中原证券发布研报称，9月，多晶硅料、硅片、电池和光伏组件价格均出现上涨，但上游价格涨幅高于 下游。光伏玻璃受龙头企业减产，行业库存降低，供给量收缩等因素影响，价格逐步回暖。展望后市， 前期抢装后整体市场乏力，集中式项目拉动装机需求，考虑到终端组件价格承接力度以及反内卷措施的 影响，光伏产业链价格将趋于平稳。 消息面上，根据国家能源局数据，8月国内光伏新增装机7.4GW，同比下滑55.3%，环比下滑33.3%。东 吴证券指出，三季度国内终端需求支撑偏弱，排产端暂时小幅下降，政策引导光伏反内卷力度强，硅料 成为主要抓手，当前价格50元/kg+，硅片和电池顺价，组件待观察终端需求。 智通财经APP获悉，光伏股集体回落，截至发稿，新特能源(01799)跌7.36%，报8.31港元；福莱特玻璃 (06865)跌6.54%，报11.72港元；信义光能(00968)跌4.45%，报3.65港元；福耀玻璃(03606)跌2.46%，报 74港元。 ...

光伏股集体回落，截至发稿，新特能源(01799)跌7.36%，报8.31港元；福莱特玻璃(06865)跌6.54%，报 11.72港元；信义光能(00968)跌4.45%，报3.65港元；福耀玻璃（600660）(03606)跌2.46%，报74港元。 消息面上，根据国家能源局数据，8月国内光伏新增装机7.4GW，同比下滑55.3%，环比下滑33.3%。东 吴证券指出，三季度国内终端需求支撑偏弱，排产端暂时小幅下降，政策引导光伏反内卷力度强，硅料 成为主要抓手，当前价格50元/kg+，硅片和电池顺价，组件待观察终端需求。 中原证券发布研报称，9月，多晶硅料、硅片、电池和光伏组件价格均出现上涨，但上游价格涨幅高于 下游。光伏玻璃受龙头企业减产，行业库存降低，供给量收缩等因素影响，价格逐步回暖。展望后市， 前期抢装后整体市场乏力，集中式项目拉动装机需求，考虑到终端组件价格承接力度以及反内卷措施的 影响，光伏产业链价格将趋于平稳。 ...

部分光伏股早盘走高，截至发稿，新特能源(01799)涨7.07%，报9.24港元；福莱特（601865）玻璃 (06865)涨5.56%，报12.52港元；协鑫科技(03800)涨3.73%，报1.39港元；信义光能(00968)涨3.22%，报 3.85港元。 消息面上，9月以来，光伏产业链价格持续走高。中原证券（601375）发布研报称，9月，多晶硅料、硅 片、电池和光伏组件价格均出现上涨，但上游价格涨幅高于下游。光伏玻璃受龙头企业减产，行业库存 降低，供给量收缩等因素影响，价格逐步回暖。展望后市，前期抢装后整体市场乏力，集中式项目拉动 装机需求，考虑到终端组件价格承接力度以及反内卷措施的影响，光伏产业链价格将趋于平稳。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，部分光伏股早盘走高，截至发稿，新特能源(01799)涨7.07%，报9.24港元；福莱特 玻璃(06865)涨5.56%，报12.52港元；协鑫科技(03800)涨3.73%，报1.39港元；信义光能(00968)涨 3.22%，报3.85港元。 消息面上，9月以来，光伏产业链价格持续走高。中原证券发布研报称，9月，多晶硅料、硅片、电池和 光伏组件价格均出现上涨，但上游价格涨幅高于下游。光伏玻璃受龙头企业减产，行业库存降低，供给 量收缩等因素影响，价格逐步回暖。展望后市，前期抢装后整体市场乏力，集中式项目拉动装机需求， 考虑到终端组件价格承接力度以及反内卷措施的影响，光伏产业链价格将趋于平稳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to experience a supply-demand turning point due to "anti-involution," with a focus on the strong cyclical attributes of polysilicon and photovoltaic glass segments [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has established two main strategies: "price increase" and "production limit," aimed at alleviating excessive low-price competition [1][2] - The current round of "anti-involution" differs from previous industry self-discipline efforts in three key aspects: enhanced policy determination with punitive measures, strengthened industry execution leading to rising polysilicon prices, and prolonged loss periods in the polysilicon segment highlighting the dangers of "involution-style" competition [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Economic Indicators - Polysilicon prices have become a barometer for the effectiveness of "anti-involution," with the average price rising to 50,000 yuan/ton, and a potential net profit of 7,000 yuan/ton based on a 70% operating rate [3] - The current low operating rate in the industry increases unit depreciation and other costs, indicating that polysilicon prices have further upward potential to achieve breakeven [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus of the current photovoltaic market is not on the specific mechanisms of supply-side optimization but on the clear determination for "anti-involution," which is expected to lead to price recovery and a healthier industry structure [4]

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry showed marginal improvement in Q2 performance, with expectations for measures to curb low-price competition and improve industry standards in the second half of the year [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to curb low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity during a recent industry meeting [1] - The photovoltaic industry is currently at a historically low valuation level, presenting an opportunity for valuation recovery under the backdrop of anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - After the end of the domestic photovoltaic installation rush, new installation demand has significantly declined, with July's new capacity down 47.55% year-on-year [2] - The export of photovoltaic components remains weak, with a 3% month-on-month decrease in June [2] - The demand in the Asia-Pacific market continues to decline, while imports in the Middle East, Americas, and Africa are increasing [2] Group 3 - The supply of polysilicon has increased month-on-month, but the overall supply-demand situation remains unbalanced [3] - Major manufacturers are reducing production to alleviate inventory pressure, leading to a decrease in the supply of silicon wafers [3] - The inventory days for photovoltaic glass have returned to previous low levels due to production cuts by leading companies [3] Group 4 - Prices in the photovoltaic industry chain have remained stable, with slight increases in polysilicon prices and minor rebounds in