证券研究报告|公司深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 4 日 [Table_Title] 布局省际游轮业务，迎接成长新纪元 [Table_Title2] 三峡旅游(002627) [Table_Summary] ► 三峡游轮：立足"两峡一坝"旅游产品体系，省际 游轮项目即将落地 三峡旅游是宜昌市旅游行业头部企业，过往业务重心包括乘 用车经销及服务业务、旅游综合服务、供应链管理业务三 块，23 年 12 月通过出售股权形式剥离资金密集型的乘用车 经销及服务业务、供应链管理业务后，旅游综合业务成为主 业，观光游轮成为收入/毛利主要支撑点。观光游轮业务主 要基于"两峡一坝"运营一日游旅游产品，包括"长江夜 游"、"升船机"、"高峡平湖"等匹配多层次观光游览需求的 产品体系，根据 25 年半年报，截至 25H1 末公司旗下游船数 量已达 32 艘，其中两坝一峡豪华观光游轮 6 艘、其他游船 24 艘、在建省际豪华游轮 2 艘，24 年观光游轮业务贡献收 入 2.06 亿元/同比+17.73%，较 19 年同期+135.01%。 ► 银发群体需求匹配：省际游轮产品有效解决中老年 客群出行痛点， ...

证券研究报告|公司深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 4 日 [Table_Title] 布局省际游轮业务，迎接成长新纪元 [Table_Title2] 三峡旅游(002627) [Table_Summary] ► 三峡游轮：立足"两峡一坝"旅游产品体系，省际 游轮项目即将落地 三峡旅游是宜昌市旅游行业头部企业，过往业务重心包括乘 用车经销及服务业务、旅游综合服务、供应链管理业务三 块，23 年 12 月通过出售股权形式剥离资金密集型的乘用车 经销及服务业务、供应链管理业务后，旅游综合业务成为主 业，观光游轮成为收入/毛利主要支撑点。观光游轮业务主 要基于"两峡一坝"运营一日游旅游产品，包括"长江夜 游"、"升船机"、"高峡平湖"等匹配多层次观光游览需求的 产品体系，根据 25 年半年报，截至 25H1 末公司旗下游船数 量已达 32 艘，其中两坝一峡豪华观光游轮 6 艘、其他游船 24 艘、在建省际豪华游轮 2 艘，24 年观光游轮业务贡献收 入 2.06 亿元/同比+17.73%，较 19 年同期+135.01%。 ► 银发群体需求匹配：省际游轮产品有效解决中老年 客群出行痛点， ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company, targeting a price of RMB 9.45 based on a 45x PE for 2026 [7][30]. Core Insights - The company is expected to leverage its core resources from the "Two Dams and One Gorge" to transition from sightseeing to vacation experiences, enhancing overall customer transaction values and profit levels. The planned inter-provincial cruise project is anticipated to be a new growth driver, with existing business recovery and cruise project volume increase likely to elevate profit and valuation [7][30]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 112 million, RMB 153 million, and RMB 206 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with EPS of RMB 0.16, RMB 0.21, and RMB 0.28 [7][30]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline to RMB 741 million in 2024, followed by a gradual increase to RMB 1,326 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.1% from 2025 to 2027 [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to show significant growth, with a forecast of RMB 130 million in 2023, declining slightly to RMB 118 million in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 206 million by 2027, indicating a robust recovery trajectory [2][5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 31.35% in 2024 to 33.82% in 2027, driven by increased operational efficiency and higher-value offerings [10]. Demand Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 286 million from tourism services, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.20%. The number of cruise passengers reached 1.25 million, a 10.96% increase compared to the previous year, indicating strong demand recovery [31][14]. - Factors contributing to this growth include enhanced marketing efforts, increased product offerings, and improved operational capacity, which have collectively boosted market recognition and customer engagement [14][31]. Supply Analysis - The regulatory environment has tightened, with the Yangtze River Authority implementing strict controls on new inter-provincial passenger ship transport enterprises, which stabilizes competition and enhances supply constraints [32][20]. - The company plans to construct and operate four large leisure cruise ships, with the first two expected to launch in June and December 2026, and the remaining two in June 2028. This initiative aims to capitalize on the controlled supply environment and enhance profit flexibility [33][21]. Conclusion - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning within the tourism sector, emphasizing its potential for growth through innovative offerings and regulatory advantages. The combination of a solid customer base, new cruise projects, and a favorable market environment positions the company for significant future profitability and valuation enhancement [7][30][12].

