证券研究报告 国庆档票房同降 12.5%至约 18.4 亿元，短期仍现疲态 传媒 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 09 日│中国内地 动态点评 国庆档票房疲弱，《志愿军 3》领跑 据猫眼专业版预测，25 年国庆档（10 月 1 日-10 月 8 日）票房约 18.4 亿元， 同比去年国庆档票房下降 12.5%。10 月 1 日-10 月 7 日的 7 天同口径下票 房较 24 年同降 18%，短期行业仍有一定疲态。25 年国庆档票房下降，我 们认为主因：1）同题材电影致票房分流，如《志愿军 3》在拥有多部前作 的情况下，与暑期档《南京照相馆》、9 月电影《731》题材相似；2）国庆 档优质内容相对缺乏；3）观众迭代，娱乐选择多元化。板块短期承压，但 考虑后续《疯狂动物城 2》等优质进口影片和国产储备将上映，期待电影行 业景气度回升。 国庆档观影人次及平均票价均回落，三四线城市票房占比提升 国庆档总体表现低于市场预期，节前第三方电影媒体娱乐资本论、票房探照 灯的国庆档票房预测分别 23.64 亿元和 23 亿元（取中位数）。由于 25 年 国庆档为中秋+国庆双节，考虑同口径取 10 月 1 日-7 日为区间， ...

只讲干货和硬逻辑 以下文章来源于犀牛娱乐 ，作者犀牛娱乐编辑部 犀牛娱乐 . 来源｜ 犀牛娱乐 作者｜ 南如珉 编辑｜朴芳 电影《731》中有一个醒目的字幕"这里，无人生还"。它恰好适用于今年的国庆档。 今年国庆档过于低迷，已经是远远超乎了想象，较往年的下滑将会非常惊人。其实从最初的预期来看，尽管国庆档打造了一个华丽的"片海战术"，但很明 显是华而不实的，完全是缺乏实战能力，对观众无法构成有效的吸引力，这无疑是国庆档全盘失利的重要原因。 国庆档为何全面失利 在类型、阵容、口碑都不算太差的情况下，国庆档的全面崩盘也就格外引人关注。不论是大盘，还是单片，国庆档几乎拿不出任何的亮点，甚至很快就被 上映两周的《731》占得先机。那么今年国庆档为何迎来了如此全面的失利？ ● 《志愿军3》 从系列的角度来看，最新的《志愿军3》达到了系列的平均水准，并未出现口碑突然崩塌所导致的票房下滑，甚至在泪点和情绪渲染上，这部《志愿军3》 达到了新的高度，但影片的问题也是非常突出，即审美疲劳。从《长津湖》两部曲，再到《志愿军3》三部曲，五部电影下来，观众实在有些顶不住了。 另一方面，前作《志愿军2》曾一度达到12亿+的体量，其中朱一龙 ...

Core Insights - The National Day box office in 2025 has surpassed 1.3 billion yuan, driven by films like "The Volunteer Army: Bloodbath for Peace" and "731" [3][9] - Despite a diverse range of genres, individual film performances have not met expectations, with overall box office projected to match last year's figures [5][7] - The film "The Sound of Thunder" has shown potential as a "dark horse," achieving significant box office contributions shortly after its release [6][10] Box Office Performance - As of October 5, 2025, the total box office for the National Day period reached 13.54 billion yuan, still trailing last year's 21.05 billion yuan by approximately 7.51 billion yuan [7][9] - "The Volunteer Army: Bloodbath for Peace" leads the box office with 3.79 billion yuan, supported by a stable audience demographic [5][6] - "731" has contributed significantly to the box office, generating over 2.69 billion yuan and accounting for about 20% of the total box office [9][10] Audience Trends - The average ticket price during the first four days of the National Day period was 37.4 yuan, down from 40.6 yuan the previous year, indicating a lower barrier to entry for viewers [8] - The film "731" has shown strong performance in lower-tier cities, with a box office share of 35.6% in four-tier cities, reflecting its appeal in these markets [10][11] - The audience for "The Volunteer Army: Bloodbath for Peace" is balanced between genders, with a notable presence of viewers aged 40 and above [5][6] Market Outlook - The overall film market in 2025 has already surpassed the total box office of 2024, reaching 425.022 billion yuan by October 2, 2025 [10] - Despite the positive growth, concerns remain about the reliance on a few blockbuster films, with a need for a more balanced market structure featuring multiple successful films [11] - Analysts suggest that the industry must enhance its appeal to younger audiences to ensure sustainable growth [11]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者于玉金 北京报道 灯塔专业版数据分析师陈晋告诉本报记者，《志愿军3》持续领跑国庆档票房，观众基本盘稳固，其良 好的市场表现也为整体票房走势的平稳提供了重要支撑。观众画像显示，该片男女观众分布均衡，40岁 以上多人结伴观影的比例尤为突出，成为多数家庭观众的观影首选。 《志愿军3》的出品方名单中有中国电影、八一电影制片厂及博纳影业等，联合出品方则包括华谊兄 弟、大麦娱乐、万达电影在内的30家公司。 10月4日，《震耳欲聋》正式上映，首日票房接近4000万元，以10.7%的排片占比贡献了16.5%的票房占 比，展现出成为"黑马"的潜力。 据了解，《震耳欲聋》在10月2日、3日的14:00-22:00开启点映。在国庆档正式开启前的预售阶段，本片 为所有国庆档新片中预售成绩最好的影片。截至9月30日21时，本片的国庆档预售票房超3350万元。开 启点映之后，影片在10月3日（点映第二天）实现单日票房逆跌。 在《志愿军：浴血和平》（下称"《志愿军3》"）《731》影片的带动下，国庆档票房成绩一路攀升。根 据灯塔专业版数据，截至10月5日17时16分，2025年国庆档票房（含预 ...

