单季度看，2025Q3，1）收入端：公司实现营收 245 亿元，同比-17%；毛利为 11.8 亿元，同比-7.7%%，毛利率为 4.8%，同比+0.5pct。2）利润端：实现归 母净利润 7.3 亿元，同比-17%；归母净利率 3.0%，同比持平。扣非归母净利 6.9 亿元，同比-13.5%，扣非归母净利率 2.8%，同比+0.1pct。3）投资收益：4.6 亿 元，同比-5.9%；4）其他收益：5.6 亿元，同比-1.9%。 中国外运（601598.SH）2025 年三季报点评 路凯股权出售已完成交割，中美关系阶段性缓和公司 Q4 经营有望改善 2025 年 10 月 31 日 ➢ 事件概述：2025 年 10 月 27 日，公司发布 2025 三季度报，10 月 21 日， 公司出售路凯国际 25%股权已完成交割，预计带来 16.5 亿元的投资收益，得益 于中美关系阶段性缓和，公司 Q4 经营有望改善。 2025Q1-3，1）收入端：公司实现营收 750 亿元，同比-13%，营收下滑主要受 运价下降影响；毛利为 42.9 亿元，同比+2.4%，毛利率为 5.7%，同比+0.8pct。 2）利润端：实现归 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant cost control effectiveness, resulting in resilient operating performance despite external pressures [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from its strong market position, digital transformation initiatives, and the "new carrier" model, which aligns with trends in industry globalization and supply chain integration [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of approximately 750.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.79 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year [1][8] - The gross profit margin improved to approximately 5.71%, up 0.83 percentage points from 4.88% in the same period last year, indicating strong cost management and business structure optimization [1] - Investment income for the first three quarters reached 1.632 billion yuan, an increase of 11.18% year-on-year, although core investment income from joint ventures decreased by 24.37% [1] Business Segment Performance - The professional logistics segment showed steady growth, with contract logistics, project logistics, and chemical logistics volumes increasing by 2.1%, 2.1%, and 6.3% respectively [1] - The sea freight agency business performed well, with a volume increase of 7.6%, while air freight and rail agency volumes declined by 11.8% and 12.5% respectively due to strategic adjustments in response to external policy changes [1] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics business saw a significant contraction, with volumes dropping by 71.3%, while the logistics e-commerce platform business grew by 55.4% [1]

截至6月30日，中国外运股东户数5.05万，较上期增加5.04%；人均流通股104337股，较上期减少 4.81%。2025年1月-6月，中国外运实现营业收入505.23亿元，同比减少10.37%；归母净利润19.47亿元， 同比增长0.10%。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出149.11万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出191.81万元，占比 1.33%；大单买入1932.89万元，占比13.43%，卖出1890.19万元，占比13.13%。 中国外运今年以来股价涨20.20%，近5个交易日跌4.13%，近20日涨7.19%，近60日涨20.66%。 今年以来中国外运已经2次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为9月29日，当日龙虎榜净买入977.65万 元；买入总计8694.35万元 ，占总成交额比17.10%；卖出总计7716.70万元 ，占总成交额比15.18%。 资料显示，中国外运股份有限公司位于香港九龙观塘海滨道133号万兆丰大楼20楼F及G室,北京朝阳区 安定路5号院10号楼外运大厦B座，成立日期2002年11月20日，上市日期2019年1月18日，公司主营业务 涉及专业物流、代理及相关业 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Freight Forwarding experienced a significant drop of 6.98% in stock price on September 29, with a trading volume of 5.08 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 47.487 billion yuan [1] Business Overview - The company's main business segments include professional logistics, agency and related services, and e-commerce, operating through four divisions: freight forwarding, logistics, warehousing, and terminal services [2][3] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: agency and related services 63.60%, professional logistics 26.46%, and e-commerce 9.94% [7] Dividend Information - The company's dividend yields over the past three years were 5.21%, 5.53%, and 5.42% [3] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 9.719 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.657 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [8] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 50.523 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.947 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.10% year-on-year [7][8] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 50,500, an increase of 5.04% from the previous period, with an average of 104,337 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 4.81% [7] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and E Fund Stable Income Bond A, with notable reductions in holdings [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China National Freight's revenue has significantly increased by 37% from 2018 to 2024, while maintaining a stable gross profit of around 5.5 billion yuan [1] - The annualized growth rates for agency and related business revenue, gross profit, and operating profit are 6%, 7%, and 3% respectively, indicating steady growth [1] - The e-commerce business shows a rapid revenue growth rate of 28%, linked to the development of cross-border e-commerce [1] Group 2 - Nearly half of China National Freight's operating profit comes from investment income, primarily from the joint venture with DHL, which is a leader in service quality and timeliness [2] - The rapid rise of cross-border e-commerce presents significant opportunities for the global air freight market, although future growth may be impacted by slowing import and export trade [2] Group 3 - The company plans to transfer a 25% stake in a subsidiary, expected to generate approximately 1.793 billion yuan in