Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the solar photovoltaic industry Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry in China has seen significant growth, with a total installed capacity exceeding 1.48 billion kilowatts, surpassing thermal power for the first time [7][22] - The report highlights the need for the photovoltaic industry to enhance its low-carbon transformation and environmental performance, as it still faces challenges related to carbon emissions and resource consumption [7][11][17] Summary by Sections Background - China leads global renewable energy growth, contributing nearly 64% of the world's new capacity in 2024, with a total installed capacity reaching 1.889 billion kilowatts [18][22] - The renewable energy sector is expected to grow at an annual rate of 16.6% to meet global climate goals by 2030 [25] Evaluation of Photovoltaic Industry - The evaluation project initiated by IPE and PECC includes 55 photovoltaic-related companies, assessing their environmental performance and carbon emissions [7][31] - The evaluation uses the CITI and CATI indices to quantify the companies' green supply chain management and climate action [8][35] Key Findings - Renewable energy utilization among photovoltaic companies has significantly increased, with 40 companies reporting a total of 57.1 million megawatt-hours of renewable energy used in 2024, leading to a reduction of over 32.55 million tons of CO2 equivalent [10][54] - Despite improvements, carbon emissions remain high, with 44 companies reporting a total of 105 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions from their operations [11][54] - The report indicates that while many companies are setting renewable energy targets, the overall progress in decarbonizing the supply chain is still limited [12][54] Recommendations - The report suggests that photovoltaic companies should focus on enhancing their green competitiveness and accelerating their low-carbon transformation to contribute to global energy transition efforts [17][28]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 1993年以来经历了四轮通胀回落周期，前三轮主要背景依次为亚洲金融危机、全球次贷危机，以及欧债危机余波和国内产能周期叠加。本轮背景（2022- 2024 ） 主 要 是 房 地 产 周 期 下 台 阶 、 地 方 化 债 、 部 分 产 业 供 给 增 长 过 快 等 三 大 因 素 叠 加 。 过 去 三 轮 周 期 的 平 减 指 数 季 度 谷 底 读 数 分 别 为-1.61%、-1.35%、-0.28%，本轮平减指数于2024年一季度短暂触底，但后续走势仍较弱，今年二季度再度触及-1.2%的本轮周期低位。 第二， 为什么会出现这种情况？我们如果以CRB指数、南华综合指数两个指标的同比作为"外部"和"内部"的价格坐标，CRB同比谷底在2023年3月，后续整体震 荡上行，最新的2025年7月数据仍延续新高；南华综合指数同比自2024年三季度出现再度下行，并在2025年5月一度创下本轮新低。若以"GDP平减指数 VS 螺 铜比"（螺纹钢和铜分别代表内外定价因素）来观测，其经验走势吻合度也较高，两 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price increases in polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon wafers, and solar cells, while photovoltaic module prices are lagging behind. The market for polysilicon has not yet shown substantial recovery, requiring more positive factors for further performance [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Industry Dynamics - The central financial committee proposed to regulate low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, guiding companies to enhance product quality and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held discussions with photovoltaic companies, emphasizing the need for comprehensive governance of low-price competition [1]. - Specific policies for capacity reduction in the photovoltaic industry are expected to be gradually introduced in the second half of the year, which will accelerate the industry's recovery [1]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - In June 2025, the domestic newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 14.36 GW, a year-on-year decline of 38.45%, while the cumulative new capacity for the first half of the year reached 212.21 GW, a year-on-year increase of 107.07% [2]. - In July, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 107,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.7%, but a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% for the cumulative production from January to July [3]. - The price of polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon wafers, and solar cells has significantly increased, while the price of photovoltaic modules has not yet responded similarly [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The industry is currently at a historically low valuation level, and as capacity reduction progresses, supply and demand are expected to improve [4]. - It is recommended to focus on "capacity clearance" and "new technology iteration" as key investment themes, particularly in leading companies in polysilicon, photovoltaic glass, BC cells, and perovskite cells [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic index saw a significant rebound in July, with the index rising by 9.73%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which had a return of 5.47% during the same period [4][9]. - All sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry experienced growth, with polysilicon, silicon wafers, and photovoltaic glass leading the gains [12][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures aimed at addressing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, which is expected to lead to the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic index showed a strong upward trend in July, with a daily average transaction amount of 29.935 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [9]. - All sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry reported gains, with polysilicon prices increasing by 33.00%, silicon wafers by 23.38%, and photovoltaic glass by 16.95% [12][15]. Industry and Company Dynamics - The central government has initiated measures to regulate low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to enhance product quality and phase out outdated capacity [6][16]. - Domestic demand for photovoltaic installations saw a sharp decline after the end of the installation rush, with June's new installations dropping to 14.36 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 38.45% [19]. - The export of photovoltaic components showed signs of improvement, with a month-on-month increase in May [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "capacity clearance" and "new technology iteration" themes, particularly in polysilicon, photovoltaic glass, BC cells, and perovskite cell leading companies [6][4]. - The photovoltaic industry is currently valued at historical lows, and as capacity reduction progresses, supply and demand dynamics are expected to improve [6].