Core Insights - The National Day box office performance has significantly declined, with a first-day revenue of 330 million, representing a 33% drop compared to last year, and only reaching the level of 2016 when excluding the exceptional year of 2022 [2][3] Group 1: Box Office Performance - The first day of the National Day box office achieved 330 million, indicating a poor performance and a notable decline from previous years [2] - The lack of blockbuster films this year has contributed to a "sea of films" strategy, leading to a fragmented market where no standout films are present [2][3] - The absence of strong headliners in the National Day lineup has resulted in a diminished status compared to other holiday periods like the Spring Festival [2] Group 2: Film Analysis - "The Volunteer Army 3" opened with 96 million, a 37% decrease compared to its predecessor, indicating audience fatigue with the series [4][7] - "Assassination Novelist 2" grossed 64 million on its opening day, struggling to surpass the original's box office due to polarized audience reception [9] - "731" performed well with 60 million on its first day, suggesting either its strength or the overall weakness of other films in the lineup [11] - "Wandering Life" earned 36 million, lacking a clear genre or standout quality, resulting in a mediocre performance [16] - "Wind Forest Fire Mountain" and "Three Kingdoms' Starry Sky" had poor openings, with 2.08 million and 2.05 million respectively, indicating limited market appeal [19][22] - "Bi Zhengming's Proof" garnered 850,000, showing potential for growth if other films underperform [25]

Box Office Performance - The film "731" has surpassed 1.3 billion yuan in box office revenue, significantly boosting the traditionally slow September movie market and extending this viewing enthusiasm into the upcoming National Day holiday [2] - As of September 25, 2025, the total pre-sale box office for new films during the National Day holiday reached 15.75 million yuan, with "Assassination of the Novelist 2" leading the pre-sale box office rankings [2] Market Trends - September is typically a slow month for the film market, but this year, driven by "731," the monthly box office has exceeded 2.3 billion yuan, far surpassing the same period last year [2] - The upcoming National Day holiday features a diverse range of film genres, including fantasy, action, war, drama, animation, history, comedy, and crime, catering to various audience preferences [3] Film Analysis - "Assassination of the Novelist 2" is currently leading in pre-sales, with a strong emphasis on visual and auditory experiences, and has the highest number of IMAX screenings among all films [3] - The film's pre-sale success indicates sustained interest based on its predecessor's IP, and if it receives positive reviews post-release, its performance during the National Day holiday is expected to be strong [3][4] Audience Demographics - "Assassination of the Novelist 2" has a significant market share in lower-tier cities, with 22.7% of its box office coming from these areas [3] - "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" has a notable audience demographic, with nearly 40% of its pre-sale viewers aged 40 and above, highlighting its appeal to family audiences [4] Industry Impact - The anticipation for the National Day holiday has led to a surge in several film stocks, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Bona Film Group and Light Media [4] - The trend of film sequels and IP series is becoming mainstream, with several films in the National Day lineup being sequels, indicating a shift towards a more mature and industrialized film industry in China [6][7] Box Office Variability - Despite the prevalence of sequels, there is a noticeable polarization in box office performance, with some films exceeding expectations while others fall short [8][9] - The ultimate success of a film is influenced by its quality and audience reception, alongside promotional efforts and market trends [9]

