证券研究报告 基础化工/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） AI发展加速液冷渗透率,液冷工质打开成长空间 分析师：骆红永 S0910523100001 2025年12月29日 本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 u AI发展带来功耗问题，液冷方案逐渐明朗。在算力需求强力驱动下，数据中心等各种服务器数量大幅增加，所带来功耗问题 日益凸显。液冷具有散热效率高、降温快、无振动、噪音小等特点，面对高功耗高密度场景，传统风冷已无法满足能耗和散 热需求，液冷成为智算中心温控解决方案必选项，广泛用于AI算力、电子终端、互联网、金融、能源交通、工业制造等领域。 数据中心（服务器）、机器人、光伏储能等新兴产业快速兴起，为液冷市场拓展新的发展机遇。2024年中国液冷服务器市场 规模达到23.7亿美元，同比增长67.0%，2025年有望达到33.9亿美元，预计2024-2029年，中国液冷服务器市场复合增长率将 达到46.8%，2029年市场规模将达到162亿美元。液冷工质也随着液冷市场需求爆发而快速增长。 u 液冷工质多种选择，氟化液前景 ...

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Group 1 - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has obtained a patent for a system utilizing a mixed gas containing ethylene and propylene, aimed at enhancing the recovery of refinery dry gas [1] - The patent, with authorization announcement number CN223587103U, was applied for on December 2024 and focuses on a system that includes a gas source, membrane separator, mixers, reactors, and separation devices [1] - The system is designed to directly utilize mixed gas to produce high-value-added products such as ethylene glycol and propylene glycol [1] Group 2 - Sinopec was established in 2000 and is primarily engaged in oil and gas extraction, with a registered capital of approximately 12.17 billion RMB [2] - The company has made investments in 268 enterprises and participated in 5000 bidding projects, holding 5000 patent records and 45 trademark records [2] - Sinopec Shanghai Engineering Company, founded in 1993, has a registered capital of 500 million RMB and has invested in 11 enterprises, also participating in 5000 bidding projects with 848 patent records [2]

Summary of Haike Xinyuan Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haike Xinyuan - **Industry**: Solvent and VC (Vinyl Carbonate) production Key Points Financial Performance and Revenue Composition - In 2024, solvent revenue is expected to account for 2/3 of total revenue, with propylene glycol making up the remaining 1/3. By 2025, solvent revenue is projected to increase to 3/4 due to enhanced production capacity at the Hubei plant [2][3] - Average sales prices for DMC, EMC, and EC products in Q3 were approximately 4,300-4,400 RMB/ton, with a decline in July and August but a recovery in September [2][4] - The container business reported a loss of about 500 RMB/ton in Q3, primarily due to falling product prices, but is expected to break even in Q4 [2][5] Market Trends and Price Projections - Solvent prices hit a low in July and August but rebounded by 100-150 RMB/ton in September, with further increases expected in October and December [2][7] - A price increase of 3%-5% is anticipated for scattered orders from October to November, with an overall price rise of over 200 RMB/ton expected in Q4 [2][7] - The global solvent effective capacity is around 2.2 million tons, with Haike Xinyuan, Shida Shenghua, and Hualu Hengsheng collectively holding about 80% market share [2][10][11] Production Capacity and Future Plans - Haike Xinyuan's current annual production capacity is 770,000 tons for solvents and 130,000 tons for alcohol products, totaling 900,000 tons [3] - The company expects to sell over 700,000 tons in 2025 and conservatively estimates sales of over 800,000 tons in 2026, with potential capacity expansion through technological upgrades or acquisitions [2][12] - The company plans to expand VC production capacity from 11,000 tons to 15,000 tons, with an expected additional annual revenue of 300 million RMB if prices remain high [3][16] VC Product Insights - VC product prices have surged from 44,500 RMB/ton to nearly 80,000 RMB/ton, with expectations of maintaining prices between 80,000 and 100,000 RMB/ton in 2026 [3][21][22] - The global demand for VC products is projected to reach 100,000-110,000 tons in 2026, with current effective capacity at about 80,000 tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [3][18] Competitive Advantages and Market Position - Haike Xinyuan has a competitive edge in cost control due to its self-sourced raw materials and has successfully passed audits from major clients like BYD [3][26] - The company is in discussions with strategic partners, including Guoxuan High-Tech, and aims to expand its customer base by increasing production capacity [3][26] Conclusion - Haike Xinyuan is positioned for growth in the solvent and VC markets, with a strong focus on capacity expansion and price recovery. The company is navigating market fluctuations effectively and is set to capitalize on increasing demand in the coming years [2][3][12][18]

