2025 年 08 月 25 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 147 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 Q2 毛利率创新高，Q4 有望开启"一车双能"周期--小鹏汽车-W/乘用车(09868/212805) 点评报告（港股美股） 风险偏好提升，两融明显提速--资产配置报告 主营业务稳步发展，控股合并完善供应链条--圣农发展/养殖业(002299/211107) 公司点评 业绩同比高增，养殖成本持续优化--牧原股份/养殖业(002714/211107) 公司点评 魔芋延续高景气，Q2 毛销差同比增速转正--盐津铺子/休闲食品(002847/213408) 公司点评 下游需求持续回暖，2025 上半年公司归母净利润同比增加--国瓷材料/电子化学品Ⅱ(300285/212706) 公司点 评 Q2 归母净利润同比大增，两机订单保障持续增长动力--应流股份/通用设备(603308/216401) 公司动态研究 高端材料快速放量，上半年业绩同比高增--圣泉集团/塑料(605589/2122 ...

其中，沃尔玛中国电商业务净销售额同比增长39%。分业态看，支撑沃尔玛中国业绩表现的是山姆会员 店，第二季度山姆会员店交易单量实现了双位数同比增长，山姆中国于过去12个月开了8家新店，2025 年第二季度则开了2家新店。 北京商报讯（记者 王维祎）近日，沃尔玛发布2025年第二季度财报，沃尔玛中国实现净销售额58亿美 元，同比增长30.1%。 ...

华尔街普遍认为，尽管可灵AI的账面收入数字略显平淡，但其真实的现金流水表现可能远超财报数据，这使得公司给出的全年收入指引显得颇为保守。 高盛预计，可灵的总收入将在未来两年持续快速爬坡，明、后年将分别达到2.5亿美元和3.65亿美元。 最新公布的财报显示，快手二季度业绩超预期，收入同比增长13%至350亿元，调整后净利润同比增长20%，核心广告和电商业务增长强劲。 最引人关注的是，其AI视频生成应用"可灵"二季度收入达2.5亿元，环比增长67%。快手还将2025年全年可灵收入指引上调至1.25亿美元，较此前预期 翻倍。 多家投行认为，快手对可灵给出的盈利指引仍过于保守。 摩根大通表示，尽管这一指引暗示下半年增长相对温和，但可灵的收入确认存在延迟，本季 度实际现金收款可能超过3亿元。 高盛预计，可灵的总收入将在未来两年持续快速爬坡， 明、后年将分别达到2.5亿美元和3.65亿美元。 美银对可灵表现相对乐观，认为2.5亿元收入符合其2.4亿元预期， 强调可灵已成为全球收入最高的AI视频生成平台，该行预计可灵三季度收入将环比继 续增长。 巴克莱则对收入指引表示谨慎，认为从二季度运行率来看，全年1.25亿美元目标显示" ...

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's second-quarter earnings fell short of expectations for the first time in three years, primarily due to rising costs from tariffs, despite strong revenue growth and an optimistic outlook for future sales and earnings [1][3][7]. Financial Performance - Walmart reported second-quarter revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $176.16 billion [4]. - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.68, below the expected $0.74, marking the first time in three years that earnings did not meet projections [5][12]. - The company raised its net sales growth forecast for fiscal 2026 from 3%-4% to 3.75%-4.75%, and slightly adjusted its earnings per share forecast to $2.52-$2.62 [6]. E-commerce Growth - Walmart's e-commerce sales grew by 25% globally and 26% in the U.S., with grocery and other product sales via store delivery increasing nearly 50% [10]. - The CEO highlighted that revenue growth is driven by innovation and execution, with a focus on enhancing digital experiences for customers [10]. Tariff Impact and Cost Management - The company is facing ongoing tariff pressures, which have led to increased costs. Walmart is managing these impacts on a product-by-product basis, absorbing some costs while passing others onto consumers [11]. - Approximately 50 products have seen price increases due to tariffs, including items like frying pans and jeans [11]. Membership Store Performance - Sam's Club reported same-store sales growth of 5.9%, surpassing analyst expectations of 5.2% [13]. - The net profit for Walmart in the second quarter rose to $7.03 billion, or $0.88 per share, significantly higher than the previous year's $4.5 billion or $0.56 per share [12].