Market Overview - In the past five trading days (July 4 - July 10), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.18% [2] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.42 trillion yuan, down by 180.52 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among industries, real estate, media, and comprehensive sectors saw the highest gains, while non-ferrous metals, defense, and home appliances experienced the largest declines [2] Inflation and Price Trends - On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released June inflation data, showing that the CPI year-on-year growth turned positive, with a marginal reduction in the month-on-month decline [2] - The PPI continued to decline both year-on-year and month-on-month in June, with expectations of ongoing negative growth due to global demand uncertainties and seasonal factors affecting domestic pricing [3] Policy Developments - The "anti-involution" initiative has expanded its scope, with preliminary effects observed. On July 7, 33 construction-related state-owned and private enterprises jointly called for resisting "involutionary" competition [3] - The solar industry has shown positive price signals, with polysilicon prices rising by 33.3% since the beginning of July, indicating a potential supply-side clearing [3] Investment Strategy - The decline in PPI indicates continued short-term profit pressures for companies, but the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy strengthens medium to long-term profit recovery expectations [4] - Future market trends will depend on the balance between weak short-term performance and strong long-term expectations, with potential for continued upward movement if economic data does not show significant decline [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the banking sector are driven by multiple measures to encourage insurance capital entry and a low interest rate environment [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive supply-side clearing, presenting recovery opportunities in the power equipment and building materials sectors [4] - The TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries may present thematic investment opportunities due to AI trends and international expansion [4]

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing price increases, with polysilicon manufacturers raising prices to a range of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton, although actual transactions at this level have not yet been observed [1] - There is a strong determination among polysilicon manufacturers to maintain prices, and some downstream companies may accept slight price increases to avoid future risks of further price hikes [1] - The macro-level supply-side clearing guidance is expected to provide a framework for the industry's "anti-involution," but actual implementation may take time [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities suggests focusing on "capacity clearing" and "new technology iteration" as two main lines for investment [2] - In terms of capacity clearing, attention should be paid to leading companies in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass sectors, particularly those with significant losses and clear capacity clearing expectations [2] - New technology advancements, particularly in BC cells and perovskite cell commercial applications, are also highlighted as areas of interest [2]

Industry Overview - Multiple silicon wafer companies have raised their prices, with increases ranging from 8% to 11.7% for different sizes of wafers [1] - The price hike is primarily attributed to the rising costs of upstream silicon materials, although the downstream battery segment's ability to absorb these price increases remains uncertain due to slowing terminal demand in the domestic photovoltaic market [1] - The average transaction price of silicon materials has increased by over 6% week-on-week [1] - In June, the monthly output of silicon wafers was approximately 58.2 GW, but due to limited terminal demand, production is expected to decline to around 51.8 GW in July [1] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to respond to the price adjustments, with polysilicon prices being raised to avoid price competition, and photovoltaic glass manufacturers actively reducing production to enhance prices [1] Company Insights - Shuangliang Energy has achieved superior performance in single crystal silicon growth speed, shoulder counts, oxygen content, and minority carrier lifetime compared to industry averages, gaining recognition from many high-quality downstream customers [2] - The majority of Shuangliang Energy's silicon wafers sold are N-type, with a steadily increasing market share in the domestic market [2] - JA Solar Technology operates as an integrated enterprise in the photovoltaic industry, focusing on the research, development, production, and sales of photovoltaic silicon wafers, cells, and modules, as well as the development, construction, and operation of solar power plants [2]

Summary of the Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solar industry is currently facing challenges related to supply-side reform and capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon segment, where prices are nearing the cash cost line of leading companies, leading to widespread industry losses [1][13] - The market has divergent views on solar policies, particularly regarding their effectiveness, the definition of minimum cost pricing, and execution methods, which has resulted in varied outlooks for the future [1][4][5] Key Points and Arguments - The future development of the solar industry depends on the implementation of supply-side optimization measures. The government has shown determination to push reforms, but specific implementation details remain uncertain, necessitating close attention to policy developments to adjust investment strategies [1][6] - Investment opportunities in the solar sector are expected to arise post-policy implementation, focusing on financially healthy companies such as Foster and Sungrow, as well as companies related to silver-free technology and integrated firms [1][10][12] - Global solar installation growth is projected to maintain a rate of 15% to 20% until 2030, driven by increasing global electricity demand and improved supply-demand relationships, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook [1][12] Market Dynamics - The solar sector is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with polysilicon prices not rebounding despite a surge in downstream component prices due to installation demand in early 2025. This has led to a situation where polysilicon inventory remains high, while silicon wafer and battery cell inventories are relatively healthy [1][20][19] - The price-to-book ratio (PB) of the solar industry is at a historical low, suggesting potential for recovery as supply-demand balance is restored and policies limit capacity expansion. A rebound in polysilicon prices could significantly improve manufacturers' profitability [1][21][30] Investment Opportunities - Current investment opportunities in the solar sector include: 1. **Financially Healthy Companies**: Companies like Foster and Sungrow, which have solid financials, are easier to invest in from a secondary market perspective [10] 2. **New Technology Firms**: Companies involved in silver-free technology are worth monitoring for potential higher elasticity [10] 3. **Integrated Companies**: These firms may offer greater elasticity due to their financial health [11] - The market is currently characterized by limited institutional holdings, particularly in key stocks like Sungrow, indicating potential for growth as policies are implemented [3][17] Challenges and Divergences - The main challenges facing the solar industry include: 1. **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: Despite discussions on industry self-discipline and policies, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved [2][8] 2. **Policy Effectiveness**: There is skepticism regarding whether policies can effectively address supply-side issues, with significant uncertainty surrounding the execution of legal provisions related to minimum cost pricing [4][9] 3. **Market Price Definition**: Disagreements on how to define market prices and assess profit margins add to the uncertainty [9] Future Outlook - The solar industry is expected to undergo a cyclical recovery, with potential for significant growth driven by supply-side reforms, technological advancements, and changing market demands. The focus should be on identifying financially sound companies and new technologies that can capitalize on these trends [25][29] - Historical patterns indicate that the solar industry has experienced significant downturns due to external factors, but the current landscape suggests that with proper adjustments, the industry can rebound effectively [26][27] Conclusion - The solar industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for recovery and growth contingent on effective policy implementation and market adjustments. Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding policy developments and to focus on companies with strong financials and innovative technologies to maximize returns in the evolving market landscape [31]

