalized production of artificial blood and potential treatments for blood-related diseases [6]

本周化工市场综述 本周申万化工指数上涨 2.07%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.07%。标的方面，主题方向表现较佳，比如：军工概念、机 器人材料，一季度业绩不佳的标的有所承压。关税方面，本周英美谈判落地，这给其它国家谈判提供了模板；另 外，其它国家谈判也不是一帆风顺，比如：第二轮日美关税谈判结束，石破茂强硬表态：绝不接受对汽车加征关 税；再比如：欧盟将就美关税向世贸组织提出诉讼，并准备对 950 亿欧元自美国进口产品采取反制措施。除此之 外，值得关注的是中美谈判的进展。还有，我们也观察到关税对于贸易格局的影响也开始显现，许多国家现在采取 两手策略，一方面努力与特朗普达成协议以撤销部分关税，另一方面加强与其他伙伴的贸易合作，减少对美国市场 的依赖。关于关税的影响，从数据上看，会阶段性影响美国补库去库节奏，比如：美国 3 月贸易逆差扩大至 1405 亿 美元，创纪录新高；虽然美国宏观数据还明显反应，比如：通胀数据，但微观数据已有苗头，比如：洛杉矶港本周 的进口量预计将与去年同期相比下降 35%；再比如：卡车运输公司正在减少重型卡车的订单，3 月份北美重型卡车订 单取消率创近两年新高。 AI 行业边际变化方面，主要 ...