沃尔玛第二季度营收达1774亿美元，超出分析师预期的1761.6亿美元。 沃尔玛美国同店销售增长4.6%，高于分析师预期的4%，电商销售在美国市场增长26%。 调整后每股收益0.68美元，不及预期的0.74美元，为三年来首次不及预期。保险索赔、法律 费用和重组成本的增加是主要拖累因素。 首席财务官John David Rainey在财报声明中表示，关税影响的成本"正在持续上升"，但公司正努力通过 加速进口和增加限时折扣来保持低价策略。 沃尔玛二季度营收超预期，电商业务继续保持强劲增长势头，并上调全年销售和盈利预期。但受关税冲 击，成本持续上升，导致其利润三年来首次不及预期。 周四公布的财报显示： 沃尔玛将2026财年净销售增长预期从此前的3%-4%上调至3.75%-4.75%，调整后每股收益预期也小幅 上调至2.52-2.62美元。 受盈利不及预期影响，沃尔玛股价盘前下跌超过3%，投资者对关税成本上升对零售业利润率的潜在冲 击表示担忧。 电商业务强劲增长 沃尔玛电商业务继续保持强劲增长势头，全球电商销售增长25%，美国市场增长26%。公司通过门店配 送的杂货和其他商品销售同比增长近50%，其中三分之一的订单为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Lexin Group (LX US), with a target price of $11.80, indicating a potential upside of 84.1% from the current price of $6.41 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The company's profitability is on a continuous improvement path, driven by a decrease in provisioning costs and an increase in technology-enabled revenue [5]. - The net profit for Q2 2025 reached 511 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 126% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19% [5]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the e-commerce sector, with transaction amounts significantly increasing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [5]. - Shareholder returns are expected to improve, with a dividend payout ratio increasing from 25% in the first half of 2025 to 30% in the second half [5]. - The asset quality is showing a positive trend, with a decrease in the overdue rate [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Lexin Group are as follows: 13,057 million RMB in 2023, 14,204 million RMB in 2024, and an estimated 13,871 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.3% in 2023 and a decline of 2.3% in 2025 [4][13]. - The net profit is projected to be 2,008 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 82.4% [5][8]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is expected to be below 4 times in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation [5]. - The report anticipates a net take rate improvement, with projections of 1.88% for 2025 and 2.47% for 2026 [8]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 10.52% and has a market capitalization of approximately 849.90 million USD [4]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are 11.43 USD and 1.63 USD, respectively, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [4]. Conclusion - The report concludes that Lexin Group's improving profitability, strong revenue growth in technology-enabled services, and attractive valuation make it a compelling investment opportunity [5][8].

Group 1 - JD.com announced a voluntary public acquisition offer for CECONOMY AG at a cash price of €4.60 per share, valuing the transaction at approximately €2.2 billion, equivalent to over 18 billion RMB [1][2] - The acquisition aims to establish a strategic investment partnership, with JD.com and CECONOMY signing an investment agreement regarding the acquisition offer and future cooperation [1] - Following the completion of the acquisition, Convergenta Invest GmbH will hold 25.35% of CECONOMY's shares as part of the shareholder agreement [1] Group 2 - CECONOMY is a leader in the European consumer electronics retail industry, operating the MediaMarkt and Saturn brands with over 1,000 retail stores across 11 countries [2] - The strategic investment agreement aims to drive CECONOMY's growth while maintaining its independent operations and local technical infrastructure in Europe [2] - CECONOMY has no plans to adjust personnel, employee agreements, or office locations as part of its strategic planning [2]

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that Alibaba Group is focusing on AI as a key driver for transformation and growth in the next decade, aiming to build leading AI models and a competitive cloud computing network to create a new growth engine through "AI + Cloud" [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the past fiscal year, Alibaba exited from investments in Gao Xin Retail and Intime Retail, refocusing on its core e-commerce and cloud businesses. The company’s entertainment segment was renamed to Whale Entertainment, with several business units like Whale Entertainment and Amap achieving quarterly profitability [1]. Strategic Focus - Alibaba reiterated two strategic priorities in its shareholder letter: "User First" and "AI Driven." The company aims to integrate "User First" across all internet platform operations and views AI as a core growth driver and a significant opportunity for future development [1]. International Business - The company expressed confidence in achieving quarterly profitability for its overseas e-commerce business in the next fiscal year, despite it being a heavily invested but currently loss-making segment. In FY2025, Alibaba's international digital commerce group reported a 29% year-on-year revenue increase, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 15.137 billion yuan [2]. Partnership Changes - The annual report indicated a reduction in the number of partners, with 9 partners exiting, bringing the total down from 26 to 17. The retired partners include notable figures such as Fang Yongxin and Zhang Yong, with no new partners added. The current partner list mainly consists of key business leaders and technical heads [2]. Entrepreneurial Mindset - The leadership emphasized that Alibaba is adopting an entrepreneurial mindset to embark on a new journey in the AI era, advocating for a zero-based thinking approach similar to that of a startup [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Kuaishou (01024.HK) experienced a year-on-year growth of 15.4% in e-commerce GMV, reaching RMB 332.3 billion in the first quarter [1] - The average monthly active buyers in the e-commerce segment reached 135 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jihong Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with an opening price of HKD 11 per share and intra-day gains exceeding 60% [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jihong Co., Ltd. started with packaging business and later expanded into cross-border social e-commerce, forming a dual-driven development model [1] - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in July 2016 and has faced multiple inquiries from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding its market activities [1][6] - The company plans to use the funds raised from the Hong Kong listing for overseas market expansion, brand portfolio enhancement, and development of self-owned brands [2][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Jihong Co., Ltd. reported total revenue of approximately CNY 5.53 billion, a year-on-year decline of 17.41% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately CNY 182 million, down 47.28% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was about CNY 160 million, down 50.83% [4] - The cross-border social e-commerce business generated revenue of CNY 336.59 million, a decrease of 20.93%, while the packaging business saw a slight increase of 0.14% to CNY 209.95 million [5] Group 3: Market Strategy and Future Plans - Jihong Co., Ltd. aims to advance its global strategy by expanding overseas operations and establishing partnerships with international companies [5] - The company intends to create a "China standard + localized service" model to provide innovative and sustainable products and services [5] - The company has been recognized for its ability to capture market trends, having engaged in various hot topics such as blockchain and the metaverse [6][7]