Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to impose a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films entering the U.S. signifies an extension of trade sanctions from goods to services, which will significantly impact Hollywood and its performance in the Chinese market [1][5]. Group 1: Impact on Hollywood - The U.S. tariffs and China's response to reduce the import of American films will create substantial challenges for Hollywood, pushing it into a more difficult situation [1]. - Hollywood's revenue from the Chinese market has seen a drastic decline, with box office earnings dropping from 216 billion RMB in 2017 to only 62.73 billion RMB in 2024, representing a decrease from 38.7% to 15.1% of global box office revenue [4][10]. - The number of Hollywood films generating over 1 billion RMB in China has decreased for two consecutive years, indicating a significant downturn in market performance [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese film market has grown significantly, with over 80,000 screens and a total box office of 425.02 billion RMB in 2024, making it the second-largest globally [3]. - Hollywood films once accounted for half of their global box office revenue from China, but this share has diminished as the market dynamics shift [3][10]. - The competition from streaming platforms like Netflix and YouTube has further eroded traditional cinema attendance, with only 34% of U.S. adults preferring to watch films in theaters [10]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The average production cost of Hollywood films exceeds 200 million USD, and rising tariffs on imported materials will increase production costs and strain profitability [8][9]. - The overall U.S. film box office revenue is projected to decline from approximately 86 billion USD in 2023 to around 70 billion USD by 2025, reflecting a significant contraction in the industry [10]. - The U.S. service trade surplus, which includes film exports, may be adversely affected by the restrictions on Hollywood films in China, despite the relatively small direct contribution of film revenues to the overall service trade [12][14]. Group 4: Cultural and Strategic Considerations - Hollywood's cultural influence and the portrayal of American values through its films are at risk due to the increasing isolation from international markets [14]. - The U.S. government's tariffs may lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, further complicating Hollywood's ability to access key markets [13]. - The decline in Hollywood's global market share, which has fallen from over 60% a decade ago to 51% in 2023, underscores the industry's diminishing competitive edge [10].

Core Viewpoint - Hollywood is facing significant challenges due to declining international market share, increased competition, and the impact of tariffs, which collectively threaten its historical dominance and the broader U.S. service trade [1][4][14] Group 1: Hollywood's Historical Context and Achievements - Hollywood has evolved over a century, pioneering various film production and distribution methods, and has historically dominated global box office revenues [3][4] - In 2024, Hollywood films occupied 9 out of the top 10 global box office spots, with "Inside Out 2" leading at $1.757 billion [3] Group 2: Current Market Challenges - The global box office revenue for Hollywood films fell to $30.5 billion in the previous year, a 10% decrease, with international market share dropping from 82% to 77% [4] - The number of Hollywood films grossing over $200 million globally decreased from 31 to 23, indicating a contraction across all markets [4] - In North America, the number of Hollywood films earning over $100 million fell from 25 to 22, with a revenue drop of nearly $300 million [4] Group 3: Impact of Streaming Services - Streaming platforms like Netflix and YouTube are increasingly preferred by audiences, with only 34% of U.S. adults favoring cinema, while nearly 80% prefer streaming [5] - The average time spent by U.S. audiences on streaming platforms reached 3.13 trillion minutes weekly, indicating a shift in viewing habits [5] Group 4: Tariff Policies and International Relations - The U.S. tariff policies under the Trump administration have led to reduced imports of American films in China, a crucial market for Hollywood [7][9] - China has historically been a significant market for Hollywood, contributing to a peak revenue of $21.6 billion in 2017, but this has declined to approximately $6.273 billion in 2024 [9] Group 5: Financial Implications and Future Outlook - The average production cost for Hollywood films exceeds $200 million, and rising tariffs on imported materials are expected to increase production costs and reduce profitability [9][10] - The usage rate of Los Angeles studios dropped from over 90% to 63%, with filming days at a six-year low, indicating a contraction in production activity [10] - The U.S. service trade, heavily reliant on Hollywood films, is projected to face significant challenges due to declining revenues and potential retaliatory measures from other countries [13][14]

来源丨每日经济新闻 据证券时报报道， 美国总统特朗普最新表示，授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在 国外制作的进入美国的电影征收100%的关税。 特朗普在其社交平台Truth Social表示，美国的电影业正在迅速消亡。其他国家正在提供各种各样 的激励措施，以吸引美国电影制作人和工作室离开美国。 他表示，要让电影重新在美国拍摄。好莱坞和美国的许多其他地区正在遭受重创。这是其他国家的 共同"努力"的结果，是对美国国家安全的威胁。除此之外，这还事关信息传播与宣传！ 图片来源：视觉中国，图文无关 01 国际票房高低决定好莱坞大片成败 值得注意的是，国际市场是美国电影的重要票仓，而国际影片（非美国制作）在美票房表现相对有 限。 据《电影评论》，美国是唯一一个以全球市场为制片策略的国家，考察其电影发展动向必须将其全 球票房纳入考察，对比其2024国内全球票房榜，在美国国内表现平平的《毒液：最后一舞》《狮 子王：木法沙传奇》凭借几乎双倍于国内票房的海外票房挤掉《阴间大法师2》《龙卷风》，杀入 美片全球票房十强。 图片来源： 《电影评论》 另外，对好莱坞超级大片来说，中国市场有着很高的挖掘潜力且有其他任何一个单一 ...