【环球时报综合报道】"今年暑期档票房破40亿（美元）恐怕是不可能了。"《好莱坞报道者》近日撰 文，感叹今年北美暑期档原本期望热卖的好莱坞大片，表现却不及预期。业内人士认为，主要还是缺乏 像前几年《芭比》《头脑特工队2》那样的爆款大片撑起整个大盘。 美国CNBC援引好莱坞业内人士的警告，认为今年好莱坞8月至9月后将陷入颓势，缺乏重量级大片压 阵，即便10月有《创：战神》《真人快打2》等片上映，局面也不会有明显好转，可能要等到11月的 《魔法坏女巫2》和《疯狂动物城2》才会有所起色，而2025年真正的大戏，还得看年底的《阿凡达3： 火与烬》。（董铭） 在今年暑期档（北美为5至8月）开启之前，好莱坞原本对市场抱有乐观的期望，认为今年有望大幅超过 去年的37亿美元，包括《碟中谍8》《侏罗纪世界：重生》《超人》和《神奇4侠：初露锋芒》等都有望 热卖。前期在《我的世界大电影》《星际宝贝史迪奇》和《碟中谍8》的带动下，北美电影市场第二季 度成绩亮眼，票房比去年同期涨了37%。然而在7月之后，北美电影市场开始急速下落，截至8月17日票 房较去年同期下降6%，较2023年同期跌幅更是高达11%，就连漫威的重头戏《神奇4侠：初露 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised Public Security Administration Punishment Law in China aims to address the rising and increasingly younger demographic of juvenile delinquency, emphasizing the need for stronger legal deterrence and a more comprehensive legal framework to prevent juvenile crime [1][2][3] Group 1: Legislative Changes - The revised law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and includes significant changes regarding minors, such as adjusting the conditions for administrative detention and ensuring timely police intervention in school bullying cases [1] - The law reflects a shift towards enhancing legal deterrence and improving the legal system's coherence in dealing with juvenile delinquency [1][2] Group 2: Social Context and Issues - The narrative of the British series "Adolescence" (translated as "混沌少年时") parallels real-life juvenile crime cases, highlighting the complexities of adolescent behavior and the underlying social issues [2][3] - The series illustrates that juvenile crime often stems from everyday interactions and pressures, suggesting that the motivations for such acts may be rooted in social dynamics rather than inherent malice [8][19] Group 3: Parental and Educational Roles - The series raises questions about parental responsibility in preventing juvenile crime, emphasizing the disconnect between parents and their children's experiences, particularly during adolescence [10][11] - It critiques the inability of educators to recognize and address the psychological crises faced by students, which can lead to tragic outcomes [7][10] Group 4: Impact of Social Media - The role of social media in facilitating bullying and the spread of harmful behaviors among minors is a significant concern, as it can amplify negative interactions and lead to severe consequences [14][15] - The series highlights how online platforms can become tools for both bullying and victimization, creating a toxic environment for adolescents [15][18] Group 5: Broader Societal Implications - The discussion extends to the societal factors contributing to juvenile delinquency, suggesting that structural issues within society may play a critical role in shaping youth behavior [19][20] - The need for a more inclusive and diverse evaluation system for youth is emphasized, advocating for a cultural shift that allows children to find their identity without resorting to harmful behaviors [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to impose a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films entering the U.S. signifies an extension of trade sanctions from goods to services, which will significantly impact Hollywood and its performance in the Chinese market [1][5]. Group 1: Impact on Hollywood - The U.S. tariffs and China's response to reduce the import of American films will create substantial challenges for Hollywood, pushing it into a more difficult situation [1]. - Hollywood's revenue from the Chinese market has seen a drastic decline, with box office earnings dropping from 216 billion RMB in 2017 to only 62.73 billion RMB in 2024, representing a decrease from 38.7% to 15.1% of global box office revenue [4][10]. - The number of Hollywood films generating over 1 billion RMB in China has decreased for two consecutive years, indicating a significant downturn in market performance [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese film market has grown significantly, with over 80,000 screens and a total box office of 425.02 billion RMB in 2024, making it the second-largest globally [3]. - Hollywood films once accounted for half of their global box office revenue from China, but this share has diminished as the market dynamics shift [3][10]. - The competition from streaming platforms like Netflix and YouTube has further eroded traditional cinema attendance, with only 34% of U.S. adults preferring to watch films in theaters [10]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The average production cost of Hollywood films exceeds 200 million USD, and rising tariffs on imported materials will increase production costs and strain profitability [8][9]. - The overall U.S. film box office revenue is projected to decline from approximately 86 billion USD in 2023 to around 70 billion USD by 2025, reflecting a significant contraction in the industry [10]. - The U.S. service trade surplus, which includes film exports, may be adversely affected by the restrictions on Hollywood films in China, despite the relatively small direct contribution of film revenues to the overall service trade [12][14]. Group 4: Cultural and Strategic Considerations - Hollywood's cultural influence and the portrayal of American values through its films are at risk due to the increasing isolation from international markets [14]. - The U.S. government's tariffs may lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, further complicating Hollywood's ability to access key markets [13]. - The decline in Hollywood's global market share, which has fallen from over 60% a decade ago to 51% in 2023, underscores the industry's diminishing competitive edge [10].

Core Viewpoint - Hollywood is facing significant challenges due to declining international market share, increased competition, and the impact of tariffs, which collectively threaten its historical dominance and the broader U.S. service trade [1][4][14] Group 1: Hollywood's Historical Context and Achievements - Hollywood has evolved over a century, pioneering various film production and distribution methods, and has historically dominated global box office revenues [3][4] - In 2024, Hollywood films occupied 9 out of the top 10 global box office spots, with "Inside Out 2" leading at $1.757 billion [3] Group 2: Current Market Challenges - The global box office revenue for Hollywood films fell to $30.5 billion in the previous year, a 10% decrease, with international market share dropping from 82% to 77% [4] - The number of Hollywood films grossing over $200 million globally decreased from 31 to 23, indicating a contraction across all markets [4] - In North America, the number of Hollywood films earning over $100 million fell from 25 to 22, with a revenue drop of nearly $300 million [4] Group 3: Impact of Streaming Services - Streaming platforms like Netflix and YouTube are increasingly preferred by audiences, with only 34% of U.S. adults favoring cinema, while nearly 80% prefer streaming [5] - The average time spent by U.S. audiences on streaming platforms reached 3.13 trillion minutes weekly, indicating a shift in viewing habits [5] Group 4: Tariff Policies and International Relations - The U.S. tariff policies under the Trump administration have led to reduced imports of American films in China, a crucial market for Hollywood [7][9] - China has historically been a significant market for Hollywood, contributing to a peak revenue of $21.6 billion in 2017, but this has declined to approximately $6.273 billion in 2024 [9] Group 5: Financial Implications and Future Outlook - The average production cost for Hollywood films exceeds $200 million, and rising tariffs on imported materials are expected to increase production costs and reduce profitability [9][10] - The usage rate of Los Angeles studios dropped from over 90% to 63%, with filming days at a six-year low, indicating a contraction in production activity [10] - The U.S. service trade, heavily reliant on Hollywood films, is projected to face significant challenges due to declining revenues and potential retaliatory measures from other countries [13][14]