silicon wafer and solar cell prices [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has not yet been formally implemented, leading to moderate price increases [4] - Short-term price trends are expected to remain stable [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the solar photovoltaic industry Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry in China has seen significant growth, with a total installed capacity exceeding 1.48 billion kilowatts, surpassing thermal power for the first time [7][22] - The report highlights the need for the photovoltaic industry to enhance its low-carbon transformation and environmental performance, as it still faces challenges related to carbon emissions and resource consumption [7][11][17] Summary by Sections Background - China leads global renewable energy growth, contributing nearly 64% of the world's new capacity in 2024, with a total installed capacity reaching 1.889 billion kilowatts [18][22] - The renewable energy sector is expected to grow at an annual rate of 16.6% to meet global climate goals by 2030 [25] Evaluation of Photovoltaic Industry - The evaluation project initiated by IPE and PECC includes 55 photovoltaic-related companies, assessing their environmental performance and carbon emissions [7][31] - The evaluation uses the CITI and CATI indices to quantify the companies' green supply chain management and climate action [8][35] Key Findings - Renewable energy utilization among photovoltaic companies has significantly increased, with 40 companies reporting a total of 57.1 million megawatt-hours of renewable energy used in 2024, leading to a reduction of over 32.55 million tons of CO2 equivalent [10][54] - Despite improvements, carbon emissions remain high, with 44 companies reporting a total of 105 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions from their operations [11][54] - The report indicates that while many companies are setting renewable energy targets, the overall progress in decarbonizing the supply chain is still limited [12][54] Recommendations - The report suggests that photovoltaic companies should focus on enhancing their green competitiveness and accelerating their low-carbon transformation to contribute to global energy transition efforts [17][28]

Group 1 - The article discusses the four inflation decline cycles since 1993, with the current cycle (2022-2024) influenced by the real estate downturn, local government debt, and rapid supply growth in certain industries [1][10][45] - The current deflation index briefly touched bottom in Q1 2024 but remains weak, with Q2 2024 hitting a low of -1.2% [1][10][11] - The CRB index and the South China index show diverging trends, indicating that the current low inflation is primarily driven by domestic pricing of bulk commodities [1][13][54] Group 2 - The significant decline in domestic pricing of commodities in Q3 2024 is attributed to the pressure on construction demand due to debt issues, while the decline in Q2 2025 is linked to an oversupply of raw materials following a brief recovery in the real estate sector [2][16][17] - The economic "supply-demand ratio" simulated for Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 is 1.63 and 1.49, respectively, indicating mismatches in supply and demand in the construction and emerging industries [2][16][57] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, four key macroeconomic features are highlighted: continued moderate slowdown in the US and Europe, geopolitical disturbances affecting commodities, accelerated domestic infrastructure projects, and the potential for improved supply-demand relationships due to "anti-involution" policies [2][19][61] - The article suggests that the pressure on price levels may have peaked, with the Q2 2024 deflation index likely being the lowest point of this cycle [2][19][61] Group 4 - Specific indicators for PPI include favorable base effects in the second half of the year, leading indicators suggesting continued recovery in industrial prices, and key commodity prices remaining at relatively low historical levels [3][23][24] - The internal drivers of PPI have changed, with new materials and technologies gaining significance in influencing price movements since 2021 [3][28][29] Group 5 - The article emphasizes the importance of housing prices, noting that the national second-hand housing prices have not yet stabilized, which could constrain inflation and consumer spending [6][34][35] - The risk premium in the real estate market has reached a historical high, suggesting a potential