证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 保险行业 11 月保费：产寿单月保费增速均有 改善，继续看好寿险开门红表现 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：长端利率趋势性下行；新单增长不及预期。 2025 年 12 月 27 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 caok@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 2024/12/27 2025/4/27 2025/8/26 2025/12/25 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 11 月单月人身险公司保费降幅收窄，继续看好 2026 年负债端增长。1） 2025 年 1-11 月人身险原保费 44206 亿元，同比+9.2%，规模保费 49969 亿元，同比+8.4%。2）11 月单月人身险公司原保费规模达 1548 亿元， 同比-2.4%，降幅较 10 月 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market fundamentals and expectations are misaligned, particularly affecting the technology sector due to profit-taking pressures and negative news, leading to increased volatility. The domestic demand sector is struggling with weak fundamental data, making dividend stocks a relatively beneficial alternative choice [1][3][6]. - The domestic credit cycle is experiencing fluctuations or a potential downturn. If policy measures in Q4 are insufficient, a phase of credit contraction may occur. Foreign investment in the Chinese market shows divergence, suggesting a focus on sectors that can provide credit expansion, such as technology innovation and dividend stocks [1][3][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - The macro environment appears deflationary overall, but localized liquidity excess is causing valuation disparities in the secondary markets for technology and consumption. Effective demand is insufficient, primarily determined by the credit cycle [1][5]. - Looking ahead, the credit cycle may experience fluctuations or slowdowns due to high base effects, real estate drag, and the pace of policy implementation. It is essential to seek sectors that can provide credit expansion, such as technology innovation and dividend stocks [1][6][10]. - The Hang Seng Index is projected to reach a benchmark level between 28,000 and 29,000 points by 2026, suggesting a "barbell" strategy combining dividend stocks and AI-related internet giants to balance volatility [1][8][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - Chinese residents' personal medical and health expenditure is significantly higher than that of developed countries, with a 33.6% share of total health expenditure in 2022. This creates space for the development of commercial health insurance, although challenges such as low market share and insufficient coverage of out-of-pocket expenses need to be addressed [15][16][17]. - The development of commercial health insurance is hindered by several issues, including low market share (4%-7%), inadequate coverage of out-of-pocket expenses, and insufficient cooperation between the medical service system and commercial insurance [17][18]. - To promote the development of commercial health insurance, external forces such as the Medical Insurance Bureau and financial regulatory authorities need to intervene through reforms and policy adjustments to ensure basic medical insurance returns to its fundamental role [2][19][20]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - In the current credit cycle context, it is advisable to focus on sectors that can provide credit expansion, such as technology innovation and dividend stocks, while also considering the need for further monetary easing to address the gap between costs and returns [9][11][12]. - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, balancing dividend stocks with sectors benefiting from AI and innovation, while also being mindful of market conditions and the timing of policy interventions [12][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a decline in the premium scale of life insurance companies in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, attributed to a shift in focus towards preparations for the 2026 "opening red" campaign [1][2] - For the period from January to October 2025, the original premium of life insurance reached 42,519 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while the total premium was 48,010 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the market demand remains strong, with the expected growth in new single premiums due to the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [2][5] Group 2 - In October, the health insurance premium showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5%, although the growth rate decreased by 2.8 percentage points compared to September [3] - The health insurance sector's share reached 21% by the end of October, up 0.4 percentage points from the end of September, indicating a positive trend in the market [3] - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission's recent guidelines are expected to stimulate growth in the health insurance market by supporting various product developments [3] Group 3 - The property insurance sector experienced a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in October, with both auto and non-auto insurance premiums decreasing [4] - The auto insurance premium growth turned negative in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year [4] - Non-auto insurance premiums also saw a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.4% in October, reflecting pressures from regulatory changes and market conditions [4] Group 4 - The report notes improvements in both the liability and asset sides of the insurance companies, with significant upward potential in valuations [5] - The anticipated optimization of liability costs due to a shift in product offerings and a potential recovery in long-term interest rates could alleviate pressure on investment returns [5] - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with estimated valuations for 2025 ranging from 0.55 to 0.94 times PEV and 1.07 to 2.00 times PB, indicating a historical low [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - In October 2025, the premium income for life insurance companies decreased, but the pre-sale for the "opening red" period is progressing steadily, indicating a positive outlook for new policy premium growth [5] - The total original premium for life insurance from January to October 2025 reached 425.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while the scale premium was 480.10 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates that market demand remains strong, with the attractiveness of insurance products still evident compared to bank deposits, supporting optimistic expectations for new policy premium growth [5] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - In October 2025, the original premium scale for life insurance companies was 149.1 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to companies focusing on preparations for the 2026 "opening red" period [5] - The new investment contributions from policyholders increased by 2% year-on-year, with unit-linked insurance seeing a 17% increase [5] Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in October 2025 increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total year-to-date increase of 2.3% [5] - The report notes that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission's recent guidelines are expected to stimulate growth in the health insurance market [5] Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums in October 2025 decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with both auto and non-auto insurance experiencing declines [5] - The report highlights that the growth in auto insurance premiums is expected to be supported by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [5] Financial Performance - The report indicates that both liabilities and assets are continuously improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5] - The estimated valuation for the insurance sector as of November 28, 2025, is between 0.55-0.94 times PEV and 1.07-2.00 times PB, which is considered historically low [5]