SDICSI 2025 年 12 月 29 日 光伏产业链 光伏年度大会，行业发展聚焦"反内卷" 事件：12 月 18 日，中国光伏行业协会在陕西西安召开 2025 光伏行业年度大 会，年度大会以"破解内卷困境、推动高质量可持续发展"为核心议题，汇聚了 国家能源局、工信部、商务部等主管部门代表、行业专家及产业链上下游企业千 余人，共同探讨光伏产业在"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局关键阶段的发展路 径。主管部门领导在致辞中强调，2026 年行业治理将进入攻坚期，需加强产能 调控、技术标准升级与产业链协同。 报告摘要 2026 光伏行业"反内卷"进入攻坚期。在光伏行业年度大会上，工信部电子信 息司杨司长致辞，提出 2026 年光伏行业治理进入到攻坚期，工信部电子信息司 将重点进行六方面工作：1）进一步加强产能调控，加快实现产能的动态平衡； 2）健全价格监测机制，遏制低价无序竞争，加强产品质量监督和抽查。3）强化 创新驱动，推动光伏产业高质量发展；4）进一步完善标准体系，加快发布、强 制性的国家标准的制修订和贯彻执行；5）敦促行业进一步加强行业自律，各企 业主体之间加强协商和共识；6）推动深化国际合作，不断拓展国际交 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

去"内卷化"背景下：中国光伏制造业 的价值重构与发展新范式 联合资信 工商评级三部 |马金星 |高 星 近年来，在"双碳"目标引领和地方产业政策驱动下，光伏制造端产能 快速扩张，但阶段性产能过剩问题日益凸显，产业链各环节产品同质化严重， 产品低价恶性竞争，光伏制造企业财务状况明显恶化，行业信用水平恶化。 面对以光伏等产业为代表的无序化、非理性的竞争态势，我国将综合整 治"内卷式"竞争提升至国家战略任务层面，多部门及行业协会协同推出"产 能调控与价格规范"组合措施。因协会自律约束力弱，且民企为主的光伏产 业很难简单复制钢铁、水泥等行业供给侧改革措施，其产能过剩破局仍需政 府、行业协会及企业协同发力。未来，在法律法规强约束下，行业协会自律 机制逐步落实，光伏产业链产能出清节奏或将加速，预计具备技术领先优势、 充足的现金储备以及稳健的财务状况的光伏企业有望穿越周期。长期来看， 全球光伏市场仍具备较大的增长空间。 近年来，光伏产业作为实现"双碳"目标的重要支撑领域之一，在政策推动下光 伏装机需求快速增加，带动制造端产能持续扩张。与此同时，为实现 GDP 增速目标， 部分地方政府迫于压力过度招商引资，而光伏产业作为投资 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟 行业比较周跟踪（20251206-20251212） 本期投资提示: 相关研究 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一、Ａ 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日) ● 1) 指数及板块估值比较: 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 21 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 77%和 39%分位; √ √ 上证 50 PE 为 11.7 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 62%和 40%分位; √ ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a silicon material storage platform marks a significant event in the photovoltaic industry, indicating a shift towards reducing production capacity and addressing overcapacity issues in the sector [2][5][21]. Group 1: Background and Development - The silicon material storage platform, named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was officially established on December 9, with a registered capital of 3 billion [2]. - The platform was formed by ten photovoltaic companies, primarily silicon material producers, including Tongwei, GCL, and Daqo Energy [2][18]. - The industry has been anticipating the establishment of this platform since mid-2025, with various discussions and speculations circulating in the market [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Challenges - Following the announcement of the platform's establishment, major silicon material companies saw significant stock price increases, with some rising by 10% on the same day [6]. - However, negative sentiments emerged in November when claims of the "failure of anti-involution" led to a sharp decline in the photovoltaic sector, with the photovoltaic ETF dropping by 11.27% from November 12 to December 10 [9][8]. - The concerns regarding "anti-monopoly" issues have been cited as a major factor affecting the implementation of the anti-involution measures [11][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, the photovoltaic industry is expected to reach a turning point, with potential for asset revaluation as the market begins to focus on the recovery of photovoltaic asset valuations [21][25]. - The effectiveness of the silicon material reduction plan will be crucial for improving the fundamentals and performance of photovoltaic companies [23]. - The anticipated recovery in the market is expected to begin in the first or second quarter of the following year, with price increases in silicon materials likely to benefit upstream companies first [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a sustained capacity clearing cycle by 2026, leading to an optimized competitive landscape and improved performance for existing photovoltaic companies. Public funds currently have low allocations in the photovoltaic sector, but low valuations and improved supply-demand dynamics are likely to attract more capital [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - In 2025, the transition to market-oriented trading policies for renewable energy will lead to a phase of increased installations in the photovoltaic sector. In the first three quarters, China added a cumulative 240.27 GW of photovoltaic capacity, a year-on-year increase of 64.73%, indicating strong growth. However, demand is expected to stabilize after the installation rush, with traditional markets in Europe and the U.S. showing weak growth while Asia-Pacific and Africa exhibit strong energy demand [2][3]. - The capacity of the grid to absorb and support photovoltaic installations is a critical factor for industry development. The reliance on large-scale centralized power plants is expected to continue, while policies affecting the revenue models of these plants will have significant long-term impacts [3]. Group 2: Subsector Insights - **Energy Storage Inverters**: The global energy storage market is on the rise, benefiting inverter manufacturers. The demand for energy storage systems is expected to grow rapidly due to increased photovoltaic installations, flexibility requirements in power systems, and advancements in storage technology. By the end of 2027, new energy storage installations are projected to exceed 180 million kW, with over 100 million kW added in three years [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon sector is undergoing a transformation with stricter energy consumption standards. Leading companies are forming merger funds to consolidate weaker capacities, which is expected to drive industry capacity reduction. Polysilicon prices are beginning to recover, crossing the breakeven point for leading firms [5]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The photovoltaic glass industry is entering a phase of capacity optimization and market clearing. Smaller production lines are exiting the market due to cost disadvantages, while larger lines are cautiously resuming operations. Demand growth for photovoltaic glass is expected to slow down, with thin and multifunctional products emerging as new growth points [6]. - **Integrated Component Manufacturers**: The competitive landscape for integrated component manufacturers is stabilizing, with significant reductions in capital expenditures. The supply contraction is expected to effectively reduce industry supply. These manufacturers are also extending their business into the energy storage sector, focusing on commercial and large-scale storage projects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a