11月20日，美国最大零售商沃尔玛公布第三季度亮眼业绩，利润和销售额均超出预期，并上调全年指 引。 在财报公布后，截止发稿沃尔玛美股盘前涨超3%。 营收、每股收益超预期 财报显示，沃尔玛在三季度营收1795亿美元，同比增长5.8%，高于预期的1774.3亿美元；调整后运营收 益72亿美元；调整后每股收益0.62美元，高于分析师预期的0.6美元。 归属于公司的净利润为61.43亿美元，同比增长34.2%。调整后的经营利润为72.46亿美元，同比增长 8.0%，好于市场预期的70.3亿美元。 子品牌山姆会员店的销售额约236亿美元，同比增长3.1%；不含燃油的可比销售额增长约4.4%；电商增 长约22%。 | Walmart U.S. | Q3 FY26 | 03 FY25 | | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Net sales | $120.7 | $114.9 | 55.8 | 5.19 | | Comp sales (ex. fuel)? | 4.596 | 5.396 | NP | 즉 즉 | | Transactions | 1.896 | 3. ...

财报显示，沃尔玛Q3电商业务成为增长亮点。全球电商销售额增长27%，所有业务板块均实现大幅增长。美国市场电商销售额增长28%，由门店配送订 单增加以及广告和第三方市场增长推动。国际市场电商销售额跃升26%，Sam's Club增长22%。 沃尔玛上调2026财年盈利预期，反映出这家全球最大零售商在经济不确定性环境下继续保持强劲增长势头。此次上调预期是在沃尔玛第三季度业绩表 现强劲的背景下做出的：Q3调整后每股收益和营收均超出市场预期。 核心财务指标 Q3营收为1795.0亿美元，同比增长5.8%，高于市场预估的1775.7亿美元； 调整后运营收益达到72亿美元，同样超出分析师预期的70.3亿美元； 调整后每股收益达到0.62美元，超出市场预期的0.60美元。 沃尔玛在第三财季实现销售增长后，上调了其全年销售和盈利预期。双位数的电商增长和跨收入阶层的新客户涌入推动了这一业绩。这家零售巨头的乐 观表现与Target、Home Depot等同业的谨慎态度形成鲜明对比。 财报显示， 沃尔玛预计全年净销售额将增长4.8%至5.1%，高于此前预期的3.75%至4.75%。调整后每股收益预计为2.58至2.63美元，较此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - East Asia Securities has lowered Alibaba's target price from HKD 178 to HKD 196, a decrease of 10%, and downgraded the investment rating from "Buy" to "Hold" [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba is expected to announce its Q2 fiscal results in mid-October, with overall revenue growth anticipated to slow to 4% year-on-year [1] - Cloud business revenue is projected to accelerate growth to over 30%, representing a potential highlight [1] - Revenue from China's e-commerce business is expected to increase by 12% year-on-year, primarily driven by contributions from the flash purchase business [1] Profitability and Investment - The company will need to increase investments in its food delivery and flash purchase businesses, along with a significant rise in capital expenditures related to AI infrastructure, which may continue to pressure adjusted profit margins in the short term [1] Valuation Metrics - The forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for Alibaba over the next 12 months is 21.1 times, which is higher than the average of 19.2 times since its listing in Hong Kong, approximately 0.2 standard deviations above the average [1] - Compared to AI cloud companies listed in Europe and the US, Alibaba still trades at a significant discount [1] - As domestic AI applications become more widespread, the valuation of Alibaba's cloud business is expected to have upward adjustment potential, supporting a valuation recovery [1] - The target price-to-earnings ratio for the fiscal year 2027 is set at 21.8 times, with an adjusted earnings per share forecast of RMB 8.4 for the same fiscal year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The completion of the sale of 25% equity in Lukai International is expected to bring approximately 1.65 billion RMB in investment income, benefiting from the phase of easing Sino-U.S. relations, which may improve the company's Q4 operations [2][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 75 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, primarily due to declining freight rates. However, gross profit increased by 2.4% year-on-year to 4.29 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 5.7%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2025: - Revenue: 75 billion RMB, down 13% year-on-year - Gross profit: 4.29 billion RMB, up 2.4% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 2.68 billion RMB, down 5% year-on-year - Investment income: 1.63 billion RMB, up 11.2% year-on-year [3][6]. - For Q3 2025: - Revenue: 24.5 billion RMB, down 17% year-on-year - Gross profit: 1.18 billion RMB, down 7.7% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 730 million RMB, down 17% year-on-year [3]. Business Segment Performance - Freight forwarding: - Q1-Q3 2025 volumes: - Sea freight: 11.79 million TEUs, up 7.56% - Air freight: 66.4 thousand tons, down 11.82% - Rail freight: 39.2 million TEUs, down 12.5% - Vessel agency: 5.59 million trips, up 16.74% - Warehouse services: 21.54 million tons, up 6.9% [5]. - E-commerce logistics: - Q1-Q3 2025 volumes: - Logistics e-commerce platform: 2.917 million TEUs, up 55.41% - Cross-border e-commerce logistics: 0.46 million shipments, down 72.66% [6]. Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 110.3 billion RMB, 114.5 billion RMB, and 119.5 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 4.2 billion RMB, 4.46 billion RMB, and 4.68 billion RMB [6][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12 for 2025, decreasing to 10 by 2027 [6][7].