Core Insights - The film "731" has surpassed 1.3 billion yuan in box office revenue, significantly boosting the traditionally slow September movie market and extending this momentum into the upcoming National Day holiday [2][5] - The pre-sale box office for new films during the 2025 National Day holiday has reached 15.74 million yuan, with "Assassination of the Novelist 2" leading the pre-sale rankings [2][3] Box Office Performance - September's total box office has exceeded 2.3 billion yuan, far surpassing the same period last year, largely due to the success of "731" [2][5] - "Assassination of the Novelist 2" is currently leading in pre-sale ticket sales, indicating strong audience interest based on its predecessor's success [4][6] Film Diversity and Audience Engagement - The National Day film lineup features a diverse range of genres including fantasy, action, war, drama, animation, history, comedy, and crime, catering to various audience preferences [3][4] - "Assassination of the Novelist 2" has a significant presence in IMAX screenings, with 753 showings on its opening day, and a notable 22.7% of its box office coming from lower-tier cities [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Other films in the National Day lineup, such as "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" and "The First Part of the Stars of the Three Kingdoms," also show strong pre-sale performance and audience engagement [2][4] - "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" has a high proportion of viewers aged 40 and above, indicating strong family viewing appeal [4][6] Industry Trends - The trend of film sequels and IP series is becoming mainstream, with several films in the National Day lineup being sequels, reflecting a shift towards more mature and industrialized film production in China [6][7] - The box office performance of sequels shows a mixed trend, with some films exceeding expectations while others fall short, highlighting the importance of quality and audience reception in determining box office success [8]

Group 1 - The company, China Film (600977.SH), is actively involved in the production and distribution of films, with several titles currently in theaters [1] - The main production film "Nanjing Photo Studio" and co-produced films "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" and "Tom and Jerry: Starry Adventure" are currently showing [1] - Upcoming releases include co-produced films "Dongji Island" and "Adventure," which are set to premiere this Friday, along with anticipated films "Volunteer Army 3" and "The Rise of the Great Sage" scheduled for release later this year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant performance of the Chinese film market during the summer season, with daily box office revenue exceeding 100 million yuan for nine consecutive days since July 18, and a total box office of over 4.7 billion yuan for the summer season as of now [1][2] - Three major films focusing on the theme of the Anti-Japanese War, namely "Nanjing Photo Studio," "Dongji Island," and "Mountains and Rivers as Evidence," are set to be released this summer, showcasing the historical events and the spirit of resistance [2] - The article emphasizes the cultural significance of these films, which are expected to resonate with audiences by reflecting on historical events and promoting patriotism, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War [1][2] Group 2 - The article mentions that in addition to the three highlighted films, several other significant historical films such as "Volunteer Army 3" and "Survivor" are also anticipated to be released soon, indicating a trend towards more historical narratives in cinema [2] - The film industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a notable increase in box office performance, suggesting a potential investment opportunity in the entertainment sector [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - This year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, with a series of artistic works being released to commemorate the history and spirit of resistance [1] Film Summaries Nanjing Photo Studio - The film "Nanjing Photo Studio" is based on the real events of the Nanjing Massacre, showcasing the atrocities committed by Japanese troops after their occupation of Nanjing in December 1937 [3][5] - The story revolves around civilians hiding in a photo studio who, while trying to survive, inadvertently develop photographs that serve as evidence of the Japanese war crimes [7] - The film features actors Liu Haoran, Wang Chuanjun, Gao Ye, and Wang Xiao, and is set to be released nationwide on July 25 [9] Dongji Island - "Dongji Island" tells the true story of Chinese fishermen who risked their lives to rescue British POWs during World War II, specifically during the Lisbon Maru sinking incident in 1942 [9][10] - The film depicts the fishermen's bravery and determination to save over 300 drowning soldiers despite the language barrier and threats from Japanese forces [10] - Directed by Guan Hu and Fei Zhenxiang, the film stars Zhu Yilong, Wu Lei, and Ni Ni, and will be released on August 8 [16] Mountains and Rivers as Evidence - "Mountains and Rivers as Evidence" is the first panoramic documentary showcasing the 14-year struggle of the Chinese people during the Anti-Japanese War, emphasizing the spirit of resistance and national perseverance [18] - The film combines historical accuracy with artistic responsibility, utilizing digital restoration to revive precious archival footage and highlight the collective efforts of the Chinese people [18] - It is set to premiere on August 15, inviting audiences to reflect on this significant historical period [18] Upcoming Releases - In addition to the aforementioned films, several other historical films such as "Volunteer Army 3" and "Survivors" are also set to be released, contributing to a cinematic celebration of history and patriotism [20]