sustained capacity clearing cycle by 2026, with impacts from "anti-involution" pricing strategies, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and improved product quality standards gradually becoming evident [1] Industry Outlook - The competitive landscape and industrial ecosystem of the photovoltaic industry are likely to optimize, leading to a gradual improvement in the performance of existing photovoltaic companies [1] - Public funds currently have a low allocation to the photovoltaic sector, but low valuations and an improving supply-demand balance are expected to attract more capital [1] - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating, suggesting a positive outlook for investment [1] Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on leading companies within specific sub-industries, particularly in areas such as energy storage inverters, polysilicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and integrated component manufacturers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a sustained capacity clearance cycle by 2026, with impacts from "anti-involution" pricing strategies, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and improved product quality standards gradually becoming evident [1] Industry Summary - The competitive landscape and industrial ecosystem of the photovoltaic industry are likely to optimize, leading to a gradual improvement in the performance of existing photovoltaic companies [1] - Public funds currently have a low allocation to the photovoltaic sector, but low valuations and an improving supply-demand balance are expected to attract more capital [1] - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in specific sub-sectors [1] Investment Focus - Specific areas of interest include energy storage inverters, polysilicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and leading integrated component manufacturers [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the photovoltaic industry is entering a continuous capacity clearance cycle, driven by anti-involution policies and market dynamics, which will gradually improve the performance of existing photovoltaic companies [4][22][50] - The investment recommendation maintains a "stronger than market" rating, suggesting a focus on leading companies in niche sectors such as energy storage inverters, polysilicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and integrated component manufacturers [4][36][50] Group 1: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook - In 2025, the photovoltaic sector saw a significant increase in installed capacity, with a total of 240.27 GW added, representing a year-on-year growth of 64.73% [4][36] - The report notes a bifurcation in stock performance, with the photovoltaic industry index yielding a return of 21.53% from January to November 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which returned 13.18% [14][20] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a slowdown in new installations, with expectations of stable demand and a focus on improving the quality of the industry through capacity reduction and consolidation [4][36][50] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the energy storage inverter sector will benefit from a global upturn in energy storage demand, with significant growth expected in the market [4][36] - For polysilicon, the report highlights that anti-involution measures are likely to reverse the industry's challenges, recommending a focus on leading companies with performance elasticity [5][9] - The photovoltaic glass market is entering a phase of capacity optimization, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies that possess cost advantages [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the traditional markets in Europe and the U.S. are experiencing sluggish growth, while demand in Asia-Pacific and Africa remains robust, with imports of components continuing to grow rapidly [4][41][42] - The report outlines that the U.S. market is facing challenges due to the expiration of investment tax credits, which is expected to impact new installations negatively [45][46] - In contrast, the Middle East and Africa are emerging as hotspots for photovoltaic demand due to their energy transition needs and favorable market conditions [41][47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][57]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the power energy industry is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months due to favorable industry fundamentals [57]. - The report highlights significant growth in electricity consumption and generation capacity, with a 4.60% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption from January to September 2025 [17][21]. - The report notes a substantial increase in new power generation capacity, particularly in thermal and wind power, with a 51.18% year-on-year growth in new installed capacity [19][21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the period from November 3 to November 7, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.82%, while the power equipment index increased by 4.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.16 percentage points [10][11]. - Among the 31 first-level industries, the power equipment sector ranked first with a 4.98% increase [11][16]. Power Industry Operation - In September 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 888.6 billion kWh, marking a 4.50% year-on-year increase [17]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7767.5 billion kWh, with a 4.60% year-on-year growth [17]. - The new installed generation capacity from January to September 2025 was 366.73 million kW, reflecting a 51.18% year-on-year increase [19][21]. - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2368 hours, a decrease of 251 hours year-on-year [29]. New Power System Situation Photovoltaics - The price of polysilicon remained stable at an average of 52 yuan/kg as of November 5, 2025 [36]. Energy Storage - By the end of the first half of 2025, China's operational energy storage projects had a cumulative installed capacity of 164.3 GW, a 59% year-on-year increase [40]. Lithium Batteries - As of November 7, 2025, the price of lithium carbonate was 77,500 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease [42]. Charging Piles - As of the end of September 2025, the total number of charging infrastructure units reached 18.063 million, a year-on-year increase of 57.99% [49].