E-commerce Sector - The Latin American e-commerce market is still in its early development stage, with an online shopping penetration rate of approximately 14% expected by 2024, compared to 30%-40% in mature markets like the US and China [2][3] - Historical growth in the Latin American e-commerce sector has been slow, with growth rates below 20% before the pandemic and a significant drop in growth post-2022 [2][3] - Key constraints on growth include political instability, slow economic growth (with a 10-year GDP growth rate of only 1.5% for major Latin American countries), and poor logistics infrastructure leading to delivery issues [3][5] Logistics and Delivery - Mercado Libre (Meli) is improving logistics capabilities, with approximately 52% of packages expected to be delivered on the same or next day by Q2 2025, which is expected to enhance overall e-commerce penetration [5][7] - The logistics infrastructure in Brazil shows significant variation in online penetration rates across different product categories, with higher penetration in toys, video games, and electronics compared to apparel and food [6][7] - The cost of logistics relative to product prices is a critical factor affecting online purchasing decisions, with Meli's average logistics cost accounting for about 11%-12% of the average order value [7][8] Market Share and Competition - Meli currently leads the Latin American e-commerce market but faces strong competition in Brazil and Mexico from players like Shopee and Amazon, with a significant portion of the market still held by smaller players [11][13] - The market is expected to consolidate, with a potential increase in Meli's market share from 29% to approximately 39% over the next five years, driven by growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) [20][19] - The competitive landscape suggests that while Meli may maintain its leading position, it will not dominate the market entirely, as multiple platforms continue to compete [19][20] Advertising Revenue - Meli's current monetization rate for its e-commerce business is around 21%, which is significantly higher than the typical rates seen in other markets [22][24] - The company has room for growth in advertising revenue, with projections indicating an increase from 2.1% of GMV in 2024 to potentially 3% by 2030 [25][26] - If Meli's market share increases to around 40%, its advertising revenue could see substantial growth, similar to Amazon's performance in the US market [26][27] Financial Services - Meli's financial services, particularly payment and credit, are still in early growth stages, with a market share of only about 5% in payments and 1%-2% in credit in Brazil [34][35] - The introduction of the PIX payment system in Brazil has accelerated the adoption of electronic payments but may also reduce the average transaction fees for payment processors [37][39] - Meli's credit business is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing adoption of credit cards, with projections indicating a potential increase in loan balances to approximately $32 billion by 2030 [46][47] Valuation - Meli's total revenue is projected to grow from approximately $28 billion in 2025 to $72 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 21% [56][58] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve from 44% in 2025 to 50% by 2030, reflecting operational efficiencies [59][61] - Based on discounted cash flow analysis, Meli's fair valuation is estimated at around $124.7 billion, indicating a potential upside from current market prices [65][66]

Core Viewpoint - China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group Corporation (China National Foreign Trade) experienced a stock price decline of 2.03% on October 14, with a current price of 6.26 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 45.524 billion CNY [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China National Foreign Trade reported operating revenue of 50.523 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 10.37%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.947 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 10.76 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 6.698 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Market Activity - Year-to-date, the stock price of China National Foreign Trade has increased by 20.20%, but it has seen a decline of 4.13% over the last five trading days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent instance on September 29, where it recorded a net purchase of 9.7765 million CNY [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for China National Foreign Trade was 50,500, an increase of 5.04% from the previous period, with an average of 104,337 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 4.81% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 45.6223 million shares, a decrease of 13.5121 million shares from the previous period [3]

