首次覆盖: 战略蓝图清晰，省际游轮打开成长空间 三峡旅游(002627) 三峡旅游首次覆盖报告 本报告导读： 需求回暖与公司省际度假游轮项目推进，有望打开业务新增量与盈利弹性。 投资要点： 风险提示：消费景气波动风险、运营爬坡风险、政策监管与安全运 营风险。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,600 | 741 | 827 | 981 | 1,326 | | (+/-)% | -16.1% | -53.7% | 11.5% | 18.7% | 35.1% | | 净利润(归母) | 130 | 118 | 112 | 153 | 206 | | (+/-)% | 2,848.6% | -9.3% | -4.5% | 36.2% | 35.0% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.28 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% ...

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The company engaged in various investor relations activities, including meetings with multiple securities firms and funds [2][3][4] Group 2: Project Timeline and Financials - The first two inter-provincial cruise ships are under construction, with the first expected to be operational by June 2026 and the second by December 2026 [4] - The total planned investment for the inter-provincial cruise project is 1.063 billion yuan, with 720 million yuan raised through non-public offerings [6] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The cruise products will feature five significant characteristics: advanced hardware, exceptional service experience, unique cultural immersion, optimized itinerary arrangements, and comprehensive scenic views of the Three Gorges [7] Group 4: Future Expansion Plans - The company aims to become a leader in China's inland cruise tourism through self-built inter-provincial cruises and external expansions to join the top tier of luxury cruise operators [5] Group 5: Transportation Improvements - Recent enhancements in transportation infrastructure, including the opening of the T2 terminal at Sanxia Airport and the upcoming high-speed rail projects, are expected to facilitate tourism growth [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the hotel and duty-free sectors, anticipating a rebound in these industries [4][3]. Core Insights - The social service index has increased by 9.00% year-to-date as of October 31, 2025, ranking 20th among 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan classification [4][40]. - The hotel industry is experiencing growth driven by a booming holiday tourism market, although the business market remains challenging [4][11]. - The duty-free sector is benefiting from policy adjustments aimed at enhancing consumer shopping experiences in Hainan [4][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Hotel Expansion and Market Dynamics - The hotel industry in China continues to expand, with Shoulu Hotel opening 1,051 new stores in the first three quarters of 2025, a 10.4% increase from the previous year [10]. - The overall hotel occupancy rate is recovering but remains under pressure due to ample supply, with a shift towards brand and experience-focused strategies [11][14]. 2. Scenic Area Performance - Scenic areas are seeing stable visitor numbers, particularly in major tourist destinations, while ancient towns face challenges [22]. - Notable revenue growth has been observed in companies like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiu Hua Tourism, with the latter seeing a 19.51% increase in visitor numbers [27][28]. 3. Recruitment Services and Market Trends - The recruitment market remains stable, with AI tools helping to reduce costs for human resource companies [33]. - The overall hiring activity has not significantly improved, influenced by corporate profit declines and cost-cutting strategies [33]. 4. Duty-Free Policy Adjustments - Recent adjustments to Hainan's duty-free shopping policies aim to diversify consumer options and enhance the shopping experience [37][38]. - The changes include expanding the range of duty-free goods and allowing more domestic products to be sold in duty-free stores [37]. 5. Social Service Sector Performance - The social service sector has shown positive absolute returns in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 18.08% increase in revenue across selected companies [51]. - The professional services and tourism sectors have experienced significant revenue growth, while the hotel and duty-free sectors have faced declines compared to the previous year [51]. 6. Company Valuation and Stock Performance - The report highlights key companies in the hotel, duty-free, and scenic area sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4][40]. - Notable companies include Shoulu Hotel, China Duty Free Group, and Sanxia Tourism, which have shown varying performance metrics [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations after excluding the impact of a one-time tax payment, with a revenue increase of 9.48% year-on-year [6] - The core cruise business showed strong growth, with a 19.51% increase in total visitors, indicating robust demand [6] - The company is advancing its inter-provincial cruise project, which is expected to open new growth opportunities [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 609 million yuan, with a net profit of 86 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23.29% due to non-operational factors [6] - The company expects total revenue to reach 805 million yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 111 million yuan, down from previous estimates [5][6] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is estimated at 32.8%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 3.6% [5] Business Development - The company is focusing on high-value inter-provincial cruise markets, with plans to build four luxury cruise ships, enhancing its growth potential [6] - The backlog of contracts has significantly increased, indicating strong future revenue assurance [6] - The company aims to leverage both existing day tour services and new inter-provincial cruise offerings to drive future growth [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][7]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from a traditional road passenger transport enterprise to a leader in the Yangtze River Three Gorges cruise tourism sector, focusing on its core tourism business [6][15]. - The company has successfully optimized its product offerings, including the "Two Dams and One Gorge" and "High Gorge and Flat Lake" tours, which are integral to its tourism service system [6][38]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with a target market capitalization of 8 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 73% from the current market value [7][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition from Transport to Tourism - The company has undergone a strategic transformation, focusing on tourism and gradually divesting from capital-intensive businesses like passenger car services [6][29]. - The company has established a comprehensive tourism service system, enhancing its competitive edge in the Three Gorges tourism market [6][15]. 2. Product Development and Market Position - The core products include "Two Dams and One Gorge," "High Gorge and Flat Lake," "Three Gorges Family Special Line," and "Yangtze River Night Tour," which cater to diverse customer needs [6][38]. - The company has introduced new vessels and upgraded existing products to enhance customer experience and increase ticket prices, reflecting a strong market demand for high-quality tourism experiences [6][66]. 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to generate total revenue of 741 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 118 million yuan, showing a recovery trend in its core tourism business [5][24]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with significant growth expected in the tourism segment [5][24]. 4. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The Yangtze River cruise market is characterized by limited supply due to strict regulatory controls, which favors high-end luxury cruises over economy options [6][9]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for luxury cruise experiences, supported by its strategic investments in new vessels and service enhancements [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Yangtze River Three Gorges inter-provincial cruise market is currently in a critical phase of recovery and transformation, characterized by "demand rebound, structural optimization, intensified competition, and accelerated innovation" [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company plans to operate four inter-provincial cruise ships, with the first two expected to launch in June and December 2026, and the second batch in June 2028 [1] - As of the end of 2024, there will be 12 inter-provincial cruise companies in the Yangtze River Three Gorges region, with a total of 47 cruise ships averaging 15.27 years in age, and a projected cumulative passenger volume of 1.2359 million [1] - The company operates the core tourism product "Two Dams and One Gorge," which is exclusive and does not compete with inter-provincial cruises, positioning Yichang as a major hub for inter-provincial vacation cruises [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - According to the feasibility study, the four inter-provincial cruise ships are expected to generate an operating income of 395 million yuan and a net profit of 100 million yuan in the year they reach full production, effectively creating a new revenue stream for the company [1] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company has established a comprehensive tourism port network centered around the Three Gorges Cruise Center, supported by Yichang Port and other ports, making it a key starting point for inter-provincial vacation cruises [2] - The first two inter-provincial cruise ships are the largest green low-carbon new energy inland cruise ships in China, featuring innovative technologies such as a hybrid power system and intelligent auxiliary driving systems [2] - The company has autonomous pricing power and focuses on developing standardized, mid-range, and customized high-end products to enhance revenue through diversified product offerings [2] Group 4: Future Plans - The company aims to expand its cruise industry scale by accelerating the construction of inter-provincial cruise ships and developing vacation cruise tourism, while also pursuing external growth to join the ranks of leading luxury cruise operators [2]

Market Environment - The inter-provincial cruise market on the Yangtze River is currently in a phase of recovery and transformation, characterized by "demand recovery, structural optimization, intensified competition, and accelerated innovation" [2] - As of the end of 2024, there are 12 inter-provincial cruise companies in the Yangtze River Three Gorges area, with 47 vessels averaging 15.27 years in age and a total capacity of 19,453 passengers [2] Revenue and Profit Expectations - According to the feasibility study, the operation of 4 new inter-provincial cruise vessels is expected to generate an annual revenue of CNY 395 million and a net profit of CNY 100 million in the year of full operation [4] - The project has a post-tax dynamic investment payback period of 11.90 years and a post-tax internal rate of return of 10.11%, indicating good investment returns [4] Competitive Advantages - The company plans to operate 4 inter-provincial cruise vessels, with the first two expected to launch in June and December 2026, and the second batch in June 2028 [5] - The company has over 20 years of experience in water transport and tourism services, providing a strong operational management advantage [5] - A well-structured tourism port network supports the company’s operations, with the Three Gorges Cruise Center as the