Key Points - The report highlights the strong performance of the photovoltaic industry, with a record high of 92.92 GW of new installations in May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 388.03% [14][15] - The logistics industry in China shows a slight improvement, with the logistics prosperity index rising to 50.8% in June, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5][8] - The banking and electric power sectors are leading the A-share market, with a steady upward trend observed in recent trading sessions [9][10] - The semiconductor industry continues to grow, with global semiconductor sales reaching $56.96 billion in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [18] - The gaming industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a record number of game approvals in June, indicating strong cultural consumption demand during the summer [33][34] - The automotive industry shows positive trends, with both production and sales of passenger vehicles increasing in May 2025, alongside a significant rise in new energy vehicle exports [39][40] Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown narrow fluctuations, with the average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index at 14.20 times and 38.60 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][9] - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on sectors with expected strong mid-year performance and reasonable valuations, particularly in banking, photovoltaic equipment, and food and beverage industries [8][9][10] Industry Insights - The photovoltaic sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by government policies aimed at increasing solar energy installations and addressing desertification through solar projects [13][14] - The new materials sector is also gaining traction, with a notable increase in the new materials index, which rose by 6.91% in June, outperforming the broader market [17] - The logistics sector's slight recovery reflects a broader trend of economic stabilization, with consumption and investment being the main drivers of growth [5][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the photovoltaic materials sector, particularly those involved in polysilicon and solar glass production, as they are expected to benefit from ongoing industry consolidation and demand growth [15][16] - In the gaming sector, companies leveraging AI technology for game development are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to the expected increase in market demand [34][35] - The automotive sector is advised to be monitored closely, especially companies with strong performance in new energy vehicles, as they are likely to benefit from the growing trend towards electrification [39][40]

Summary of the Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solar industry has been experiencing continuous losses since Q3 2023, with profit margins lower than those of the steel industry in 2015, indicating unprecedented pressure on the sector [1][8] - China's solar capacity accounts for 85% of the global total, but profits are largely captured by overseas operators or tariffs, leading to severe internal competition among domestic companies [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments - The Central Financial Committee's meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition, enhance quality, and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity, which is crucial for preventing deflation and improving industry profitability [1][2][4] - Current market sentiment is positive, with the meeting's signals reminiscent of the 2018 private enterprise symposium, suggesting potential new opportunities for the solar industry [1][5] - The industry is currently in a demand off-season, with production down by 5-10%, and there are rumors of mergers among silicon manufacturers, contributing to market volatility [3][7] Challenges Facing the Industry - Continuous price declines are leading to losses for companies, with many potentially masking their true financial conditions through accounting practices [3][8] - Cash flow issues are prevalent, and without timely policy interventions, a natural market clearing in 2026-2027 could result in significant bankruptcies [3][4] - The current overcapacity is primarily among private enterprises, not outdated production, complicating efforts to reduce capacity effectively [6] Positive Factors Supporting Industry Development - The timing for policy intervention is critical, as companies have not yet exhausted their cash flows, and immediate action could prevent large-scale bankruptcies in the coming years [4][5] - The meeting's high-level attention and the emphasis on addressing internal competition provide strong market expectations for July, which is typically a slow season [2][5] Investment Strategies - Focus on rigid supply segments such as polysilicon and glass, which have a favorable competitive landscape and high concentration [9][10] - Invest in high-quality production capacities, particularly in technology iterations like BC solar cells [9][10] - Consider materials with reduced silver usage, such as silver paste, which are closely tied to silver price fluctuations and have rapid technological advancements [9][10] Conclusion - The solar industry is at a critical juncture, facing significant challenges but also potential opportunities for recovery and growth through effective policy measures and strategic investments [1][4][9]