Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for stock index: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [2] - Investment rating for treasury bonds: Bullish in the short term [3] Group 2: Core Views - For stock index: The easing of Sino-US trade tensions has boosted a strong rebound in US stocks. Traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates only twice this year, and Goldman Sachs has postponed its Fed rate cut expectation from July to December. The Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement was released, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that China and the US have cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The Sino - US negotiation process has exceeded expectations, and the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward bias. However, the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to the level before the implementation of tariffs, and there is still pressure from additional tariffs in the current fundamentals, as well as the expected disturbance of Trump's changing attitude. When the market sentiment is high, attention should be paid to the possible callback risk after reaching the previous high [1] - For treasury bonds: Considering the relatively high density and intensity of recent domestic policy introductions, the market's expectations for the number and cumulative amplitude of subsequent interest rate cuts will also decline to some extent, and the potential downward space for bond yields is relatively limited. The low - odds situation in the bond market will not improve significantly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the development of reverse trading and patiently wait for the market to gradually stabilize from the high - volatility environment [2] Group 3: Market Review - Stock index: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.23%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.77%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.48%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.56% [4] - Treasury bonds: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.46%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.20%, the 30 - year main contract fell 1.31%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.08% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Stock index: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward bias [5] - Treasury bonds: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight downward bias [7] Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3853.00 | 1.23 | 61843 | 152926 | | 2025/05/12 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2686.60 | 0.77 | 31684 | 50672 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5688.00 | 1.48 | 52449 | 101404 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6037.00 | 1.56 | 134023 | 170704 | | 2025/05/12 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.46 | 110974 | 160433 | | 2025/05/12 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.89 | - 0.20 | 77590 | 129518 | | 2025/05/12 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.74 | - 1.31 | 122849 | 71751 | | 2025/05/12 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.28 | - 0.08 | 48586 | 74392 | [9]