investment income [3] - The issuance of a REIT is projected to increase the company's net profit by about 390 million yuan for the year 2025 [3] Group 4 - The profit forecast for 2025 has been raised to 5.2 billion yuan due to the stake transfer and REIT issuance, while 2026-2027 profit forecasts are set at 3.5 billion yuan each year [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite industry pressures in shipping and air freight [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5][15]. Core Views - The company has successfully navigated through 30 years of the container shipping cycle, establishing itself as a leading player in the Asian regional container shipping market. The supply-demand balance in the region is tight, and freight rates are expected to remain stable. The company has built a differentiated competitive advantage and provides robust shareholder returns, with cumulative dividends of HKD 38.9 billion from 2010 to 2024, averaging a payout ratio of 78% [3][10][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1991, has become a leading shipping logistics enterprise in Asia, focusing on container transportation, international freight forwarding, and integrated logistics services. It operates a high-density service network covering 81 major ports across 17 countries and regions, with a fleet of 114 container ships, of which 100 are owned [10][20][24]. Industry Supply and Demand - The demand for container shipping in Asia is supported by high trade volumes among developed economies and the growing trade between China and ASEAN countries. The container trade volume between China and ASEAN is expected to grow by 8.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with container volumes from China to Southeast Asia increasing by 19.7% [32][33][40]. On the supply side, the feeder vessel fleet is experiencing limited growth, which may lead to supply constraints [49][63]. Competitive Advantages - The company's management team has an average of over 28 years of experience in the shipping industry, enabling it to navigate through various cycles effectively. The company focuses on providing differentiated services through a comprehensive logistics network and has a strong operational efficiency, with a low cost per container of USD 463, down 8.4% year-on-year [10][67][72]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of USD 3.285 billion, USD 3.353 billion, and USD 3.406 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.4%, 2.1%, and 1.6%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be USD 1.122 billion, USD 1.072 billion, and USD 1.011 billion during the same period [15][50]. Given its competitive advantages and stable shareholder returns, the report maintains an "Accumulate" rating [3][15].

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines China National Freight's commitment to building a world-class smart logistics platform, emphasizing sustainable development, technological innovation, and social responsibility in its operations [1][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - China National Freight was established on November 20, 2002, and is listed on both the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8]. - The company aims to provide end-to-end supply chain solutions and services, focusing on customer needs and industry trends [8]. Group 2: Key Performance Overview - The company reported significant achievements in logistics, ranking second globally and first in Asia for maritime freight forwarding, and fifth globally and first in Asia for air freight forwarding [8]. - The report includes various performance metrics, such as total revenue, profit, total assets, and environmental impact data [8]. Group 3: Sustainable Development Initiatives - China National Freight is committed to achieving carbon peak by 2030 and aims for carbon neutrality by 2060, with a target to reduce carbon emissions intensity by 30% compared to 2020 levels by 2030 [12]. - The company has developed a carbon footprint calculator, which has been used over 4.3 million times to help clients quantify and reduce their carbon emissions [4][14]. Group 4: Technological Innovation - The company has implemented a digital strategy to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, utilizing AI, big data, and IoT technologies [17][18]. - China National Freight has developed over 230 patents and 428 software copyrights, focusing on smart logistics solutions [18]. Group 5: Social Responsibility - The company has initiated various public welfare activities, including disaster relief logistics and educational programs for youth, demonstrating its commitment to social welfare [6][11]. - China National Freight has launched a "Disaster Relief" logistics platform, successfully delivering 195 tons of relief materials to affected areas [6]. Group 6: Governance and Compliance - The company has established a robust governance framework, revising over 20 governance regulations to enhance its sustainability strategy [24]. - It has received the highest A-level rating from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for four consecutive years, reflecting its commitment to governance excellence [24].