main hub [5] - The company has developed a comprehensive service system for inter-provincial cruises, enhancing operational efficiency [5] - The company has a professional marketing team and a mature marketing system that combines remote, local, and online marketing strategies [6][7] Pricing Strategy - The company has the autonomy to set prices for its cruise products, with adjustments made based on service quality, cost changes, and partnerships with distributors [8] - The focus is on developing a diverse product range to enhance value rather than frequent price increases [8] Dividend Policy - The company has consistently returned profits to investors, with a cash dividend of CNY 68.94 million in 2024, representing 58.63% of the net profit [9] - The cash distribution ratio has been increased from 10% to 30% of distributable profits, with a commitment to distribute at least 50% of the average annual distributable profits over the last three years [9] Strategic Goals - The company aims to become a leader in the Yangtze River Three Gorges tourism sector and a pioneer in China's inland cruise tourism [10] - Strategies include leveraging the parent company's resources for mergers and partnerships, and expanding the cruise industry through self-built and external growth initiatives [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights how Hubei province is leveraging its cultural and historical resources to boost the cultural tourism industry and stimulate consumer spending [1][3]. Group 1: Cultural Tourism Development - Yunmeng County Museum has undergone renovations, adding immersive exhibition halls and facilities that enhance visitor experience, leading to a cultural revival [3]. - The museum's cultural products, such as toys and sachets, have generated over 4 million yuan in revenue from January to July, attracting 20,000 educational tour groups [3][9]. - The "Two Dams and One Gorge" tourism project in Yichang has seen nearly 1 million visitors during the summer, marking a 30% increase year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Night Economy - The night economy in Hubei is thriving, with electric cruise ships offering scenic views along the Yangtze River, enhancing the overall tourist experience [3]. - The Tang City scenic area in Xiangyang features a vibrant night atmosphere with performances and modern technology, attracting a significant number of nighttime visitors [5][7]. - The "Wudang Dream" park in Shiyan has welcomed 600,000 visitors since its opening, generating 20 million yuan in revenue through immersive performances [9]. Group 3: Overall Tourism Statistics - Hubei province received 547 million tourists and generated approximately 571.7 billion yuan in tourism revenue from January to July, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.61% and 16.07% respectively [9].

Group 1 - The article highlights the revitalization of cultural tourism in Hubei, showcasing how local resources are leveraged to boost consumption and attract visitors [1][3] - Yunmeng County Museum has undergone renovations, adding immersive exhibition halls and facilities, which have significantly increased cultural product sales, generating over 4 million yuan in revenue from January to July [3][4] - The night economy in Hubei is thriving, with projects like "Two Dams and One Gorge" attracting nearly one million tourists during the summer, marking a 30% increase year-on-year [4] Group 2 - The Xiangyang Tang City scenic area features a blend of traditional performances and modern technology, with 60% of its 1.03 million visitors in the first half of 2025 attending at night [5][7] - The "Wudang Dream" park in Shiyan has welcomed 600,000 visitors since its opening, generating 20 million yuan in revenue through dynamic cultural presentations [9] - Hubei's tourism sector has seen significant growth, with 547 million visitors and a total tourism revenue of approximately 571.7 billion yuan from January to July, reflecting year-on-year increases of 14.61% and 16.07% respectively [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the development of the cultural tourism industry in Hubei, showcasing how local resources and historical heritage are leveraged to boost consumption and attract visitors [1][2]. Group 1: Cultural Tourism Development - Yunmeng County Museum has undergone renovations, adding immersive exhibition halls and facilities that enhance visitor experience, leading to a cultural revenue of over 4 million yuan from January to July [2]. - The integration of cultural elements into tourism experiences has increased visitor interest in cultural souvenirs, with 20,000 students visiting the museum for educational purposes, positively impacting local dining and accommodation sectors [2]. Group 2: Night Economy - The night economy in Hubei is thriving, with electric cruise ships like "Yangtze River Three Gorges No. 1" attracting tourists, showcasing local landmarks illuminated at night [3][4]. - The "Two Dams and One Gorge" cruise project has seen nearly 1 million visitors during the summer, marking a 30% increase year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The use of modern technology, such as 3D projections and immersive experiences, is transforming traditional performances into dynamic interactions, enhancing visitor engagement [7][9]. - The "Wudang Dream" park has welcomed 600,000 visitors since its opening, generating 20 million yuan in revenue, demonstrating the financial viability of integrating technology into cultural presentations [9]. Group 4: Overall Tourism Statistics - Hubei received 547 million visitors and generated approximately 571.7 billion yuan in tourism revenue from January to July, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.61% and 16.07% respectively [9].