for price stabilization in the short term [6][34][36] Group 6 - The comprehensive assessment of price data for the second half of the year indicates a potential mild increase in PPI and CPI, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a return to positive inflation levels by Q4 2024 [7][38][39] - Structural opportunities in the price domain include the expansion of the black industrial chain driven by construction demand, the impact of "anti-involution" policies on manufacturing prices, and supply constraints in key commodities due to global supply chain shifts [7][42][41]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price increases in polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon wafers, and solar cells, while photovoltaic module prices are lagging behind. The market for polysilicon has not yet shown substantial recovery, requiring more positive factors for further performance [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Industry Dynamics - The central financial committee proposed to regulate low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, guiding companies to enhance product quality and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held discussions with photovoltaic companies, emphasizing the need for comprehensive governance of low-price competition [1]. - Specific policies for capacity reduction in the photovoltaic industry are expected to be gradually introduced in the second half of the year, which will accelerate the industry's recovery [1]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - In June 2025, the domestic newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 14.36 GW, a year-on-year decline of 38.45%, while the cumulative new capacity for the first half of the year reached 212.21 GW, a year-on-year increase of 107.07% [2]. - In July, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 107,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.7%, but a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% for the cumulative production from January to July [3]. - The price of polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon wafers, and solar cells has significantly increased, while the price of photovoltaic modules has not yet responded similarly [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The industry is currently at a historically low valuation level, and as capacity reduction progresses, supply and demand are expected to improve [4]. - It is recommended to focus on "capacity clearance" and "new technology iteration" as key investment themes, particularly in leading companies in polysilicon, photovoltaic glass, BC cells, and perovskite cells [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic index saw a significant rebound in July, with the index rising by 9.73%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which had a return of 5.47% during the same period [4][9]. - All sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry experienced growth, with polysilicon, silicon wafers, and photovoltaic glass leading the gains [12][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures aimed at addressing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, which is expected to lead to the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic index showed a strong upward trend in July, with a daily average transaction amount of 29.935 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [9]. - All sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry reported gains, with polysilicon prices increasing by 33.00%, silicon wafers by 23.38%, and photovoltaic glass by 16.95% [12][15]. Industry and Company Dynamics - The central government has initiated measures to regulate low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to enhance product quality and phase out outdated capacity [6][16]. - Domestic demand for photovoltaic installations saw a sharp decline after the end of the installation rush, with June's new installations dropping to 14.36 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 38.45% [19]. - The export of photovoltaic components showed signs of improvement, with a month-on-month increase in May [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "capacity clearance" and "new technology iteration" themes, particularly in polysilicon, photovoltaic glass, BC cells, and perovskite cell leading companies [6][4]. - The photovoltaic industry is currently valued at historical lows, and as capacity reduction progresses, supply and demand dynamics are expected to improve [6].