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The company engaged in various investor relations activities, including meetings with multiple securities firms and funds [2][3][4] Group 2: Project Timeline and Financials - The first two inter-provincial cruise ships are under construction, with the first expected to be operational by June 2026 and the second by December 2026 [4] - The total planned investment for the inter-provincial cruise project is 1.063 billion yuan, with 720 million yuan raised through non-public offerings [6] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The cruise products will feature five significant characteristics: advanced hardware, exceptional service experience, unique cultural immersion, optimized itinerary arrangements, and comprehensive scenic views of the Three Gorges [7] Group 4: Future Expansion Plans - The company aims to become a leader in China's inland cruise tourism through self-built inter-provincial cruises and external expansions to join the top tier of luxury cruise operators [5] Group 5: Transportation Improvements - Recent enhancements in transportation infrastructure, including the opening of the T2 terminal at Sanxia Airport and the upcoming high-speed rail projects, are expected to facilitate tourism growth [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the hotel and duty-free sectors, anticipating a rebound in these industries [4][3]. Core Insights - The social service index has increased by 9.00% year-to-date as of October 31, 2025, ranking 20th among 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan classification [4][40]. - The hotel industry is experiencing growth driven by a booming holiday tourism market, although the business market remains challenging [4][11]. - The duty-free sector is benefiting from policy adjustments aimed at enhancing consumer shopping experiences in Hainan [4][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Hotel Expansion and Market Dynamics - The hotel industry in China continues to expand, with Shoulu Hotel opening 1,051 new stores in the first three quarters of 2025, a 10.4% increase from the previous year [10]. - The overall hotel occupancy rate is recovering but remains under pressure due to ample supply, with a shift towards brand and experience-focused strategies [11][14]. 2. Scenic Area Performance - Scenic areas are seeing stable visitor numbers, particularly in major tourist destinations, while ancient towns face challenges [22]. - Notable revenue growth has been observed in companies like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiu Hua Tourism, with the latter seeing a 19.51% increase in visitor numbers [27][28]. 3. Recruitment Services and Market Trends - The recruitment market remains stable, with AI tools helping to reduce costs for human resource companies [33]. - The overall hiring activity has not significantly improved, influenced by corporate profit declines and cost-cutting strategies [33]. 4. Duty-Free Policy Adjustments - Recent adjustments to Hainan's duty-free shopping policies aim to diversify consumer options and enhance the shopping experience [37][38]. - The changes include expanding the range of duty-free goods and allowing more domestic products to be sold in duty-free stores [37]. 5. Social Service Sector Performance - The social service sector has shown positive absolute returns in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 18.08% increase in revenue across selected companies [51]. - The professional services and tourism sectors have experienced significant revenue growth, while the hotel and duty-free sectors have faced declines compared to the previous year [51]. 6. Company Valuation and Stock Performance - The report highlights key companies in the hotel, duty-free, and scenic area sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4][40]. - Notable companies include Shoulu Hotel, China Duty Free Group, and Sanxia Tourism, which have shown varying performance metrics [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations after excluding the impact of a one-time tax payment, with a revenue increase of 9.48% year-on-year [6] - The core cruise business showed strong growth, with a 19.51% increase in total visitors, indicating robust demand [6] - The company is advancing its inter-provincial cruise project, which is expected to open new growth opportunities [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 609 million yuan, with a net profit of 86 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23.29% due to non-operational factors [6] - The company expects total revenue to reach 805 million yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 111 million yuan, down from previous estimates [5][6] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is estimated at 32.8%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 3.6% [5] Business Development - The company is focusing on high-value inter-provincial cruise markets, with plans to build four luxury cruise ships, enhancing its growth potential [6] - The backlog of contracts has significantly increased, indicating strong future revenue assurance [6] - The company aims to leverage both existing day tour services and new inter-provincial cruise offerings to drive future growth [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][7]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from a traditional road passenger transport enterprise to a leader in the Yangtze River Three Gorges cruise tourism sector, focusing on its core tourism business [6][15]. - The company has successfully optimized its product offerings, including the "Two Dams and One Gorge" and "High Gorge and Flat Lake" tours, which are integral to its tourism service system [6][38]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with a target market capitalization of 8 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 73% from the current market value [7][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition from Transport to Tourism - The company has undergone a strategic transformation, focusing on tourism and gradually divesting from capital-intensive businesses like passenger car services [6][29]. - The company has established a comprehensive tourism service system, enhancing its competitive edge in the Three Gorges tourism market [6][15]. 2. Product Development and Market Position - The core products include "Two Dams and One Gorge," "High Gorge and Flat Lake," "Three Gorges Family Special Line," and "Yangtze River Night Tour," which cater to diverse customer needs [6][38]. - The company has introduced new vessels and upgraded existing products to enhance customer experience and increase ticket prices, reflecting a strong market demand for high-quality tourism experiences [6][66]. 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to generate total revenue of 741 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 118 million yuan, showing a recovery trend in its core tourism business [5][24]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with significant growth expected in the tourism segment [5][24]. 4. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The Yangtze River cruise market is characterized by limited supply due to strict regulatory controls, which favors high-end luxury cruises over economy options [6][9]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for luxury cruise experiences, supported by its strategic investments in new vessels and service enhancements [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Yangtze River Three Gorges inter-provincial cruise market is currently in a critical phase of recovery and transformation, characterized by "demand rebound, structural optimization, intensified competition, and accelerated innovation" [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company plans to operate four inter-provincial cruise ships, with the first two expected to launch in June and December 2026, and the second batch in June 2028 [1] - As of the end of 2024, there will be 12 inter-provincial cruise companies in the Yangtze River Three Gorges region, with a total of 47 cruise ships averaging 15.27 years in age, and a projected cumulative passenger volume of 1.2359 million [1] - The company operates the core tourism product "Two Dams and One Gorge," which is exclusive and does not compete with inter-provincial cruises, positioning Yichang as a major hub for inter-provincial vacation cruises [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - According to the feasibility study, the four inter-provincial cruise ships are expected to generate an operating income of 395 million yuan and a net profit of 100 million yuan in the year they reach full production, effectively creating a new revenue stream for the company [1] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company has established a comprehensive tourism port network centered around the Three Gorges Cruise Center, supported by Yichang Port and other ports, making it a key starting point for inter-provincial vacation cruises [2] - The first two inter-provincial cruise ships are the largest green low-carbon new energy inland cruise ships in China, featuring innovative technologies such as a hybrid power system and intelligent auxiliary driving systems [2] - The company has autonomous pricing power and focuses on developing standardized, mid-range, and customized high-end products to enhance revenue through diversified product offerings [2] Group 4: Future Plans - The company aims to expand its cruise industry scale by accelerating the construction of inter-provincial cruise ships and developing vacation cruise tourism, while also pursuing external growth to join the ranks of leading luxury cruise operators [2]

Market Environment - The inter-provincial cruise market on the Yangtze River is currently in a phase of recovery and transformation, characterized by "demand recovery, structural optimization, intensified competition, and accelerated innovation" [2] - As of the end of 2024, there are 12 inter-provincial cruise companies in the Yangtze River Three Gorges area, with 47 vessels averaging 15.27 years in age and a total capacity of 19,453 passengers [2] Revenue and Profit Expectations - According to the feasibility study, the operation of 4 new inter-provincial cruise vessels is expected to generate an annual revenue of CNY 395 million and a net profit of CNY 100 million in the year of full operation [4] - The project has a post-tax dynamic investment payback period of 11.90 years and a post-tax internal rate of return of 10.11%, indicating good investment returns [4] Competitive Advantages - The company plans to operate 4 inter-provincial cruise vessels, with the first two expected to launch in June and December 2026, and the second batch in June 2028 [5] - The company has over 20 years of experience in water transport and tourism services, providing a strong operational management advantage [5] - A well-structured tourism port network supports the company’s operations, with the Three Gorges Cruise Center as the main hub [5] - The company has developed a comprehensive service system for inter-provincial cruises, enhancing operational efficiency [5] - The company has a professional marketing team and a mature marketing system that combines remote, local, and online marketing strategies [6][7] Pricing Strategy - The company has the autonomy to set prices for its cruise products, with adjustments made based on service quality, cost changes, and partnerships with distributors [8] - The focus is on developing a diverse product range to enhance value rather than frequent price increases [8] Dividend Policy - The company has consistently returned profits to investors, with a cash dividend of CNY 68.94 million in 2024, representing 58.63% of the net profit [9] - The cash distribution ratio has been increased from 10% to 30% of distributable profits, with a commitment to distribute at least 50% of the average annual distributable profits over the last three years [9] Strategic Goals - The company aims to become a leader in the Yangtze River Three Gorges tourism sector and a pioneer in China's inland cruise tourism [10] - Strategies include leveraging the parent company's resources for mergers and partnerships, and expanding the cruise industry through self-built and external growth initiatives [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights how Hubei province is leveraging its cultural and historical resources to boost the cultural tourism industry and stimulate consumer spending [1][3]. Group 1: Cultural Tourism Development - Yunmeng County Museum has undergone renovations, adding immersive exhibition halls and facilities that enhance visitor experience, leading to a cultural revival [3]. - The museum's cultural products, such as toys and sachets, have generated over 4 million yuan in revenue from January to July, attracting 20,000 educational tour groups [3][9]. - The "Two Dams and One Gorge" tourism project in Yichang has seen nearly 1 million visitors during the summer, marking a 30% increase year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Night Economy - The night economy in Hubei is thriving, with electric cruise ships offering scenic views along the Yangtze River, enhancing the overall tourist experience [3]. - The Tang City scenic area in Xiangyang features a vibrant night atmosphere with performances and modern technology, attracting a significant number of nighttime visitors [5][7]. - The "Wudang Dream" park in Shiyan has welcomed 600,000 visitors since its opening, generating 20 million yuan in revenue through immersive performances [9]. Group 3: Overall Tourism Statistics - Hubei province received 547 million tourists and generated approximately 571.7 billion yuan in tourism revenue from January to July, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.61% and 16.07% respectively [9].