2025 年第三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《关于做好上市公司2025年第三季度报告披露工作的通 知》和《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号--行业信息披露：第十三 号—化工》的要求，永悦科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025年第三季 度主要经营数据披露如下： 证券代码：603879 证券简称：永悦科技 公告编号：2025-040 永悦科技股份有限公司 | | 类别 | 2025 | 年 1-9 | 月平均 | 2024 | 年 1-9 | 月平均 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 售价（元/吨） | | | 售价（元/吨） | | | | | 工艺品树脂 | | 7,278.33 | | | 7,985.72 | | -8.86% | | UPR | 玻璃钢及其他树脂 | | 6,818.95 | | | 7,575.57 | | -9. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lihua Yihui Chemical Co., Ltd., has released its third-quarter operational data for 2025, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the information provided in the report [7]. Financial Data - The financial statements for the third quarter of 2025 have not been audited [3]. - The report includes key financial data and indicators, with a focus on the company's performance over the specified period [3][4]. Major Products and Performance - The company has detailed the production, sales, and revenue realization of its main products, which include phenolic and ketone-related products, new energy materials, specialty chemicals, and industrial gases [7][8]. - Specific product categories mentioned are phenol, acetone, isopropanol, bisphenol A, dimethyl carbonate, propylene, and hydrogen, among others [7][8]. Price Changes - The report outlines the price changes for major products and raw materials, although specific figures are not provided in the summary [9]. Other Important Information - There are no other significant events affecting the company's operations during the reporting period [9].

证券代码：603722 证券简称：阿科力 公告编号：2025-080 无锡阿科力科技股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担个别及连带法律责任。 无锡阿科力科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所 《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十三号——化工》（2022 年修订）和《关于做 好主板上市公司 2025 年第三季度报告披露工作的重要提醒》要求，现将 2025 年第三季度主要经营数据披露如下： | | | 三、报告期内无其他对公司生产经营具有重大影响的事项 以上经营数据信息来源于公司报告期内财务数据，仅为投资者及时了解公 司生产经营概况之用，敬请广大投资者理性投资，注意投资风险。 特此公告！ 无锡阿科力科技股份有限公司 | 主要产品 | 2025 | 年 1-9 | 月平均售 | 2024 | 年 1-9 | 月平均售 | 变动比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 价（元/吨） ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company reported net sales of $10 billion, reflecting sequential improvement despite industry pressures [6] - EBITDA was $868 million, lower than the same period last year but improved over Q2 [6] - Cash provided by operating activities increased by $1.6 billion sequentially, driven by working capital improvements [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Packaging and Specialty Plastics**: Net sales decreased year-over-year and sequentially due to lower downstream polymer prices and olefins volumes [13][15] - **Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure**: Net sales were down 4% year-over-year but increased sequentially due to volume gains and lower planned maintenance activity [16][17] - **Performance Materials and Coatings**: Net sales were $2.1 billion, down 6% year-over-year and 2% sequentially, impacted by pricing pressures [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global demand in the packaging market remains steady, with North America showing record domestic and export volumes [25] - The infrastructure sector faces soft market conditions across the U.S., Europe, and China, with limited affordability affecting demand [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on restoring core earnings and positioning for profitable growth during industry recovery [6][43] - Strategic actions include cost reduction initiatives targeting $1 billion in savings by 2026 and a reduction in capital expenditures [11][43] - The company is rationalizing its asset footprint to enhance competitiveness and reduce exposure to high-cost operations [36][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a cautious operating environment with subdued business investment and consumer spending due to economic uncertainty [24] - The outlook for Q4 anticipates EBITDA of approximately $725 million, with expectations of margin compression from higher feedstock costs [29][30] Other Important Information - The company completed a $3 billion strategic partnership and issued $1.4 billion in bonds to enhance financial flexibility [10][21] - The company is actively engaged in discussions with governments to mitigate impacts from anti-competitive behaviors and ensure fair trade [38][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Reconciliation of Q3 results - Management highlighted higher integrated margins and improved cost reduction efforts as key factors for exceeding expectations [50][52] Question: Industry rationalization and project cancellations - Management provided insights on global capacity rationalization, particularly in Asia and Europe, and noted potential delays in announced capacities in China [56][59] Question: Polyethylene demand and pricing - Polyethylene demand has remained stable, with strong performance in packaging applications despite weaker consumer sentiment [77] Question: CapEx outlook for 2026 - Management indicated potential CapEx of $2.5 billion for 2026, with a focus on maintenance and strategic projects [73] Question: MDI margins and construction market recovery - Management noted that MDI margins are benefiting from reduced imports due to anti-dumping measures, while the construction market requires further interest rate declines for recovery [87]