Group 1 - The core business of Yingshi Juifeng is currently the e-commerce segment, rather than the well-known video production or content creation [1] - Recent data indicates that Yingshi Juifeng's account sales in the past 30 days ranged from approximately 7.5 million to 10 million, while the official flagship store's sales were between 1 million and 2.5 million [3] - The flagship store is operated by Hangzhou Pingyi Technology Co., Ltd., which is 70% owned by Yingshi Juifeng (Hangzhou Xingao Media Co., Ltd.) [3] Group 2 - Yingshi Juifeng has made investments in three companies, including Hangzhou Pingyi Technology Co., Ltd., where it holds a 70% stake, and has a 25% stake in Hangzhou Fengtong Media Co., Ltd., as well as full ownership of Shenzhen Pingyi Technology Co., Ltd. [3]

Core Viewpoint - China National Freight Forwarding experienced a significant drop of 6.98% in stock price on September 29, with a trading volume of 5.08 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 47.487 billion yuan [1] Business Overview - The company's main business segments include professional logistics, agency and related services, and e-commerce, operating through four divisions: freight forwarding, logistics, warehousing, and terminal services [2][3] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: agency and related services 63.60%, professional logistics 26.46%, and e-commerce 9.94% [7] Dividend Information - The company's dividend yields over the past three years were 5.21%, 5.53%, and 5.42% [3] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 9.719 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.657 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [8] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 50.523 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.947 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.10% year-on-year [7][8] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 50,500, an increase of 5.04% from the previous period, with an average of 104,337 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 4.81% [7] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and E Fund Stable Income Bond A, with notable reductions in holdings [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanghai Liren Lizhuang Cosmetics Co., Ltd., is providing a guarantee for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Lily & Beauty (Hong Kong) Limited, to support its e-commerce business expansion, with a total guarantee amount of 15 million yuan, valid until June 30, 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Guarantee Details - The guarantee is necessary for the Hong Kong subsidiary to establish new overseas cross-border stores and conduct advertising on various internet platforms [2][5]. - The company has approved the guarantee amount through its audit committee and board meetings, ensuring compliance with legal regulations and internal procedures [3][6]. Group 2: Progress and Agreement Summary - As of September 2025, the company has increased the guarantee amount by 30,000 yuan, resulting in a total external guarantee balance of 30,000 yuan [4][7]. - The company maintains good control over the Hong Kong subsidiary and believes the risks associated with the guarantee are manageable and do not harm the interests of shareholders, especially minority shareholders [5][6]. Group 3: Overall Guarantee Situation - The cumulative external guarantee balance for the company and its subsidiaries is 30,000 yuan, which accounts for 0.001% of the company's latest audited net assets, with no overdue guarantees reported [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8]. Core Insights - The company's performance has significantly improved, with a notable increase in revenue and a reduction in net losses. The first half of 2025 saw total revenue of 0.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37%, and a narrowed net loss of 0.11 billion yuan compared to a loss of 0.17 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its business through acquisitions, specifically targeting the trendy toy sector. It plans to acquire approximately 27.74% of HIDDEN WOOO for 0.14 billion yuan in cash and 0.24 billion yuan in stock, which will enhance its IP matrix and support overseas expansion [2][3]. - The company has experienced a recovery across all business lines, with e-commerce and other business revenues increasing by 31% to 0.44 billion yuan, driven by enhanced promotional efforts and expansion into new e-commerce platforms [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the gross margin increased by 1 percentage point to 55.50%, while promotional costs as a percentage of revenue rose by 2 percentage points to 14.73% due to initial high costs associated with new e-commerce initiatives [2]. - The adjusted net loss rate improved by 15% year-on-year to 13.05%, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [2]. Business Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its e-commerce operations in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and the United States, with revenue growth in these regions of 145% and 297%, respectively [4][7]. - The company has launched self-operated city parks, which are expected to contribute new revenue streams alongside ticket sales and IP product sales [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to see substantial earnings growth, with EPS estimates of 0.01, 0.04, and 0.13 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 119, 30, and 10 for the same years [8][10].