Core Viewpoint - The company Shida Shenghua is facing significant financial losses in 2025, with projected net losses ranging from 49 million to 75 million yuan, a stark contrast to the profit of 11.27 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a year-on-year decline of 534.97% to 765.77% [1] Company Summary - Shida Shenghua's core product, dimethyl carbonate, is heavily impacted by an imbalance in supply and demand within the carbonate solvent market, leading to a significant drop in prices [1] - The company has increased its market investment and R&D efforts to cope with intense competition, resulting in a rise in operating expenses [1] - Operating costs for Shida Shenghua increased by approximately 17% in the first half of 2025, surpassing the revenue growth of 14.87% [1] Industry Summary - The electrolyte industry is experiencing an oversupply across the entire value chain, from upstream lithium salts to midstream solvents, causing many companies to face a "revenue without profit" dilemma [2] - As of the end of the third quarter, the average profit for electrolytes was 1,649 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 29.61% [2] - The market is expected to see a peak in production from October to November 2025, driven by increased demand from domestic electric vehicle consumption and overseas demand due to policy changes [2] - Long-term forecasts suggest a cyclical recovery in the industry, with expectations of a new round of capacity elimination by the end of 2025 to 2026, which may improve the utilization rates of leading companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Major chemical companies including BASF, INEOS, Invista, and LANXESS are undergoing significant business adjustments, including plant closures and divestitures, in response to market demands and operational efficiency improvements [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company-Specific Actions - **Invista**: Announced the closure of its Maitland plant in Canada, affecting approximately 100 jobs. The production of DYTEK® A amine will be relocated to Texas, with a planned investment of CAD 23 million (approximately RMB 120 million) to restart hexamethylenediamine production by Q1 2025. Additionally, over USD 500 million (approximately RMB 1.797 billion) will be invested in CORDURA® brand development over the next five years [2][3]. - **BASF**: Decided to exit the hydrosulfite business, closing its production facilities in Ludwigshafen, impacting around 65 employees. This move is part of a broader strategic assessment of the production layout at the site [2][4]. - **INEOS**: Will indefinitely shut down its European production of propylene oxide (PO) and propylene glycol (PG), despite the restoration of chlorine supply to its German facility. The company has already ceased production and plans to exit the European Chemical Industry Council's working groups by 2026 [4][5]. - **LANXESS**: Plans to sell its entire 40.94% stake in Envalior to its partner Advent International for a base purchase price of EUR 1.2 billion. This sale is part of a broader strategy to exit the polymer market, having already divested its polyurethane business for EUR 500 million [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The chemical industry is facing significant operational changes, with major players closing facilities and shifting production to enhance efficiency and meet growing demand for specific chemicals [1][2][4]. - The trend of divestitures and plant closures indicates a strategic shift within the industry, as companies adapt to market conditions and focus on core competencies [1][5].